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FAA Attachment 1 to RMA HDBK-006C Capacity, Delay, and Availability Categorization for NAS
Services and Systems
Version 1.17
U.S. Department of Transportation
Federal Aviation Administration
Attachment 1 to RMA HDBK-006C
Capacity, Delay, and Availability
Categorization for NAS Services and Systems
November 19, 2015
Version 1.17
Select Sections from ANG-B White Paper
Federal Aviation Administration
800 Independence Avenue, SW
Washington, DC 20591
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ABSTRACT
Currently National Airspace System (NAS) requirements are assigned to one of four availability
categories based on the criticality of the service the requirement supports. However there is no
method for delineating the criticality between Efficiency-Critical and Essential NAS services.
Additionally NAS level requirements are overly restrictive by designating NAS services as
Efficiency-Critical for the entire NAS. A primary focus of this white paper is to present a
methodology for delineating Essential and Efficiency-Critical service level requirements on a
site by site or area by area basis.
The original release of this whitepaper also examined enterprise Reliability, Maintainability,
Availability (RMA) aspects of leased NAS services as well as the use of FAA-HDBK-006B
Availability categories to analyze the consequences of major outages caused by unpredictable
events.
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Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 4
UNDERSTANDING THE PROBLEM ........................................................................... 5
2.1 Contributors to Availability ................................................................................................ 6
RMA RELATED NAS FACILITY CHARACTERISTICS AFFECTING
CAPACITY ................................................................................................................................ 9
3.1 Role of Demand ................................................................................................................ 10
3.1.1 Role of Delay ................................................................................................................. 11
3.1.2 Economic Impact ........................................................................................................... 13
3.1.3 Other Contributing Factors ............................................................................................ 13
ENTERPRISE AND LEASED SERVICES .................................................................. 14
USING AVAILABILITY HIERARCHY TO STUDY VULNERABILITIES .......... 15
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................ 16
6.1 Preliminary Economic Impact Graphs .............................................................................. 17
References ......................................................................................................................... 19
Appendix A DEFINITIONS ............................................................................................... 20
Appendix B APPLICABLE DOCUMENTS ..................................................................... 21
B.1 Specifications, Standards, and Handbooks ....................................................................... 21
Appendix C ATCT DATA FOR CLUSTER ANALYSIS ................................................ 22
Appendix D LEASED FLIGHT SERVICE PERFORMANCE MEASURES ............... 24
Appendix E ECONOMIC COST FACTORS ................................................................... 25
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INTRODUCTION
This whitepaper discusses methodologies for prescribing appropriate and achievable Reliability,
Maintainability, Availability (RMA) requirements for the National Airspace System (NAS)
Enterprise and individual Air Traffic Control (ATC) systems and facilities. This whitepaper
release only covers one of the three original focus areas; methods for delineating Essential and
Efficiency-Critical criticality designations for NAS services, and relating them to impacts on
NAS capacity.
.
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UNDERSTANDING THE PROBLEM
The NAS Requirements Document (NAS RD-2013) defines Capacity as: “The number of aircraft
that can be accommodated in a given time period by the system or one of its components.” The
RD does not impose any particular capacity metrics, but does designate numerous requirements
associated with maintaining capacity as “Efficiency-Critical”.
This definition of Capacity implies that a system or facility operating at or below that limit
imposes no delay on aircraft. Delays resulting from lack of capacity are a major economic factor
in airline operations and are well documented. Proper selection of systems, infrastructure, and
system reliability can reduce the contribution of NAS Services to delays due to capacity
reductions.
The NAS is comprised of a complex network of ATC facilities servicing unevenly distributed
air traffic demand. Since the traffic is non-uniform, some ATC facilities are more critical than
others. A loss of service at one facility may have a detrimental effect on the NAS, while a loss at
another may be trivial. The following are NAS-RD criticality categories used to classify the
consequences of service reduction or loss on NAS operations:
Safety Critical – A key service in the protection of human life. Loss of a Safety-Critical
service increases the risk in the loss of human life.
Efficiency Critical– A key service that is used in present operation of the NAS. Loss of
an Efficiency Critical Service has a major impact in the present operational capacity.1
Essential – A service that if lost would significantly raise the risk associated with
providing efficient NAS operations.
Routine – A service which, if lost, would have a minor impact on the risk associated with
providing safe and efficient NAS operations.
NAS-RD criticality categories are assigned based on the consequence of risk incurred when a
NAS service is lost. This risk is assessed during the transition period that occurs when a
service is lost. During this period, ATC personnel transition to pre-established manual
procedures for the service reducing capacity. This transition period is illustrated by Figure
2-1.
During the transition period an increased risk to either safety or capacity can occur. Safety risk
depends on whether service loss poses an increased risk to loss of life. If so, the service is
designated Safety-Critical and the system and infrastructure supporting the service must
require a high availability. The impact of a service loss on efficiency determines the severity
of a loss of service and determines the designated NAS criticality category.
Multiple factors can be used to assess the severity of a loss of service including the air traffic
demand at the facility or area where the outage occurs and the intricacies of operations,
airspace complexity, and regional dependencies. When delineating Essential and Efficiency-
Critical services the potential for delay propagation needs to be assessed.
1 In the RMA context, Efficiency-Critical is generally considered to be a category of service loss which impacts the
NAS over a wide area.
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Figure 2-1 Effect of Service Interruptions on NAS Capacity
2.1 Contributors to Availability
The availability of NAS services depends on the availability of multiple contributing local
systems and external services. In preparation for the deployment of the Standard Terminal
Automation Replacement System (STARS) in the TRACON, Futron Corporation prepared a
study of TRACON availability risk factors [2]. In this study Futron presented an approach for
deriving “Airspace Vulnerability” and “Workload Vulnerability” measures from availability
parameters of the systems and services utilized in the TRACON.
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Level 1
Level 3
Level 3
Level 6
Level 2
Level 5
Level 2Level 1
STARS
Workstation
Radar
Power
Data
Comm
Radar
Common
ASR-9 ICSS
FSL
TRACON
Power
FDIO
PRM
Mode-S
Voice
Comm
Repair time + 1 minute 5 min
ESL Mode
ESL Mode
Enroute Radar
No Radar
** AVI contribution
incorporated into
S10 result
0% 0%
66/390 0
S3
0% 25%
66/390 0.62
S1
0% 10%
66/390 0.20
S4
30% 25%46/27
0.09 0.17
S2
30% 30%46/27
0 0
S6
50% 10%33/20
2.84 0
S5
85% 100%
10/62.58 0.07
S11
85% 100%
10/60 0
S11
30% 30%
46/27** 0.01
S10.1
25% 10%50/29
0.90 0.13
S13
25% 10%50/29
0.06 0.07
S14
25% 10%50/29
0.39 0.07
S15
85% *10/6
0 0
S16
Full
Service
66/39
Full
Service
Legend:
S: State Identif ier
1: % Aircraft Reduction
2: % Workload Increase
3: Arrivals per Hour
4: Airspace Capacity
4: AVI Result
5: WKI Result
1 2
3/45 6
S
STARS Scenario Values
Scenario Characteristic Value
Functional Level 5 (severe impact) Reduction of traffic in airspace 85% Aircraft Capacity (# a/c) 6 Time to reach new state (min) 29 Time to identify failure (min) Immediately Increase in workload 100% Time to implement new procedures (min) Immediately
Figure 2-2 TRACON State Transition Diagram Template for Separation Services
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Figure 2-2 shows Futron’s availability model for an STARS equipped TRACON. Futron’s study
identified multiple service loss contingencies, shown as “Levels” in the diagram.
The Futron study addressed safety, capacity, and contingencies, but only at two airports. The
methodology of that study is extremely useful and should be recommended as an approach to
modeling future Safety-Critical innovations in the NAS. However, for initial studies of capacity
impacts on the NAS as a whole a simpler approach is needed. Section 3 below presents such an
approach.
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RMA RELATED NAS FACILITY CHARACTERISTICS AFFECTING
CAPACITY
Assessing if a loss of a service is a risk to safety is relatively straightforward. However there is
not an established methodology to determine if loss of a service poses an increased risk to
efficiency or if a service loss qualifies as a significant impact to NAS efficiency. A NAS service
is designated Efficiency-Critical, if losing the service leads to widespread delays and results in
significant economic consequences. The question remains, what magnitude of impact justifies
designating a service as Efficiency-Critical?
Because of the limited impact of service outages at facilities with low demand, those services can
be considered essential. But at the busiest facilities or regions in the NAS, loss of a service can
lead to severe delays and disruption across major portions of the NAS. Loss of services at these
facilities leads to widespread flight delays and cancellations, resulting in severe economic
consequences.
Additionally, similar problems exist for the NAS, as FAA engineers and managers face major
cost-benefit and life cycle decisions when specifying characteristics of individual system
instances and the NAS enterprise services they support. Figure 3-1 illustrates the differences in
systems, system availability, and infrastructure deployed among three typical terminal facilities,
representing low, medium, and heavy traffic volume areas.
Figure 3-1 Availability Related Parameters for Terminal Facilities with Varying Demand
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This section will show how facilities criticality categories could be determined based on
published or derivable metrics to assist decisions regarding appropriate availability requirements.
Candidate metrics include:
Operations count
Delays
Economic impact
The following sections discuss quantifiable parameters that may be utilized to “scale” the various
facilities in the NAS; thereby providing a means to differentiate between Essential and
Efficiency-Critical services provided by these facilities.
3.1 Role of Demand
Perhaps the most obvious metric to assess the severity of a loss of service is demand. This study
examines airport demand, measured by the number of operations at an airport during the Fiscal
Year (FY) of 2013. Airport operations count varies dramatically as shown in Figure 3-2 and
provides some insight into the volume of traffic that would be immediately affected if a service
failure occurs. A service thread failure can result in delays, flight diversions and flight
cancellations. However, the situation is often exacerbated when these impacts propagate to other
facilities. Facilities with a higher operations count intuitively have a higher potential impact and
as such will necessitate more stringent RMA requirements.
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Figure 3-2 ATCT Itinerant Operations2
3.1.1 Role of Delay
Delays often propagate through a network of airports, compounding their effect. Utilizing delay
propagation multipliers produced by the Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) the
relationship between original and propagated delay of airports can be depicted in Figure 3-3
below [3].
Figure 3-3 Original vs Propagated Delay
Delay propagation is a key parameter that can assist in differentiating between Efficiency-
Critical and Essential criticalities. This parameter can not only be quantified in terms of time, but
also in the number of facilities affected. Consequently, delay propagation provides an
understanding of how extensive a service failure at a particular facility can cause to the NAS.
Naturally, service threads are more critical in ATC facilities that would have a greater
propagated effect, such as large hubs and therefore would merit higher availability.
2 “Itinerant Operations” are defined as operations originating or terminating at another facility, as opposed to “Local
Operations” which originate and end within a single facility’s airspace.
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Figure 3-4 Projected Service Loss Impact at Major Airports
To provide a basis for a future classification to rank the potential impact of a facility on NAS
efficiency, a categorization was developed. Airports were categorized according to their impact
to NAS efficiency. Data was partitioned using a k-means clustering algorithm. The output of the
algorithm converged to three clusters using the squared Euclidean distance measure. Results of
the analysis are shown above in Figure 3-4. Select facilities are annotated within Figure 3-4 and
a full list of facilities is provided in Appendix C. The mean of each cluster or centroid is shown
for each of the 3 regions. Future economic studies could assess the projected economic impact of
each region using the centroids as test points.
Figure 3-4 illustrates how potential NAS service loss impacts may be derived from an
assessment of the parameters of interest. The relationship between facility demand and
anticipated delay propagation indicates where the potential for severe disruption to NAS
efficiency due to a service loss is highest. For facilities with high operations count and the
potential for large delay propagation, loss of services is anticipated to have more significant
impact on overall NAS efficiency. Facilities within the low region are not as critical to
maintaining overall NAS efficiency.
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3.1.2 Economic Impact
The cost of delay is normally included in FAA cost benefit analyses. These calculations are
detailed and usually particular to specific systems and circumstances. The FAA’s review of the
Chicago Center Fire [5] states: “The fire at Chicago Center and it’s after effects inconvenienced
passengers; reportedly cost the airlines over $350 million dollars…”
The report does not go into any detail of this cost calculation, but appears to explicitly exclude
any non-airline costs. Traditionally FAA cost/benefit calculations include passengers’ value of
time (PVT) as well (but not secondary effects such as canceled hotel and rental car bookings, or
loss of economic value of the business traveler’s intended work).
The Department of Transportation (DOT) requires airlines to file delay reports, part of which is
their accounting of delay costs which Airlines for America reports at $8,064,000,000 for CY
2013 [6]. ANG-5 performs economic and cost benefit analyses for FAA programs and
represents a resource for programs requiring specific facility or service analyses. Early cost
model development should inform the RMA analysis of architectural alternatives for new
systems.
3.1.3 Other Contributing Factors
A primary contributor to delay in the NAS is extreme or severe weather conditions [7]. For
weather related services, the impact of weather on delay propagation on criticality should be
considered.
It is interesting to note that in Figure 3-4 the airports in the Moderate cluster divide into two
populations along the lower left – upper right diagonal. This is indicative of higher delay impact
on those below the line. In every case the airports below the line are those with more severe
weather conditions. This would indicate that these facilities would be better candidates for
systems that mitigate weather related delays.
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ENTERPRISE AND LEASED SERVICES
Deleted for the purposes of this reprint.
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USING AVAILABILITY HIERARCHY TO STUDY
VULNERABILITIES
Deleted for the purposes of this release.
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CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
This white paper has studied a number of aspects of the impact of RMA on NAS capacity related
metrics. Propagated Delay was found to be a useful metric which can be calculated on a facility
basis and relates directly to airline and passenger costs. The use of cluster analysis to group
facilities according to their potential to cause enterprise-wide impact on NAS capacity was a
useful discriminator between Essential and Efficiency-Critical status for services and systems on
a per-facility basis. Recommendations arising from this study
Calculation of the Delay Propagation multipliers should be updated and extended to
additional airports including all focus airports. Propagated delay is calculated yearly, but
the multipliers are based on 2009 data.
Figure 6-1 Propagated Delay for Top 50 Airports and Extrapolation for the Next 4653
Figure 6-1 shows our extrapolation of the contribution of 465 airports below the top 50’s
contribution to total propagated delay. As can be seen it is non negligible and could
reward further study, particularly in completion of analysis of the Focus Airports.
3 Estimate for 465 airports made on basis of 2nd order polynomial fit to 50 airport data in Figure 6-1 constrained at
0,0.
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Additional modeling and simulation should be conducted to better understand factors
influencing delay propagation to increase the use of this metric in determine NAS
efficiency critical decisions.
6.1 Preliminary Economic Impact Graphs
Based on preliminary reviews of this paper the authors were asked to work with ANG-5 to
develop a set of graphs illustrating the rough economic impact of the total outage of a NAS
facility for use in right-sizing decisions.
Figure 6-2 Preliminary ATCT Economic Impact Graph
Figure 6-2 illustrates the impact of total outage of ATC Services at a wide range of ATCT
serviced airports. This graph is based on the same data used in Figure 3-4, broken down by
month over a five year period. Economic cost was calculated based on a one month outage using
the tables in Appendix E, and includes aircraft operator’s direct operational costs (ADOC) and
passenger’s value of time (PVT); indirect costs are not included.
ANG-B7 does more detailed economic analyses for cost benefit studies of particular program
benefits, the intent of these graphs is strictly as guidance to engineers in making RMA related
decisions.
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Figure 6-3 Preliminary TRACON Economic Impact Graph
Figure 6-3 is based on the same data as Figure 6-2, but is aggregated into TRACON impacts by
adding up the major airports serviced by a TRACON, and by averaging the impact over the full
five year period. As in Figure 3-4, we have clustered the data to show major economic impact
groupings.
As stated previously, these graphs are for total outages (ATC Zero). For measuring the economic
impact of individual services or systems it would be necessary to apply the Futron methodology
illustrated in Figure 2-2 to estimate the individual contribution of a system or service to
availability.
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References
All references used through this document are listed in Table 7-1.
Table 7-1 References
Reference # ID Title
[1] FLIGHT RADAR
Flightradar24. (2014). Flightradar24 Live Air Traffic.
Retrieved September 26, 2014, from
http://www.flightradar24.com
[2] FUTRON Joseph P. Carrigan and Clayton A. Smith, TRACON Risk
Study, Futron Corporation, June 2000
[3] ASPM
Federal Aviation Administration. (2009). FAA Operations
& Performance Data. Retrieved December 2, 2014, from
Federal Aviation Administration :
https://aspm.faa.gov/aspm/ASPMframe.asp
[4] NAS-RD
Federal Aviation Administration. (2012). National
Airspace System Requirements Document. District of
Columbia: Department of Transportation.
[5] ZAU FIRE
(2014). Chicago Center Fire Contingency Planning and
Security Review . District of Columbia : Federal
Aviation Adminstration .
[6] AIRLINES
Airlines for America . (2014). Airlines for America.
Retrieved December 10, 2014, from
http://airlines.org/data/per-minute-cost-of-
delays-to-u-s-airlines/
[7] DOT
Department of Transportation . (2012, March 2). United
States Department of Transportation . Retrieved
December 8, 2014, from Bureau of
Transportation Statistics :
http://www.transtats.bts.gov/OT_Delay/ot_delay
cause1.asp?type=3&pn=1
[8] WRIGHT Wright, G. (2014, September 28). System Analysis
Recording Data Imaged. Arlington , Virginia .
[9] RMA HDBK
Federal Aviation Administration. (2014). Reliability,
Maintainability, and Availability (RMA)
Handbook. District of Columbia : Federal
Aviation Administration .
[10] MITRE
Welman, S., Williams, A., & Hechtman, D. (2010).
Calculating Delay Propagation Multipliers for
Cost-Benefit Analysis. McLean: MITRE.
[11] CONTRACT
Federal Aviation Administration . (2007). Controls Over
the Federal Aviation Administration's
Conversion of Flight Service Stations to
Contract Operations . District of Columbia :
Federal Aviation Administration .
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Appendix A DEFINITIONS
Capacity: The number of aircraft that can be accommodated in a given time period by the system
or one of its components.
Delay Propagation: Delay that has been transmitted over more than a single flight leg for a given
aircraft itinerary.
Service threads: Service threads are strings of systems/functions that support one or more of the
NAS EA Functions. These service threads represent specific data paths (e.g. radar surveillance data)
to air traffic specialists or pilots.
Severity: A relative measure of the consequence of a failure mode, sensitivity to outage downtime,
and its frequency of occurrence.
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Appendix B APPLICABLE DOCUMENTS
B.1 Specifications, Standards, and Handbooks
1. NAS-RD-2012
2. NAS-SR-1000
3. NAS-HDBK-006B
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Appendix C ATCT DATA FOR CLUSTER ANALYSIS
ATCT Delay Propagation
(Minutes)
Total
Operations NAS Impact Category
ORD 3,144,148 596,056 Extreme
ATL 2,563,861 785,306 Extreme
DFW 1,822,954 556,682 Extreme
SFO 1,758,539 328,688 Extreme
DEN 1,498,391 445,142 Moderate to Severe
LAX 1,144,325 440,120 Moderate to Severe
EWR 1,134,614 235,472 Moderate to Severe
IAH 881,101 358,997 Moderate to Severe
LGA 839,446 194,529 Moderate to Severe
MDW 827,028 174,969 Moderate to Severe
BWI 814,785 199,012 Moderate to Severe
MCO 762,074 228,359 Moderate to Severe
JFK 722,772 210,839 Moderate to Severe
LAS 675,746 276,406 Moderate to Severe
DTW 663,513 292,936 Moderate to Severe
BOS 662,621 213,087 Moderate to Severe
PHX 613,164 352,298 Moderate to Severe
CLT 553,966 283,508 Low to Moderate
PHL 542,573 158,467 Low to Moderate
FLL 538,444 133,356 Low to Moderate
IAD 534,594 145,882 Low to Moderate
HOU 533,127 114,626 Low to Moderate
DAL 465,544 92,255 Low to Moderate
BNA 458,512 114,091 Low to Moderate
SAN 455,507 151,362 Low to Moderate
MSP 449,489 272,685 Low to Moderate
SLC 438,205 223,042 Low to Moderate
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ATCT Delay Propagation
(Minutes)
Total
Operations NAS Impact Category
STL 418,748 113,068 Low to Moderate
TPA 412,627 131,468 Low to Moderate
MCI 396,061 99,874 Low to Moderate
MIA 387,486 159,944 Low to Moderate
SEA 383,375 202,182 Low to Moderate
DCA 377,724 144,194 Low to Moderate
AUS 344,568 92,776 Low to Moderate
CLE 335,439 90,666 Low to Moderate
RDU 319,403 93,056 Low to Moderate
MKE 275,559 70,597 Low to Moderate
MSY 273,155 83,394 Low to Moderate
SAT 267,906 79,512 Low to Moderate
HNL 253,246 106,358 Low to Moderate
PDX 244,955 104,493 Low to Moderate
OAK 244,417 88,085 Low to Moderate
PIT 237,395 67,299 Low to Moderate
SMF 232,893 84,680 Low to Moderate
CMH 223,172 56,124 Low to Moderate
IND 195,779 59,241 Low to Moderate
CVG 194,759 75,834 Low to Moderate
PBI 166,065 44,314 Low to Moderate
MEM 149,317 66,669 Low to Moderate
SNA 140,279 79,461 Low to Moderate
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Appendix D LEASED FLIGHT SERVICE PERFORMANCE MEASURES 1
2
3
4
Deleted for the purposes of this reprint.5
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Appendix E ECONOMIC COST FACTORS 6
The following Economic Cost Tables provided by ANG-5 were used as input to the calculations in Figures 6-2 and 6-3: 7
8
FY13$ Cancellations*
(ADOC) Diversions
(ADOC)**
Cancellations*
(PVT)
(5 Hours)
Diversions
(PVT)**
Air Carrier - Passenger $ - $ 19,911 $ 20,412 $ 20,412
Air Carrier - Cargo $ 5,611.27 $ 15,345 N/A N/A
Air Carrier - TAF $ 383 $ 19,599 $ 19,107 $ 19,018
Air Taxi - TAF $ - $ 5,919 $ 6,235 $ 6,733
General Aviation3 TBD N/A N/A N/A
Military4 TBD N/A N/A N/A
* Cancellations ADOC & PVT still under research
** Diversions based on ASQP (BTS Airlines) Data (AC -PAX = 5 hrs, AC-Cargo = 2 hrs, AT-TAF = 5.4 hrs)
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