Atlanta Multifamily Market Remains Strong - East · PDF fileAtlanta Multifamily Market Remains...
Transcript of Atlanta Multifamily Market Remains Strong - East · PDF fileAtlanta Multifamily Market Remains...
Research & Forecast Report
AtlAntAQ2 2015 | Multifamily
Atlanta Multifamily Market Remains StrongKey Takeaways > Effective rents have increased 2.7% 2Q15 vs. 1Q15, and 7.3% annually.
> Highest 2nd Quarter rent growth was in these submarkets: South Atlanta suburbs (9.2%), Duluth (5.3%), Smyrna (5.0%), Southeast Marietta (4.9%), and West Marietta (4.4%).
> Continued job growth of 3% annually in the region has brought the unemployment rate down to 5.9%.
> Mid-Year 2015 occupancy rates have remained high at 94.2% amongst increasing inventory. These high occupancy rates are driven by sustained demand particularly for middle and top-tier product in the northern and central parts of the city.
> Expansion continues in Atlanta at a rate of 1.4% YoY with 7,997 units added in 2Q15.
Atlanta Multifamily MarketAtlanta’s multifamily market has remained strong with a continued rent growth of 2.7% in the 2nd quarter of 2015. Year-over-year rent growth is at 7.3% putting Atlanta in the top ten of all major metros and number one in the Southern region. The foundation to this growth is a strong, robust economy along with limited new construction in the market.
Demand has remained solid in the Atlanta metro due to continuous employment growth and corporate expansions. Atlanta ranked number 4 nationally for job growth in the 12-month period ending in June, adding over 77,000 jobs. The locations of these jobs tend to be centered around the city lending more desirability for apartments in urban settings. Notable for the quarter, Porsche has opened its new North American headquarters near Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport which will have 400+ employees. Other corporate expansions announced in the quarter include Kaiser Permanente, Sage Group, Courion, and Google. High demand has kept occupancy rates at 94.2% for the quarter even amongst new units being added to the region.
US SOUTH ATLANTA Source: MPF Research
Historical Apartment Occupancy & Rents
Market IndicatorsRelative to prior period
ATLQ2 2015
ATLQ3 2015*
VACANCY
RENTS
CONCESSIONS
TRANSACTIONS
PRICE PER UNIT
CAP RATES - -*Projected
89%90%91%92%93%94%95%96%97%
2013
2014
2015
Occ
upan
cy %
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
2013
2014
2015
AVG
Mon
thly
Ren
t
2 Research & Forecast Report | Q2 2015 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International
Atlanta Multifamily Market (continued)Another factor in the strong multifamily market is generational. Millennials, whose ages range from 18 to 34, are not buying homes at the same rate as previous generations. The average first time home buyer today rents for six years before buying a home compared to two and half years in the early 1970s. This is largely due to the fact millennials do not have the financial savings to afford the down payment on many of the homes in the market. Rental growth rates across the country have grown at twice the pace of wage growth. In Atlanta, wages have grown at 2% in the twelve month period ending June 2015, compared to a 7.3% increase in rental rates during that same period. This has created further demand for multifamily rental housing.
While demand remains strong, Atlanta’s supply of apartments is certainly on the upswing albeit at a manageable pace. Inventory
growth has remained under 2% for the past three years with 7,997 units added in 2Q15. Absorption in the market for 2Q15 was 4,552 units. Approximately 13,000 units were under construction in 2Q15 with 85% being located in Downtown, Midtown, and Buckhead submarkets. This is largely due to high demand for product in these submarkets which has allowed many completed developments to command rents north of $2.50 per square foot.
To sum, we can expect rents to continue to increase in the future with strong demand prospects and limited new inventory entering the market. Another trend to watch for the future is the growth of baby boomers in the apartment marketplace. The population ages 65 and older will grow to over 50 million by 2019 up from around 30 million in 1989. This is expected to fuel future rent demand as many empty nesters will seek to downsize their household and enjoy many of the conveniences renting an apartment vs. owning a home provides.
Historical Investment Volume & Cap Rates
UPDATE - Recent Transactions in the Market
Notable Sales Activity
PROPERTy SUbMARkET SAlES DATE SAlE PRIcE SIzE (UnITS) PRIcE / UnIT bUyER
Brookleigh Flats Northlake 5/14/2015 $84,950,000 332 $253,582 LaSalle Investment Mgmt.
Steelworks Midtown 6/18/2015 $80,400,000 329 $244,377 Heitman LLC
Dunwoody Place Central Perimeter 7/16/2015 $77,200,000 400 $193,000 Crow Holdings
Avana Lenox Buckhead 6/29/2015 $71,600,000 423 $169,267 Greystar Real Estate Prtnrs
ARIUM Johns Creek North Fulton 7/1/2015 $64,500,000 396 $162,879 Goldman Sachs Asset Mgmt
The Jane Atlanta Apartments Midtown 4/30/2015 $63,600,000 280 $227,143 CWS Capital Partners
Anderson at Clairmont Northlake 6/23/2015 $60,050,000 408 $147,181 Eaton Vance Corp.
Berkshire Howell Mill Midtown 5/13/2015 $51,500,000 257 $200,389 Berkshire Group
Inman Quarter Downtown 5/29/2015 $50,000,000 200 $250,000 TriBridge Residential/Coro
Manchester at Mansell Apts. North Fulton 5/8/2015 $48,500,000 468 $103,632 Titan Real Estate Investment
Sales Volume AVG Cap Rate
AtlANtA MultifAMily
Apartment investment volume as of mid-year 2015 in Atlanta is almost half of the amount in all of 2014. Around 87 properties with a total of 19,784 units have sold to date. According to Real Capital Analytics, the average price per unit in Atlanta decreased to $95,984 which is lower than last quarter, but still 24% higher than a year ago. The average cap rate for apartments in the Atlanta market has remained practically unchanged from last quarter at 6.6%.
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Source: Real Capital Analytics
Source: CoStar Comps
3 Research & Forecast Report | Q2 2015 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International
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Multifamily Pipeline | Urban Atlanta Sources: CoStar Property, MPf Research
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UNDER CONSTRUCTION
# Name Developer/Owner Address Market Units
1 Broadstone Court Alliance Residential Company 3091 Maple Dr Buckhead 250
2 (not yet named) Abraham Properties & Builders 675 North Highland Ave NE Midtown 124
3 Elan Inman Station Crim & Associates 144 Moreland Ave NE Downtown 285
4 Square on Fifth Gateway Development Services 848 Spring St NW Midtown 220
5 Peachtree Apartments 782 Peachtree St NE Midtown 294
6 Ardmore & 28th Cocke Finkelstein, Inc. 306 Ardmore Cir NW Midtown 165
7 The Monroe Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 222 Colonial Homes Dr NW Buckhead 218
8 33 Peachtree Place Wood Partners 33 Peachtree Pl NE Midtown 369
9 The Brady Perennial Properties, Inc. 930 Howell Mill Rd Midtown 230
10 Aspire West Midtown Westplan Investors 1390 Northside Dr Midtown 133
11 Elan Lindbergh Greystar Real Estate Partners 741 Morosgo Dr NE Buckhead 258
12 Modera Morningside Mill Creek Residential Trust LLC 1845 Piedmont Ave NE Buckhead 300
13 Domain at Phipps Plaza Columbus Realty Partners, Ltd. 705 Phipps Plz NE Buckhead 319
14 AMLI City Place AMLI Residential Properties, LP 3464 Roxboro Rd NE Buckhead 640
15 The Reserve at the Ballpark Atlantic Realty Partners 2875 Crescent Pky Northwest Atlanta 318
16 The Collection JLB Partners, LP 4600 Roswell Rd Central Perimeter 316
17 200 Edgewood Sanctuary Residential LLC 200 Edgewood Ave NE Downtown 144
18 Camden Paces - Phase II Camden Realty Inc 77 E Andrews Dr NW Buckhead 152
19 Hanover Park Place Trammell Crow Residential Company 475 Buckhead Ave NE Buckhead 375
4 Research & Forecast Report | Q2 2015 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International
Multifamily Pipeline | Urban Atlanta (cont.) Sources: CoStar Property, MPf Research
LEASE UP
# Name Developer/Owner Address Market Units
1 Haynes House Alliance Residential Company 2420 Peachtree Rd NW Midtown 186
2 The Jane Atlanta Apartment Homes Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 214 Colonial Homes Dr NW Buckhead 280
3 Cyan on Peachtree Atlantic Realty Partners 3380 Peachtree Rd NE Buckhead 327
4 The High Rise at Post Alexander Post Properties, Inc. 600 Phipps Blvd NE Buckhead 143
5 SkyHouse Buckhead Novare Group 3390 Stratford Rd Buckhead 362
6 Citizen Perimeter Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 1125 Hammond Dr NE Central Perimeter 341
7 Overton Rise Apartments Newport Development, LLC 3695 Cumberland Blvd Northwest Atlanta 294
8 Daily World Apartments Gene Kansas Commercial Real Estate 145 Auburn Ave NE Downtown 5
9 Berkshire Terminus Crescent Communities, LLC 3280 Peachtree Rd NE Buckhead 355
10 Alexan on Krog Trammell Crow Residential Company 112 Krog St NE Downtown 222
11 131 Ponce Sereo Group, Inc. 131 Ponce de Leon Ave NE Midtown 280
12 Crescent Howell Mill Crescent Communities, LLC 1950 Howell Mill Rd NW Midtown 256
13 1105 Town Brookhaven Apartments Fairfield Residential 1105 Town Blvd Buckhead 299
14 Indigo House 111 Glenridge Point Pky NE Central Perimeter 181
15 Alta Brookhaven Wood Partners 1295 Dresden Dr NE Buckhead 230
16 1160 Hammond Northwood Ravin 1160 Hammond Dr NE Central Perimeter 349
17 Avonlea Square Quintus Corporation 1836 Roswell St SE Northwest Atlanta 159
totAl 4,269
20 The Office Apartments DeBartolo Development LLC 250 Piedmont Ave NE Downtown 324
21 Yoo on The Park Trillist Company 207 13th St NE Midtown 245
22 Atlantic House Novare Group 1163 W Peachtree St NW Midtown 407
23 60 11th St Selig Enterprises, Inc. 60 11th St NE Midtown 320
24 Alexan Glenwood Trammell Crow Residential Company 860 Glenwood Ave SE Downtown 216
25 Alexan Village Flats Trammell Crow Residential Company 1205 Metropolitan Ave SE Downtown 120
26 1824 Defoor Westside 1824 Defoor Ave NW Midtown 236
27 The Heights at West Midtown The Worthing Companies 507 Bishop St NW Midtown 224
28 455 Fourteenth Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 455 14th St NW Midtown 361
29 Gables Oglethorpe Clarion 2925 Hermance Dr NE Buckhead 369
30 AMLI Piedmont Heights AMLI Residential Properties, LP 737 Lindbergh Dr NE Buckhead 375
31 Solis Downwood Terwilliger Pappas 3201 Downwood Cir NW Buckhead 280
32 Aspire North Druid Hills Westplan Investors 7 Executive Park Dr NE Buckhead 310
33 Gables Emory Point Phase II Clarion 1627 Clifton Rd NE East Atlanta 307
34 The Metro Audubon Communities 1500 Parkwood Cir SE Northwest Atlanta 200
35 The Encore Oxford Properties 3290 Cobb Galleria Pky Northwest Atlanta 339
36 The Place on Ponce - Phase II Carter USA 315 W Ponce de Leon Ave East Atlanta 206
37 Alexan Decatur Trammell Crow Residential Company 160 Clairemont Ave East Atlanta 167
38 Trinity Triangle Centro Development LLC 245 E Trinity Pl East Atlanta 210
39 The Reserve at Decatur Atlantic Realty Partners 2600 Milscott Dr East Atlanta 330
40 One City Walk George S. Morgan Development Co., Inc. 6038 Roswell Rd NE Central Perimeter 203
41 Alta Belmont Wood Partners 400 Belmont Pl Northwest Atlanta 274
42 Avonlea Square - Phase II Quintus Corporation 1836 Roswell St SE Northwest Atlanta 159
totAl 11,292
5 Research & Forecast Report | Q2 2015 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International
Metro Atlanta Housing Permit Activity
Metro Atlanta Employment Overview
0
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Multifam
ily Permits
Issued
Metro Atlanta Employment Comparison
METRO AREA RAnk y-O-y EMPlOyMEnT
y-O-y PERcEnT
UnEMPlOyMEnTRATE
Los Angeles/OC 1 144,300 2.5% 6.6%
New York/NNJ 2 140,900 1.5% 5.6%
Dallas-Fort Worth 3 111,700 3.4% 3.8%
Atlanta 4 79,200 3.2% 5.9%
Miami-Ft. Lauderdale 5 76,800 3.2% 5.7%
Seattle 6 67,100 3.7% 4.3%
San Francisco 7 65,100 3.0% 4.1%
Houston 8 59,700 1.8% 4.2%
DC-Arlington 9 59,100 1.9% 4.6%
Chicago 10 57,600 1.3% 5.8%
San Jose 11 55,000 5.5% 4.0%
Detroit 12 51,400 2.7% 6.6%
U.S. Total 3,068,000 2.2% 5.5%
Mercedes-Benz relocates headquarters to Atlanta bringing 400 existing employees to the state and creating 600 new jobs > Atlanta Business Chronicle - February 2015
Kaiser Permanente to put it campus in Midtown Atlanta and create 900 new jobs > Atlanta Business Chronicle - April 2015
Kaiser Permanente eyes Alpharetta for new business unit, could employ several hundred > Atlanta Business Chronicle - July 2015
Coke moving 500 people to city, leaving Cobb County > Atlanta Business Chronicle - June 2015
Sage Software confirms plans to create 400 jobs in Midtown > Atlanta Business Chronicle - June 2015
lincoln financial adding hundreds of jobs, moving to RiverEdge Summit > Bisnow Atlanta - July 2015
61.3
10.8
‐42.3
‐22.9
30.1
69.4 66.2
48.9
‐26.8
‐136.6
‐20.9
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(150.0)
(100.0)
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100.0
Jobs Add
ed/Lost (thou
sand
s)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Source: US Dept. of Labor Statistics/Moody’s Analytics
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Metro Level Data May 2015 Average, not Seasonally Adjusted
Atlanta News
6 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Office Market Outlook | Colliers International
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Atlanta Submarkets
Units transacted through 2014
27,000MORE THAN
Group gross transaction value in 2014, $4.5B national company transaction value
$1.7b
Dedicated Multifamily Professionals & Advisors
50MORE THAN
Expansive geographic footprint
14TRANSACTING IN
STATES