Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life...

43
Get Smart Market Insights from Our Research Team 2017 Customer Conference

Transcript of Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life...

Page 1: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Get SmartMarket Insights from Our Research Team

2017 Customer Conference

Page 2: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Presenters

Steve

Guggenmos

Vice President

Research &

Modeling

Sara

Hoffman

Manager

Investments &

Portfolio

Management

Amanda

Nunnink

Senior Director

Production &

Sales

Steve

Griffin

Director

Production &

Sales

Senior Director

Production &

Sales

Amanda

Nunnink

Steve

Guggenmos

Vice President

Research &

Modeling

Director

Production &

Sales

Steve

Griffin

Sara

Hoffmann

Manager

Investments & Portfolio

Management

Page 3: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

60% said

grow slightly

or significantly

25% said

stabilize

15% said

slow down

How did respondents anticipate the multifamily market

to grow over the next 3 to 5 years?

Industry Survey

Page 4: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Industry Survey

Reasons why multifamily market will grow

32% demand/supply

17% growing population

12% how it’s been trending

Reasons why multifamily market will slow down

42% saturation or oversupply

Page 5: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

60%

Grow slightly

or significantly

more

How will the rental market grow compared to the

homeownership market?

37% say

homeownership

will grow

26% say

markets will

remain same

38% say rental

market will

grow

Industry Survey

Page 6: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Rent vs. Own

• 21% say more people choose to rent

• 11% say it’s too expensive to buy

• 5% say it’s hard to qualify for a mortgage

• 8% say more people choose to buy

• 5% say people want to own a home

• 3% say rent is too expensive

Page 7: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Rental Demand Keeps Rising

Increasing number of renter households – by necessity and choice

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey, Freddie Mac

58%

60%

62%

64%

66%

68%

70%

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20162017 (Q2)

Su

pp

ly

M

Owner Households Renter Households Homeownership RateTotal Households

Growth 2005-2017:

9.4 million

Renter Household Growth 2005-2017:

9.2 million

Owner Household Growth 2005-2017:

262,250

Homeownership Rate

down 5.3%

Page 8: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

Historic (REIS) Average (1990-2016) REIS RealPage Axiometrics Freddie Mac

Rent Growth

Long-run rent growth of 3.3% going back to 1990

Sources: REIS, RealPage, Axiometrics, Freddie Mac

’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 2020 ’212000 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 2010

Page 9: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Rent Growth

Long-run rent growth of 3.3% going back to 1990

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Average (1990-2016) REIS RealPage Axiometrics Freddie Mac

Sources: REIS, RealPage, Axiometrics, Freddie Mac

Page 10: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Vacancy Rates

Long-run vacancy rate 5.3% going back to 1990

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Historical (REIS) Average (1990-2016) REIS RealPage Axiometrics Freddie Mac

’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 2020 ’212000 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 2010

Sources: REIS, RealPage, Axiometrics, Freddie Mac

Page 11: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Vacancy Rates

Long-run vacancy rate 5.3% going back to 1990

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Average (1990-2016) REIS RealPage Axiometrics Freddie Mac

Sources: REIS, RealPage, Axiometrics, Freddie Mac

Page 12: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Historic (REIS) Average (1990-2016) REIS RealPage Axiometrics Freddie Mac Inflation

’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 2020 ’212000 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 2010

Gross Income Growth

Long-run gross income growth of 3.4% going back to 1990

Sources: REIS, RealPage, Axiometrics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Moody’s Analytics Forecasted, Freddie Mac

Page 13: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Gross Income Growth

Long-run gross income growth of 3.4% going back to 1990

Sources: REIS, RealPage, Axiometrics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Moody’s Analytics Forecasted, Freddie Mac

0

1

2

3

4

5

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Average (1990-2016) REIS RealPage Axiometrics Freddie Mac Inflation

Page 14: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Mu

ltifam

ily P

rice

Inde

x

Tre

asu

ry, S

pre

ad

and

Ca

p R

ate

10-year Treasury Rate Cap Rate Spread CPPI (RHS)

Multifamily Cap Rates & U.S. Treasuries

Current risk premium demanded to hold real estate is above average levels

Sources: Real Capital Analytics (RCA) Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI), U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Page 15: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Multifamily Origination Volume

As a result of strong fundamentals, origination volume continues to set record years

Sources: MBA, Fannie Mae, ACLI, Wells Fargo Securities, and Freddie Mac

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017*

B

Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies

CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie 2017 Forecast

Page 16: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Multifamily Supply

Annual completions in 2017 reached 350,000 –

expected to go higher but new construction continues to abate

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Moody’s Analytics

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Ren

ter

Oc

cu

pie

d H

ou

se

ho

lds

(M

illi

on

s)

MF

Pe

rmit

s, S

tart

s a

nd

Co

mp

leti

on

s (

Th

ou

sa

nd

s)

MF Permits MF Starts MF Completions Renter Occupied

Page 17: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Demand vs. Supply

Demand remains just as strong but supply increasing compared to prior few years

Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

K

New Supply Absorptions 2014-2016 Avg Absorptions

Page 18: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Markets with Highest New Supply 2017-2018

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

New

Yo

rk

Dalla

s

Ho

us

ton

Wa

sh

ing

ton

, D

C

Atl

an

ta

Sea

ttle

Lo

s A

ng

ele

s

Den

ver

Au

sti

n

Ch

icag

o

Bo

sto

n

Na

sh

vil

le

Ch

arl

ott

e

Orl

an

do

Ph

oen

ix

Ora

ng

e C

o

San

An

ton

io

Po

rtla

nd

Mia

mi

Salt

La

ke C

ity

Rale

igh

Min

ne

ap

olis

San

Fra

nc

isc

o

Ph

ila

de

lph

ia

Ta

mp

a B

ay

No

rth

ern

NJ

San

Jo

se

San

Die

go

Ft.

Wo

rth

Kan

sas

Cit

y

Co

lum

bu

s

Ft.

La

ud

erd

ale

Mil

wau

ke

e

Balt

imo

re

La

s V

eg

as

Oak

lan

d

Palm

Beac

h

Su

pp

ly

K

Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

Page 19: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

New Supply & Inventory Change

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Ne

w Y

ork

Dalla

s

Ho

us

ton

Wa

sh

ing

ton

, D

C

Atl

an

ta

Sea

ttle

Lo

s A

ng

ele

s

De

nv

er

Au

sti

n

Ch

icag

o

Bo

sto

n

Nash

vil

le

Ch

arl

ott

e

Orl

an

do

Ph

oen

ix

Ora

ng

e C

o

San

An

ton

io

Po

rtla

nd

Mia

mi

Salt

La

ke C

ity

Ra

leig

h

Min

ne

ap

olis

San

Fra

nc

isc

o

Ph

ila

de

lph

ia

Ta

mp

a B

ay

No

rth

ern

NJ

San

Jo

se

San

Die

go

Ft.

Wo

rth

Kan

sas

Cit

y

Co

lum

bu

s

Ft.

La

ud

erd

ale

Mil

wau

ke

e

Balt

imo

re

La

s V

eg

as

Oak

lan

d

Palm

Beac

h

Su

pp

ly

K 2017-2018 Avg Supply 2017-2018 Inventory Change

Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

Page 20: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

New

Yo

rk

Dalla

s

Ho

us

ton

Wa

sh

ing

ton

, D

C

Atl

an

ta

Sea

ttle

Lo

s A

ng

ele

s

Den

ver

Au

sti

n

Ch

icag

o

Bo

sto

n

Na

sh

vil

le

Ch

arl

ott

e

Orl

an

do

Ph

oen

ix

Ora

ng

e C

o

San

An

ton

io

Po

rtla

nd

Mia

mi

Salt

La

ke C

ity

Rale

igh

Min

ne

ap

olis

San

Fra

nc

isc

o

Ph

ila

de

lph

ia

Ta

mp

a B

ay

No

rth

ern

NJ

San

Jo

se

San

Die

go

Ft.

Wo

rth

Kan

sas

Cit

y

Co

lum

bu

s

Ft.

La

ud

erd

ale

Mil

wau

ke

e

Balt

imo

re

La

s V

eg

as

Oak

lan

d

Palm

Beac

h

Su

pp

ly

K

Supply & Absorptions 2017-2018

Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

2017-2018 Avg Supply 2017-2018 Avg Absorptions 2015-2016 Avg Absorptions

Page 21: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Annual Average New Supply 2019-2021

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Ne

w Y

ork

Dalla

s

Ho

us

ton

Wa

sh

ing

ton

, D

C

Atl

an

ta

Sea

ttle

Lo

s A

ng

ele

s

De

nv

er

Au

sti

n

Ch

icag

o

Bo

sto

n

Nash

vil

le

Ch

arl

ott

e

Orl

an

do

Ph

oen

ix

Ora

ng

e C

o

San

An

ton

io

Po

rtla

nd

Mia

mi

Salt

La

ke C

ity

Ra

leig

h

Min

ne

ap

olis

San

Fra

nc

isc

o

Ph

ila

de

lph

ia

Ta

mp

a B

ay

No

rth

ern

NJ

San

Jo

se

San

Die

go

Ft.

Wo

rth

Kan

sas

Cit

y

Co

lum

bu

s

Ft.

La

ud

erd

ale

Mil

wau

ke

e

Balt

imo

re

La

s V

eg

as

Oak

lan

d

Palm

Beac

h

Su

pp

ly

K

Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

Page 22: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Annual Average New Supply & Absorption 2019-2021

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Ne

w Y

ork

Dalla

s

Ho

us

ton

Wa

sh

ing

ton

, D

C

Atl

an

ta

Sea

ttle

Lo

s A

ng

ele

s

De

nv

er

Au

sti

n

Ch

icag

o

Bo

sto

n

Nash

vil

le

Ch

arl

ott

e

Orl

an

do

Ph

oen

ix

Ora

ng

e C

o

San

An

ton

io

Po

rtla

nd

Mia

mi

Salt

La

ke C

ity

Ra

leig

h

Min

ne

ap

olis

San

Fra

nc

isc

o

Ph

ila

de

lph

ia

Ta

mp

a B

ay

No

rth

ern

NJ

San

Jo

se

San

Die

go

Ft.

Wo

rth

Kan

sas

Cit

y

Co

lum

bu

s

Ft.

La

ud

erd

ale

Mil

wau

ke

e

Balt

imo

re

La

s V

eg

as

Oak

lan

d

Palm

Beac

h

Su

pp

ly

K 2019-2021 Avg New Supply 2019-2021 Avg Absorptions

Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

Page 23: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

New York City

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

K

New Supply Absorptions

Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

Page 24: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

New York City

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

K

New Supply Absorptions Employment

Sources: RealPage, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Freddie Mac

Page 25: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

New York City

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

K

New Supply Absorptions Rent Growth Vacancy

Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

Page 26: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Los Angeles

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

K

New Supply Absorptions

Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

Page 27: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Los Angeles

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

K

New Supply Absorptions Employment

Sources: RealPage, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Freddie Mac

Page 28: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Los Angeles

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

K

New Supply Absorptions Rent Growth Vacancy Rate

Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

Page 29: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

San Francisco

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

K

New Supply Absorptions

Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

Page 30: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

San Francisco

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

K

New Supply Absorptions Employment

Sources: RealPage, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Freddie Mac

Page 31: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

San Francisco

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

K

New Supply Absorptions Rent Growth Vacancy

Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

Page 32: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Nashville

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

K

New Supply Absorptions

Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

Page 33: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Nashville

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

K

New Supply Absorptions Employment

Sources: RealPage, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Freddie Mac

Page 34: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Nashville

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

K

New Supply Absorptions Rent Growth Vacancy

Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

Page 35: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Fort Lauderdale

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

K

New Supply Absorptions

Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

Page 36: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Fort Lauderdale

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

K

New Supply Absorptions Employment

Sources: RealPage, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Freddie Mac

Page 37: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Fort Lauderdale

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

K

New Supply Absorptions

Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

Page 38: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Phoenix

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

K

New Supply Absorptions

Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

Page 39: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Phoenix

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

K

New Supply Absorptions Employment

Sources: RealPage, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Freddie Mac

Page 40: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Phoenix

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

K

New Supply Absorptions Rent Growth Vacancy

Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

Page 41: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Source: Freddie Mac

2017 2018

Metro

Gross

Income

Vacancy

Rate Metro

Gross

Income

Vacancy

Rate

Seattle 6.6% 5.0% Sacramento 4.8% 3.3%

Tacoma 5.9% 3.1% Portland 4.7% 5.4%

Sacramento 5.7% 2.9% Tacoma 4.5% 3.5%

Portland 5.3% 5.2% Seattle 4.4% 5.6%

Colorado Springs 5.2% 3.7% Ft. Lauderdale 4.3% 4.5%

Nashville 4.6% 5.8% Cleveland 4.3% 3.2%

Los Angeles 4.4% 3.6% Tampa 4.2% 5.6%

Oakland 4.2% 3.5% West Palm Beach 4.2% 4.8%

Ft. Worth 4.1% 4.2% Oakland 4.0% 3.7%

Riverside 4.1% 3.0% Jacksonville 3.9% 6.2%

Top 10 Markets with Highest Income Growth in 2017 & 2018

Page 42: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

AffordabilityGrowing Affordability Problem

55.5% 54.0% 52.5% 47.3% 43.7% 43.2%

32.0% 32.7% 33.1%36.3%

37.0% 36.8%

5.9% 6.3% 6.7% 7.5% 8.8% 9.4%

6.6% 7.0% 7.6% 8.9% 10.4% 10.5%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

AMI: Under 50% AMI: 50%-80% AMI: 80%-100% AMI: 100%+

Sources: Freddie Mac tabulations of American Community Survey microdata. Affordability thresholds are based on the AMI of all MSAs in the United States

Page 43: Freddie Mac Multifamily Market Research · Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie

Affordability

Multifamily very low-income (VLI) population is shrinking as rent

growth outpaces income growth

Source: Freddie Mac

First Financing Second Financing

Units VLI LI Median None VLI LI Median None

Total 97,061 11.2% 71.3% 13.3% 4.2% 4.3% 65.2% 21.0% 9.4%

TX 28,533 10.2% 74.0% 13.6% 2.2% 3.2% 69.0% 23.1% 4.8%

FL 13,197 1.5% 60.2% 34.1% 4.0% 1.6% 38.7% 39.6% 20.2%

GA 9,766 11.8% 75.9% 8.7% 3.6% 2.1% 77.7% 14.8% 5.4%

CO 5,128 32.4% 67.6% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 82.6% 9.5% 0.4%

NC 5,061 9.8% 88.2% 2.0% 0.0% 0.3% 83.9% 15.6% 0.3%

CA 4,776 2.3% 55.6% 15.6% 26.6% 2.5% 9.8% 27.1% 60.6%

AZ 4,154 34.0% 65.5% 0.7% 0.0% 21.8% 74.5% 3.3% 0.0%

NV 3,564 15.8% 67.6% 16.4% 0.3% 4.0% 75.4% 20.1% 0.5%

WA 3,262 4.0% 86.1% 1.6% 8.3% 1.1% 81.6% 11.0% 6.3%

Repeat financing of VLI affordability analysis (2010 – 2016)