Athens, Nov.13 2018conference14.diorama.gr/images/presentations/Antonis-Trakakis.pdf · 14 Nitrogen...

Future proof of LNG as marine fuelAntonis Trakakis

Technical Manager | Arista Shipping

Greener Shipping SummitAthens, Nov.13 2018

CONFIDENTIAL | Preliminary & Non-binding | Subject to Revision

The road to decarbonization

2

Despite the need to carry more goods, shipping is requested to reverses the slope of emissions generation in order to phase out GHG and match the pace of Paris temperature goals

Shipping is the most efficient sector of transportation in terms of carbon intensity, and there is not much space for us to become better

We need to do things different


Decarbonization >> 2020 Sulphur cap

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The available carbon budget has been almost exhausted. The world is likely to warm 1.5°C by 2030 instead of 2050. • By 2100, global sea level rise would be 10 cm lower with global warming of 1.5°C compared with 2°C. • The likelihood of an Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer would be once per century with global warming of

1.5°C, compared with at least once per decade with 2°C. Coral reefs would decline by 70-90 % with global warming of 1.5°C, whereas virtually all (> 99 %) would be lost with 2ºC

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangePublished 8 Oct 2018

The report demonstrates that limiting global warming to 1.5°C is scientifically possible.To achieve the objective, the average annual investment in the energy system alone is estimated at :

2.4 trillion USD between 2016 and 2035, representing 2.5% of the world GDP.


Alternative Fuels : energy density

4

Fuels store energy (measured in MJ)Fuels are stored in tanks (measured in m3)

Total Energy : 50 TJ

MJ/lit Tank volume (m3)

HFO 39.7 1,260

LPG 20.7 1,998

LNG 25.0 2,418

Methanol 10.1 3,176

H2 9.2 5,409

We wish to build ships with fuel tanks and not ships around fuel tanks


Methanol as fuel

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Methanol has very low LHV which results in extremely high SFC


To LNG or To LPG ?

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LNG LPG ULSFO Methanol

mil USD/year Annual fuel costs

Ref. vessel, 82K DWT bulk carrier, 5500 RH/year, ex.Rotterdam

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LNG LPG Methanol

mil USD Δcapex

LNG & LPG are the only serious alternatives to liquid fuel

NH3 is both caustic , poisonous and extremely hazardous. Utilizing NH3 for maritime propulsion will require the development of new safety standards, installation of infrastructure and, most importantly, the availability of large quantities of renewable ammoniaAnd in order for ammonia to be a truly carbon-free fuel, it will have to be electro-chemically produced from renewable energy rather than from carbon-containing natural gas (methane) or liquefied petroleum gasses (LPG), the most common ammonia production methods in use today.https://www.mpropulsion.com/news/view,man-ammonia-marine-fuel-unlikely-before-2030_53752.htm

Ammonia as fuel


Fuel prices LNG - LPG

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• Historically the price of propane is very volatile• One of the advantageous of LNG vs Propane is that the price is

very stable and easy for long term hedging.

• The price of LNG is based on the price of the underlying commodity which is natural gas, liquefaction costs and transportation costs

• The price of LPG is based on the price of oil

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Aug-13 Dec-14 May-16 Sep-17 Feb-19

USD/MT HFO LSMGO LPG

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EUR/MWh LNG vs LPG

LNG LPG


Deep emission cuts with Carbon Neutral Fuels

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Such fuels are synthesized from :atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) captured from emission point sources using carbon capture technologies

+carbon neutral hydrogen, produced from renewable energy sources

• The use of biomass fuels introduces strong constraints on land use that may favor the use of air capture

CNHC’s take advantage of an expansive already-built infrastructure created for gaseous and liquid fossil fuels, and therefore capable of a gradual deployment with minimum supply disruption

The electrochemical conversion of CO2 to fuels and feedstocks—the CO2 reduction reaction (CO2RR)— into high-energy-density liquid fuels using captured CO2 is an elegant solution that allows for integration of renewable electricity into the transportation system and in chemical production.

CNHC’s are the most viable alternative to H2, biofuels, nuclear energy

When CNHCs are considered, the competition is between :Developing a new distribution and use infrastructure .OR. Capturing CO2 and synthesizing a hydrocarbon.


Cost of Carbon Neutral Fuels

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Comparison of the cost of various chemicals between the current market price and the levelized cost from CO2 reduction assuming an electrolyzer cost of $500/kW, energy conversion efficiency of 60%, Faradaic efficiency of 90%, electricity cost of 2 ¢/kWh, and CO2 cost of 30$/ton // source : https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542435117300764

CO2 is a notoriously inert molecule, and catalysts are needed to activate and convert it into higher value products.Major advances in recent years have focused on nanostructured metal and metal-oxide-derived catalysts for the conversion of CO2 to fuels and feedstocks. CNHC’s are certainly not ready for large-scale deployment or that they will necessarily prove superior other alternatives. But they are promising enough to warrant research and development

LHV of fuels (MJ/kg)

Methane = 50 Ethylene = 47 Propanol = 31 Methanol =20 Ethanol=27

Methane appears as the best option of future fuel due to its :1. Min production cost in terms of USD/kJ (highest LCV)2. Low cost of fossil LNG which serves as the precursor of CN CH4


Future proof of LNG as marine fuel

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THC emissions (methane slip)

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Consumption

MT/year

Fuel CO2

emissions

MT/year

Annual THC

emissions

MT/year

Total C02

emissions

MT/year

Reduction in

GHG from

LNG

HFO 8,153 25,387 25,387

-10%LNG 6,537 17,977 16722,973

Pilot fuel 100 321

Reduction in GHG w/o THC : 28%

Operating Profile

• 5,500 running hours per year

• Operating speed 14 kn

• 65% laden

Engine Data

• THC = 3.5 g/kWh

• LNG GWP100=28

Standard B.Delta 82 - vs. - LNG fueled B.Delta 84


Mapping of the largest global methane sources

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Wetlands (anaerobic decay of vegetation) are the largest natural global CH4 source

Only 13% of total CH4 emission is due to Oil + NG

Source : Oxford Institute for Energy studies


Methane leaks can be avoided

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When burned for electricity, natural gas produces about half the carbon dioxide that coal does. The shift from coal to gas has helped lower CO₂ emissions from America’s power plants by 27% since 2005.

(study led by the Environmental Defence Fund, http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2018/06/20/science.aar7204, Jun.21, 2018)

Neither the E.P.A.’s estimates of leakage rates nor the higher estimates in the new study suggest that gas has crossed that threshold. Much of the leakage is fixable at relatively low cost.

The industry could reduce its methane emissions by 75 percent and that two-thirds of those reductions would pay for themselves because of the value of the saved gas.

A recent study found that natural gas power plants could actually be worse for climate change than coal plants, if their leakage rate rose above 4 %

The amount of methane leaked from U.S. oil and gas wells and related infrastructure in 2015 equalled abt2.3 % of the country’s overall natural gas output

The lost methane is worth an estimated $2 billion a year. Those emissions are avoidable, not inherent.

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2018/06/20/science.aar7204


Is NOx a Greenhouse Gas ?

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Nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions have both a cooling (through reduction of tropospheric ozone) and a

warming effect (due to its impact on methane lifetime and aerosol production).

But uncertainty of calculation is very high

Assumptions: For steady-state emissions of 1 Tg(N) yr, confidence intervals of ±20 to ±30 %, source : C. D. Holmes1, M. J. Prather1, and G. C. M. Vinken2

Effect RF

Short lived O3 +3.4 ± 0.85mWm−2

CH4 decrease −5.7 ± 1.3mWm−2

Long lived O3 reduction

from CH4 decrease

−1.7 ± 0.7mWm-2

Total RF from ship

NOx

−4.0 ± 2.0mWm−2

Breathing air with a high concentration of NOx can irritate airways in the human respiratory system.

NOx reacts with other chemicals in the air to form both particulate matter and ozone.


Cooling effect from sulphur

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Coal burning is the single largest man-made source of sulphur dioxide, accounting for about 50% of annual global emissions, with oil burning accounting for a further 25 to 30%.

The lifetime of sulphur dioxide molecules in the troposphere is a few days. Sulphur usually cycles from low-oxidation gas to sulphate particles and back to the surface in rain in less than a weeki

The Carbonyl Sulfide (COS) is an a exception. It is very stable in the troposphere, with a two-year residence time, and a large and relatively uniform distribution. It is the most abundant sulphur gas compound in the atmosphere (3 million tons/year, of which less than one third was related to human activity), it is so unreactive that it can be mixed up into the stratosphere

The aerosols in the stratosphere reflect incoming solar radiation, increasing the proportion of light that is reflected back, and thus having a cooling effect. This can be seen on a global scale after major volcanic eruptions, where the effects last for several years before the excess aerosol is removed from the atmosphere

Therefore reducing the SOx from shipping should not be accounted for adding in global warming

Thus, while aerosol emission reductions contribute to gradual warming through the 21st century, we find no evidence that aerosol emission reductions drive particularly rapid near-term warming.

In the near-term, as in the long-term, GHG increases are the dominant driver of warming

Source : The role of reduced aerosol precursor emissions in driving near-term warming


Global Bulk Carrier Trading & LNG Bunkering

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• 46 Ports supplying

LNG

• 120 LNG-fueled

ships in operation

(100 in Feb. 2017)

• 134 LNG-fueled

ships on order (101

in Feb. 2017)

• 6 Bunker Vessels

supplying LNG as

fuel

• Large container

players start to

commit to LNG:

CMA-CGM ordered

9 ships of 22K TEU

Source: GTT, Capital Link presentation, March

2018

CONFIDENTIAL | Preliminary & Non-binding | Subject to Revision 17

We should all become Greener !

Thank you for your attention

Athens, Nov.13 2018conference14.diorama.gr/images/presentations/Antonis-Trakakis.pdf · 14 Nitrogen...

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