ECONOMICS OF ASTEROID MINING SHEN GE NEHA SATAK HYERIM KIM KAI DUERFELD KIRAN KUMAR TIKARE.
Asteroid Mining International Project Initial Work
Transcript of Asteroid Mining International Project Initial Work
Asteroid Mining Project Overview
Shen Ge, Neha Satak, and Hyerim Kim
Outline
Mission
Work Breakdown Structure
Specialties
Work Schedule
Technical Overview
Space Economics
Astrodynamics
Questions & Answers
Mission
In two months, uncover a basic mission to
mine a target asteroid based on science,
engineering and economics.
Work Breakdown Structure
Mining Engineer:
Houshin Nejati
Astrodynamics:
Prasanna
Deshapriya
Geologist:
Jun Huang
Economist:
Kai Duerfeld
Mining & Systems:
Simeon Adebola
Economics & Art:
Diana Mutascu
Propulsion:
Shail Satak
Geologist:
Jayashree Sridhar
Project Manager:
Shen Ge
Project Manager:
Neha Satak
Project Manager:
Hyerim Kim
System Engineer:
Kiran Tikare
Specialties
Person Primary Specialty Secondary Specialty
Shen Ge Spacecraft design System engineering
Neha Satak Space economics Astrodynamics
Hyerim Kim Astrodynamics Spacecraft design
Houshin Nejati Mining Robots –
Microwave Drilling
Mining Robots – Other
Simeon Adebola Mining Robots – Mobility System engineering
Kiran Tikare System engineering Information technology
Jun Huang Planetary geology – Moon Planetary geology –
asteroids
Jayashree Sridhar Planetary geology Astrodynamics
Prasanna Deshapriya
Astronomy Astrodynamics
Kai Duerfeld Space economics Technology survey
Diana Mutascu Graphic design Space economics
Work Schedule
Week Task
June 24 – July 7 Assign roles, start
literature survey
July 8 – July 23 Start initial design
July 24 – July 25 Present initial design
July 26 – August 15 Conduct detailed design
August 16 – August 22 Compose report and final
presentation
August 23 – August 24 Present final design
Overview
Chart from Charles Gerlach
Growing Interest in Space Mining
Important Questions
Astrodynamics
and Propulsion
Asteroid
Composition
Mining
Technologies
Economic
Demand
Economic Demand
Image Credit: http://www.lubpedia.com/wp-
content/uploads/2013/03/HD-Pictures-of-Earth-from-Space-4.jpg
Space market:
Life support Construction
Propellant Refrigerant
Agriculture
Earth market:
Construction Electronics
Jewelry Transportation
Fuel cells Industrial
Types of Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs)
S-type
Stony
(silicates, sulfides,
metals)
C-type
Carbonaceous
(water, volatiles)
M-type
Metallic
(metals)
Materials from NEAs
Material Product
Raw silicate Ballast or shielding in space
Water and other volatiles Propellant in space
Nickel-Iron (Ni-Fe) metal Space structures
Construction on earth
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) Catalyst for fuel cells and auto
catalyzers on earth
Jewelry on earth
Semiconductor metals Space solar arrays
Electronics on earth
Accessibility Example
“Apollo-Type” Mission
Image Credit: Sonter’s Thesis
Low Delta-vs for Many NEAs
Compare!
Image Credit: Elvis, McDowell, Hoffman, and Binzel. “Ultra-low
Delta-v Objects and the Human Exploration of Asteroids.” Image Credit:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/
c/c9/Deltavs.svg
Mining Technology: Mobility
• Low gravity environment prevents use of wheeled rovers.
• Innovative mobility methods are developing.
Image Credit: Yoshida, Maruki, and
Yano. “A Novel Strategy for Asteroid
Exploration with a Surface Robot.”
Image Credit: Nakamura, Shimoda,
and Shoji. “Mobility of a Microgravity
Rover using Internal Electromagnetic
Levitation.”
Image Credit: Chacin and Yoshida.
“Multi-limbed Rover for Asteroid
Surface Exploration using Static
Locomotion.”
Mining Technology: Rock Extraction
Controlled Foam
Injection (CFI)
Electric Rockbreaking
Microwave Drilling Diamond Wire Sawing
Image Credits: Harper,
G.S. “Nederburg Miner.”
Mining Technology: Water Extraction
Image Credits: Zacny et al. “Mobile In-situ Water Extractor
(MISWE) for Mars, Moon, and Asteroids In Situ Resource
Utilization.”
Water ice extraction from soils
currently being developed by Honeybee
called the Mars In-situ Water Extractor
(MISWE).
Economics: Net Present Value
• Asteroid mining is economically justified only if the net
present value (NPV) of the material returned is
above zero. It is NOT just the cost of mining and
going there versus the profit obtained from resources.
Sonter’s NPV Equation
Corbit is the per kilogram Earth-to-orbit launch cost [$/kg]
Mmpe is mass of mining and processing equipment [kg]
f is the specific mass throughput ratio for the miner [kg mined / kg equipment / day]
t is the mining period [days]
r is the percentage recovery of the valuable material from the ore
∆v is the velocity increment needed for the return trajectory [km/s]
ve is the propulsion system exhaust velocity [km/s]
i is the market interest rate
a is semi-major axis of transfer orbit [AU]
Mps is mass of power supply [kg]
Mic is mass of instrumentation and control [kg]
Cmanuf is the specific cost of manufacture of the miner etc. [$/kg]
B is the annual budget for the project [$/year]
n is the number of years from launch to product delivery in LEO [years].
Ge and Satak NPV
where P = returned profit ($)
CM = Manufacturing cost ($)
CL = Launch cost ($) is equal to ms/c (mass of spacecraft) * uLV (unit mass cost)
CR = Recurring cost ($) is equal to B (annual operational expense) * T (total time)
CE = Reentry cost ($) is equal to Mreturned (mass returned) * fe (fraction of material sold on Earth) * uRV (unit mass cost)
𝐶𝑀 = 𝐶𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑟 + 𝐶𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒𝑐𝑟𝑎𝑓𝑡 𝐶𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑟 = 𝑀𝑚𝑝𝑒𝑢
𝑃 =𝑉𝑠 1 − 𝑓𝑒 + 𝑉𝑒𝑓𝑒 𝑀𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑒𝑑
(1 + 𝑖)𝑇
where,
Vs = Value in space ($)
Ve = Value on Earth ($)
fe = Fraction of material sold on Earth
𝐶𝑠/𝑐 = 106(225 +𝑀𝑚𝑝𝑒𝑝𝑓
8)
𝑝𝑓 =𝑒−∆𝑣𝑡/𝑣𝑒 − 𝑠𝑓
1 − 𝑠𝑓
where,
u = unit cost of miner ($/kg)
pf = payload fraction
sf = structural fraction
∆𝑣𝑡 = delta-v to asteroid
ve = exhaust velocity
Example Case:
1996 FG3
Preliminary baseline of ESA’s MarcoPolo-R Mission
Element Value Uncertainty
(1-sigma) Units
e .34983406668
87911 1.5696e-08
a 1.0541679265
97945 7.8388e-10 AU
q .68538407386
32947 1.6408e-08 AU
i 1.9917406207
71903 1.4433e-06 deg
node 299.73096661
80939 4.8879e-05 deg
peri 23.981176173
36174 4.8216e-05 deg
M 167.67133206
88418 1.4068e-06 deg
tp
2456216.3721
68471335
(2012-Oct-
15.87216847)
1.4204e-06 JED
period
395.33305146
70441
1.08
4.4095e-07
1.207e-09
d
yr
n .91062459529
7746 1.0157e-09 deg/d
Q 1.4229517793
32595 1.0581e-09 AU
Source: NASA JPL
Trajectory To 1996 FG3
NPV Comparisons
• Both mining time and total time for is
optimized for maximum returns.
• Greatest mining time ≠ best NPV
• Least total time ≠ best NPV
• Selling water at $200.00 per
liter (kg) yields a NPV of
$763,370,000.
NPV Dependency on Economics
• A good estimate of discount rate
is crucial for estimating a good
NPV.
• Selling water at a minimum of 187
USD/kg is necessary to break even.
• Even bringing back water to sell at
$7000/kg makes a profit since
launching >1500 kg of water is very
expensive.
Economics: Challenges
Calculate the price of the returned materials in
space (for space utilization) and on earth (for
use on earth). Both demand and supply need
to be considered.
Estimate the one-time and recurring costs of a
mining operation and technology development.
Find the most economical mining, processing,
and logistics.
Fundamental Questions of Economics
Which asteroid
to mine? Where and what
to refine? Where to sell?
C Type?
S Type?
M Type?
Other?
NEOs?
Main belt?
Near
asteroid?
Earth-
Moon L1?
Earth?
Water?
Silicates?
Iron?
Nickel?
Other?
Earth?
Space?
Economics: Parameters
• Space Tourism
• Space/Terrestrial Habitation
• Space/Terrestrial Manufacturing Demand
• Asteroids
• Moon
• Earth Supply
• Research and Development
• Manufacture of Equipment
• Project Operation Cost
Astrodynamics
More information:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov
Learn basic orbital
mechanics and
astrodynamics
Research on Near Earth
Asteroid
Design optimal trajectory
from Earth to valuable
Asteroid
- Research on trajectory
design method
- Find parameters to control
design
Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) Orbit Types
Getting from Earth To NEA
Interplanetary Super Highway
Solar System is interconnected by a vast system of tunnels
winding around the Sun. Invariant manifolds are
generated by the
Lagrange Points of all
the planets and their
moons and are found
to play an important
role in the formulation
of solar system.
It could be exploited to
obtain low-energy
interplanetary
spacecraft
trajectories.
Check this paper and webpage!! 1) Dynamical Systems, the Three-Body Problem and Space Mission Design, W. S. Koon, M. Lo et al., 2006
2) http://www.gg.caltech.edu/~mwl
Introduction to Space Propulsion
What you think of when you hear:
Space Propulsion
Chemical rockets: big, loud, fumes, explosive,
etc.
The word rocket is most often short for
chemical rockets
Types of chemical rockets?
Solid, liquid,
Types of rockets? i.e., not necessarily chemical
Chemical rockets
For Missions Requiring High Thrust
Planetary takeoff (launch rockets)
Planetary landing (Viking, Lunar Lander)
Apogee kick (GTO-GEO transfer motors)
Perigee kick (GTO to escape)
Rapid maneuvering
(proximity ops., spacecraft attitude control)
Part of stages-to-orbit (#STO), X-planes …
Electric Propulsion (EP)
Missions Requiring High Isp
Deep space missions
(∆V ≥ 2-3 km/s typically)
Long-term drag cancellation
Long-term formation flight
Planetary non-Keplerian orbits
(e.g., parallel to Saturn’s rings)
Missions where EP is Beneficial
Propulsion for high-power satellites
(Comsats, radar sats)
Orbit raising (LEO-high LEO, LEO-GEO)
End-of-Life de-orbiting
Orbit re-positioning
Orbit corrections
Two broad categories
Chemical (high thrust, low Isp)
So for quick accel/short trips
Electrical (low thrust, high Isp)
So for slow/long trips
Efficiency
Define efficiency as
Varies widely for different “EP” systems
Electrical: Broad range of power and Isp
Cost moderate to high (excluding power systems)
h =
T 2 / 2m
IV=Tu / 2
IV
Resistojets
Over 200 Aerojet EHTs have flown since 1983 for north-south station-keeping.
The MR501B generates up to 360 mN of thrust and specific impulses of 303 s at
greater than 50% efficiency with the storable propellant hydrazine (N2H4).
500 W Aerojet MR-501B Electrothermal Hydrazine Thruster (EHT) Resistojet
Electrothermal
Heated hydrazine, heated H2 or heated waste gas
High η, low Isp
Very simple
limited by material T
Can raise monoprop. N2H4 to Isp≈ 310 sec (Intelsats)
With H2, Isp≈ 700sec (but storage problems)
Allows efficient waste gas disposal (Space Station)
Arcjets
An electrical arc (stream of energetic electrons) is used to heat propellant that is
then expanded through a nozzle. Arcjets are used mostly for station-keeping.
Arcjets are robust and like resistojets, use storable propellants. However, thrust
efficiency usually peaks at 35%.
Hall Thrusters
e- B
B
B
B B
B
B
B
e- e-
Inner Electromagnet
Solenoid
Four outer electromagnet solenoids
Xe+
Thermionic Emitting Hollow Cathode
Xenon propellant ions accelerated by axial E field
Xe+
Xe+
Xe+
Xe+
Xe+
Anode Backplate
Neutral Xenon injection through anode backplate
E
E E
E
Electrons captured by radial magnetic field
Xe+
Xe+
Xe+
Anode Exit
V
e- Density
Anode Exit
V d
Aerojet BPT-4000 Hall Thruster Firing.
Thrust: 170-290 mN
Efficiency: > 50%
Input Power: 3 to 4.5 kW (into thruster)
Isp: 1750-3000 s
Propellant: Xe
Hall Thrusters
Ion Engines
Ion engines are the most efficient EP devices at converting input power to thrust. Ion
engines are used both as primary propulsion and for station-keeping.
Ion engines are used on commercial and scientific spacecraft. Key issues include grid
erosion and thrust density limitations from space-charge effects.
DS1: Oct: 1998 Launch
12 Advanced Technologies Including:
•3300 Isp Ion Propulsion System
•Fully Autonomous Control
•State-of-the-Art Diagnostics
•Concentrator Solar Arrays
Total Spacecraft Mass is 490 kg
•380 kg dry mass
•28 kg of hydrazine for chemical engines
•82 kg of xenon for ion engine
•Ion thruster on continuously for a year
DS1: First New Millennium Mission
Pulsed Plasma Thrusters
(PPT with Teflon propellant)
Typically η≅ 0.05-0.1; Isp ≅ 1000 1200sec;
P from 0.1 to 1 KW
Very short (s) pulses, widely controllable pulse rate
Excellent for precise maneuvering
Solid fuel, very simple systems
Very low efficiency
Difficulty handling large propellant mass
Some flight experience (VELA satellites)
Pulsed Plasma Thrusters
PPTs are used for precise spacecraft propulsion needs such
as formation flying and drag makeup. Pictured above is the
EO-1 Pulsed Plasma Thruster
PPTs
Isp: ~1000 s
Thrust Range: N-mN
Power: 10 W – 100 W
Peak Efficiency: <10%
Propellants: TeflonTM, Water, Xe
MPD thrusters have the highest power densities of any EP device. MPD thrusters
would be used as primary propulsion for large space vehicles.
Pictured above is a Lithium MPD thruster operating at 500 A — 20 V, and
at a propellant flow rate of 20 mg/s at Princeton University
MPD Thrusters
Isp: 1000-8000 s
Thrust Range: mN – >100 N
Power: 10 kW - 10 MW
Peak Efficiency: ~50%
Propellants: H2, Lithium, Xe
Magnetoplasmadynamic (MPD)
Thrusters
VASIMR
•VASIMR (Variable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket) uses Lorentz force to accelerate
plasma to produce thrust.
•3 main sections: low energy helicon plasma source, ion-cyclotron resonance heating section
(ICRH), & magnetic nozzle.
•The main desirable features of this engine is that it shouldn’t incur degradation, hi thrust, Isp, &
efficiency, however still in experimental phase as efficiency is still a major key issue.
VASIMR
Questions & Answers (Q&A)
Why did I get chosen?
You are chosen since you have demonstrated great passion
in working on a field. Some of you are already in the space
field while others want to get into the field or at least
participate in it as more than a hobby.
How much do I get paid?
You will be initially paid $100.00 for the two months. If we
work well together and the project continues, this can
increase. We understand that for many of you this is not a
lot of money but consider this as token pay which can pave
the way to greater things in our organization in the future.
What’s next?
See next slide!
Q&A: What’s Next?
Decide an initial meeting for all 12 of us for
project initialization for a time in the week of
June 23 – June 29, 2013.