Associate Administrator...United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service U.S....
Transcript of Associate Administrator...United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service U.S....
United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
U.S. Agricultural Trade SituationFebruary 2019 Forecast
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The Importance of Trade for U.S. Agriculture
Nuffield International Contemporary Scholars ConferenceMarch 13, 2019
Clay M. Hamilton
Associate Administrator
United States Department of AgricultureForeign Agricultural Service
U.S. Agricultural Trade SituationFebruary 2019 Forecast
What is the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)?
FAS Coverage in 171 Countries
Foreign Agricultural Service
American In Country
FAS Regional coverage
No Coverage Or Staff
United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
U.S. Agricultural Trade SituationFebruary 2019 Forecast
What is Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)?
Supports U.S. Farmers & Ranchers to Export their Products
• Trade Policy
• Export Promotion
• Trade Capacity Building
• Market Intelligence
U.S. Agricultural Trade SituationFebruary 2019 Forecast
FAS Market Intelligence
Assists U.S. Farmers to Export their Products
➢ GAIN Reports
➢ PSD Online
➢ GATS Trade Database
➢ Export Sales
➢ Trade Reports
United States Department of AgricultureForeign Agricultural Service
Korea, Colombia,
Panama FTAs
U.S. Agricultural Trade SituationFebruary 2019 Forecast
Source: USDA FAS Global Agricultural Trade System, FATUS
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Bill
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Do
llars
152.3
141.5
128.0
Records
Exports
Imports
Trade Surplus13.5
43.1
NAFTA
China in WTO
CAFTA-DR
Fiscal Year
United States Department of AgricultureForeign Agricultural Service
More than 20% of U.S. Ag Production is Exported
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Exports are a critical source of income for a wide range of ag products
81%76%
66%
58% 57%54% 52%
49% 48% 46%
36%
23% 22% 22% 21%17% 15%
11%6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Source: USDA/FAS/PSD database, 2017/18 marketing year dataU.S. Dairy Export Council(1) All Dairy Products: Calendar Year 2017
(2) Pistachios: Marketing Year 2016/2017(3) Corn & corn embedded in ethanol, DDGS, and HFCS exports 6
United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
U.S. Agricultural Trade SituationFebruary 2019 Forecast
China and India Drive Potential Growth:“Middle Class” Households, in Middle Income Countries,Up 71% From 2016 Levels
Source: Global Insight’s Global Consumer Markets data as analyzed by OGA
142176
25766
728
150
151
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Colombia
Vietnam
Malaysia
Taiwan
Philippines
Thailand
South Korea
Turkey
Egypt
Brazil
Mexico
Russia
Indonesia
India
China
Households w/ Real PPP incomes greater than $20,000 (millions)
2016 Proj. gains by 2026
Million Households
United States Department of AgricultureForeign Agricultural Service
Global Meat Demand Fueling Grain & Feed Production
Source: USDA Production, Supply & Distribution Database
30
40
50
60
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90
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110
120M
MT
(in
CW
E fo
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eef
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d p
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)Global Meat Production
Beef Pork Chicken Meat
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China East Asia(minusChina)
SoutheastAsia
South Asia
Changes in Beef, Pork & Poultry Consumption (2008-2018)
17.4%
28.8%
44.1%48.3%
Percent Increase
United States Department of AgricultureForeign Agricultural Service
As WTO Stalls, Countries Turn to FTAs for Market Access, U.S. Falling Behind
Source: WTO
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100
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300W
TO N
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gre
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tsGlobal Preferential Trade Agreements
U.S.
EU-28
ROW
United States Department of AgricultureForeign Agricultural Service
U.S. Agricultural Trade SituationFebruary 2019 Forecast
U.S. Competitors Have More Market Access to the WorldCanada and Mexico make up most of population access for the United States
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Thailand Indonesia Australia NewZealand
Canada Mexico India China EU U.S. Brazil
Bill
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f P
eo
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Population Access Through Free Trade Agreements (FTAs)
North America
Oceania
South America
Central America & Caribbean
Africa
Europe
Asia + Middle East
Note: includes only FTAs that were notified to the WTO, as of September 2018, and CPTPPSource: World Trade Organization, World Bank (2017)
Through ASEAN FTAs, Thailand and Indonesia have access to China and India (2.7 billion people combined).
Orange: Mexico and Canada
465 million
2.8 billion
United States Department of AgricultureForeign Agricultural Service
U.S. Agricultural Trade SituationFebruary 2019 Forecast
U.S. Trade Agenda
Trade Agreements• USMCA – Improves dairy and poultry access, fair treatment for
wheat and other agricultural products, updated SPS rules
• Korea – Updated KORUS
• Future potential trade agreements – Japan, UK, EU, Kenya
Enforcing Commitments• China – Ongoing negotiations working toward fair trade
• India – WTO Counter Notification concerning India’s trade-distorting domestic support prices for pulses (02/12/19)
U.S. Agricultural Trade SituationFebruary 2019 Forecast
Over 28% of Total U.S. Agricultural Exports are Shipped to Canada and Mexico
Source: USDA FAS/Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) – BICO-HS10
Canada15%
Mexico14%
Japan9%
EU9%China
7%
S. Korea6%
Rest of World40%
FY 2018 U.S. Ag Exports to World (Total: $140 B)
$39.7 Billion to NAFTA
United States Department of AgricultureForeign Agricultural Service
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84% 99% 73% 82% 100% 93%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
Val
ue
in B
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nD
olla
rs
United States Rest of World
Mexican Agricultural Imports & U.S. Market Share 2018
Source: IHS Markit, Global Trade Atlas (GTA), BICO-HS6
U.S. Market Share for Total Ag: 65%
United States Department of AgricultureForeign Agricultural Service
U.S. Agricultural Trade with China (1999 – 2018)
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25V
alu
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U.S. Trade Balance U.S. exports to China U.S. Imports from China
Source: USDA FAS Global Agricultural Trade System BICO-HS10
U.S. Ag Exports to China - 53%China has retaliatory tariffs
on 99% of U.S. agricultural imports in response to U.S.
232 tariffs on steel & aluminum and 301 tariffs
$25.9B
United States Department of AgricultureForeign Agricultural Service
U.S. Agricultural Trade SituationFebruary 2019 Forecast
Top U.S. Agricultural Exports to JapanTotal U.S. Agricultural Exports to Japan in 2018 = $12.9 billion
Source: USDA FAS Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) – BICO-HS10
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Corn Beef & BeefProducts
Pork & PorkProducts
Soybeans Wheat ProcessedVegetables
Hay Tree Nuts Fresh Fruit
Val
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in B
illio
nU
S$2016-2018 Average
United States Department of AgricultureForeign Agricultural Service
U.S. Agricultural Trade SituationFebruary 2019 Forecast
FAS Here to Help: Partnerships Support Continued Export Growth
• Market Access Program (MAP): Marketing and Promotion Program ($200 million)
• Foreign Market Development Program (FMD): Create, expand and maintain long-term export markets ($27 million)
• Emerging Markets Program (EMP): Market development in emerging economies
• Agricultural Trade Promotion Program (ATP): Mitigation for retaliatory tariffs: $200M to develop new markets
• Additional programs: GSM-102, Quality Samples Program, Technical/Scientific support programs
United States Department of AgricultureForeign Agricultural Service
U.S. Agricultural Trade SituationFebruary 2019 ForecastSummary
• Opportunities for U.S. agricultural exports globally, FAS programs can help U.S. producers find and expand those markets
• Retaliatory tariffs hurting U.S. ag exports, which also reduces U.S. ag trade surplus.
• U.S. competitiveness jeopardized by third party agreements that put U.S. products at disadvantage
• U.S. needs FTAs to maintain, if not gain, market share in new trade environment
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