FY 2011 & 2012 U.S. Agricultural Trade...
Transcript of FY 2011 & 2012 U.S. Agricultural Trade...
FY 2011 & 2012 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts
Slides prepared by Office of Global Analysis/FAS
Initial FY 2012 ForecastsExports = $137 billionImports = $105 billionSurplus =$32 billion
USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade”Released on August 31, 4:00 pm EST
Changes Since May in 2011 ForecastExports no change at $137.0 billionImports $1.5 billion to $94.5 billionSurplus $1.5 billion to $42.5 billion
U.S. Agricultural Trade
$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90
$100$110$120$130$140
'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12f
Billi
on $
Exports
ImportsTrade Surplus
Bulk export volume drops but prices remain firm with FY 2012 even at $137 billion while surplus falls to $32 billion on strong imports
Records
94.5
114.9
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137
105
42.5
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137
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U.S. Agricultural Exports by MonthRecord October-June Exports Led by Wheat and Cotton
FY 09FY 07 FY 08
FY 10
$Billion
$82 billion
$96 billion$115 billion
$108.6
FY 11
$137
Exports Fall Since March
$8
$9
$10
$11
$12
$13
$14
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept
$ B
illion
Recorded Exports and Projected Pace To Meet $137 Billion Forecast For 2011
Actual FY 2011 Exports
Minimum Needed in Remaining Months to Meet Current Forecast
Shipments decline but are still on track to meet forecast
FY 2012 Exports Lower volumes of cotton, soybean, and wheat offset strong prices and greater horticultural product exports in FY 2012
Grains, Oilseeds & CottonWheat, Coarse Grains & Rice – higher
prices for corn and feeds outweigh lower wheat volume
Soybeans – tighter U.S. supplies and greater export competition
Cotton – smaller domestic crop and increased global supplies
Livestock & Horticultural ProductsLivestock & Products – Growth in pork,
poultry and animal by products slightly outweighs lower dairy and beef exports
Horticultural Products – up on greater demand from Canada, Japan, and EU
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Grains and Feeds
Oilseeds Livestock and Poultry
Cotton Hort
Bill
ion
Do
llars
Export Value Even Year to Year
2%
-3% 1%
-27%
12%
FY 2
011
FY 2
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Exports to Middle East and N. Africa Fall in FY 2012Total exports in FY 2012 forecast even with FY 2011
-$500
-$300
+$500 +$500
-$500 -$500 +$500
Revised FY 2011 Forecast: $38.4 Billion $400 Million
Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products
Export Value ($Bil)
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17
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25
29
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37
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 12f
ActualAug 2011 ForecastAug 2012 Forecast
Includes corn gluten feed/meal2012 Key DevelopmentsWheat volume down –competition from Russia and UkraineCorn value up on tight U.S. suppliesDDGs are up on higher value
Wild CardsChina’s need for corn importsU.S. corn crop Global feed demand in the face of high prices
2011 Key DevelopmentsWeaker exports of corn and rice
Initial FY 2012 Forecast: $39.0 Billion
Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products
91113151719212325272931
'02 '04 '06 '08 10 12f
Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Aug 11 Forecast
Aug 12 Projection
Excludes corn gluten feed/meal
Revised FY 2011 Estimate: $29.3 Billion $0.9 BillionInitial FY 2012 Forecast: $28.3 Billion
2012Key DevelopmentsSoybean export volume drops as yield reductions cut production estimate.Rising biodiesel production and reduced crush halves soybean oil export volume.Reduced export volumes more than offset higher unit values.
Wild Cards U.S. crop prospects China’s soybean import demand
2011Key Developments Slow China sales pace reduces soybean export volume.
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Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
May 11 Forecast
Aug 11 Projection
Export Outlook for CottonRevised FY 2011 Estimate: $9.0 Billion Unchanged Initial FY 2012 Forecast: $6.6 Billion
2012 Key Developments Export volume down due to lower production and stronger competition Unit values are lower on greater global supplies
Wild Cards U.S./foreign crops Textile demand
2011Key Developments Slightly lower volume offsets higher unit values
Record
Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock & PoultryInitial FY 2012 Forecast: $27.1 BillionRevised FY 2011 Estimate: $26.9 Billion $400 Million2012Key Developments Pork higher on strong Asian demand (South Korea, China, and Japan) Poultry virtually unchanged as slightly higher prices offset reduced volumes Beef down on lower volumes due to tight supplies Dairy down due to lower prices
Wild Cards Changes in BSE protocols Ongoing SPS trade issues
2011Key Developments Higher volumes and values across the meat sector
Export Value ($Bil)
10121416182022242628
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12f
Actual
Aug 11 Forecast
Aug 12 Forecast
Export Outlook for Horticultural ProductsRevised FY 2011 Estimate: $25.5 Billion $500 MillionInitial FY 2012 Forecast: $28.0 Billion
Export Value ($Bil)
1012141618202224262830
'99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11f
ActualAug 11 ForecastAug 12 Projection
Record
2012Key Developments Long-term growth trend continues Strong exports to Canada, EU, and Japan Tree nut exports higher due primarily to China’s demand for almonds, pistachios and walnuts
Wild Cards Economic uncertainty in key markets
2011Key Developments Stronger Chinese demand for tree nuts
FY 2012 Imports Imports are forecast up 11 percent from 2011 on high prices for tropical and horticultural products and greater meat volumes
Imports $10.5 billion to a record $105.5 billion
Tropical Products $2.7 billion – strong prices for sugar, coffee beans, and cocoa
Horticultural Products $4.5 billion – higher processed fruit , fresh fruit, juices, and wine
Grain and Oilseeds $2.1 billion – stronger veg. oils, grain products, and feeds
Livestock, Dairy, & Poultry $1.0 billion – Greater demand due to improving economy and tight domestic suppliers