Asset Risk Management

Asset Risk Management

DNV Consulting

[email protected] by: Sture Angelsen ( )Kim A. Jørgensen ([email protected])

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Version Slide 210 May 2006

Asset Risk Management Services - Vision

Det Norske Veritas Consulting are offering Asset Risk Management Services in different forms, tailored to client needs. These slides provides guidance to the content of Asset Risk Management Services within DNV Consulting.

…Maximum Revenue at lowest possible Cost without compromising Safety


Asset Risk Management Services - Services

Asset Risk Management Services incorporates analysis and optimisation of well systems, sub sea systems, process plant systems, transportation systems and reliability analysis of safety systems. Such analysis is in general categorised as Reliability-, Availability- and Maintainability Analysis (RAM), and is often conducted during early phases of projects to compare alternative designs, but also during operational phases to aid in decision-making regarding operational procedures, e.g. maintenance approaches and/or operating strategies.

Our services:

Asset Investment risk assessment and solution screening

Asset Technology and lifecycle economics

Asset Appraisal

Asset Optimisation

Asset Safety System Reliability


Objectives

Feasibility Design Operations Optimisation

Compare performance of various development options (compare NPV):

New technology (subsea separation vs. multi-phase pumping)

Assess impact of ‘new’environment on asset performance (Harsh vs. Benign waters)

Impact of having spare production wells

Compare performance of various development options (compare NPV):

New technology (subsea separation vs. multi-phase pumping)

Assess impact of ‘new’environment on asset performance (Harsh vs. Benign waters)

Impact of having spare production wells

Define minimum availability/reliability targets for specific equipment items to meet overall project availability target

Forecasting of OPEX production efficiencies for input into project economics

Predict intervention vessel work load for input into mid/long term planning

Define minimum availability/reliability targets for specific equipment items to meet overall project availability target

Forecasting of OPEX production efficiencies for input into project economics

Predict intervention vessel work load for input into mid/long term planning

What is optimum intervention strategy?

What is impact of improving intervention response time?

How many spares should I keep?

What will be the impact of ageing facilities/wells on achieved performance

What is optimum intervention strategy?

What is impact of improving intervention response time?

How many spares should I keep?

What will be the impact of ageing facilities/wells on achieved performance


RAM Analysis - Main tasks

1. Establish the study basis - concept definition

2. Hierarchical system breakdown

3. Develop failure model

4. Develop intervention and repair model

5. Develop simulation model and calculations

6. Identify contributors to production unavailability and key differentiators

7. Identification of improvements (changes in concepts/design and/or operating strategies)


RAM Analyses - MotivationCash-flow

Time

Revenue

CAPEXOPEX

RISKEX

Profit = Max {Revenue - CAPEX - OPEX - RISKEX}


RAM Analyses - Motivation

Risk DriversRisk Drivers

Ranked Risks from RAM AssessmentRanked Risks from RAM Assessment

OPE

X/R

ISK

EX ($

)O

PEX

/RIS

KEX

($)

Rank RisksRank Risks



OPE

X/R

ISK

EX ($

)O

PEX

/RIS

KEX

($)

Expe

nditu

re ($

)Ex

pend

iture

($)

Unwanted pictureUnwanted picture



OPE

X/R

ISK

EX ($

)O

PEX

/RIS

KEX

($)

Expe

nditu

re ($

)Ex

pend

iture

($)

Wanted pictureWanted picture



CO

ST

Alt 1 Alt 2 Alt 3

OPEX

RISKEX

CAPEXCheapest?

Best



OPEX/RISKEX ($)

CAPEX ($)

Total CostOptimized ExpenditureOptimized Expenditure

Profit = Revenue - CAPEX - OPEX - RISKEX

CAPEX ($)

CO

ST($

)


Deliverables

The main objective of the RAM analysis DNV offers, is to be a basis for decision-making wrt. solutions and measures towards a more profitable and safe operation of your plants. Possible outcomes of a RAM analysis are listed below:

- Reduced downtime and thus increased production- More stable product delivery to clients - Reduced operational- and maintenance costs- Increased safety- Higher confidence towards clients

Contribution to unavailability for the SSL consept60 MSm3/sd

0.0 %start up start +

3wells21+3wells

endplateau

no comp

startcomp

endplateaucomp

MEG distribution system

Onshore terminal

Multiphase pipeline (2*30")

Export riser SLOR

Compression platform

Import riser SLOR

Completion, cluster, infieldflowlines and Control System

Contribution to unavailability for the SSL consept60 MSm3/sd

0.0 %start up start +

3wells21+3wells

endplateau

no comp

startcomp

endplateaucomp

MEG distribution system

Onshore terminal

Multiphase pipeline (2*30")

Export riser SLOR

Compression platform

Import riser SLOR

Completion, cluster, infieldflowlines and Control System

Reference Projects


LNG transport chain modelling

Jetty1

CASE

OptimiseO

Jetty2

TimeUSeast

Start

StartRoundTrip

Season

08.02.200500:00ti

Factory

StoresContent

USgulf

SelectDest

Docking&Offhire

a

b

TimeUSgulf

SailHome

Season

TimeStatistics

Season

NoVisibilitycount

event

Vessel_Init

StoresContent

StoresContent

NoVisibility

NoVisibility

OptimiseOptimiser

JettiesAvailable

JettiesAvailable

change

#ULLoading

LoadingResource

USeast

StrongWind

StrongWind

StrongWind

a

b

SailOut

Season 0 is summer1 is winter

USeast

USeast

USgulf

USgulf

USeastUSgulf

P SI

F R

O

AtlanticWeather

JettiesAvailable

CRITICAL ISSUEHow many LNG ships and what storage capacities are needed to ensure LNG production 24/7?

Security of delivery (Reliability)

SOLUTION

Building a discrete event simulation model of the transport chain in Extend

Including effects of:- Weather- Vessel off-hire- Vessel docking- Seasonal variations- Lack of product- Inability to unload

VALUE DELIVEREDDetermination of optimal fleet and vessel size

Determination of optimal storage capacity onshore

Identification of bottlenecks

Ability to test different scenarios regarding speed, fleet size, vessel size, storage capacity, weather predictions etc


Life cycle analysis during concept selectionHydro – Ormen Lange

CRITICAL ISSUE

The Ormen Lange field is the first deepwater discovery to be developed offshore Norway

located 130 km from the West Coast of Norway at a depth of about 1000 meters

extremely rough seabed conditions, long tie-back distance and demanding weather conditions

SOLUTION

DNV developed a production availability and intervention model to quantitatively assess the financial consequences associated with equipment failures

VALUE DELIVERED

solutions were ranked with respect to the ability to meet future sales gas demands and the NPV of deepwater interventions

enabling the client to find the right balance between capital expenditures, revenue and operating expenditures.


Concept selection – GjøaGaz de France

CRITICAL ISSUESMake the optimal field development decision for a field with complex risk and uncertainty picture

Statoil develops the field, but GdF takes over in the production phase. Gjøa is GdF’s first operation

SOLUTIONEstablish an all-inclusive economic model to rank alternative development concepts

Review of: - Technical and economical content of proposed concepts- Relevance and criticality of the identifies parts of the defined concepts- Key project external risks- GdF’s decision criteria

Account for costs of failing equipment (RiskEx)

Assess value of investing in flexibility and robustness

VALUE DELIVEREDRisk-based ranking of alternative development concepts

Tool to debottleneck and optimise the selected concept

Reference documentation describing Best Practice uncertainty assessment to the GdF organisation

NPV FPSO Subsea Compliant Tower

SubseaM ean=943,2374

FPSOM ean=-1419,586

CPTM ean=1181,808

F36: X <=4084,795%

F36: X <=-2233,665%

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

Values in Thousands

Val

ues

in 1

0^ -4

http://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/baldpate/index.html

http://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/balder/index.html

http://www.gazdefrance.com/EN/index.php


Operational cost reduction – mature fieldsNorsk Hydro – Brage

CRITICAL ISSUEReduce OPEX without compromising production and safety

Reduce manning

SOLUTIONExtensive DNV experience in operational cost cutting

Technical operational & maintenance competence

Facilitation of the change process

Statement of the feasibility of the proposed concept

VALUE DELIVEREDOperational cost reduction by 25% per year


http://www.dnv.com/

Asset Risk Management

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