Assessment of Damage and Losses after Disasters (PDNA)

ByAlfred Opere

Training of Trainers’ workshop on Early Warning Systems for Climate Resilient Development and Adaptation to Climate Change

1-10 January 2015Nairobi, Kenya

Introduction

• Disaster cuts across all sectors• Any assessment method must integrate all key

sectors• Key sectors:-Productive sector ( Agric & livestock, tourism,

fisheries, commerce & industry)-Social sector (Housing, Education & health)-Infrastructure sector ( water & sanitation,

Electricity, transport & communication)

Definition of Disaster effects

• Damage (Immediate effects)

-total or partial destruction of physical assets

-occur during the event itself

-measured in physical units and valued at replacement cost

• Losses(Medium term effects)

-changes in economic flows

-occur after the natural event over a relative long period

-valued at current price

Definition….cont’d

• Total Effects: Damage+Losses• Losses result in changes of economic flows e.g-production not obtained and sales not made,

and higher production costs-higher operational costs and lower revenue in

the provision of essential services-Unexpected expenditures (humanitarian

assistance, removal of debris etc.)

Typical Damage and Losses

Damage:-Housing and household

goods-Hospital, schools &

equipments-Agricultural lands &

irrigation systems-Roads & bridges-Water & Electricity

systems

Losses:-production losses in

agric., fishery, livestock, tourism, commerce, industry etc.

-Higher operational costs and lower revenue in electricity, water & transport

Typical steps in DLNA

• Develop baseline for assessment• Develop post-disaster situation• Estimate damage & Losses on a sector by

sector • Estimate total value of damage & losses• Estimate impact on personal/family income

Pre-Disaster situation

• Baseline of physical assets within affected area, before disaster (D)

• Baseline of performance on production and sales within affected area, expected before disaster (L)

Post-Disaster situation

• Field survey to determine state (total or partial destruction) of physical assets in each sector

• Develop characteristics of physical assets (by size, capacity, construction material, etc)

• Obtain prevailing repair and reconstruction costs

• This can be through field suvey or aerial photo analysis

Uses of DL assessment

• To quantitatively define financial needs for economic recovery and reconstruction after disasters

• To define priorities for attention in geographical, sectorial & special groups

• To ascertain the capacity of governments to conduct post-disaster programs

• To provide quantitative basis for monitoring progress of post-disaster programs

Conclusion

• DLNA is data intensive: data collection, dissemination & sharing is an issue that must be addressed at all levels

• Capacity building in data analysis, assessment methods in the region is also critical