ASOK 3
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
A SYNOPS IS OFA SYNOPS IS OF SUSTA INAB IL I TY RESEARCHSUSTA INAB IL I TY RESEARCH
IN HAWAI ` IIN HAWAI ` I AND ONAND ON KAUA` IKAUA` I
•• GLOBAL WARMINGGLOBAL WARMING •• RESOURCE L IM I TSRESOURCE L IM I TS • SOC IAL INEQUITYSOC IAL INEQUITY
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
Measu r i ng G loba l CO2 F rom Hawa i ` iMeasu r i ng G loba l CO2 F rom Hawa i ` i
INCREASING
EXPONENTIALLY
Source: Mauna Loa Observatory: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
CO2 G rowth Ra te sCO2 G rowth Ra te s What Exponentiality Looks Like
Source: Mauna Loa Observatory: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
HAWAI` I EMISS IONSHAWAI ` I EMISS IONS
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
EMISS IONS EMISS IONS TT RENDS BY SECTORRENDS BY SECTOR
MMTCO2e
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
II S LAND EMISS IONSSLAND EMISS IONS
TONS PER CAPITA
Source: HI Climate Change Task Force, Emissions Inventory, 2008
6.0
13.2
16.1
17.8
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
K IUC K IUC EMISS IONSEMISS IONS TREND TREND
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
I SLANDISLAND PERFORMANCEPERFORMANCE
MEASURESMEASURES
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
RESOURCE USE PER CAP I TA ON KAUA` IRESOURCE USE PER CAP I TA ON KAUA` I Still going up?
POWERPOWER
WATER
WASTE
Vehicles (per 10 people) Power (kWh per person) Water (Mgd per 100 people) Waste (Klbs per person)
CARS
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
POPULAT ION FUTURESPOPULAT ION FUTURES
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
LOOMING DEPENDENCYLOOMING DEPENDENCY
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
I S LANDER COMPOS I T IONISLANDER COMPOS I T ION
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
POPULAT ION D ISTR IBUT ION NOWPOPULAT ION D ISTR IBUT ION NOW
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
POPULAT ION RED ISTR IBUT ION?POPULAT ION RED ISTR IBUT ION?
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
KK AUA` I ’ S RECENT TRACK RECORDAUA` I ’ S RECENT TRACK RECORD
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
ECONOMIC OVERSHOOT?ECONOMIC OVERSHOOT?
SPENDING
WAGES
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
KAUA` I ’ S SUPPLY “CHAIN”KAUA` I ’ S SUPPLY “CHAIN”
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
EE QUITY IN HOUS ING?QUITY IN HOUS ING?
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
HOUS ING FOR WHOM?HOUS ING FOR WHOM?
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
GROWTH FOR WHOM?GROWTH FOR WHOM?
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
FUTURE ENERGY FUTURE ENERGY SS I TES?I TES?
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
I S LANDISLAND ECOSYSTEMSECOSYSTEMS
CONDIT IONSCONDIT IONS
& & PROSPECTSPROSPECTS
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
HOW’S THE WATER?HOW’S THE WATER?
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
FR I ENDLY TRADEWINDS?FR I ENDLY TRADEWINDS?
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
Hawa i `Hawa i ` ii I s Downwind O f Amer i c a I s Downwind O f Amer i c a
NORTH PACIFIC CYCLE
Source: NASA JPL, http://www-airs.jpl.nasa.gov/News/Features/Features20060403/
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
Hawa i `Hawa i ` ii I s I s Al sA l s oo Downwind O f ADownwind O f A s is i aa
DIRECT FROM WEST PACIFIC
Source: NASA JPL, http://www-airs.jpl.nasa.gov/News/Features/Features20060403/
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
F U T U R E S H O R E L I N E ?F U T U R E S H O R E L I N E ?
Source: TKI mapping, based on Chip Fletcher, http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/coasts/sealevel/ChipsTalk.html
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
HAWAI`I’S “COLD WALL”; A Hurricane Diverter
Storm Tracks: East & Central Pacific, 1965 - 2006
Stephen Miller on Hawaii’s “Cold Wall” 1:30 – 3:15
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
KK AUA` I RA INFALLAUA` I RA INFALL by 2100 : by 2100 : 34 – 79% decrease
Elevated
Cloud Base
Reduced Mountain Area Producing Rain
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
RA INFALLRA INFALL OUTLOOK BY I SLAND OUTLOOK BY I SLAND
Stephen Miller, FWS ecologist at HCA conference ‘07, predicted that a temperature increase of 1.5 degrees C would push the cloud base up to about 831 meters (2726’), a 2.3 degree C increase would cause it to rise to 943 meters (3093’), and a 3.7 degree C increase would result in a cloud base at 1,169 meters (3835’).
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
Kaua i ’ s Mes i c Fo re s t : Then & NowKaua i ’ s Mes i c Fo re s t : Then & Now
THEN
NOWNOW
Source: Hawaii Biodiversity & Mapping Program, http://hbmp.hawaii.edu/projects.htm
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
Alaka i Na t i ve B i rd Hab i t a t : A l aka i Na t i ve B i rd Hab i t a t : 85% l o s s w i t h 2 °C85% lo s s w i t h 2 °C wa rm ing wa rm ing
Source: Modeling the fate of endemic birds, Benning/LaPointe/Atkinson/Vitousek http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/99/22/14246.pdf
CURRENCURRENTT
FUTUREFUTURE
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
"Hawaii needs "Hawaii needs wayways to s to transition a wet forest to a transition a wet forest to a
mesic forestmesic forest in a spiral of in a spiral of continually movcontinually moving ing
conservation targets."conservation targets."
Stephen MStephen Milleriller, , EEcologistcologist, , USFWSUSFWS HCA Annual Conference
July 25, 2007, http://kauaian.net/blog/?p=880
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
THERE’S THERE’S MOREMORE……
Source: http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsSLRPotentialUSEffects.html
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
I M M I N E N T T H R E A T SI M M I N E N T T H R E A T S T O K A U A ` I E C O S Y S T E M ST O K A U A ` I E C O S Y S T E M S
•• HOTTERHOTTER (faster increase mauka(faster increase mauka**)) •• DR I ERDR I ER (more extreme rain events)(more extreme rain events)
•• LOWERLOWER (faster(faster sea level rise) sea level rise)
•• R I SK I ERR I SK I ER (m(more hurricanes)ore hurricanes)
•• S I CKERS I CKER (multiple disease(multiple disease vectors) vectors)
•• D IRT I ERD IRT I ER (more polluted air)(more polluted air)
Tom Giambelluca, Honolulu Advertiser, 25 Mar 08
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
SYMPTOMsSYMPTOMs of unsustainabilityof unsustainability
•• Emissions growthEmissions growth ((ipcc)ipcc)
•• Ecosystem lossEcosystem loss ((MEA)MEA)
•• InequityInequity ((Hawken, Hawken, blessed unrest)blessed unrest)
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
CONCLUS IONCONCLUS ION :: Sustainability begets conservation,Sustainability begets conservation,
NotNot the other w the other way arounday around
We cannot “save” habitats withoutWe cannot “save” habitats without saving humanssaving humans
MISS IONMISS ION ::
Plan for kaua`I adaptation toPlan for kaua`I adaptation to climate changeclimate change
BBuild uild resilienceresilience as we as we migratemigrate
our towns and ecosystemsour towns and ecosystems mamaukauka
& & trimtrim our footprint our footprint
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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
TOWARDTOWARD
Sustainability thinking:Sustainability thinking:
Hawai`iHawai`i cannot cannot REREsolvesolve
any any ONEONE of our of our CHALLENGESCHALLENGES without without REREsolvingsolving
ALLALL of them together of them together