Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity ...
Transcript of Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity ...
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Preliminary.Pleasedonotciteorcirculate.
ArtificialIntelligenceandtheModernProductivityParadox:
AClashofExpectationsandStatistics∗
ErikBrynjolfsson,MITSloanSchoolofManagementandNBERDanielRock,MITSloanSchoolofManagement
ChadSyverson,UniversityofChicagoBoothSchoolofBusinessandNBER
September2017Abstract.Weliveinanageofparadox.Systemsusingartificialintelligencematchorsurpasshumanlevelperformanceinmoreandmoredomains,leveragingrapidadvancesinothertechnologiesanddrivingsoaringstockprices.Yetmeasuredproductivitygrowthhasfalleninhalfoverthepastdecade,andrealincomehasstagnatedsincethelate1990sforamajorityofAmericans.Wedescribefourpotentialexplanationsforthisclashofexpectationsandstatistics:falsehopes,mismeasurement,redistribution,andimplementationlags.Whileacasecanbemadeforeachexplanation,wearguethatlagsarelikelytobethebiggestreasonforparadox.ThemostimpressivecapabilitiesofAI,particularlythosebasedonmachinelearning,havenotyetdiffusedwidely.Moreimportantly,likeothergeneralpurposetechnologies,theirfulleffectswon’tberealizeduntilwavesofcomplementaryinnovationsaredevelopedandimplemented.Theadjustmentcosts,organizationalchangesandnewskillsneededtoforsuccessfulAIcanbemodeledasakindofintangiblecapital.Aportionofthevalueofthisintangiblecapitalisalreadyreflectedinthemarketvalueoffirms.However,mostnationalstatisticswillfailtocapturethefullbenefitsofthenewtechnologiesandsomemayevenhavethewrongsign.
∗Contactinformation:Brynjolfsson:[email protected];MITSloanSchool,E62-414,100MainStreet,Cambridge,MA02142;Rock:[email protected];100MainStreet,Cambridge,MA02142;Syverson:[email protected];UniversityofChicagoBoothSchoolofBusiness,5807S.WoodlawnAve.,Chicago,IL60637.
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Thediscussionaroundtherecentpatternsinaggregateproductivitygrowth
highlightsaseemingcontradiction.Ontheonehand,thereareastonishingexamplesof
potentiallytransformativenewtechnologiesthatcouldgreatlyincreaseproductivityand
economicwelfare(seee.g.BrynjolfssonandMcAfee,2014).Therearesomeearlyconcrete
signsofthesetechnologies’promise,therecentleapsinartificialintelligence(AI)
performancebeingthemostprominentexample.However,atthesametime,measured
productivitygrowthoverthepastdecadehasslowedsignificantly.Thisdecelerationis
large,cuttingproductivitygrowthbyhalformoreofitslevelinthedecadeprecedingthe
slowdown.Itisalsowidespread,havingoccurredthroughouttheOECDand,morerecently,
amongmanylargeemergingeconomiesaswell(Syverson2017).1
WethusappeartobefacingareduxoftheSolow(1987)Paradox:wesee
transformativenewtechnologieseverywherebutintheproductivitystatistics.
Inthispaper,wereviewtheevidenceandexplanationsforthemodernproductivity
paradoxandproposearesolution.Namely,thatthereisnoinherentinconsistencybetween
forward-lookingtechnologicaloptimismandbackward-lookingdisappointment.Bothcan
simultaneouslyexist.Indeed,therearegoodconceptualreasonstoexpectthemto
simultaneouslyexistwhentheeconomyundergoesthekindofrestructuringassociated
withtransformativetechnologies.Inthispaperweargueandpresentsomeevidencethat
theeconomyisinsuchaperiodnow.
SourcesofTechnologicalOptimism
PaulPolman,Unilever’sCEO,recentlyclaimedthat“Thespeedofinnovationhas
neverbeenfaster.”Similarly,BillGates,Microsoft’sco-founderobservesthat“Innovationis
movingatascarilyfastpace.”VinodKhoslaofKhoslaVenturessees“thebeginningsof...[a]
rapidaccelerationinthenext10,15,20years”.EricSchmidt,ExecutiveChairmanof
AlphabetInc.,believes“we’reentering…theageofabundance[and]duringtheageof
abundance,we’regoingtoseeanewage…theageofintelligence”.RayKurzweilfamously
predictsthatTheSingularity,whenAIsurpasseshumans,willoccursometimearound
1Aparallelyetmorepessimisticallyorienteddebateaboutpotentialtechnologicalprogressistheactivediscussionaboutrobotstakingjobsfrommoreandmoreworkers(e.g.,BrynjolfssonandMcAfee,2011;AcemogluandRestrepo,2017;Bessen,2017;AutorandSalomons,2017).
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2045.2Assertionsliketheseespeciallyarecommonamongtechnologyleadersandventure
capitalists.
Inpart,thesereflectthecontinuingprogressofITinmanyareas,fromcore
technologyadvanceslikefurtherdoublingsofbasiccomputerpower(butfromeverlarger
bases)tosuccessfulinvestmentintheessentialcomplementaryinnovationslikecloud
infrastructure,andnewservice-basedbusinessmodels.Butthebiggersourceofoptimism
isthewaveofrecentimprovementsinAI,especiallymachinelearning.Machinelearning
representsafundamentalchangefromthefirstwaveofcomputerization.Historically,most
computerprogramssucceededbymeticulouslycodifyinghumanknowledge,step-by-step,
mappinginputstooutputsasprescribed.Incontrast,machinelearningsystemsfigureout
therelevantmappingontheirown,typicallybybeingfedverylargedatasetsofexamples.
Usingthesemethods,machineshavemadeimpressivegainsinperceptionandcognition,
twoessentialskillsformosttypesofhumanwork.Forinstance,errorratesinlabelingthe
contentofphotosonImageNet,adatasetofover10millionimages,havefallenfromover
30%in2010tolessthan5%in2016andmostrecentlyaslowas2.2%withSE-ResNet152
intheILSVRC2017competition(seeFigure1).3Errorratesinvoicerecognitiononthe
Switchboardspeechrecordingcorpus,oftenusedtomeasureprogressinspeech
recognition,haveimprovedfrom8.5%to5.5%overthepastyear(Saonetal.2017).The
fivepercentthresholdisimportant,becausethatisroughlytheperformanceofhumansat
eachofthesetasksonthesametestdata.
Whilenotatprofessionalhumanperformanceyet,Facebook’sAIResearchteam
recentlyimproveduponthebestmachinelanguagetranslationalgorithmsavailableusing
convolutionalneuralnetsequencepredictiontechniques(Gehringetal.2017).Deep
learningtechniqueshavealsobeencombinedwithreinforcementlearning,apowerfulset
2http://www.khoslaventures.com/fireside-chat-with-google-co-founders-larry-page-and-sergey-brin
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil#2045:_The_Singularity
https://www.theguardian.com/small-business-network/2017/jun/22/alphabets-eric-schmidt-google-artificial-intelligence-viva-technology-mckinsey
3http://image-net.org/challenges/LSVRC/2017/results.ImageNetincludeslabelsforeachimage,originallyprovidedbyhumans.Forinstance,thereare339,000labeledasflowers,1,001,000asfood,188,000asfruit,137Kasfungus,etc.
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oftechniquesusedtogeneratecontrolandactionsystemswherebyautonomousagentsare
trainedtotakeactionsgivenanenvironmentstatetomaximizefuturerewards.Though
nascent,advancesinthisfieldareimpressive.Inadditiontotheirvictoriesinthegameof
Go,GoogleDeepMindhasachievedsuperhumanperformanceinmanyAtarigames
(Fortunatoetal.2017).
Thesearenotabletechnologicalmilestones.Buttheycanalsochangetheeconomic
landscape,creatingnewopportunitiesforbusinessvaluecreationandcostreduction.For
example,asystemusingdeepneuralnetworkswastestedagainst21boardcertified
dermatologistsandmatchedtheirperformanceindiagnosingskincancer(Estevaetal.
2017).TheneuralnetworksatFacebookareusedforover4.5billiontranslationseach
day.4
Figure1.AIvs.HumanImageRecognitionErrorRates
Anincreasingnumberofcompanieshaverespondedtotheseopportunities.Google
nowdescribesitsfocusas“AIfirst”,whileMicrosoft’sCEOSatyaNadellasaysAIisthe 4https://code.facebook.com/posts/289921871474277/transitioning-entirely-to-neural-machine-translation/]
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“ultimatebreakthrough”intechnology.TheiroptimismaboutAIisnotjustcheaptalk.
TheyaremakingheavyinvestmentsinAI,asareApple,Facebook,andAmazon.Asof
September2017,thesecompaniescomprisethefivemostvaluablecompaniesintheworld.
Meanwhilethetech-heavyNasdaqcompositestockindexmorethandoubledbetween
2012and2017.AccordingtoCBInsights,globalinvestmentinprivatecompaniesfocused
onAIhasgrownevenfaster,increasingfrom$589millionin2012toover$5billionin
2016.5
TheDisappointingRecentReality
Whilethetechnologiesdiscussedaboveholdgreatpotential,thereislittlesignthat
theyhaveyetaffectedaggregateproductivitystatistics.Laborproductivitygrowthratesin
abroadswathofdevelopedeconomiesfellinthemid-2000sandhavestayedlowsince
then.Forexample,aggregatelaborproductivitygrowthintheU.S.averagedonly1.3%per
yearfrom2005to2016,lessthanhalfofthe2.8%annualgrowthratesustainedover1995
to2004.Fully28of29othercountriesforwhichtheOECDhascompiledproductivity
growthdatasawsimilardecelerations.Theunweightedaverageannuallaborproductivity
growthratesacrossthesecountrieswas2.3%from1995to2004butonly1.1%over2005
to2015.6What’smore,realmedianincomehasstagnatedsincethelate1990sandnon-
economicmeasuresofwell-being,likelifeexpectancy,havefallenforsomegroups(Case
andDeaton,2017)
Figure2replicatestheConferenceBoard’sanalysisofitscountry-levelTotal
EconomyDatabase(ConferenceBoard,2016).Itplotshighlysmoothedannualproductivity
growthrateseriesfortheU.S.,othermatureeconomies(whichcombinedmatchmuchof
theOECDsamplereferredtoabove),emerginganddevelopingeconomies,andtheworld
overall.TheaforementionedslowdownsintheU.S.andothermatureeconomiesareclear
inthefigure.Thefigurealsorevealsthattheproductivitygrowthaccelerationinemerging
5Andthenumberofdealsincreasedfrom160to658.Seehttps://www.cbinsights.com/research/artificial-intelligence-startup-funding/6Theseslowdownsarestatisticallysignificant.FortheU.S.,wheretheslowdownismeasuredusingquarterlydata,equalityofthetwoperiods’growthratesisrejectedwithat-statisticof2.9.TheOECDnumberscomefromannualdataacrossthe30countries.Here,thenullhypothesisofequalityisrejectedwithat-statisticof7.2.
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anddevelopingeconomiesduringthe2000sendedaroundthetimeoftheGreatRecession,
causingarecentdeclineinproductivitygrowthratesinthesecountriestoo.
TheseslowdownsdonotappeartosimplyreflecteffectsoftheGreatRecession.In
theOECDdata,28ofthe30countriesstillexhibitproductivitydecelerationsif2008-09
growthratesareexcludedfromthetotals.Cette,Fernald,andMojon(2016),usingother
data,alsofindsubstantialevidencethattheslowdownsbeganbeforetheGreatRecession.
Figure 2. Smoothed Average Annual Labor Productivity Growth (Percent) by Region
Bothcapitaldeepeningandtotalfactorproductivity(TFP)growthleadtolabor
productivitygrowth,andbothseemtobeplayingaroleintheslowdown(e.g.,Fernald
2014andOECD2015).Disappointingtechnologicalprogresscanbetiedtoeachofthese
components.TFPdirectlyreflectssuchprogress.Capitaldeepeningisindirectlyinfluenced
bytechnologicalchangebecausefirms’investmentdecisionsrespondtoimprovementsin
currentorexpectedcapitalquality.
Thesefactshavebeenreadbysomeasreasonsforpessimismabouttheabilityof
newtechnologieslikeAItogreatlyaffectproductivityandincome.Gordon(2015)argues
thatproductivitygrowthhasbeeninlong-rundecline,withtheIT-drivenaccelerationof
1995to2004beingaone-offaberration.Whilenotclaimingtechnologicalprogresswillbe
nilinthecomingdecades,Gordonessentiallyarguesthatwehavebeenexperiencingthe
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new,low-growthnormalandshouldexpecttocontinuetodosogoingforward.Cowen
(2011)similarlyoffersmultiplereasonswhyinnovationmaybeslowatleastforthe
foreseeablefuture.Bloometal.(2017)documentthatinmanyfieldsoftechnological
progress,researchproductivityhasbeenfalling,whileNordhaus(2015)findsthatthe
hypothesisofaspeedupoftechnology-drivengrowthfailsavarietyoftests.
Thispessimisticviewoffuturetechnologicalprogresshasenteredintolong-range
policyplanning.TheCongressionalBudgetOffice,forinstance,reducedits10-yearforecast
foraverageU.S.annuallaborproductivitygrowthfrom1.8percentin2016(CBO2016)to
1.5percentin2017(CBO2017).Whileperhapsmodestonitssurface,thatdropimplies
U.S.GDPwillbeconsiderablysmaller10yearsfromnowthanitwouldinthemore
optimisticscenario—adifferenceofequivalentsizetoalmost$600billionin2017.
PotentialExplanationsfortheParadox
Therearefourprincipalcandidateexplanationsfortheconfluenceoftechnological
optimismandpoorproductivityperformancethattheworldfindsitselfin:1)falsehopes,
2)mismeasurement,3)concentrateddistributionandrentdissipation,4)implementation
andrestructuringlags.7
Falsehopes
Thesimplestpossibilityisthattheoptimismaboutpotentialtechnologiesis
misplacedandunfounded.Perhapstechnologieswon’tbeastransformativeasmany
expect,andwhiletheymighthavemodestandnoteworthyeffectsonspecificsectors,their
aggregateimpactwillbesmall.Inthiscase,theparadoxwillberesolvedinthefutureas
realizedproductivitygrowthneverescapesitscurrentdoldrums,ultimatelyforcingthe
optimiststomarktheirbeliefstomarket.
Historyandsomecurrentexamplesofferaquantumofcredencetothispossibility.
Certainlyonecanpointtomanytechnologiesthatdidliveuptoinitiallyoptimistic
expectations.Nuclearpowerneverbecametoocheaptometer,andfusionenergyhasbeen
20yearsawayfor60years.Marsmaystillbeckon,butit’sbeenover40yearssinceEugene
7Tosomeextent,theseexplanationsparalleltheexplanationsfortheSolowParadox(Brynjolfsson,1993).
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Cernanwasthelastpersontowalkonthemoon.Flyingcarsnevergotofftheground8and
passengerjetsnolongerflyatsupersonicspeeds.EvenAI,perhapsthemostpromising
technologyofourera,iswellbehindMarvinMinsky’s1967predictionthat“Withina
generationtheproblemofcreating‘artificialintelligence’willbesubstantiallysolved”.
Ontheotherhand,thereremainsacompellingcaseforoptimism.Asweoutline
below,itisnotdifficulttoconstructback-of-the-envelopescenarioswhereevenamodest
numberofcurrentlyexistingtechnologiescouldcombinetosubstantiallyraiseproductivity
growthandsocietalwelfare.Indeed,knowledgeableinvestorsandresearchersarebetting
theirmoneyandtimeonexactlysuchoutcomes.Thus,whilewerecognizethepotentialfor
over-optimism—andtheexperiencewithearlypredictionsforAImakesanespecially
relevantreminderforustobesomewhatcircumspectinthisessay—wejudgethatitwould
behighlypreliminarytodismissoptimismatthispoint.
Mismeasurement
Anotherpotentialexplanationfortheparadoxisoutputandproductivity
mismeasurement.Inthiscase,itisthepessimisticreadingoftheempiricalpast,notthe
optimismaboutthefuture,thatismistaken.Indeed,thisexplanationimpliesthatthe
productivitybenefitsofthenewwaveoftechnologiesarealreadybeingenjoyed.Itisjust
thateconomicstatisticsarenotuptothetaskofaccuratelymeasuringthesebenefits,
makingtheslowdownofthepastdecadeillusory.This“mismeasurementhypothesis”has
beenforwardedinseveralworks(e.g.,Mokyr2014;Alloway,2015;Feldstein2015;Hatzius
andDawsey2015;Smith2015).
Thereisaprimafaciecaseforthemismeasurementhypothesis.Manynew
technologies,likesmartphones,onlinesocialnetworks,anddownloadablemedia,involve
time-intensiveconsumptionwithlittlemonetarycost.Theymightdeliversubstantialutility
eveniftheyaccountforasmallshareofGDPduetotheirlowrelativeprice.Guvenen,
Mataloni,Rassier,andRuhl(2017)alsoshowhowgrowingoffshoreprofitshiftingcanbe
anothersourceofmismeasurement.
8Atleastnotyet:https://kittyhawk.aero/about/.
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However,asetofrecentstudieshaveshownthereisgoodreasontothinkthat
mismeasurementisnottheentire,orevenasubstantial,explanationfortheslowdown.
CardarelliandLusinyan(2015);Byrne,Fernald,andReinsdorf(2016);Nakamuraand
Soloveichik(2015);andSyverson(2017),eachusingdifferentmethodologiesanddata,
presentevidencethatmismeasurementisnottheprimaryexplanationfortheproductivity
slowdown.Afterall,whilethereisconvincingevidencethatmanyofthebenefitsoftoday’s
technologiesarenotreflectedinGDPandthereforeproductivitystatistics,thesamewas
undoubtedlytrueinearliererasaswell.
ConcentratedDistributionandRentDissipation
Athirdpossibilityisthatthegainsofthenewtechnologiesarealreadyattainable,
butthroughacombinationofconcentrateddistributionofthosegainsanddissipative
effortstoattainorpreservethem(assumingthetechnologiesareatleastpartially
rivalrous),theireffectonaverageproductivitygrowthismodestoverall,andisvirtuallynil
forthemedianworker.Forinstance,twoofthemostprofitableusesofAItodatehavebeen
fortargetingandpricingonlineads,andforautomatedtradingoffinancialinstruments,
bothapplicationswithmanyzero-sumaspects.
Oneversionofstoryassertsthatthebenefitsofthenewtechnologiesarebeing
enjoyedbyarelativelysmallfractionoftheeconomy,butthetechnologies’narrowly
scopedandrivalrousnaturecreateswasteful“goldrush”-typeactivities.Boththoseseeking
tobeoneofthefewbeneficiaries,aswellasthosewhohaveattainedsomegainsandseek
toblockaccesstoothers,engageinthesedissipativeefforts,destroyingmanyofthe
benefitsofthenewtechnologies.9
Recentresearchofferssomeindirectsupportforelementsofthisstory.Productivity
differencesbetweenfrontierfirmsandaveragefirmsinthesameindustryhavebeen
increasinginrecentyears(Andrews,Criscuolo,andGal,2016;FurmanandOrszag,2015).
Differencesinprofitmarginsbetweenthetopandbottomperformersinmostindustries
havealsogrown(McAfeeandBrynjolfsson,2009).Asmallernumberofsuperstarfirmsare
gainingmarketshare(Autoretal,2017,Brynjolfssonetal.2008)whileworkers’earnings 9Stiglitz (2014) offers a different mechanism where technological progress with concentrated benefits in the presence of restructuring costs can lead to increased inequality and even, in the short run, economic downturns.
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areincreasinglytiedtofirm-levelproductivitydifferences(Song,Price,Guvenen,Bloom,
andvonWachter2015).Thereareconcernsthatindustryconcentrationisleadingto
substantialaggregatewelfarelossesduetothedistortionsofmarketpower(e.g.,De
LoeckerandEeckhout,2017;GutiérrezandPhilippon,2017).Furthermore,growing
inequalitycanleadtostagnatingmedianincomesandassociatedsocio-economiccosts,
evenwhentotalincomecontinuestogrow.
Whilethisevidenceisimportant,itisnotdispositive.Theaggregateeffectsof
industryconcentrationarestillunderdebate,andthemerefactthatatechnology’sgains
aren’tevenlydistributedisnoguaranteethatresourceswillbedissipatedintryingto
capturethem—especiallythattherewouldbeenoughwastetoerasenoticeableaggregate
benefits.
ImplementationandRestructuringLags
Eachofthesethreepossibilities,especiallythefirsttwo,reliesonexplainingaway
thediscordancebetweenhighhopesanddisappointingstatisticalrealities.Oneofthetwo
elementsissomehow“wrong”.Inthemisplacedoptimismstory,theexpectationsfor
technologyareoffbase.Inthemismeasurementexplanation,thetoolsweusetogauge
empiricalrealityaren’tuptothetaskofaccuratelydoingso.Andintheconcentrated
distributionstories,theprivategainsforthefewmaybeveryreal,buttheydon’ttranslate
intobroadergainsforthemany.
Butthereisafourthexplanationthatallowsbothhalvesoftheseemingparadoxto
becorrect.Itassertsthattherereallyisgoodreasontobeoptimisticaboutthefuture
productivitygrowthpotentialofnewtechnologies,whileatthesametimerecognizingthat
recentproductivitygrowthhasbeenlow.Thecoreofthisstoryisthatittakesa
considerabletime—oftenmorethaniscommonlyappreciated—tobeabletosufficiently
harnessnewtechnologies.Ironically,thisisespeciallytrueforthosetechnologies
importantenoughtoultimatelyhaveanimportanteffectonaggregatestatisticsand
welfare.Thatis,thosewithsuchbroadpotentialapplicationthattheyqualifyasgeneral
purposetechnologies(GPTs).Indeed,themoreprofoundandfar-reachingthepotential
restructuring,thelongerthetimelagbetweentheinitialinventionofatechnologyandits
fullimpactontheeconomyandsociety.
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Thisexplanationimpliestherewillbeaperiodwherethetechnologiesare
developedenoughthatonecanimaginetheirpotentiallytransformativeeffectseven
thoughtheyhavehadnodiscernableeffectonrecentproductivitygrowth.Itisn’tuntilthe
necessarybuild-upandimplementationtimehaspassedthatthepromiseofthetechnology
actuallyblossomsintheaggregatedata.
Therearetwomainsourcesofthedelaybetweenrecognitionofanewtechnology’s
potentialanditsmeasureableeffects.Oneisthatittakestimetobuildthestockofthenew
technologytoasizesufficientenoughtohaveanaggregateeffect.Theotheristhat
complementaryinvestmentsarenecessarytoobtainthefullbenefitofthenewtechnology,
andittakestimetodiscoverwhatthesecomplementsareandtoimplementthem.While
thefundamentalimportanceofthecoreinventionanditspotentialforsocietymightbe
clearlyrecognizableattheoutset,themyriadnecessaryco-inventions,obstaclesand
adjustmentsneededalongthewayawaitdiscoveryovertime,andtherequiredpathmay
belengthyandarduous.Nevermistakeaclearviewforashortdistance.
Thisexplanationresolvestheparadoxbyacknowledgingthatitstwoseemingly
contradictorypartsarenotactuallyinconflict.Rather,theyareinsomesensebothnatural
manifestationsofthesameunderlyingphenomenonofbuildingandimplementinganew
technology.
Whileeachofthefirstthreeexplanationsfortheparadoxmighthaveapartin
describingitssource,theyalsofaceseriousquestionsintheirabilitytodescribekeyparts
ofthedata.Wefindthefourth,theimplementationandrestructuringlagsstory,themost
compellinginlightoftheevidencewediscussbelow.Thusitisthefocusofourexplorations
intheremainderofthispaper.
TheArgumentinFavoroftheImplementationandRestructuringLagsExplanation
Implicitorexplicitinthepessimisticviewofthefutureisthattherecentslowdown
inproductivitygrowthportendsslowerproductivitygrowthinthefuture.Webeginby
establishingoneofthemostbasicelementsofthestory:thatslowproductivitygrowth
todaydoesnotruleoutfasterproductivitygrowthinthefuture.Infact,theevidenceis
clearthatitisbarelypredictiveatall.
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Totalfactorproductivitygrowthisthecomponentofoveralloutputgrowththat
cannotbeexplainedbyaccountingforchangesinobservablelaborandcapitalinputs.Ithas
beencalleda“measureofourignorance”(Abramovitz,1956).Itisaresidual,soan
econometricianshouldnotbesurprisedifitisnotverypredictablefrompastlevels.Labor
productivityisasimilarmeasure,butinsteadofaccountingforcapitalaccumulationsimply
dividestotaloutputbythelaborhoursusedtoproducethatoutput.
Figure3andFigure4plot,respectively,U.S.productivityindicessince1948and
productivitygrowthbydecade.Thedataincludeaveragelaborproductivity(LP),average
totalfactorproductivity(TFP)andFernald’s(2014)utilization-adjustedTFP(TFPua).
Figure3.U.S.TFPandLaborProductivityIndices,1948-2016(1990=100)
Figure4.U.S.TFPandLaborProductivityGrowth(%)byDecade
0
20
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60
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180
1948
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1954
1957
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1963
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2002
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LP
TFP
TFPua
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Productivityhasconsistentlygrowninthepost-warera,albeitatdifferentratesat
differenttimes.Despitetheconsistentgrowth,however,pastproductivitygrowthrates
havehistoricallybeenpoorpredictorsoffutureproductivitygrowth.Inotherwords,the
productivitygrowthofthepastdecadetellsuslittleaboutproductivitygrowthinforthe
comingdecade.Lookingonlyatproductivitydata,itwouldhavebeenhardtopredictthe
decreaseinproductivitygrowthattheendofthe1960sorforeseethebeneficialimpactof
ITinthe1990s.
Asitturnsout,whilethereissomecorrelationinproductivitygrowthratesover
shortintervals,thecorrelationbetweenadjacentten-yearperiodsisnotstatistically
significant.Wepresentbelowtheresultsfromaregressionofdifferentmeasuresof
averageproductivitygrowthonthepreviousperiod’saverageproductivitygrowthfor10-
yearintervalsaswellasscatterplotsofproductivityforeach10yearagainstthe
productivityinthesubsequentperiod.ThedataaresourcedfromtheFernald(2014)TFP
andutilization-adjustedTFPseriesandspanfrom1948to2016(annually).10TheR2of
theseregressionsislowinallcases.Thecorrelationcoefficientsinthefollowingtable
10Available: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/indicators-data/total-factor-productivity-tfp/
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Avg.LP
Avg.TFP
Avg.TFPua
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representthecorrelationinproductivitygrowthseriesforagiventen-yearperiodandthe
subsequentten-yearperiod.
CorrelationCoefficients(1stvs.2nd10-yearPeriod)
LaborProductivity 0.09TFP 0.15TFP(util.adj.) 0.17
RegressionresultsforLaborProductivity,TFP,andutilization-adjustedTFPare
includedbelow.ForLaborProductivity,theR2is0.009.Whiletheinterceptissignificantly
differentfromzero(productivityispositive,onaverage),thecoefficientontheprevious
periodisnotsignificant.ForTFPtheR2is0.023,andagainthecoefficientontheprevious
periodisnotstatisticallysignificant.Utilization-adjustedTFPisslightlyhigher,butstill
smallandstatisticallyinsignificant.
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00.51
1.52
2.53
3.54
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Subsequent10Years
First10YearPeriod
10YearAvg.LaborProducWvityGrowth(%)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Subsequent10Years
First10YearPeriod
10YearAvg.TFPGrowth(%)
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50
Subsequent10Years
First10YearPeriod
10YearAvg.TFP(uWl.adj.)Growth(%)
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Theoldadagethat“pastperformanceisnotpredictiveoffutureresults”applieswell
totryingtopredictproductivitygrowthintheyearstocome,especiallyinperiodsofa
decadeorlonger.Historicalstagnationdoesnotjustifyforward-lookingpessimism.
ATechnology-DrivenCaseforProductivityOptimism
Simplyextrapolatingrecentproductivitygrowthratesforwardisnotagoodwayto
estimatethenextdecade’sproductivitygrowth.Doesthatimplywehavenohopeatallof
predictingproductivitygrowth?Wedon’tthinkso.
Insteadrelyingonlyonpastproductivitystatistics,wecanconsiderthe
technologicalandinnovationenvironmentweexpecttoseeinthenearfuture.Inparticular,
weneedtostudyandunderstandthespecifictechnologiesthatactuallyexist,andmakean
assessmentoftheirpotential.
Onedoesnothavetodigtoodeeplyintothepoolofexistingtechnologiesorassume
incrediblylargebenefitsfromanyoneofthemtomakeacasethatexistingbutstillnascent
technologiescanpotentiallycombinetocreatenoticeableaccelerationsinaggregate
productivitygrowth.Webeginbylookingatafewspecificexamples.Wewillthenmakethe
casethatAIisaGPT,withbroaderimplications.
First,let’sconsidertheproductivitypotentialofautonomousvehicles.Accordingto
theUSBureauofLaborStatistics,in2016therewere3.5millionpeopleworkinginprivate
industryas“motorvehicleoperators”ofonesortoranother(thisincludestruckdrivers,
taxidrivers,busdrivers,andothersimilaroccupations).Supposeautonomousvehicles
weretoreduce,oversomeperiod,thenumberofdriversnecessarytodothecurrent
workloadto1.5million.Wedonotthinkthisisafar-fetchedscenariogiventhepotentialof
thetechnology.Totalnonfarmprivateemploymentinmid-2016was122million.
Therefore,autonomousvehicleswouldreducethenumberofworkersnecessarytoachieve
thesameoutputto120million.Thiswouldresultinaggregatelaborproductivity
(calculatedusingthestandardBLSnonfarmprivateseries)increasingby1.7percent(=
122/120).Supposingthistransitionoccurredover10years,thissingletechnologywould
provideadirectboostof0.17percenttoannualproductivitygrowthoverthatdecade.
Thisissignificant,anditdoesn’tincludemanypotentialproductivitygainsfrom
complementarychangesthatcouldaccompanythediffusionofautonomousvehicles.For
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instance,self-drivingcarsareanaturalcomplementtotransportation-as-a-servicerather
thanindividualcarownership.Thetypicalcariscurrentlyparked95%ofthetime,making
itreadilyavailableforitsownerorprimaryuser(Morris,2016).However,inlocationswith
sufficientdensity,aself-drivingcarcouldbesummonedondemand.Thiswouldmakeit
possibleforcarstoprovideusefultransportationservicesforalargerfractionofthetime,
reducingcapitalcostsperpassenger-mile,evenafteraccountingforincreasedwear-and-
tear.Thus,inadditiontotheobviousimprovementsinlaborproductivityfromreplacing
drivers,capitalproductivitywouldalsobesignificantlyimproved.
Asecondexampleiscallcenters.Asof2015,therewereabout2.2millionpeople
workinginover6,800callcentersintheUnitedStatesandhundredsofthousandsmore
workashome-basedcallcenteragentsorinsmallersites.11Improvedvoice-recognition
systemscoupledwithintelligencequestion-answeringtoolslikeIBM’sWatsonmight
plausiblybeabletohandle60-70%ormoreofthecalls,especiallysince,inaccordance
withtheParetoprinciple,alargefractionofcallvolumeisduetovariantsonasmall
numberofbasicqueries.IfAIreducedthenumberworkersby60%,itwouldincreaseUS
laborproductivityby1%,perhapsagainspreadover10years.Again,thiswouldlikelyspur
complementaryinnovations,fromshoppingrecommendationandtravelservices,tolegal
advice,consulting,andreal-timepersonalcoaching.
Beyondlaborsavings,advancesinAIhavethepotentialtoboosttotalfactor
productivity.Inparticular,energyefficiencyandmaterialsusagecouldbeimprovedin
manylarge-scaleindustrialplants.Forinstance,ateamfromGoogleDeepMindrecently
trainedanensembleofneuralnetworkstooptimizepowerconsumptioninadatacenter.
Bycarefullytrackingthedataalreadycollectedfromthousandsofsensorstracking
temperatures,electricityusage,pumpspeeds,thesystemlearnedhowtomake
adjustmentsintheoperatingparameters.Asaresult,theywereabletoreducetheamount
ofenergyusedforcoolingby40%comparedtothelevelsachievedbyhumanexperts.The
algorithmwasageneral-purposeframeworkdesignedtoaccountcomplexdynamics,soit
iseasytoseehowsuchasystemcouldbeappliedtootherdatacentersatGoogle,orindeed
11https://info.siteselectiongroup.com/blog/how-big-is-the-us-call-center-industry-compared-to-india-and-philippines
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aroundtheworld.Overall,datacenterelectricitycostsintheUSareabout$6billionper
year,includingabout$2billionjustforcooling.12
What’smore,similarapplicationsofmachinelearningcouldbeimplementedina
varietyofthecommercialandindustrialactivities.Forinstance,manufacturingaccounts
forabout$2.18trillionofvalue-addedeachyear.ManufacturingcompanieslikeGEare
alreadyusingAItoforecastproductdemand,futurecustomermaintenanceneeds,and
analyzeperformancedatacomingfromsensorsontheircapitalequipment.Recentworkon
trainingdeepneuralnetworkmodelstoperceiveobjectsandachievesensorimotorcontrol
atthesametimehaveyieldedrobotsthatcanperformavarietyofhand-eyecoordination
tasks(e.g.unscrewingbottlecapsandhangingcoathangers)(Levineetal.2016).Liuetal.
(2017)trainedrobotstoperformanumberofhouseholdchores,likesweepingand
pouringalmondsintoapan,usingatechniquecalledimitationlearning.13Inthisapproach,
therobotlearnstoperformataskusingarawvideodemonstrationofwhatitneedstodo.
Thesetechniqueswillsurelybeimportantforautomatingmanufacturingprocessesinthe
future.Theresultssuggestthatartificialintelligencemaysoonimproveproductivityin
householdproductiontasksaswell,whichin2010wereworthasmuchas$2.5trillionin
nonmarketvalue-added(Bridgmanetal.2012).
Whiletheseexamplesareeachsuggestiveofnon-trivialproductivitygains,theyare
onlyafractionofthesetofapplicationsforAIandmachinelearningthathavebeen
identifiedsofar.JamesManyikaandhiscolleaguesanalyzed2000tasksandestimatedthat
about45%oftheactivitiesthatpeoplearepaidtoperformintheUSeconomycouldbe
automatedusingexistinglevelsofAIandothertechnologies.Theystressthatthepaceof
automationwilldependonfactorsotherthantechnicalfeasibility,includingthecostsof
automation,regulatorybarriersandsocialacceptance.
ArtificialIntelligenceisaGeneralPurposeTechnology
ImportantasspecificapplicationsofAImaybe,wearguethatthemoreimportant
economicseffectsofAI,machinelearning,andassociatednewtechnologiesstemfromthe
12According to personal communication, August 24, 2017 with Jon Koomey, Arman Shehabi and Sarah Smith of Lawrence Berkeley Lab.13Videos of these efforts available here: https://sites.google.com/site/imitationfromobservation/
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factthattheyembodythecharacteristicsofgeneralpurposetechnologies(GPTs).
BresnahanandTrajtenberg(1996)arguethataGPTshouldbepervasive,abletobe
improveduponovertime,andbeabletospawncomplementaryinnovations.
Thesteamengine,electricity,theinternalcombustionengine,andcomputersare
eachexamplesofimportantgeneralpurposetechnologies.Eachofthemnotonlyincreased
productivitydirectly,butalsobyspurringimportantcomplementaryinnovations.For
instance,thesteamenginenotonlyhelpedpumpwaterfromcoalmines,itsmostimportant
initialapplication,butalsospurredtheinventionmoreeffectivefactorymachineryand
newformsoftransportationlikesteamshipsandrailroads.Inturn,theseco-inventions
helpedgiverisetoinnovationsinsupplychainsandmassmarketing,toneworganizations
withhundredsofthousandsofemployees,andeventoseeminglyunrelatedinnovations
likestandardtime,whichwasneededtomanagerailroadschedules.
AI,andinparticularmachinelearning,certainlyhasthepotentialtobepervasive,to
beimproveduponovertime,andtospawncomplementaryinnovations,makingita
candidateforanimportantGPT.
AsnotedbyAgrawal,Gans,andGoldfarb(2017),thecurrentgenerationofmachine
learningsystemsisparticularlysuitedforaugmentingorautomatingtasksthatinvolveat
leastsomepredictionaspect,broadlydefined.Thesecoverabroadrangeoftasks,
occupationsandindustries,fromdrivingacar(predictingtherightwaytoturnthesteering
wheel)anddiagnosingadisease(predictingitscause)torecommendingaproduct
(predictingwhatthecustomerwilllike)andwritingasong(predictingwhichnote
sequencewillbemostpopular).Thecorecapabilitiesofperceptionandcognition
addressedbycurrentsystemsarepervasive,ifnotindispensable,formanytasksdoneby
humans.
Machinelearningsystemsarealsodesignedtoimproveovertime.Indeed,whatsets
themapartfromearliertechnologiesisthattheyaredesignedtoimprovethemselvesover
time.Insteadofrequiringaninventorordevelopertoconsciouslycodify,orcode,eachstep
ofaprocesstobeautomated,amachinelearningalgorithmcandiscoveronitsowna
functionthatconnectsasetofinputsXtoasetofoutputsYaslongasitsgivenasufficiently
largesetoflabeledexamplesmappingsomeoftheinputstooutputs(Brynjolfssonand
Mitchell,2017).Theimprovementsreflectnotonlythediscoveryofnewalgorithmsand
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techniques,particularlyfordeepneuralnetworks,butalsotheirsynergieswithvastlymore
powerfulcomputerhardwareandtheavailabilityofmuchlargerdigitaldatasetsthatcan
beusedtotrainthesystems(BrynjolfssonandMcAfee,2017).Moreandmoredigitaldata
iscollectedasbyproductofdigitizingoperations,customerinteractions,communications
andotheraspectsofourlives,providingfodderformoreandbettermachinelearning
applications.14
Mostimportantly,machinelearningsystemsspuravarietyofcomplementary
innovations.Forinstance,machinelearninghastransformedtheabilitiesofmachinesto
performanumberofbasictypesofperceptionandthesemakepossibleabroadersetof
applications.Considermachinevision—theabilitytoseeandrecognizeobjects,tolabel
theminphotos,andtointerpretvideostreams.Aserrorratesinidentifyingpedestrians
improvefromoneper30framestoaboutoneper30millionframes,self-drivingcars
becomeincreasinglyfeasible(BrynjolfssonandMcAfee,2017).
Improvedvisionalsomakesavarietyoffactoryautomationtaskspractical,aswell
asimprovedmedicaldiagnoses.GillPratthasmadeananalogytothedevelopmentof
visioninanimals500millionyearsago,whichhelpedignitetheCambrianexplosionanda
burstofnewspeciesonearth.(Pratt,2015).Healsopointedoutthatmachineshaveanew
capabilitythatnobiologicalspecieshas:theabilitytoshareknowledgeandskillsalmost
instantaneouslywithothers.Specifically,theriseofcloudcomputinghasmadeit
significantlyeasiertoscaleupnewideasatmuchlowercostthanbefore.Thisisan
especiallyimportantdevelopmentforadvancingtheeconomicimpactofmachinelearning
becauseitenablescloudrobotics—thesharingofknowledgeamongrobots.Onceanew
skillislearnedbyamachineinonelocation,itcanbereplicatedtoothermachinesvia
digitalnetworks.Dataaswellasskillscanbeshared,increasingtheamountofdatathat
anygivenmachinelearnercanuse.
Thisinturnincreasestherateofimprovement.Forinstance,self-drivingcarsthat
encounteranunusualsituationcanuploadthatinformationwithasharedplatformwhere
enoughexamplescanbeaggregatedtoinferapattern.Onlyoneself-drivingvehicleneeds
toexperienceananomalyformanyvehiclestolearnfromit.Waymo,asubsidiaryof 14Forexample,throughenterpriseresourceplanningsystemsinfactories,internetcommerce,mobilephones,andthe“InternetofThings.”
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Google,hascarsdriving25,000“real”autonomousandabout19millionsimulatedmiles
eachweek.15AlloftheWaymocarslearnfromthejointexperienceoftheothers.Similarly,
arobotstrugglingwithataskcanbenefitfromsharingdataandlearningswithotherrobots
thatuseacompatibleknowledge-representationframework.16
WhenonethinksofAIasaGPT,theimplicationsforoutputandwelfaregainsare
muchlargerthaninourearlieranalysis.Forexample,self-drivingcarscouldsubstantially
transformmanynon-transportindustries.Retailcouldshiftmuchfurthertowardhome
deliveryondemand,creatingconsumerwelfaregainsandfurtherfreeingupvaluablehigh-
densitylandnowusedforparking.Trafficandsafetycouldbeoptimized,andinsurance
riskscouldfall.Withover30,000deathsduetoautomobilecrashesintheUSeachyear,and
nearlyamillionworldwide,thereisanopportunitytosavemanylives.17
WhyFutureTechnologicalProgressIsConsistentwithLowCurrentProductivity
Growth
Havingmadeacasefortechnologicaloptimism,wenowturntoexplainingwhyitis
notinconsistentwith—andinfactmayevenbenaturallyrelatedto—lowcurrent
productivitygrowth.
LikeotherGPTs,AIhasthepotentialtobeanimportantdriverofproductivity.
However,asJovanovicandRousseau(2005)pointout(withadditionalreferencetoDavid’s
(1991)historicalexample),“aGPTdoesnotdeliverproductivitygainsimmediatelyupon
arrival.”(p.1184).Thetechnologycanbepresentanddevelopedenoughtoallowsome
notionofitstransformativeeffectseventhoughitisnotaffectingcurrentproductivity
levelsinanynoticeableway.Thisispreciselythestatethatwearguetheeconomymaybe
innow.
WediscussedabovethataGPTcanatonemomentbothbepresentandyetnot
affectcurrentproductivitygrowthifthereisaneedtobuildasufficientlylargestockofthe 15 http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2017/8/20/winner-takes-all 16 Rethink Robotics is developing exactly such a platform. 17 These latter two consequences of autonomous vehicles, while certainly reflecting welfare improvements, would need to be capitalized in prices of goods or services to be measured in standard GDP and productivity measures. We will discuss AI-related measurement issues in greater depth below. Of course it is worth remembering autonomous vehicles also hold the potential to create new economic costs if, say, the congestion from lower marginal costs of operating a vehicle is not counteracted by sufficiently large improvements in traffic management technology or certain infrastructure investments.
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newcapitalorifcomplementarytypesofcapital,bothtangibleandintangible,needtobe
identified,produced,andputinplacetofullyharnesstheGPT’sproductivitybenefits.
Thetimenecessarytobuildasufficientcapitalstockcanbeextensive.Forexample,
itwasn’tuntilthelate1980s,morethan25yearsaftertheinventionoftheintegrated
circuit,thatthecomputercapitalstockreacheditslong-runplateauatabout5percent(at
historicalcost)oftotalnonresidentialequipmentcapital.Itwasonlyhalfthatlevel10years
prior.Thus,whenSolowpointedouthisnoweponymousparadox,thecomputerswere
finallyjustthengettingtothepointwheretheyreallycouldbeseeneverywhere.
David(1991)pointsoutasimilarphenomenoninthediffusionofelectrification.At
leasthalfofU.S.manufacturingestablishmentsremainedunelectrifieduntil1919,about30
yearsaftertheshifttopolyphasealternatingcurrentbegan.Initiallyadoptionwasdriven
bysimplecostsavings.Thebiggestbenefitscamelater,whenmanagersbeganto
fundamentallyre-organizeworkbyreplacingthecentralizedpowersourceandgiving
everyindividualmachineitsownelectricmotor.Thiscreatedmuchmoreflexibilityinthe
locationofequipmentandmadepossibleeffectiveassemblylinesmaterialsflow.
Thisapproachtoorganizingfactoriesisobviousinretrospect,yetittookasmuchas
30yearsforittobecomewidelyadopted.Why?AsnotedbyHenderson(1993;2006),itis
exactlybecauseincumbentsaredesignedaroundthecurrentwaysofdoingthingsandso
proficientatthemthattheyareblindtoorunabletoabsorbthenewapproachesandget
trappedinthestatusquo—theysufferthe“curseofknowledge.”18
Similarly,BrynjolfssonandSmith(1999)documentthedifficultiesincumbent
retailershadadaptingtheirbusinessprocessestotakefulladvantageoftheinternetand
electroniccommercerelativetoborn-digitalcompanieslikeAmazon.Thepotentialof
ecommercetorevolutionizeretailingwaswidelyrecognized,andevenhypedinthelate
1990s,butactualshareofretailcommercewastrivial,0.2%ofallretailsalesin1999.Only
in2017,aftertwodecadesofwidelypredictedyettime-consumingchangeintheindustry,
18AtkesonandKehoe(2007)notemanufacturers’reluctancetoabandontheirlargeknowledgestockatthebeginningofthetransitiontoelectricpowertoadoptwhatwas,initially,onlyamarginallysuperiortechnology.DavidandWright(2006)aremorespecific,focusingonthe“theneedfororganizationalandaboveallforconceptualchangesinthewaystasksandproductsaredefinedandstructured”(p.147,emphasisinoriginal).
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arecompanieslikeAmazonarehavingafirst-ordereffectonmoretraditionalretailers’
salesandstockmarketvaluations.
Anothersourceofthetimegapbetweenatechnology’semergenceanditsmeasured
productivityeffectsistheneedforcomplementarycapitaltobeinstalled(andoften,first
invented).Thisincludesbothtangibleandintangibleinvestments.Thetimelinenecessary
toacquireandinstallthesecomplementsistypicallymoreextensiveasthetime-to-build
considerationsjustdiscussed.
ConsiderchangingaspecificproductionprocesstobenefitlargeinvestmentsinIT.
BrynjolfssonandHitt(2003)examinedfirmleveldataandfoundthatwhilesmall
productivitybenefitswereassociatedwithITinvestmentswhenone-yeardifferenceswere
considered,thebenefitsgrewsubstantiallyaslongerdifferenceswereexamined,peaking
afteraboutsevenyears.Theyattributedthispatterntotheneedforcomplementary
changesinbusinessprocesses.Forinstance,whenimplementinglargeenterpriseplanning
systems,firmsalmostalwaysspendseveraltimesmoreonbusinessprocessredesignand
trainingthanonthedirectcostsofhardwareandsoftware.Thesecanbethoughtofas
investmentsinorganizationalandhumancapital,andtheyoftentakeyearstoimplement.
Atthefirmlevel,additionalcomplementaryinvestmentsarerequiredbeyondthose
attheprocessleveltofullyharnessnewtechnologies.Theorganizationalstructureofthe
companyoftenneedstoberebuilt.HiringandotherHRpracticesoftenneedconsiderable
adjustmenttomatchthefirm’shumancapitaltothenewstructureofproduction.Infact,
Bresnahan,Brynjolfsson,andHitt(2002)findevidenceofthree-waycomplementarities
betweenIT,humancapital,andorganizationalchangesintheinvestmentdecisionsand
productivitylevels.Furthermore,Brynjolfsson,Hitt,andYang(2002)showeachdollarof
ITcapitalstockiscorrelatedwithabout$10ofmarketvalue.Theyinterpretthisas
evidenceofsubstantialIT-relatedintangibleassetsandshowthatfirmsthatcombineIT
investmentswithaspecificsetoforganizationalpracticesarenotjustmoreproductive,
theyalsohavedisproportionatelyhighermarketvaluesthanfirmsthatinvestinonlyone
ortheother.Thispatterninthedataisconsistentwithalongstreamofresearchonthe
importanceoforganizationalandevenculturalchangewhenmakingITinvestmentsand
technologyinvestmentsmoregenerally(e.g.Araletal2012;BrynjolfssonandHitt,2000;
Orlikowski,1996;Henderson,2006).
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Butsuchchangestakerealtimeandresources,contributingtoorganizational
inertia.Firmsaremorecomplexsystemsthanindividualproductionlines,andthisgreater
complexityrequiresamoreextensivewebofcomplementaryassetstoallowtheGPTto
fullytransformthesystem.Transformingfirmsoftenmustreevaluateandreconfigurenot
onlytheirinternalprocesses,butoftentheirsupplyanddistributionchainsaswell.
Thereisnoassurancethattheadjustmentswillbesuccessful.Indeed,thereis
evidencethatthemodaltransformationofGPT-levelmagnitudefails.Alon,Berger,Dent,
andPugsley(2017)findthatcohortsoffirmsoverfiveyearsoldcontributelittleto
aggregateproductivitygrowthonnet—thatis,amongestablishedfirms,thereisonefirm
becominglessproductiveforeachfirmthatincreasesitsproductivity.Itishardtoteachthe
proverbialolddognewtricks.Moreover,theolddogs(companies)oftenhaveinternal
incentivestonotlearnthem(Arrow,1962;Holmes,Levine,andSchmitz2012).Insome
ways,technologyadvancesinindustryonecompanydeathatatime.
Transformingindustriesandsectorsrequiresstillmoreadjustmentand
reconfiguration.Asnotedabove,retailoffersavividexample.Despitebeingoneofthe
biggestinnovationstocomeoutofthe1990sdot-comboom,thelargestchangeinretailin
thetwodecadesthatfollowedwasnote-commercebutinsteadtheexpansionof
warehousestoresandsupercenters(HortaçsuandSyverson,2015).Itisonlyveryrecently
thate-commercehasbecomeaforceforgeneralretailerstoreckonwith.Whydidittakeso
long?Manycomplementaryinvestmentswererequired.Anentiredistribution
infrastructurehadtobebuilt.Customershadtobe“retrained.”Noneofthiscouldhappen
quickly.EcommercemayhavebeenreadilyforeseeableoncetheInternetbegantoreach
mosthomes,buthastakenover20yearsforecommercesalestorisetoitscurrentshareof
9percentoftotalretailsales.
ViewingToday’sParadoxthroughPreviousGeneralPurposeTechnologies
Wehaveindicatedinthediscussionabovethatweseeparallelsbetweenthecurrent
paradoxandthosethathavehappenedinthepast.ItiscloselyrelatedtotheSolowparadox
eracirca1990,certainly,butitisalsotiedcloselytotheexperienceduringthediffusionof
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portablepower(wepreferthisto“electrification”soastoalsoreflecttheparallelgrowth
andtransformativeeffectsoftheinternalcombustionengine).
Comparingtheproductivitygrowthpatternsofthetwoerasisinstructive.
Figure5isanupdatedversionofananalysisfromSyverson(2013).ItoverlaysU.S.
laborproductivitysince1970withthatfrom1890to1940,theperiodafterportablepower
technologieshadbeeninventedandwerestartingtobeplacedintoproduction.(The
historicalseriesvaluesarefromKendrick1961.)Themodernseriestimelineisindexedto
avalueof100in1995andislabeledontheupperhorizontalaxis.Theportablepowerera
indexhasavalueof100in1915,anditsyearsareshownonthelowerhorizontalaxis.
Laborproductivityduringtheportablepowererasharedremarkablycommon
patternswithcurrentseries.Inbotheras,therewasaninitialperiodofroughlyaquarter
centuryofrelativelyslowproductivitygrowth.Thenbotherassawdecade-long
accelerationsinproductivitygrowth,spanning1915to1924intheportablepowereraand
1995-2004morerecently.
Thelate-1990saccelerationwasthe(atleastpartial)resolutionoftheSolow
Paradox.Weimaginethelate1910saccelerationcouldhavesimilarlyansweredsome
economist’squeryin1910astowhyoneseeselectricmotorsandinternalcombustion
engineseverywherebutintheproductivitystatistics.19
Figure5.LaborProductivityGrowthinthePortablePowerandITEras
19Wearen’tawareofanyonewhoactuallysaidthis,andofcoursetoday’ssystemofnationaleconomicstatisticsdidnotexistatthattime,butwefindthescenarioamusing,instructive,andinsomewaysplausible.
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Veryinterestingly,andquiterelevanttothecurrentsituation,theproductivity
growthslowdownwehaveexperiencedafter2004alsohasaparallelinthehistoricaldata,
aslowdownfrom1924to1932.Ascanbeseeninthefigure,andinstructivetothepointof
whetheranewwaveofAIandassociatedtechnologies(orifoneprefers,asecondwaveof
IT-basedtechnology)couldre-accelerateproductivitygrowth,laborproductivitygrowthat
theendoftheportablepowereraroseagain,averaging2.7percentperyearbetween1933
and1940.
Ofcoursethispastbreakoutgrowthisnoguaranteethatproductivitymustspeedup
againtoday.However,itdoesraisetworelevantpoints.First,itisanotherexampleofa
periodofsluggishproductivitygrowthfollowedbyanacceleration.Second,itdemonstrates
thatproductivitygrowthdrivenbyacoreGPTcanarriveinmultiplewaves.
ExpectedProductivityEffectsofanAI-DrivenAcceleration
TounderstandthelikelyproductivityeffectsofAI,itisusefultothinkofAIisatype
ofcapital,specificallyatypeofintangiblecapital.Itcanbeaccumulatedthrough
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940
PortablePower IT
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investment;itisadurablefactorofproduction;anditcandepreciate.TreatingAIasatype
ofcapitalclarifieshowitsdevelopmentandinstallationasaproductivefactorwillaffect
productivity.
Aswithanycapitaldeepening,increasingAIwillraiselaborproductivity.This
wouldbetrueregardlessofhowwellAIcapitalismeasured(whichwemightexpectit
won’tbeforseveralreasonsdiscussedbelow)thoughtheremaybelags.
AI’seffectsontotalfactorproductivity(TFP)aremorecomplexandtheimpactwill
dependonitsmeasurement.IfAI(anditsoutputelasticity)weretobemeasuredperfectly
andincludedintheboththeinputbundleinthedenominatorofTFPandtheoutputbundle
inthenumerator,thenmeasuredTFPwillaccuratelyreflecttrueTFP.Inthiscase,AIis
treatedjustlikeanyothermeasurablecapitalinput.Itseffectonoutputwillbeproperly
accountedforand“removed”bytheTFPinputmeasure,leadingtonochangeinTFP.This
isn’ttosaythattherewouldn’tbeproductivebenefitsfromdiffusionofAI;itisjustthatit
wouldbevaluedlikeanyothertypeofcapitalinput.
Therearereasonswhyeconomistsandnationalstatisticalagenciesmightface
measurementproblemswhendealingwithAI.Someareinstancesofmoregeneralcapital
measurementissues,butothersarelikelytobeidiosyncratictoAI.Wediscussthisnext.
MeasuringAICapital
RegardlessoftheeffectsofAIandAI-relatedtechnologiesonactualoutputand
productivity,itisclearfromtheproductivityoutlookabovethatthewaysAI’seffectswill
bemeasuredaredependentonhowwellcountries’statisticsprogramsmeasureAIcapital.
TheprimarydifficultyinAIcapitalmeasurementis,asmentionedabove,thatitwill
largelybeintangible.ThiswillpresentitselfasaproblemforbothAIcapitalitselfaswellas
itsoutputs.ThispotentialissueisexacerbatedbythelikelihoodthatAIwillprimarilybe
usedasaninputinmakingothercapital,includingnewtypesofsoftware,humanand
organizationalcapital,ratherthanfinalconsumptiongoods.Humancapitalperworkeris
risingthroughouttheworld,compoundingthemeasurementissue(JonesandRomer,
2010).Moreover,thisothercapitalwill,likeAIitself,bemostlyintangible.
EffectiveuseofAIrequiresdevelopingdatasets,buildingfirm-specifichuman
capital,andimplementingnewbusinessprocesses.Theseallrequiresubstantialcapital
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outlaysandmaintenance.Thetangiblecounterpartstotheseintangibleexpenditures,
includingpurchasesofcomputingresources,servers,andrealestate,areeasilymeasured
inthestandardneo-classicalgrowthaccountingmodel(Solow,1957).Ontheotherhand,
thevalueofcapitalgoodsproductionforcomplementaryintangibleinvestmentsisdifficult
toquantify.Bothtangibleandintangiblecapitalstocksgenerateacapitalserviceflowyield
thataccruesovertime.Realizingtheseyieldsrequiresmorethansimplyrentingcapital
stockaswell.Afterpurchasingcapitalassets,firmsincuradditionaladjustmentcosts(e.g.
businessprocessredesignsandinstallationcosts).Theseadjustmentcostsmakecapital
lessflexiblethanfrictionlessrentalmarketswouldimply.MuchofthemarketvalueofAI
capitalinspecificandITcapitalmoregenerallymaybederivedfromthecapitalizedshort-
termquasi-rentsearnedbyfirmsthathavealreadyreorganizedtoextractserviceflows
fromnewinvestment.
YetwhilethestockoftangibleAIassetsisbookedoncorporatebalancesheets,
expendituresontheintangiblecomplementsandadjustmentcoststoAIinvestmentlargely
arenot.WithoutincludingtheproductionofintangibleAIcapital,theusualgrowth
accountingdecompositionsofchangesinvalueaddedcanmisattributeAIintangiblecapital
deepeningtogrowthinTFP.AsdiscussedinHall(2000)andYangandBrynjolfsson(2001)
thisconstitutesanomissionofapotentiallyimportantcomponentofcapitalgoods
productioninthecalculationoffinaloutput.EstimatesofTFPwillthereforebeinaccurate,
thoughpossiblyineitherdirection.Nevertheless,inthecasethatclaimsontheassetsofthe
firmarepubliclytraded,thefinancialmarketwillproperlyvaluethefirmasthepresent
valueofitsrisk-adjusteddiscountedcashflows.
Wecancombineq-theoryofinvestmentwiththeneoclassicalgrowthaccounting
frameworktoimproveestimatesofTFP.Inparticular,weshowintheappendixthatinthe
casethattheshadowpriceofAIinvestmentisclosetothepurchasepriceofinvestment,
thereisnomissinggrowthinoutput.ButiftheintangibleAIcapitalstockisgrowingfaster
thantheaccumulationofordinarycapital,thenTFPgrowthwillbeunderestimated.The
intuitionforthisresultisthatinanygivenperiodt,theoutputof(unmeasured)AIcapital
stockinperiodt+1isafunctiontheinput(unmeasured)existingAIcapitalstockinperiod
t.WhenAIstockisgrowingrapidly,theunmeasuredoutputswillbegreaterthanthe
unmeasuredinputs.(Ofcourse,insteadystatethereisnolongeramismeasurement
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problemasfurtherinvestmentservespreciselytoreplenishdepreciatedcapital.Inthis
case,theunmeasuredinputsandoutputscancelout.)Furthermore,supposetherelevant
costsneededtocreateintangibleassets,intermsoflaborandotherresources,are
measured,buttheresultingincreasesinintangibleassetsarenotmeasuredas
contributionstooutput.Inthiscase,notonlywilltotalGDPbeundercountedbutsowill
productivity,whichusesGDPasitsnumerator.Thusperiodsofrapidintangiblecapital
accumulationmaybeassociatedwithlowermeasuredproductivitygrowth,eveniftrue
productivityisincreasing.
TheseproblemsmaybeparticularlystarkforAIcapital,asitsaccumulationwill
almostsurelyoutstripthepaceofordinarycapitalaccumulationintheshort-run.AIcapital
isanewcategoryofcapital—newineconomicstatistics,certainly,butwewouldargue
practicallysoaswell.WhiletheconceptofAIisdecadesold,verylittleactualAIcapitalwas
accumulatedinpriordecades.Thusthecurrentstockisclosetozero.
Thisalsomeansthatcapitalquantityindexesthatarecomputedfromwithin-type
capitalgrowthmighthaveproblemsbenchmarkingsizeandeffectofAIearlyon.National
statisticsagenciesdonotreallyfocusonmeasuringcapitaltypesthataren’talready
ubiquitous.Newcapitalcategorieswilltendtoeitherberolledintoexistingtypes,possibly
withlowerinferredmarginalproducts(leadingtoanunderstatementoftheproductive
effectofthenewcapital),ormissedaltogether.Thisproblemisakintothenewgoods
probleminpriceindexes.
Arelatedissueis—onceAIismeasuredseparately—howcloselyitsunitsof
measurementwillcaptureAI’smarginalproductrelativetoothercapitalstock.Thatis,ifa
dollarofAIstockhasamarginalproductthatis10percenthigherthanthemodalunitof
non-AIcapitalintheeconomy,willthequantityindexesofAIreflectthis?Thisrequires
measuredrelativepricesofAIandnon-AIcapitaltocapturedifferencesinmarginal
product.Measuringlevelsrightislessimportantthanhavingproportionaldifferences
(whetherintertemporallyorinthecrosssection)correct.Whatisneededintheendisthat
aunitofAIcapitaltwiceasproductiveasanothershouldbetwiceaslargeinthecapital
stock.
Itisworthnotingthattheseareallclassicproblemsincapitalmeasurementandnot
newtoAI.PerhapstheseproblemswillbesystematicallyworseforAI,butthisisnot
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29
obviousexante.Whatitdoesmeanisthateconomistsandnationalstatisticalagenciesat
leasthaveexperiencein,ifnotquiteafullsolutionfor,dealingwiththesesortsof
limitations.
SomemeasurementissuesarelikelytobespecificallyprevalentforAI.Oneisthe
likelihoodthatasubstantialpartofthevalueofAIoutputwillbefirm-specific.Imaginea
programthatfiguresoutindividualconsumers’priceelasticitiesandmatchespricingto
theseelasticities.Thishasdifferentvaluetodifferentcompaniesdependingontheir
customerbases,andknowledgemaynotbetransferrableacrossfirms.Thevaluealso
dependsoncompanies’abilitiestoimplementpricediscrimination.Suchlimitscouldcome
fromcharacteristicsofcompany’smarket,likeresaleopportunities,whicharenotalways
underfirms’control,orfromtheexistenceinthefirmofcomplementaryimplementation
assetsand/orabilities.Likewise,eachfirmwilllikelyhaveadifferentskillmixthatitseeks
initsemployees,uniqueneedsinitsproductionprocessandaparticularsetofsupply
constraints.AsnotedbyBrynjolfssonandMcAfee(2017),firm-specificdatasetsand
applicationsofthosedatacandifferentiatethemachinelearningcapabilitiesofonefirm
fromanother.
Conclusion
In2017,thereareplentyofbothoptimistsandpessimistsabouttechnologyand
growth.Theoptimiststendtobetechnologistsandventurecapitalists,andmanyare
clusteredintechnologyhubs.Thepessimiststendtobeeconomists,sociologists,
statisticiansandgovernmentofficials.Manyofthemareclusteredinmajorstateand
nationalcapitals.Thereismuchlessinteractionbetweenthetwogroupsthanwithinthem,
anditoftenseemsasthoughtheyaretalkingpasteachother.Inthispaper,wearguethatin
animportantasense,theyare.
Whenwetalkwiththeoptimists,weareconvincedthattherecentbreakthroughsin
AIandmachinelearningarerealandsignificant.Wealsowouldarguethattheyformthe
coreofanew,economically-importantGPT.Whenwespeakwiththepessimists,weare
convincedthatproductivitygrowthhassloweddownrecentlyandwhatgainstherehave
beenareunevenlydistributed,leavingmanypeoplewithstagnatingincomes,declining
metricsofhealthandwell-being,andgoodcauseforconcern.Peopleareuncertainabout
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30
thefuture,andmanyoftheindustrialtitansthatoncedominatedtheemploymentand
marketvalueleaderboardhavefallenonhardertimes.
Thesetwostoriesarenotcontradictory.Infact,anymanyways,theyareconsistent
andsymptomaticofaneconomyintransition.Ouranalysissuggeststhatwhiletherecent
pasthasbeendifficult,itisnotdestiny.Althoughitisalwaysdangeroustomake
predictions,andwearehumbleaboutourabilitytoforetellthefuture,ourreadingofthe
evidencedoesprovidesomecauseforoptimism.ThebreakthroughsofAItechnologies
alreadydemonstratedarenotyetaffectingmuchoftheeconomy,buttheyportendbigger
effectsastheydiffuse.Moreimportantly,theywillenablecomplementaryinnovationsthat
willmultiplytheirimpact.Entrepreneurs,managersandend-userswillfindpowerfulnew
applicationsformachinesthatcannowlearnhowtorecognizeobjects,understandhuman
language,speak,makeaccuratepredictions,solveproblems,andinteractwiththeworld
withincreasingdexterityandmobility.
Furtheradvancesinthecoretechnologiesofmachinelearningarelikelytoyield
largebenefits.However,ourperspectivesuggeststhatanunderratedareaofresearchis
understandingbetterthecomplementstothenewMLtechnologies,notonlyinareasof
humancapitalandskills,butalsonewprocessesandbusinessmodels.Theintangible
assetsassociatedwiththelastwaveofcomputerizationwereabouttentimesaslargeas
thedirectinvestmentsincomputerhardwareitself.WethinkitisplausiblethatML-
associatedintangiblescanbeofacomparableorgreatermagnitude.Giventhebigchanges
incoordinationandproductionpossibilitiesmadepossiblebyML,thewaysthatwe
organizedworkandeducationinthepastareunlikelytoremainoptimalinthefuture.
Relatedly,weneedtoupdateourmeasurementtoolkits.AsAIanditscomplements
morerapidlyaddtoour(intangible)capitalstock,thetraditionalmetricslikeGDPand
productivitycanbeincreasinglymisleading.Successfulcompaniesdon’tneedlarge
investmentsinfactoriesorevencomputerhardware,buttheydohaveintangibleassets
thatarecostlytoreplicate.Thelargemarketvaluesassociatedwithcompaniesdeveloping
and/orimplementingAIsuggestthatinvestorsbelievethereisrealvalueinthose
companies.What’smore,theeffectsonlivingstandardsmaybeevenlargerthanthe
benefitsthatinvestorshopetocapture,thoughit’salsopossible,evenlikely,thatmany
peoplewillnotshareinthosebenefits.Economistsarewellpositionedtocontributetoa
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researchagendaofdocumentingandunderstandingtheoften-intangiblechanges
associatedwithAIanditsbroadereconomicimplications.
RealizingthebenefitsofAIisfarfromautomatic.Itwillrequireeffortand
entrepreneurshiptodeveloptheneededcomplements,andadaptabilityattheindividual,
organizational,andsocietallevelstoundertaketheassociatedrestructuring.Theory
predictsthatthewinnerswillbethosewiththelowestadjustmentcostsandtheasmanyof
therightcomplementsinplaceaspossible.Thisispartlyamatterofgoodfortune,butwith
therightroadmap,itisalsosomethingforwhichthey,andallofus,canprepare.
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Appendix:DerivationoftheProductivityBiasfromUnmeasuredAICapital
OursetupadoptstheapproachofYangandBrynjolfsson(2001)asfollows.
Takeaconstantreturnstoscaleproductionfunction
𝑌 = 𝑝𝐹 𝐾,𝑁, 𝑡 (1)
whereYisthefinalgoodsoutputofthefirm,pisthepriceoffinalgoodsoutput,Kisthe
vectorofcapitalgoods,Nisthevectorofvariableinputs(e.g.labor),andtrepresentsthe
leveloftotalfactorproductivityattimet.Withflexiblecapitalandinputprices(r,w),we
havethefollowing,withgrepresentingagrowthrate:
𝑔! =𝑌𝑌 =
𝑝 𝐹!𝐾 + 𝐹!𝑁 + 𝐹!𝑌 =
𝑟𝐾𝑌 𝑔! +
𝑤𝑁𝑌 𝑔! + 𝑔! (2)
Thevalueswithanupperdotrepresentthetotalderivativewithrespecttotime.
Inwords,thegrowthinoutputovertimecanbedecomposedintothegrowthin
capitalstockmultipliedbycapital’sshareofoutputplusthegrowthinflexibleinput
quantitymultipliedbytheexpenditureshareofflexibleinputsandafinaltotalfactor
productivitygrowthterm.ThisisthefamiliarSolowResidual.Asmentionedabove,it
representsakindof“measureofourignorance”inhowafirmconvertsinputstooutputs,
butgrowthinTFPindicatesimprovementinproductiveefficiency.
Toincorporateadjustmentcosts,wemodify(1)followingLucas(1967):
𝑌 = 𝑝𝐹 𝐾,𝑁, 𝐼, 𝑡 (3)
NowtheproductionfunctionincorporatesaninvestmenttermIwithmarketpricezsuch
thatthetotalcostofinvestmentinoneunitofcapitalgoodsis(z–pFI).Fisassumednon-
increasingandconvexinItorepresenttheideathatadjustmentcostsgrowincreasingly
costlyforlargerI.Thishelpsmodelwhyfirmscannot,forexample,instantaneously
replicatethecapitalstocksoftheircompetitorswithoutincurringlargercosts.
Wecanrelatefirminvestmentbehaviortomarketvalueusingthisproduction
function.20Fortheprice-takingfirm,marketvalueisequaltothesumofthecapitalized
adjustmentcosts.Thefirmmustsolve:
20SeeforexampleHayashi(1982),Wildasin(1984),andHayashiandInoue(1991).
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max!,!
𝜋 𝑡 𝑢 𝑡 𝑑𝑡!
!= 𝑉(0)
where 𝜋 𝑡 = 𝑝𝐹 𝐾, 𝐼,𝑁, 𝑡 − 𝑤!𝑁 − 𝑧′𝐼
and 𝑑𝐾𝑖𝑑𝑡
= 𝐼! − 𝛿!𝐾! ∀𝑖 = 1, 2,… , 𝐽. (4)
Thatis,Kiisthecapitalstockoftypei(indexescapitalvariety),Nisavectorofflexible
goods,u(t)denotesthediscountrateattimet,andδiisthedepreciationrateofcapitalof
typei.Fisassumednon-decreasingandconcaveinKandN,andwithhomogeneityof
degreeoneforFwegetthesolutiontothemaximizationoftheHamiltonianin(5)attime
0:
𝐻 𝐾,𝑁, 𝐼, 𝑡 = 𝑝𝐹 𝐾,𝑁, 𝐼, 𝑡 − 𝑤!𝑁 − 𝑧!𝐼 𝑢 𝑡 + 𝜆!(𝐼! − 𝛿!𝐾𝑖)!!!! (5)
withfirstorderconditions:𝜕𝐻𝜕𝜆𝑗
= 𝐾! = 𝐼! − 𝛿!𝐾! ∀𝑗 ∈ 1,2,… , 𝐽 ,∀𝑡 ∈ [0,∞]
𝜕𝐻𝜕𝐾𝑗
= −𝜆! = 𝑝𝐹!!𝑢 − 𝜆!𝛿! ∀𝑗,∀𝑡
𝜕𝐻𝜕𝐼𝑗
= 0 = 𝑝𝐹!! − 𝑧! 𝑢 + 𝜆! ∀𝑗,∀𝑡
𝜕𝐻𝜕𝑁𝑖
= 0 = 𝑝𝐹!! − 𝑤! 𝑢 ∀𝑖 ∈ 1,2,… , 𝐿 ,∀𝑡
𝜆 ∞ 𝐾 ∞ = 0
leadingtoanequationforthevalueofthefirm:
𝑉 0 = 𝜆! 0 𝐾!(0)!
!!!
(6)
Thevalueofthefirmatt=0isthesumoverallvarietiesofthecapitalstock
quantitiesmultipliedbythe“shadowprice”ofinvestmentoftherespectivevarieties.This
shadowprice,representativeofadjustmentcostsintheoriginalformulation,corresponds
directlytointangibleAIcapitalinourcontext.Assumethatmarketpricescorrectly
representthevalueofclaimsonpubliclytradedfirms.Equation(6)suggeststhata
regressionoffirmvalueondollarquantitiesofassetvarietieswillyieldacoefficientvector
thatrepresentsthevalueofoneunitofeachtypeofcapital.Inafrictionlessefficient
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market,thatvectorwouldbeequaltounityforallassets.Inthepresenceofadjustment
costs,thecoefficientisequaltounityplusthemarginaladjustmentcostforallasset
varieties.Thisofcourseassumesthatallassetstocksaremeasuredperfectly.
WecanextendthislogictointangibleAIinvestmentsthatarecorrelatedor
complementarytotangibleassetsandimperfectlymeasured.SupposeanAI-intensivefirm
mustinvestintwoassets:datacentersandfirm-specificAIspecialisttraining.Ifafirm
ownsameasurablequantityoftangiblecapitalindatacentersandhasinvestedinfirm-
specifictrainingofAIspecialists,theestimatedshadowpricecoefficientforthedatacenter
investmentwillexceedthe“true”datacentercoefficientbytheamountnecessaryto
representthetrainingaswell.Thespecialisttrainingisnotcapitalizedonthefirm’s
balancesheet,yetthefinancialmarketadequatelyvaluesthetrainingserviceflowifno
arbitrageconditionsaretohold.Themarketvaluepremiumoverbookvalueimpliesa
valuegreaterthanunityforTobin’sQ;thevalueofthefirmishigherthanthesimple
replacementcostofitsobservedassets.Technologyfirmshaveconsiderablyhighervalues
ofQ,suggestingthattheyhavehigherlevelsofadjustmentcosts,intangiblecorrelate
investmentstothebookedassets,orboth.
MARKET
Inthegrowthaccountingframework,thevalueoffinalgoodsinanygivenyearcan
bedividedintothevalueofconsumptiongoodsandthevalueofcapitalgoodsasfollows:
𝑝!𝐶 + 𝑧𝐼 = 𝑌 = 𝑝!𝐹 𝐾,𝑁, 𝐼 = 𝑝!𝐹!𝑁 + 𝑝!𝐹!𝐾 + 𝑝!𝐹!𝐼 = 𝑤𝑁 + 𝑟𝐾 + 𝑧 − 𝜆 𝐼 (7)
Thisisthegrowthaccountingidentity.Thevalueofconsumptiongoodsplusthevalueof
capitalinvestmentisequaltototaloutputY.This,inturn,isequaltothetotalincomeof
flexibleinputs,capitalrentalcosts,andinvestment(bothmeasuredandunmeasured).
If(λ–z)Ivalueofcapitalgoodsproductiongoesunmeasured,thenpartofthe
expenditureoncapitalgoodsismissingwhenthegrowthdecompositionisperformed.In
thecontextofAI,thismeansthatmuchofthetraining,theinvestmentinimplementing
data-drivendecisionprocesses,thereorganizationcosts,andtheincentivedesigns
necessarytogeneratecapitalserviceflowfromAIcapitalareleftout.
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Furthermore,iftheeconomyisaccumulatingAIcapitalfasterthanitaccumulates
measurablecapital,thenTFPwillbeunderestimated.Toseewhy,wecanupdatethe
growthdecompositionequationasfollows:
𝑔! =𝑌𝑌 =
𝑝 𝐹!𝐾 + 𝐹!𝑁 + 𝐹!𝐼 + 𝐹!𝑌 (8)
followingthefirstorderconditionsfortheHamiltonianabove,wehave
𝜆! 0 = (𝑧! − 𝑝𝐹!!)and
𝑔! =𝑝𝐹!𝐾𝑌
𝐾𝐾 +
𝑝𝐹!𝑁𝑌
𝑁𝑁 + 1−
𝜆𝑧
𝑧𝐼𝑌
𝐼𝐼 +
𝐹!𝐹 (9)
Thegrowthdecompositionnowclearlyshowsthemissingcomponentofinvestment
inthesecondtolastterm.Becausethegrowthofproductivityinthelasttermisaresidual,
itwillalsosubsumethemissinginvestment.
Thus,wehaveshownthatinthecasethattheshadowpriceofAIinvestmentisclose
tozero,thereisnomissinggrowthinoutput.ButwhenthereareextensiveunmeasuredAI
investmentsthatcorrelatethetangiblecapitalgoodsproduction,asislikelytobethecase,
thenestimatesofTFPgrowthwillbebiaseddownward.Theextentofthisbiaswilldepend
onthemagnitudeoftheunmeasuredcapital.