Arthur Berger

Arthur Berger

GDP by Final Expenditure, Shenzhen, China, 25-29 April 2011

Estimation of Changes in Inventory in the Canadian

SNA

23-04-22Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada2

Outline

1. Accounts that include changes in inventory in the Canadian SNA

2. Revision cycle

3. Quarterly estimation in nominal terms

4. Annual estimation in nominal terms

5. Deflation


Accounts that include changes in inventory in the Canadian SNA

Supply-Use accounts (annual) Expenditure based GDP in the Income and

Expenditure accounts (quarterly)


Revision cycle

Annual revisions Once a year, quarterly IEA are revised going back 3

years to align with the most recent supply-use tables

Sub-annual revisions Between annual revisions, quarterly IEA is revised

within the most recent reference year only


Revision cycle: GDP by final expenditure

Quarterly IEA annual supply-use

Jan-11

Feb-11 Q1/2010 - Q4/2010

Mar-11

Apr-11 2008 GDP C$

May-11 Q1/2008 - Q1/2011

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11 Q1/2011 - Q2/2011 2008 GDP K$

Sep-11

Oct-11 2008 detail

Nov-11 Q1/2011 - Q3/2011

Dec-11


Revision cycle: GDP by final expenditure

2010 2009 2008

Feb-2011 1st annual estimate

May-2011 2nd annual estimate 3rd annual estimate final annual estimate

May-2012 3rd annual estimate final annual estimate

May-2013 final annual estimate


Quarterly estimation in nominal terms

Businesses• Farms• Other businesses

Government (very small inventories)


Quarterly estimation: Farm

Grain held on farms (8 categories) Other inventories held on farms (8 categories) Grain in commercial channels (1 category)


Quarterly estimation: Farm

Data sources• Surveys : market prices and farm-held inventories

(tonnes or head count) • Canadian Wheat Board and the Canadian Grain

Commission: prices and level of inventories (tonnes) for grain in commercial channels


Quarterly estimation:Non-farm businesses

categories• 23 manufacturing industries x 4 types • 19 retail industries • 16 wholesale industries• 7 other


Quarterly estimation: Non-farm businesses

Data sources: inventory book values• manufacturing, retail, wholesale: monthly surveys• Mining, transportation, telecom: Quarterly survey of

financial statements• Utilities: survey of utilities• Gold, logging: production, exports, imports, (&

reserves for gold)• Construction, finance: projection of annual data


Quarterly estimation: Non-farm businesses

Data sources: prices• Manufacturing: Industrial Product Price Indices • Retail: Consumer Price Indices• Wholesale: IPPI and import price indices• Utilities: Uranium, coal, & natural gas prices;

machinery & equipment price index electrical utilities


Quarterly estimation: Non-farm businessesThe 6 steps for calculating investment in non-farm inventories

1. CBVe Reported current dollar book values of inventories at the end of the period.

2. DEFeDeflator of book values at the end of the period.

3. KBVe = CBVe ÷ DEFeConstant dollar book values of inventories at the end of the period.

4. KVPCt = KBVe - KBVe-1Constant dollar value of physical change for period t.

5. REVtRevaluer of the value of physical change for period t.

6. VPCt = KVPCt × REVtCurrent dollar value of physical change for period t.


Annual estimation in nominal terms

For most industries: annual figures are derived by adding up the sub annual estimates.

Logging & mining: annual industry surveys Supply-Use accounts:

• a model is used to allocate industry inventories to commodities

• change in inventory may be adjusted to help balance supply versus use

IEA is benchmarked to annual supply use accounts


Deflation

The 2 steps for revaluing book value of inventories before applying deflators

1. RBVe = KBVe × REVt

Value of inventories at the end of the period, in current dollars, estimated at average prices of the period.

2. RBVb = RBVe - VPCt

Value of inventories at the beginning of the period, in current dollars, estimated at average prices of the period.

Arthur Berger

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