ARMED CONFLICT LOCATION AND EVENT DATA (ACLED) A SUB-NATIONAL CONFLICT RESEARCH AGENDA Clionadh...
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Transcript of ARMED CONFLICT LOCATION AND EVENT DATA (ACLED) A SUB-NATIONAL CONFLICT RESEARCH AGENDA Clionadh...
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ARMED CONFLICT LOCATION AND EVENT DATA (ACLED)
A SUB-NATIONAL CONFLICT RESEARCH AGENDA
Clionadh Raleigh
Trinity College Dublin
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African conflict & hotspots
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Armed Conflict Location and Event Data
Individual conflict events disaggregated by location, date, actor and conflict event type
Covers civil wars, communal violence, rioting and protesting
Events for 50 countries from 1997-2010Real time information collected for highly unstable states Publicly available online
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Conflict Event Types Include:Violent (94.5%)
Battles (43%) Violence against civilians (36%) Riots/Protests (14.5%)
Non Violent Events (5.5%) Territorial transfers Headquarter establishment
(and other non-violent rebel activity)
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Coverage Map
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Sources
Includes information from the following local and regional news sources (and others): Integrated Regional Information Network (IRIN)
Relief Web Factiva Lexis-Nexis BBC monitoring Africa Research Bulletin African Contemporary Record Africa Confidential
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Why a focus on political violence?
Developing states are the sites of substantial, widespread political insecurity.
In states with civil wars, the proportion of violence accounted by formal rebel conflict is approximately 50% of the total violence.
Remaining violence includes actions by communal and political militias, rioters and protesting.
Lack of research into Civil versus Civic violence
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Risks of Political Violence Across African States
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Different Types of Violence
Rebel Forces: Formal type of oppostion violence involving battles with national militaries for the overthrow of a sitting government. Rebel actions are component parts of ‘civil wars’
Communal Militia: Local, often ethnic based, contests
Political Militia: Informal violence with groups self identifying, not professional soldiers Can be pro-government, rebel allies, political parties violent wings, urban quasi-criminal gangs)
Rioting/Protesting: spontaneous civilian oppositions actions against a political entity. Rioters use violence, protestors do not (although violence may be used on them)
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Different types of Political Violence
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Timeline
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Why Disaggregate and Geo-reference Conflict Data?
National scale data is too coarse for key research questions Analyses at this resolution misconstrues political, economic, social, and
physical geographies
What does a spatial perspective add to our discussion of conflict patterns? Trends appear throughout time and also across space The practices of governments and insurgent groups are spatial inscribed
Are ‘locations’ important? Events do not take place in a socio-economic vacuum Conflicts are ‘situated’ in particular contexts e.g. civil war events take place in regions of political contest
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New Patterns Derived From ACLEDCivil wars are generally fought on approximately 15% of a country
Accessible, populated areas are more likely to experience conflict than rural, under-populated areas
Different types of conflict (e.g. civil war, communal violence, rioting) affect different areas and populations
Poorest areas of a state are not more likely to rebel
Peace agreements create an impetus for civilian violence in frontlines zones
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Timelines of Rebel Activity
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Tracking Communal Violence
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Depending on Population Profile, the Perpetrator of ‘Violence Against Civilians’ Change
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Food Prices & Riots
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Cross Border Events
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Cross Border Continued
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Real Time Analysis
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Promises/Pitfalls
Potential Drawbacks Theoretical debates regarding ecological inferences (e.g. which scale is best for a research question)
Empirical debates (e.g. which observation unit is best for a research question)There are rarely independent variables at the same (fine) resolution
The reliability and coverage of media sources can be questionable in certain circumstances
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Sub-national Research Agenda (I)There exists a hierarchy of explanations for conflicts
National research explains the different trajectories of conflict among states
Micro-level research is an interrogation of multiple actors, motivations and political cleavages across scales
Sub-national conflict research is the study of political processes as exhibited over space within a country/region and throughout time
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The greater agenda of sub-national research is to understand how political institutions – the topography of governance – shape the potential for conflict...
(and)What kinds of conflict risk and observed conflict types are endogenous to groups and regions...
(and)What local and national triggers drive spatial and temporal trends of conflict
Sub-national Research Agenda (II)
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Reliability
Number of eventsExternal validation
ACLED random samples Afghanistan comparison to Wikileaks
Groundtruthing Extensive, ongoing visits and interviews with local experts
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Conclusions
Conflict types are endogenous to the position of ethno-regional groups in a state’s political heirarchy Civil Wars are largely interactions between politically relevant groups (either in or our of office, but more so out of office). Across states, they occur across poverty levels and polity level. Subnatioanlly, they occur in economically critical regions, and populated places within homelands of national (aggregate) groups.
Communal violence is largely a Sahel and East African phenomena and occurs in sparsely populated, poorer and politically irrelevant parts of a state (unless these groups are part of the dominatn power structure such is the case in Mali & Niger).
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Militia violence occurs across all areas, but is mainly clustered in PR zones, in particular zones of powerful ethnic communites. This violence occurs across all income levels, with a substantial rate in wealtier states and (subnationally) wealthier parts of the states.It reflects a growing informality to political violence (e.g. Zimbabwe, Kenya, Ivory Coast)
Rioting and protesting follow similar patterns to militia behhavior
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www.acleddata.com
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Other Types of Conflict Event or Disaggregated Data
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Patterns of Violence in West Africa