ARGENTINA: WHAT WENT WRONG Guillermo Perry Chief Economist LAC, World Bank IDB Annual Meetings...
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Transcript of ARGENTINA: WHAT WENT WRONG Guillermo Perry Chief Economist LAC, World Bank IDB Annual Meetings...
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ARGENTINA: WHAT WENT WRONGGuillermo PerryChief Economist LAC, World BankIDB Annual Meetings Fortaleza, Brazil, March 2002
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QUESTIONSWas this a first generation crisis plainly due to excess public expenditures and deficits that led to unsustainable accumulation of debt?If it was, how and when was it caused?Or was it a case of multiple equilibria related to:The fiscal contingencies associated with an eventual nominal depreciation of the currency?Changes in growth expectations due to the protracted deflationary adjustment to external shocks? Are Currency Boards doom to fail in a world of floating currencies and volatile capital flows?Can close trading partners (such as Brazil and Argentina) keep totally different exchange rate regimes?
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THE FISCAL PROBLEM IN PERSPECTIVE:USSUAL DEBT INDEXES DID NOT LOOK EXCESSIVEDebt ratios: Argentina vs. Emerging countriesIn percentageI: Public Debt Interest, T: Tax revenues, D: Public DebtSource: Goldman Sachs.
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BUT, THERE WAS A DETERIORATING TREND IN FISCAL BALANCES SINCE 1995IN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AND THE PROVINCES
Chart1
1990-0.11990
19911.6-0.378911019
19920.50.0843018807
0.93325730541.1545211455-0.0937714792
-0.3957427598-0.1110550206-0.2191640713
-0.9882887147-0.5343913214-1.3682030031
-2.0721311844-1.9343761473-0.6760983419
-1.5646785379-1.4602937903-0.4701581911
-1.394822845-1.3626099236-0.7890047253
-2.5939064455-1.6834002715-1.5919404471
-2.4341309645-2.3833519107-1.0075914173
-4.0707301667-3.8863170149-1.6142201539
Fiscal balance/GDP
Fiscal balance including privat. rev./GDP
Consolidated Provincial Balance/GDP
Fiscal Balance/GDP(%)
Unemployment
Evolution of Main Ocupational Indicators
28 major urban conglomerates
Unemployment
1990May8.6
October6.3
1991May6.9
October6
1992May6.9
October7
1993May9.9
October9.3
1994May10.7
October12.2
1995May18.4
October16.6
1996May17.1
October17.3
1997May16.1
October13.7
1998May13.2
October12.4
1999May14.5
Oct13.8
2000May15.4
Oct14.7
2001May16.4
Oct18.3
Unemployment
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Unemployment Rate28 major urban conglomerates
Poverty
Poverty
41.411.3
30.45.9
24.14.4
21.84.3
21.63.7
27.26.1
307.3
29.46.8
29.47.1
Poverty Headcount
Extreme Poverty
Argentina: Rates of Poverty(percentage)
GDPgrowth
gdp86 larga
1990-1.8304035651-0.0183040357
199110.57856008250.1057856008
19929.60621896740.0960621897
19935.72258002580.0572258003
19945.8362006970.085
1995-2.8452096112-0.046
19965.52668982820.043
19978.11104675760.086
19983.85017886910.042
1999-3.4024289334
2000-0.5218974583
2001-3.6
Poverty Headcount
ExtremePoverty
GDPgrowth
Argentina: GDP growth rate (%)GDP at constant prices*
Industrial Production
* 1990 to 1993 corresponds to growth rates computed on GDP at constant 1986 prices, and 1994-2000 at constant 1993 prices. 2001 is a World Bank estimate.
embi+
embi+
791
736
737
733
741
725
721
712
698
705
697
699
698
693
678
678
680
670
660
665
663
664
660
668
670
682
675
687
686
683
681
677
695
714
739
738
746
761
790
803
791
782
727
733
734
761
738
765
784
801
845
855
914
893
896
961
1045
938
898
885
920
960
950
951
941
919
908
876
838
857
857
892
896
895
945
1082
1295
1200
1210
1062
1015
1039
1066
1095
1069
1044
979
993
1008
994
1067
1088
1069
1016
992
964
954
925
937
917
927
930
971
993
1023
965
924
911
905
881
877
892
904
940
930
985
993
985
972
992
969
983
997
1003
1050
1059
1077
1123
1154
1137
1202
1314
1641
1623
1661
1480
1540
1617
1475
1373
1413
1439
1485
1615
1585
1599
1755
1588
1583
1607
1584
1500
1464
1433
1448
1503
1454
1387
1523
1566
1669
1452
1424
1463
1466
1423
1386
1424
1430
1380
1407
1473
1509
1510
1562
1634
1634
1611
1583
1637
1633
1608
1616
1646
1643
1615
1652
1712
1766
1864
1887
1919
1886
1811
1865
1829
1761
1691
1752
1714
1695
1708
1762
1769
1838
2066
2100
2162
2309
2585
2435
2436
2269
2365
2481
2614
2788
2617
2863
3032
3164
3026
2973
2742
2965
2991
3332
3372
3113
4040
3971
4138
4155
4179
4152
4035
4158
4107
4159
4146
4227
4716
4753
5501
5498
5307
4967
4372
Argentina: Sovereign Risk in 2001EMBI plus index
Reserves
Reserves
25.148
25.623
25.647
25.69
25.773
25.773
25.773
26.027
26.212
26.357
26.447
26.54
26.54
26.54
26.572
26.179
26.076
26.064
25.963
25.963
25.963
25.951
26.068
26.014
26.12
25.84
25.84
25.84
25.822
25.696
25.437
25.887
26.192
26.192
26.192
26.13
26.203
26.038
26.04
25.916
25.916
25.916
26.138
26.119
25.994
25.973
25.93
25.93
25.93
25.933
25.719
25.788
25.932
26.177
26.177
26.177
26.055
25.967
25.377
25.747
25.709
25.709
25.709
25.768
25.608
25.393
25.319
25.402
25.402
25.402
25.365
25.075
24.95
24.691
23.625
23.625
23.625
23.326
23.086
23.037
22.771
22.702
22.702
22.702
22.325
22.331
22.221
21.723
21.924
21.924
21.924
21.924
21.74
22.231
22.642
22.86
22.86
22.86
22.862
23.983
24.091
24.091
24.091
24.091
24.091
22.065
22.092
22.016
21.91
21.717
21.717
21.717
21.301
20.634
20.686
20.785
20.688
20.688
20.688
20.547
20.547
20.857
20.994
21.034
21.034
21.034
21.122
21.292
21.201
20.519
20.725
20.725
20.725
21.146
21.118
21.071
20.805
20.956
20.956
20.956
20.831
20.704
20.522
20.653
20.653
20.653
20.653
20.265
20.315
20.271
20.197
20.806
20.806
20.806
20.965
20.774
20.759
20.586
20.752
20.752
20.752
20.752
20.557
20.583
20.535
19.595
19.595
19.595
19.595
19.827
20.189
20.008
20.299
20.299
20.299
20.068
20.052
20.431
20.989
21.082
21.082
21.082
21.032
21.207
21.194
20.861
20.37
20.37
20.37
20.37
21.027
20.655
19.593
18.94
18.94
18.94
18.819
18.64
18.303
18.351
18.385
18.385
18.385
18.356
18.079
17.853
17.669
17.045
17.045
17.045
16.949
16.693
16.499
16.354
15.663
15.663
15.663
15.374
15.587
15.431
15.413
15.459
15.459
15.459
15.598
15.695
15.466
15.602
15.658
15.658
15.658
15.658
15.423
15.4
15.335
15.282
15.282
15.282
15.265
15.078
14.712
14.341
14.378
14.378
14.378
14.378
14.2
14.072
14.184
14.33
14.33
14.33
18.936
18.978
18.824
20.227
20.871
20.871
20.871
20.931
20.989
20.896
21.173
21.321
21.321
21.321
21.192
21.595
21.466
20.374
20.584
20.584
20.584
20.543
20.747
20.683
20.6
20.244
20.244
20.244
20.244
19.985
19.821
19.687
19.493
19.493
19.493
19.543
19.606
19.751
19.622
19.668
19.668
19.668
19.391
19.516
19.47
19.25
18.684
18.684
18.684
18.604
18.469
18.08
17.852
17.302
17.302
17.302
17.324
17.324
17.537
17.715
17.583
17.583
17.583
17.055
18.632
18.756
18.816
18.556
18.556
18.556
18.407
18.403
18.065
18.001
17.706
17.706
17.706
17.476
17.415
16.92
16.453
14.74
14.74
14.74
14.662
14.807
14.842
15.047
15.14
15.14
15.14
15.174
15.177
15.137
15.063
15.23
15.23
15.23
15.305
15.045
14.618
14.392
14.353
14.353
14.353
14.38
14.38
14.385
14.608
14.682
14.682
14.682
14.546
International Reserves at the Central Bank in Foreign Currency
International Reserves at the Central Bank in Foreign Currency in 2001Billion dollars
Deposits
Deposits
85985
85994
86171
86296
85904
85904
85904
86064
85853
86195
86470
86516
86516
86516
86470
86653
86646
86565
86558
86558
86558
86510
86513
86810
86868
87250
87250
87250
87407
87655
87411
87515
87388
87388
87388
87295
87183
87103
86824
87004
87004
87004
87239
87167
86937
87025
86680
86680
86680
86798
86654
86926
87022
87189
87189
87189
87599
87754
88090
87756
87433
87433
87433
87132
87206
86764
86516
86313
86313
86313
86477
86403
86052
85767
85581
85581
85581
85180
84527
84468
84151
83539
83539
83539
83901
83740
83657
82994
82433
82433
82433
82433
82553
82476
82421
82212
82212
82212
82149
82893
82590
82590
82590
82590
82590
82801
82743
83039
82953
82759
82759
82759
82578
82383
82226
82397
82568
82568
82568
82819
82819
82353
82067
81838
81838
81838
81738
81688
81712
81280
81509
81509
81509
81796
82338
82314
82225
82246
82246
82246
82286
82296
82302
83162
83162
83162
83162
83149
83323
83289
83346
83013
83013
83013
83091
83270
83213
82985
83187
83187
83187
82961
82900
83371
83282
82462
82462
82462
82462
82308
82928
82952
82998
82998
82998
82892
83148
83483
83471
83684
83684
83684
83615
83445
83562
82711
82171
82171
82171
82171
81873
81278
80350
79637
79637
79637
79359
78956
79241
79008
78491
78491
78491
78363
78137
78120
78333
77930
77930
77930
77839
77682
77401
76791
75961
75961
75961
75650
75371
74836
74719
75093
75093
75093
74961
74971
74518
74485
74496
74496
74496
74496
74476
74451
74360
74690
74690
74690
74842
74987
75368
75226
75020
75020
75020
75040
74719
74954
74815
74746
74746
74746
74727
74739
74948
74940
75334
75334
75334
75458
75597
75766
75994
75993
75993
75993
76323
76410
76854
76305
76666
76666
76666
76243
76392
76258
75830
75126
75126
75126
75126
75042
74698
74773
75000
75000
75000
74971
74894
74999
74862
74927
74927
74927
75090
75275
75508
75548
75472
75472
75472
75310
74879
73780
73522
72812
72812
72812
72229
72229
72140
72012
72441
72441
72441
72657
72405
72370
72411
72211
72211
72211
72125
71879
71948
71915
71815
71815
71815
71860
71709
71544
70974
68866
68866
68866
68776
68693
68771
68752
68594
68594
68594
68442
68435
68756
68664
68664
68664
68664
68690
68921
68745
68187
68749
68749
68749
68486
68486
68496
67373
67411
67411
67411
66976
Total Deposits
Total Deposits in 2001Million pesos
FiscalDeficit
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001e
Fiscal Deficit2207-1019-2550-5639-4582-4170-7347-6936-11037
Fiscal Deficit inclusive of privatization revenues2731-286-1379-5264-4277-4073-4768-6792-10537
GDP236505.0257440.0258031.9272149.8292858.9298948.4283260.0284960.0271130.3
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001e
Fiscal balance/GDP0.9-0.4-1.0-2.1-1.6-1.4-2.6-2.4-4.1
Fiscal balance including privat. rev./GDP-0.11.60.51.2-0.1-0.5-1.9-1.5-1.4-1.7-2.4-3.9
Consolidated Provincial Balance/GDP-0.380.08-0.09-0.22-1.37-0.68-0.47-0.79-1.59-1.01-1.61
FiscalDeficit
Fiscal balance/GDP
Fiscal balance including privat. rev./GDP
Consolidated Provincial Balance/GDP
Fiscal Balance/GDP(%)
-
SO PUBLIC DEBT INDEXES WERE ON THE RISE
Sheet1
Deuda Publica/ PIBDeuda Publica/ ExportacionesIntereses/ ImpuestosIntereses/PIBIntereses/ Exportaciones
Argentina50.1362.928.23.827.5
Brasil*49.4406.7237.259.3
Colombia**50.825.35
Mexico28.281.925.12.67.5
Peru45.3233.918.72.311.9
cuadro
2000 Public Debt Ratios: Argentina , Brazil, Mexico, and Peru
Total debt / GDPTotal Debt / Exports*Interest / Tax Rev.Interest / GDPInterest / Exports*Interest / Current Rev.
Argentina50.1362.928.23.827.521.1
Brazil49.4406.723.07.259.3
Mexico28.281.925.12.67.512.3
Peru45.3233.918.72.311.915.4
Sources: Argentina's Country IMF Report, 2001; Brazil's Central Bank, Mexico's Ministerio de Hacienda, Peru's Central Bank.
Note: Brazil's debt includes the central bank. Brazil's figures also Include the effect of depreciation on the interest payments of total debt
* Bank staff estimates. Exports of goods and services.
Series CodeSeries NameCountry CodeCountry Name2000
DT.DOD.DECT.CDTotal debt stocks (EDT) (DOD, US$)ARGArgentina146172002304
DT.DOD.DECT.CDTotal debt stocks (EDT) (DOD, US$)BRABrazil237952892928
DT.DOD.DECT.CDTotal debt stocks (EDT) (DOD, US$)MEXMexico150287794176
DT.DOD.DECT.CDTotal debt stocks (EDT) (DOD, US$)PERPeru28559900672
BX.GSR.INCL.CDExports of goods and services (XGS) (US$)ARGArgentina38342000640
BX.GSR.INCL.CDExports of goods and services (XGS) (US$)BRABrazil69202001920
BX.GSR.INCL.CDExports of goods and services (XGS) (US$)MEXMexico192830783488
BX.GSR.INCL.CDExports of goods and services (XGS) (US$)PERPeru10055000064
NY.GNP.MKTP.CDGross national income (GNI) (US$)ARGArgentina277735014400
NY.GNP.MKTP.CDGross national income (GNI) (US$)BRABrazil569769984000
NY.GNP.MKTP.CDGross national income (GNI) (US$)MEXMexico559765389312
NY.GNP.MKTP.CDGross national income (GNI) (US$)PERPeru51924672512
Chart1
35.81991
30.31992
30.11993
32.19.813025046915.4904536834
36.313.175475331815.3542391915
41.113.904191154815.2003200172
38.115.096231787717.4585114009
41.316.603875064919.9026949325
47.421.323531693927.783618813
50.823.73785957429.7003277088
53.425.570
Consolidated Public Sector Total Debt/GDP
Interest/Tax
Interest/Exports
porcentajes
Argentina
ARGENTINA
Consolidated Public Sector Total Debt
19911992199319941995199619971998199920002001
Consolidated Public Sector Total Debt/GDP35.830.330.132.136.341.138.141.347.450.853.4
Interest/Tax9.813025046913.175475331813.904191154815.096231787716.603875064921.323531693923.73785957425.57
Interest million LCU3012.87759730073841.12409831734327.546304355401.52009447036194.11669140457712.45462181849113.81309799569604.7363084354
Interest/Exports15.490453683415.354239191515.200320017217.458511400919.902694932527.78361881329.70032770880
Exports
Series CodeSeries Name1991199219931994199519961997199819992000
NE.EXP.GNFS.CNExports of goods and services (current LCU)13884000256149540003841645760000019449899008250167009282847009996830939179008311219998722775899955230685900800
Sheet3
Series CodeSeries NameCountry CodeCountry Name19992000
DT.DOD.DECT.CDTotal debt stocks (EDT) (DOD, US$)ARGArgentina145294098432146172002304
DT.DOD.DECT.CDTotal debt stocks (EDT) (DOD, US$)BRABrazil243650494464237952892928
DT.DOD.DECT.CDTotal debt stocks (EDT) (DOD, US$)MEXMexico167625801728150287794176
DT.DOD.DECT.CDTotal debt stocks (EDT) (DOD, US$)PERPeru2889620070428559900672
BX.GSR.INCL.CDExports of goods and services (XGS) (US$)ARGArgentina3386900070438342000640
BX.GSR.INCL.CDExports of goods and services (XGS) (US$)BRABrazil6032599859269202001920
BX.GSR.INCL.CDExports of goods and services (XGS) (US$)MEXMexico158509006848192830783488
BX.GSR.INCL.CDExports of goods and services (XGS) (US$)PERPeru901300019210055000064
NY.GNP.MKTP.CDGross national income (GNI) (US$)ARGArgentina276076593152277735014400
NY.GNP.MKTP.CDGross national income (GNI) (US$)BRABrazil510211981312569769984000
NY.GNP.MKTP.CDGross national income (GNI) (US$)MEXMexico466142068736559765389312
NY.GNP.MKTP.CDGross national income (GNI) (US$)PERPeru5001622323251924672512
Sheet5
Sheet6
MBD0017386D.xls
Sheet1
2000 Debt ratios: Argentina , Brazil, Mexico, and Peru
Total debt / GDPInterest / Tax Rev.Interest / GDPInterest / Current Rev.
Argentina44.928.23.821.1
Brazil*49.423.07.2
Mexico28.225.12.612.3
Peru45.318.72.315.4
Sources: Argentina's Secretaria de Hacienda; Brazil's Central Bank, Mexico's Ministerio de Hacienda.
*Brazil's debt includes the central bank. Brazil's figures also Include the effect of depreciation on the interest payments of total debt
Colombia169.71000000169700000
2120.920.421.821.025
Mexico Pub debt as % to GDP16.316.715.314.1
tax revenue0.1481089700161276
GDP 20001136374
interest brazil29763427294470086612336127736037302180816409317655825
8.0415426611
Nominal interest91382
Sheet2
2000
. Ingresos presupuestarios106,082,545191,027,392295,683,680392,901,613481,557,462572,899,874682,959,341781,854,676875,725,036989,527,0171,089,335,5421,187,704,05312.31
Gobierno Federal88,732,200148,705,081223,882,784300,131,486363,623,085426,376,080512,091,967581,458,887645,179,585731,279,691801,232,794868,267,688
Tributarios62,235,719103,894,938149,154,131203,889,492247,391,382292,051,720343,446,441391,874,946433,836,122487,830,295537,335,780581,703,41725.13
ISR29,133,78946,977,83466,977,12991,711,956109,577,845128,790,942150,314,420173,993,835190,909,432212,118,924232,311,023258,754,210
IVA19,686,01232,130,70044,570,90362,028,10676,566,51990,055,926108,812,222123,446,725137,320,528158,073,926175,950,992189,605,997
IEPS9,359,21516,427,80824,095,88331,284,13737,878,76545,774,60853,014,91859,185,01166,537,20874,217,50381,022,79581,544,104
Importaciones2,277,4884,606,1027,186,2189,549,89712,178,36814,964,86717,600,37720,506,08223,378,87426,435,13029,832,66832,861,386
Otros1,779,2153,752,4946,323,9989,315,39611,189,88512,465,37713,704,50414,743,29315,690,08016,984,81218,218,30218,937,720
No tributarios 1_/26,496,48144,810,14374,728,65396,241,994116,231,703134,324,360168,645,526189,583,941211,343,463243,449,396263,897,014286,564,271
Organismos y empresas 2_/ 3_/17,350,34542,322,31171,800,89692,770,127117,934,377146,523,794170,867,375200,395,790230,545,452258,247,327288,102,749319,436,366
B. Gasto neto pagado101,077,074188,954,603282,163,052367,070,664452,852,217548,346,320662,073,091757,392,653861,832,499960,656,2841,081,326,5211,248,157,222
Programable pagado61,999,518119,008,560173,093,824232,421,886293,450,138357,179,457436,951,210500,259,808570,767,268648,083,042720,076,790860,920,208
Corriente53,901,263101,561,388146,375,257197,075,769247,081,541299,517,728365,872,636415,155,343473,682,252538,220,207597,935,823714,571,716
Servicios personales 3_/34,894,65362,220,31688,707,664116,337,883144,180,448173,970,419213,580,156235,244,637264,286,659295,496,796327,931,819392,121,815
Otros gastos de operacin14,645,79529,000,82242,934,57757,232,86273,190,44388,732,375106,838,672122,904,383144,102,623167,664,102187,348,493226,030,139
Ayudas, subsidios y transferencias 4_/4,360,81510,340,25014,733,01623,505,02429,710,65036,814,93445,453,80857,006,32365,292,97075,059,30982,655,51196,419,762
Capital8,098,25517,447,17226,718,56735,346,11746,368,59757,661,72971,078,57485,104,46597,085,016109,862,835122,140,967146,348,492
Inversin fsica7,795,48716,811,50125,919,30733,937,23444,310,25255,078,62967,988,16981,420,19892,927,648105,473,616116,872,777139,356,170
Directo4,750,6049,428,28413,670,86417,426,02522,562,19627,706,45633,671,18040,625,95545,871,62152,149,39359,827,23677,141,159
Indirecto3,044,8837,383,21712,248,44316,511,20921,748,05627,372,17334,316,98940,794,24347,056,02753,324,22357,045,54162,215,011
Inversin financiera y otros302,768635,671799,2601,408,8832,058,3452,583,1003,090,4053,684,2674,157,3684,389,2195,268,1906,992,322
No programable39,077,55669,946,043109,069,228134,648,778159,402,079191,166,863225,121,881257,132,845291,065,231312,573,242361,249,731387,237,014
Costo financiero19,404,71230,517,57150,691,51564,577,84173,199,65884,999,629106,745,187126,644,093146,202,448155,501,764189,578,083201,017,062
Intereses, comisiones y gastos9,182,32920,136,24036,472,65146,526,09155,013,50966,646,68878,238,05890,718,984110,099,425119,260,836130,617,307140,499,487
Gobierno Federal7,981,68918,195,88331,980,57140,953,17748,499,34657,591,40465,671,04877,046,02991,661,65699,281,335108,787,402115,943,391
Sector paraestatal1,200,6401,940,3574,492,0805,572,9146,514,1639,055,28412,567,01013,672,95518,437,76919,979,50121,829,90524,556,096
Apoyo a ahorradores y deudores10,222,38310,381,33114,218,86418,051,75018,186,14918,352,94128,507,12935,925,10936,103,02336,240,92858,960,77660,517,575
IPAB10,000,00010,000,00013,650,00017,300,00017,300,00017,300,00027,300,00034,600,00034,600,00034,600,00034,600,00034,600,000
Otros222,383381,331568,864751,750886,1491,052,9411,207,1291,325,1091,503,0231,640,92824,360,77625,917,575
Participaciones14,266,55732,326,99445,551,02360,398,13776,224,45393,257,755106,811,215121,316,200135,771,169148,169,036163,490,800178,136,175
Adefas y otros5,406,2877,101,47812,826,6909,672,8009,977,96812,909,47911,565,4799,172,5529,091,6148,902,4428,180,8488,083,777
C. Balance presupuestario (A - B)5,005,4722,072,78913,520,62825,830,94828,705,24424,553,55320,886,25024,462,02313,892,53728,870,7338,009,021-60,453,169
D. Balance no presupuestario118,667-399,585-293,5991,348,610-1,617,104-2,819,692-1,019,313-2,444,3564,744,7842,208,170-2,801,257-143,455
E. Balance pblico (C + D) = (F + G)5,124,1391,673,20413,227,02927,179,55827,088,14021,733,86119,866,93722,017,66718,637,32131,078,9035,207,764-60,596,624
F. Recursos externos13,549,11419,908,26910,139,0212,118,238514,213-16,295,927-39,112,158-33,645,385-28,832,361-27,175,518-46,957,097-57,748,716
G. Recursos internos-18,673,253-21,581,473-23,366,050-29,297,796-27,602,353-5,437,93419,245,22111,627,71810,195,040-3,903,38541,749,333118,345,340
1_/ En 1991, 1992 y 1994 incluye Ingresos extraordinarios por la venta de Telmex y Bancos.
2_/ Ingresos y gastos netos del pago de derechos y enteros a la Tesorera de la Federacin.
3_/ No incluye transferencias estatutarias del Gobierno Federal al ISSSTE.
4_/ A partir de 2000, las Ayudas se resectorizaron a Otros gastos de operacin e Inversin fsica directa.
Fuente: Direccin de Estadstica Hacendaria, DGPH.
Sheet3
Sheet4
Sheet5
Sheet6
-
THE FISCAL PROBLEM : SOME OF IT WAS AN ILLUSION DUE TO THE CASH COSTS OF PENSION REFORM
Chart1
-0.3516627465
0.4495417159
0.7452567543
1.8970805041
1.7064873909
1.8366382605
2.3104566049
2.3669976936
2001
Social Security Benefits
Porcentajes
Costo de la Seguridad SocialTransferencias Netas
Data
National Non-Financial Public Sector - Cash Basis
19911992199319941995199619971998199920002001
1. Current Revenue50,05950,27149,03846,91854,64156,21755,67756,16952,917
Tax Revenue29,00731,61431,03533,17638,35240,36338,62640,67238,467
Contributions to Social Security13,34514,08413,70510,28112,20211,99010,89210,68410,257
Non tax revenue2,0412,1031,7101,3511,5062,1483,4722,0861727
Sales of Goods and Services252346322169149204197185179
State owned companies Operating income5,0161,4391,0919188522771,0731,039959
Property income3315791,0729591,5151,0541,155980895
Current Transfers012566366181262523433
Other current income669448200000
2. Current outlays44246442464747748455493705585957032600476045961424139318
State owned Cos. Consumption and Operating1232810260985098631027993501045695769030
wages762776427250721375546844735468996761
Goods and Servicies408424452482247326602477287823152269
Other61717311817765292243620
Yield2914315140874610574766618224965611027
Interest2914315040844608574566608224965611027
Interest on Domestic Debt (in local currency)362235193148248215224152184
Interest on External Debt (in foreign currency)2552291638914460549764458000950410843
Other yield013221000
Social Security Benefits125131524115628154441719917481174361743117780
Net Transferences-83211571923516349985491654567477523
Other Current Outlays01121111110
Current Transfers164411874218690194522263323540239302377223588
To the private sector325045684680444557005910641161556094
To the public sector131661413313984149031684917541174391755017427
Provinces and MCBA118091253512429133361517615833156411582315700
To the external sector2442261058489816767
Other Outlays50831890000120
3. Current Savings (1 - 2)58132794583-2452-1218-815-4370-4290-8507
4. Capital Resources66880712567517365092779401744
Privatizations5237331171375306962579145500
Others1457485376430413200257244
5. Capital Expenditure375038873218356437953767317729032774
Direct Real Investment16661215872758855888635402394
Capital Transfers199325152262276527912822248724672347
Provinces and MCBA190822362080255024992501220422182284
Financial Investments91157844114957553433
To the provinces and GCBA345028353421
Others57107563714455513331
6. Total Revenues (1 + 4)507275107850294476695537756726584555657153661
7. Total Expenses (2 + 5)479965136451673529335965360800632246336264198
8. Global Surplus (6 - 7)2731-286-1379-5264-4277-4073-4768-6792-10537
9. Surplus Before Privatizations2207-1019-2550-5639-4582-4170-7347-6936-11037
10. Primary Expenditure450824821447589483255390854139550005370653171
11. Total Primary Surplus (6 - 10)5,6452,8642,705-6571,4682,5873,4552,864490
12. Primary surplus excl. privatizations5,1212,1311,533-1,0311,1632,4918762,720-10
-2.4-4.1
Tax Collection
Total Tax Collection excl. Cap. System and R&T45,65642,20443,11748,52850,03747,64349,10247,105
Income5,8226,2396,7938,3349,4899,24010,4559,152
Gross VAT17,36617,44218,81420,47420,85718,77119,00817,182
Excises2,1462,0601,6911,5371,4821,4751,5281,367
External Trade2,8002,0122,2532,8332,8042,3032,0081,750
Fuels2,0691,7932,3383,9273,6923,5883,4783,111
Social Security13,43111,76710,41110,55110,2689,1428,9988,638
Capitalization System02,2292,8553,6964,1494,3524,3084,099
Remaining and Transitories9510063638257-9691
Others2,0238938188721,4453,1243,3253,005
Moratorium (dec. 1999)0300250
Financial Transactions00000002,650
Total Tax Collection + Cap. System and R&T45,75144,53346,03552,28654,26852,05153,31551,295
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000
GDP68921999360180898004992226638004224236505006080257439956992258031878144272149757952292858888192298948362240283260026880285044637696
GDP in Millions68921.99936180898.004992226638.004224236505.00608257439.956992258031.878144272149.757952292858.888192298948.36224283260.02688285044.637696
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000
5.295.926.065.675.875.856.166.12
0.000.000.00-0.350.450.751.901.711.842.312.37
GDP
Series CodeSeries NameCountry CodeCountry Name19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000
NY.GDP.MKTP.CNGDP (current LCU)ARGArgentina68921999360180898004992226638004224236505006080257439956992258031878144272149757952292858888192298948362240283260026880285044637696
Sheet3
Sheet4
Sheet5
Sheet6
-
THE FISCAL PROBLEM: WHEN DOES IT ARISE? ADJUSTING FOR THE ECONOMIC CYCLE
Chart10
202676.419171205251.346539202719.81249202719.81249
201938.245351206080.771847201976.915354201976.915354
201201.599395209642.271149201235.600426201235.600426
200470.372761207315.861906200500.014827200500.014827
199753.911535204050.364385199779.559843199779.559843
199065.995944200145.430741199087.896669199087.896669
198422.96252190297.100748198441.355749198441.355749
197841.639048188873.82013197856.928487197856.928487
197333.903962191397.618094197346.51613197346.51613
196906.247795183497.019315196916.405478196916.405478
196561.222391190288.728198196569.165274196569.165274
196292.95194193345.552322196298.977141196298.977141
196091.602366196980.618842196096.097431196096.097431
195945.903374197615.059828195948.936605195948.936605
195844.765544199218.324668195846.45795195846.45795
195778.165139195903.794749195778.666079195778.666079
195738.069194198050.18386195737.673024195737.673024
195717.090268202553.243491195715.66902195715.66902
195708.710249202278.700447195706.289622195706.289622
195710.84097202833.818737195707.44387195707.44387
195725.39882192966.252867195721.14856195721.14856
195759.242786185815.439382195753.874472195753.874472
195816.932859181168.697468195810.370576195810.370576
195897.058249189924.708758195889.174321195889.174321
195988.976337194536.656743195979.672111195979.672111
196078.591964199255.431155196067.522556196067.522556
196150.449363206427.795755196137.482385196137.482385
196191.457398203176.986613196176.300767196176.300767
196194.706524201237.512774196177.158318196177.158318
196157.833163208702.430079196137.611084196137.611084
196081.413293210952.500906196058.37783196058.37783
195974.138623203051.897733195948.030335195948.030335
195853.713729210422.407069195824.449204195824.449204
195742.515599204753.590406195709.954958195709.954958
195671.7914196693.989337195635.991844195635.991844
195678.592977196340.816661195639.656379195639.656379
195800.447932201960.059162195758.706331195758.706331
196075.63162186182.573544196031.33769196031.33769
196545.847864176879.625236196499.622293196499.622293
197246.701346186805.393654197199.476501197199.476501
198201.534967177880.551161198154.554174198154.554174
199427.774937178976.010381199382.012873199382.012873
200929.177759188171.193856200886.338904200886.338904
202696.945078192670.19583202659.264824202659.264824
204714.57405193608.470884204684.576223204684.576223
206960.292492201043.634483206939.815525206939.815525
209403.389736207258.094107209395.602584209395.602584
212010.008057213540.358913212018.872145212018.872145
214745.664488224628.125835214775.223009214775.223009
217578.321679224256.234443217631.204904217631.204904
220478.404366223842.629479220559.525626220559.525626
223421.78146221762.704613223537.033611223537.033611
226387.622867224036.90087226542.629237226542.629237
229355.698006238523.426278229554.103926229554.103926
232299.515283240207.707882232547.68302232547.68302
235200.405789242195.256159235505.197686235505.197686
238046.167173242707.824936238236.0975518238324.6820799
240830.804325252755.690033240686.1171935240974.40347525
243545.13391250799.989053243161.3328332243604.1420171
246190.376463254258.384049245662.0035865246214.36086025
248773.95431248998.954896248188.3912339248807.63481695
251310.259543242695.567611250740.7602477251388.88118985
253806.930532239613.163735253319.3778203253962.88491715
256269.595486241576.33381255924.5138919256531.51311045
258696.637654248300.414597258556.4411786259091.9488868
261079.064291254310.604701261215.4352012261636.5135856
263394.051004259387.262357263901.7743141264153.99026055
265618.568981264075.586282266615.7397341266630.74246405
267728.822506269506.80796269357.6155701269051.56677505
269701.891758274138.36131272127.6888527271400.45805735
271507.768901281207.954447274926.2495645273661.65055575
273123.988664284544.654153277753.5906701275820.46285805
274535.950925286042.310767280610.0081471277864.96846805
275738.049942292152.662901283495.8010168279786.5728219
276722.908752290766.610063286411.2713756281580.0961388
277499.069114283298.368856289356.724427283245.383728
278085.442842279602.715548292332.4685127284786.66299585
278506.422331276752.82833295338.8151458286210.0892854
278778.237203276691.296905298376.0790429287522.55762295
278922.058061280497.926685301444.5781569288730.86198645
278958.864739279621.885898304544.6337108289841.8049434
278912.539532274677.996571307676.5702311290863.59095855
278797.962945275771.487088310840.7155814291805.8270747
278633.992023274833.502431314037.4009974292678.3180772
278438.215082274323.048326317266.9611211293491.80812655
278227.881692273545.762244320529.7340358294258.1413129
278008.217542262638.817187323826.061302294990.6029625
ARGGDPRHPF
ARGGDPRSA
Linear Trend
Projection
Argentina: GDP and Potential GDP
Chart1
205251.346539202719.81249
206080.771847201976.915354
209642.271149201235.600426
207315.861906200500.014827
204050.364385199779.559843
200145.430741199087.896669
190297.100748198441.355749
188873.82013197856.928487
191397.618094197346.51613
183497.019315196916.405478
190288.728198196569.165274
193345.552322196298.977141
196980.618842196096.097431
197615.059828195948.936605
199218.324668195846.45795
195903.794749195778.666079
198050.18386195737.673024
202553.243491195715.66902
202278.700447195706.289622
202833.818737195707.44387
192966.252867195721.14856
185815.439382195753.874472
181168.697468195810.370576
189924.708758195889.174321
194536.656743195979.672111
199255.431155196067.522556
206427.795755196137.482385
203176.986613196176.300767
201237.512774196177.158318
208702.430079196137.611084
210952.500906196058.37783
203051.897733195948.030335
210422.407069195824.449204
204753.590406195709.954958
196693.989337195635.991844
196340.816661195639.656379
201960.059162195758.706331
186182.573544196031.33769
176879.625236196499.622293
186805.393654197199.476501
177880.551161198154.554174
178976.010381199382.012873
188171.193856200886.338904
192670.19583202659.264824
193608.470884204684.576223
201043.634483206939.815525
207258.094107209395.602584
213540.358913212018.872145
224628.125835214775.223009
224256.234443217631.204904
223842.629479220559.525626
221762.704613223537.033611
224036.90087226542.629237
238523.426278229554.103926
240207.707882232547.68302
242195.256159235505.197686
242707.824936238413.266608
252755.690033241262.689757
250799.989053244046.951201
254258.384049246766.718134
248998.954896249426.8784
242695.567611252037.002132
239613.163735254606.392014
241576.33381257138.512329
248300.414597259627.456595
254310.604701262057.59197
259387.262357264406.206207
264075.586282266645.745194
269506.80796268745.51798
274138.36131270673.227262
281207.954447272397.051547
284544.654153273887.335046
286042.310767275119.928789
292152.662901276077.344627
290766.610063276748.920902
283298.368856277134.043029
279602.715548277240.857479
276752.82833277081.363425
276691.296905276669.036203
280497.926685276017.145816
279621.885898275138.976176
274677.996571274050.611686
275771.487088272770.938568
274833.502431271319.235157
274323.048326269716.655132
273545.762244267986.54859
262638.817187266155.144623
257102.937951264252.146831
247047.519105262305.06111
251386.813548260336.9251
250252.605692258361.240478
246723.251157256385.915101
259532.516722254413.788929
ARGGDPRSA
ARGGDPRSAHPF
Argentina: GDP and Potential GDP
arg gdpsa and gdp hpf
ARGGDPRARGGDPRHPFARGGDPRSAARGGDPRSAHPFLinear TrendLinear TrendProjection
1980 Q1205121202676.419171205251.346539202719.81249202719.81249202719.81249
1980 Q2205720201938.245351206080.771847201976.915354201976.915354201976.915354
1980 Q3209929201201.599395209642.271149201235.600426201235.600426201235.600426
1980 Q4207565200470.372761207315.861906200500.014827200500.014827200500.014827
1981 Q1203844199753.911535204050.364385199779.559843199779.559843199779.559843
1981 Q2199852199065.995944200145.430741199087.896669199087.896669199087.896669
1981 Q3190504198422.96252190297.100748198441.355749198441.355749198441.355749
1981 Q4189221197841.639048188873.82013197856.928487197856.928487197856.928487
1982 Q1191032197333.903962191397.618094197346.51613197346.51613197346.51613
1982 Q2183422196906.247795183497.019315196916.405478196916.405478196916.405478
1982 Q3190228196561.222391190288.728198196569.165274196569.165274196569.165274
1982 Q4193995196292.95194193345.552322196298.977141196298.977141196298.977141
1983 Q1196381196091.602366196980.618842196096.097431196096.097431196096.097431
1983 Q2197651195945.903374197615.059828195948.936605195948.936605195948.936605
1983 Q3199030195844.765544199218.324668195846.45795195846.45795195846.45795
1983 Q4196811195778.165139195903.794749195778.666079195778.666079195778.666079
1984 Q1197129195738.069194198050.18386195737.673024195737.673024195737.673024
1984 Q2202805195717.090268202553.243491195715.66902195715.66902195715.66902
1984 Q3202116195708.710249202278.700447195706.289622195706.289622195706.289622
1984 Q4203619195710.84097202833.818737195707.44387195707.44387195707.44387
1985 Q1192047195725.39882192966.252867195721.14856195721.14856195721.14856
1985 Q2186206195759.242786185815.439382195753.874472195753.874472195753.874472
1985 Q3181046195816.932859181168.697468195810.370576195810.370576195810.370576
1985 Q4190373195897.058249189924.708758195889.174321195889.174321195889.174321
1986 Q1193812195988.976337194536.656743195979.672111195979.672111195979.672111
1986 Q2199862196078.591964199255.431155196067.522556196067.522556196067.522556
1986 Q3206041196150.449363206427.795755196137.482385196137.482385196137.482385
1986 Q4203465196191.457398203176.986613196176.300767196176.300767196176.300767
1987 Q1200898196194.706524201237.512774196177.158318196177.158318196177.158318
1987 Q2209143196157.833163208702.430079196137.611084196137.611084196137.611084
1987 Q3210502196081.413293210952.500906196058.37783196058.37783196058.37783
1987 Q4203450195974.138623203051.897733195948.030335195948.030335195948.030335
1988 Q1210046195853.713729210422.407069195824.449204195824.449204195824.449204
1988 Q2205030195742.515599204753.590406195709.954958195709.954958195709.954958
1988 Q3196433195671.7914196693.989337195635.991844195635.991844195635.991844
1988 Q4196875195678.592977196340.816661195639.656379195639.656379195639.656379
1989 Q1201286195800.447932201960.059162195758.706331195758.706331195758.706331
1989 Q2186317196075.63162186182.573544196031.33769196031.33769196031.33769
1989 Q3176927196545.847864176879.625236196499.622293196499.622293196499.622293
1989 Q4187780197246.701346186805.393654197199.476501197199.476501197199.476501
1990 Q1176330198201.534967177880.551161198154.554174198154.554174198154.554174
1990 Q2179340199427.774937178976.010381199382.012873199382.012873199382.012873
1990 Q3188602200929.177759188171.193856200886.338904200886.338904200886.338904
1990 Q4194266202696.945078192670.19583202659.264824202659.264824202659.264824
1991 Q1190413204714.57405193608.470884204684.576223204684.576223204684.576223
1991 Q2201925206960.292492201043.634483206939.815525206939.815525206939.815525
1991 Q3208403209403.389736207258.094107209395.602584209395.602584209395.602584
1991 Q4215923212010.008057213540.358913212018.872145212018.872145212018.872145
1992 Q1218685214745.664488224628.125835214775.223009214775.223009214775.223009
1992 Q2226289217578.321679224256.234443217631.204904217631.204904217631.204904
1992 Q3225760220478.404366223842.629479220559.525626220559.525626220559.525626
1992 Q4224381223421.78146221762.704613223537.033611223537.033611223537.033611
1993 Q1216370226387.622867224036.90087226542.629237226542.629237226542.629237
1993 Q2241872229355.698006238523.426278229554.103926229554.103926229554.103926
1993 Q3242646232299.515283240207.707882232547.68302232547.68302232547.68302
1993 Q4245132235200.405789242195.256159235505.197686235505.197686235505.197686
1994 Q1232945238046.167173242707.824936238413.2666081994:01:00238236.0975518238324.6820799
1994 Q2257477240830.804325252755.690033241262.6897571994:02:00240686.1171935240974.40347525
1994 Q3253468243545.13391250799.989053244046.9512011994:03:00243161.3328332243604.1420171
1994 Q4257342246190.376463254258.384049246766.7181341994:04:00245662.0035865246214.36086025
1995 Q1237968248773.95431248998.954896249426.87841995:01:00248188.3912339248807.63481695
1995 Q2248094251310.259543242695.567611252037.0021321995:02:00250740.7602477251388.88118985
1995 Q3242215253806.930532239613.163735254606.3920141995:03:00253319.3778203253962.88491715
1995 Q4244468256269.595486241576.33381257138.5123291995:04:00255924.5138919256531.51311045
1996 Q1236566258696.637654248300.414597259627.4565951996:01:00258556.4411786259091.9488868
1996 Q2260752261079.064291254310.604701262057.591971996:02:00261215.4352012261636.5135856
1996 Q3262167263394.051004259387.262357264406.2062071996:03:00263901.7743141264153.99026055
1996 Q4267020265618.568981264075.586282266645.7451941996:04:00266615.7397341266630.74246405
1997 Q1256388267728.822506269506.80796268745.517981997:01:00269357.6155701269051.56677505
1997 Q2281770269701.891758274138.36131270673.2272621997:02:00272127.6888527271400.45805735
1997 Q3284092271507.768901281207.954447272397.0515471997:03:00274926.2495645273661.65055575
1997 Q4287515273123.988664284544.654153273887.3350461997:04:00277753.5906701275820.46285805
1998 Q1271702274535.950925286042.310767275119.9287891998:01:00280610.0081471277864.96846805
1998 Q2301208275738.049942292152.662901276077.3446271998:02:00283495.8010168279786.5728219
1998 Q3293315276722.908752290766.610063276748.9209021998:03:00286411.2713756281580.0961388
1998 Q4286268277499.069114283298.368856277134.0430291998:04:00289356.724427283245.383728
1999 Q1265025278085.442842279602.715548277240.8574791999:01:00292332.4685127284786.66299585
1999 Q2286412278506.422331276752.82833277081.3634251999:02:00295338.8151458286210.0892854
1999 Q3278473278778.237203276691.296905276669.0362031999:03:00298376.0790429287522.55762295
1999 Q4283566278922.058061280497.926685276017.1458161999:04:00301444.5781569288730.86198645
2000 Q1264556278958.864739279621.885898275138.9761762000:01:00304544.6337108289841.8049434
2000 Q2285275278912.539532274677.996571274050.6116862000:02:00307676.5702311290863.59095855
2000 Q3276768278797.962945275771.487088272770.9385682000:03:00310840.7155814291805.8270747
2000 Q4278092278633.992023274833.502431271319.2351572000:04:00314037.4009974292678.3180772
2001 Q1259200278438.215082274323.048326269716.6551322001:01:00317266.9611211293491.80812655
2001 Q2284796278227.881692273545.762244267986.548592001:02:00320529.7340358294258.1413129
2001 Q3263079278008.217542262638.817187266155.1446232001:03:00323826.061302294990.6029625
2001 Q4260294257102.937951264252.146831326731.420528502295491.783679751
2002 Q1233280247047.519105262305.06111329880.384285708296092.722697854
2002 Q2262012251386.813548260336.9251333029.348042915296683.136571457
2002 Q3250451250252.605692258361.240478336178.311800121297269.776139061
2002 Q4249882246723.251157256385.915101339327.275557327297856.595329163
2003 Q1244944259532.516722254413.788929342476.239314534298445.014121767
arg gdpsa and gdp hpf
205251.346539202719.81249
206080.771847201976.915354
209642.271149201235.600426
207315.861906200500.014827
204050.364385199779.559843
200145.430741199087.896669
190297.100748198441.355749
188873.82013197856.928487
191397.618094197346.51613
183497.019315196916.405478
190288.728198196569.165274
193345.552322196298.977141
196980.618842196096.097431
197615.059828195948.936605
199218.324668195846.45795
195903.794749195778.666079
198050.18386195737.673024
202553.243491195715.66902
202278.700447195706.289622
202833.818737195707.44387
192966.252867195721.14856
185815.439382195753.874472
181168.697468195810.370576
189924.708758195889.174321
194536.656743195979.672111
199255.431155196067.522556
206427.795755196137.482385
203176.986613196176.300767
201237.512774196177.158318
208702.430079196137.611084
210952.500906196058.37783
203051.897733195948.030335
210422.407069195824.449204
204753.590406195709.954958
196693.989337195635.991844
196340.816661195639.656379
201960.059162195758.706331
186182.573544196031.33769
176879.625236196499.622293
186805.393654197199.476501
177880.551161198154.554174
178976.010381199382.012873
188171.193856200886.338904
192670.19583202659.264824
193608.470884204684.576223
201043.634483206939.815525
207258.094107209395.602584
213540.358913212018.872145
224628.125835214775.223009
224256.234443217631.204904
223842.629479220559.525626
221762.704613223537.033611
224036.90087226542.629237
238523.426278229554.103926
240207.707882232547.68302
242195.256159235505.197686
242707.824936238413.266608
252755.690033241262.689757
250799.989053244046.951201
254258.384049246766.718134
248998.954896249426.8784
242695.567611252037.002132
239613.163735254606.392014
241576.33381257138.512329
248300.414597259627.456595
254310.604701262057.59197
259387.262357264406.206207
264075.586282266645.745194
269506.80796268745.51798
274138.36131270673.227262
281207.954447272397.051547
284544.654153273887.335046
286042.310767275119.928789
292152.662901276077.344627
290766.610063276748.920902
283298.368856277134.043029
279602.715548277240.857479
276752.82833277081.363425
276691.296905276669.036203
280497.926685276017.145816
279621.885898275138.976176
274677.996571274050.611686
275771.487088272770.938568
274833.502431271319.235157
274323.048326269716.655132
273545.762244267986.54859
262638.817187266155.144623
257102.937951264252.146831
247047.519105262305.06111
251386.813548260336.9251
250252.605692258361.240478
246723.251157256385.915101
259532.516722254413.788929
ARGGDPRSA
ARGGDPRSAHPF
Argentina: GDP and Potential GDP
Sheet2
ARGGDPRHPF
ARGGDPRSA
Argentina: GDP and Potential GDP
Sheet3
Sheet4
Sheet5
Sheet6
-
THE FISCAL PROBLEM: WHEN DOES IT ARISE? STRUCTURAL DETERIORATION IN THE 96/98 BOOM
-
THE FISCAL PROBLEM: WHEN DOES IT ARISE? STRUCTURAL DETERIORATION IN THE 96/98 BOOMSTRUCTURAL PRIMMARY BALANCES
-
THE FISCAL PROBLEM: WHEN DOES IT ARISE? Fiscal Impulse
-
THE FISCAL PROBLEM: WHEN DOES IT ARISE?THE CRITICAL IMPORTANCE OF GROWTH PROSPECTS
-
THE FISCAL PROBLEM: WHEN DOES IT ARISE?CORRECTING FOR OVERVALUATION OF THE RER
-
CURRENCY BOARD AND SHOCKS:RER OVERVALUATION SINCE 97
-
CURRENCY BOARD AND SHOCKS:DEFLATIONARY ADJUSTMENTS UNDER FIXED PEGSFuente: Broda. AER paper and proceedings, 2001.
-
CURRENCY STRUCTURE OF REAL AND FINANCIAL ASSETS:TRADE STRUCTURESource: Un-Comtrade, 1999. Exports of goods.
-
CURRENCY STRUCTURE OF REAL AND FINANCIAL ASSETS:FDI BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN
-
CURRENCY STRUCTURE OF REAL AND FINANCIAL ASSETS:DEPOSIT DOLLARIZATION
-
A PROBLEM OF MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA?THE ELEMENTS OF THE PROBLEMPUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY UNTIL 2000 UNDER REASONABLE GROWTH AND INTEREST RATE PROJECTIONS, AND NO NOMINAL DEVALUATION.A LARGE FISCAL CONTINGECY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP NOMINAL DEVALUATION:FIRMS AND HOUSEHOLDS (AND THE FINANCIAL SECTOR) WOULD BE BANKRUPT WITH A NOMINAL DEVALUATION DUE TO HIGH OPEN EXPOSURES IN FOREIGN CURRENCY.THEY MIGHT HAVE ADJUSTED UNDER A DEFLATIONARY RER ADJUSTMENTWAS IT POSSIBLE TO HAVE DEFAULT WITHOUT DEVALUATION?DEFAULT WOULD BANKRUPT THE BANKS (DUE TO LARGE HOLDINGS OF PUBLIC DEBT) AND LED TO DEPOSIT RUNS
-
A PROBLEM OF MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA?WHAT TRIGGERED THE SHIFT?DOUBTS ABOUT NOMINAL DEVALUATION LED TO DOUBTS ON SOLVENCY DUE TO HIGH FISCAL CONTINGENCY ASSOCIATED WITH DEVALUATIONDOUBTS ABOUT FISCAL SOLVENCY DUE TO CHANGED GROWTH EXPECTATIONS UNDER A PROTRACTED DEFLATIONARY ADJUSTMENT LED TO DOUBTS ON CB SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO EFFECTS ON BANKS AND EVENTUAL MONETARY EMISSION TO FINANCE THE DEFICITS
-
A PROBLEM OF MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA?WHAT TRIGGERED THE SHIFT? CURRENCY RISK BECOMES VOLATILE SINCE MARCH 2001
-
A PROBLEM OF MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA?WHAT TRIGGERED THE SHIFT?BUT BECOMES IRREVERSIBLE SINCE JULY 2001
-
A PROBLEM OF MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA?WHAT TRIGGERED THE SHIFT? ..WHEN THE GOVERNMENT IS CUT FROM CAPITAL MARKETS AND THERE IS A SHARP DEPOSIT RUN
-
A PROBLEM OF MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA?WHAT TRIGGERED THE SHIFT? THE DEFLATIONARY ADJUSTMENT OR A CAPITAL FLOWS REVERSAL?
-
A PROBLEM OF MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA?WHAT TRIGGERED THE SHIFT?CAPITAL FLOWS FALL FOR ARGENTINA BUT NOT FOR OTHER COUNTRIES IN 2001
-
ARGENTINA AND BRAZIL:ARGENTINA NEEDED EXCHANGE RATE FLEXIBILITY TO ADJUST TO SHOCKS IN BRAZIL, NOT VICEVERSA...A CONTRAST WITH NAFTA
Regresion de cointegracion:
PIB Argentina = -22.14 + 5.67* PIB Brasil (3.77) (0.80)
Nota: Errores standard en parentesis. a: constante b: coeficiente de cointegracion
Las dos series convergen si:
a>0 y b
-
HOW MUCH CONTAGION? Cross-market Correlations with Argentina (ventana de 60 das correlacin de los cambios)
-
HOW MUCH CONTAGION? Cross-market Correlations with Argentina(ventana de 60 das correlacin de los cambios)
-
HOW MUCH CONTAGION? Tasa de Cambio Nominal y el spread Argentino(ventana de 60 das correlacin de los cambios)
-
SUMMARYTHE ARGENTINE CRISIS WAS DUE TO TWO FACTORS:A FRAGIL FISCAL SITUATION INHERITED FROM THE BOOM YEARS (96/98), EXACERBATED BY THE REQUIRED RER DEPRECIATION AFTER 98THE SHOCKS AFTER 98 REQUIRED:EITHER A PROTRACTED DEFLATIONARY ADJUSTMENT (Which neither the Argentine society had the stomach to support, nor Wall Street the patience to finance)OR A NOMINAL DEVALUATION FOLLOWED BY A BANK CRASH AND A DEFAULT (In which case everyone will end up worst)
-
LESSONSAVOID FISCAL LAXITUDE IN BOOMSUSE PRIMARY STRUCTURAL FISCAL BALANCE GOALSOBTAIN SURPLUSES IN BOOMSKEEP A FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME AND AVOID DOLLARIZATIONIF DOLLARIZED AND SUBJECT TO ASSYMETRIC SHOCKS, EITHERLEAVE THE PEG AND ATTEMPT DE-DOLLARIZATION IN GOOD TIMES, OR DOLLARIZE FULLY AND ACHIEVE STRONG FISCAL STRUCTURAL SURPLUSES, CONSERVATIVE PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AND LABOR MARKET FLEXIBILITY
-
End
Guillermo: This slide comes from the presentation by Sturzenegger in LAC meets the Markets III. There is no reference to the dates for these figures.GP: Ya pondo la serie de Intereses/ExportsTop-line: linear trendBottom-line: trend component of Hodrick-Prescott FilterMiddle: Midway (average of the two)
Guillermo: no hay (de acuerdo con Alejandro Guerson) una serie consistente para depositos en dolares a comienzos de los 90sGRAFICA CON RIESGO CAMBIARIO, RIESGO PAIS (SPREAD) Y NEWS (99/00 Y 01) luis- . GRAFICA CON RIESGO CAMBIARIO, RIESGO PAIS (SPREAD) Y NEWS (99/00 Y 01) luis- . Will be done. Hacer esto solo desde 1999.