JARI Roundtable at Shanghai

2008.1.19

Approach to Energy and E i t l P blEnvironmental Problems

in Asiain Asia

Tadayoshi HayashiJ A t bil R h I tit tJapan Automobile Research Institute

1

Motor Vehicles in Asia OutlookOutlook in 2030，China will stand first position

Japan, India, Thailand and Indonesia follow suit

2

Environmental ProblemsEnvironmental Problems

3

Vehicle polluting and Environmental Polices（Environmental issues caused by Motor vehicles）

(11)

（Environmental issues caused by Motor vehicles）(1) 1951 Inspection & Maintenance start(2) 1970 Detect of health hazard Photochemical smog(3) 1971 starting unleaded gasoline sale ( )

(10)(9)

(8)

(7)

(3) 1971 starting unleaded gasoline sale(4) 1973 Air Pollution Control Act(5) 1978 Emission control (Japanese's Muskie's low)(6) 1992 Control of NOx emission(7) 1997 L t l ti (Di l)

(6)

(7) 1997 Long term regulation (Diesel)(8) 2000 Emission regulation (Gasoline)(9) 2002 Control of NOx and PM(10) 2005 New long term regulation (Gasoline & Diesel) (6)(10) 2005 New long term regulation (Gasoline & Diesel)(11) 2009 Post New regulation (Gasoline & Diesel )

(5)

(4)(3)

(2)

(1)

4

History of Japan's Emission Regulations

(Gasoline Passenger Cars)100

( g )

COCO

100

5050%

60%

45%

Mode change (10→10‐15)

0

100

45%5%

75% M d h

1.6% (0.8%)

HCHC59%

75%

48%

8%

Mode change(10→10‐15)

50

2.6% (1 3%)0

100

8%

Mode change(10→10‐15)

* IW ≤ 1,000kg

IW > 1 000kg

2.6% (1.3%)

NOxNOx0

(10→10 15)

39%

70%

8%20%

27%

IW > 1,000kg

50

2.6% (1.3%)

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000

2005

* 100% = Emission volume without regulations * IW = Equivalent inertia mass5

Japan's Effort for Air Quality I tImprovement

* Effective combination of emission/fuel regulations.* Air quality improving or stable despite expanding vehicle fleet.* Effective combination of emission/fuel regulations.* Air quality improving or stable despite expanding vehicle fleet.q y p g p p gq y p g p p g

National Average Measurement National Average MeasurementHCCO

Residential area measurementResidential area measurement

'68 CO control '70 HC control

'73 CO HC NOx control

'78 Japanese's Muskie's low

'00 New Short -Term Reg '73 HC control

Source: “Air Pollution Report, 2005", Ministry of the Environment

73 CO,HC,NOx control g 73 HC control

'05 New Long -Term Reg

6

Japan's Effort for Air Quality I tImprovement

* Effective combination of emission/fuel regulations.* Air quality improving or stable despite expanding vehicle fleet.* Effective combination of emission/fuel regulations.* Air quality improving or stable despite expanding vehicle fleet.

National Average MeasurementNational Average Measurement

NO2 PM (particulate matter)

Residential area measurement

Residential area measurement

'86 diesel vhl reg

'05 New Long-Term Reg

'90 diesel NOx reg

'78 diesel vhl reg'74 diesel vhl reg ‘94 diesel PM reg

Stricter '97 diesel NOx PM reg

‘96 Gasoline sulfur 100ppm

‘05 Gasoline sulfur 50ppm

'76 Diesel sulfur500ppm

'03 Diesel sulfur 50 ppm

'05 Diesel sulfur10 ppm Source: "Ministry of the Environment

Stricter 97 diesel NOx-PM reg

‘07 Gasoline sulfur 10ppm

05 Gasoline sulfur 50ppm

7

Motorization in Asia 1945-2010

Emission Regulation for Passenger car

In Asia, we need effort for emission reduction from vehicles

J

ChinaEuro 2 : 2004Euro 3 : 2009

Euro 4

JapanEuro 3 : 2009Euro 4 : 2008 (Beijing)

Indonesia E 2 2005

Euro 3

Chi

Euro 2 : 2005

Japan 1978 (Euro 3 level)2000 (Euro 4 level)

Euro 3 Euro 2

E 2 China

Indonesia

( ) Euro 2

Euro 2

8

Air Pollution in Asian Large CitiesA di t WHO t (2002)

Latest Year（2002-2005）

According to WHO report (2002), 2/3 of death by air pollution is concentrated in Asia.

Latest Year（2002-2005）

City CO NO2 PM10 O3 SOx LeadJakarta 2004 E C E C D DKuala Lumpur 2004 C D D C B N.A.Manila 2002 C E E D C BBangkok 2005 A D D B C BHo Chi Minh City 2002 C E E N.A. E EBeijing 2005 E E D N.A. C N.A.Shanghai 2005 N A E D N A E N A

1990City CO NO2 PM10 O3 SOx Lead

Jakarta 1990 C B D C C C

Shanghai 2005 N.A. E D N.A. E N.A.

Jakarta 1990 C B D C C CKuala Lumpur 1990 C C B C B CManila 1990 D D D D B CBangkok 1990 B B E B B CHo Chi Minh City 1990 N A N A N A N A N A N A

A 50 % below from WHO standardB Within WHO standard

Ho Chi Minh City 1990 N.A. N.A N.A N.A. N.A N.ABeijing 1990 D D E C A B

C Within 200 % over from WHO standardD Within 300 % over WHO standardE 300 % over from WHO standard

Sources: official site of AQM,WB,ADB9

Time Schedule for Emission Regulation and Fuel QualityEmission Regulation and Fuel Quality

（ Gasoline Passenger Vehicle）

Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Indonesia Euro2

Target: Euro 4Target: Euro 2

ULG

ULG2000

5000 1000 500Malaysia Euro1 Euro2 Euro3 Euro4

3000 500ULG

2000

ULG

Philippines

Euro 1 Euro2 Euro31000 500

Thailand Euro1Euro2 Euro3 Euro4500 501996

ULG2000

ULG

500 50SingaporeEuro 1 Euro3

500 150Vietnam Euro 3Euro4 (Tentative)

Euro 2

Euro 2

E i i l l d i t f lf d ti

( )10000 5000 500

Target : Target year agreed by AMEICC2004

Emission level and requirement of sulfur reductionEuro2 : ＜ 500 ppmEuro3 : ＜150 ppmEuro4 : ＜ 50 ppm

: Unleaded GasolineULG

10

Policy Options for Emission Reduction from Vehicles

EmissionEmissionEmission Regulation

F l

Guarantee

Fuel Fuel Quality Regulation

Vehicle MaintenanceRegistration SystemRegistration SystemInspection System

Quality ManagementQuality ManagementFuel Quality MonitoringAir Quality Monitoring

11

Purpose for Inspection & Maintenance i J

P t

in Japan

Reduce fuel consumption …

PreventAir pollution

Effect for in-used Vehicles

SecureSafety

Reduction of Road Traffic Accidents

12

Effects of Maintenance & Inspection

（Clean Bus program：Indonesia）

Emission reduction (on road vs after service) as result from PUTE Activityy

49 % 53 % 61 %

5 % of Fuel saving potential13

Producer, importer, refinerOil quality guarantee law” in Japan (1996~)

HeavyDuty of quality verification(self analysis, request to appointed institute)

Analysis request

ypunishment

Voluntary check before distribution

METI

y q

inspectionAppointed analysis i i

distribution

Analysis request

institute

Service stations( abourt 48,000 places)

P hibiti f lli i f i il

Voluntary check

If SS request analysis every 10 days, it costs ¥100,000/year

Subsidy for quality test¥2.9 billion/ yearFrom special account for oil

Prohibition of selling inferior oilQuality analysis dutyQuality report duty

Heavypunishment

http://www.meti.go.jp/feedback/data/ikisf68j.htmlhttp://www.ylw.mmtr.or.jp/~ooshima/k030516.htm

14

Evaluation Method based on Survey f P li t I Ai Q litfor Policy to Improve Air Quality

Survey of Real Vehicle Usage Air Quality

Simulation

Model of Typical Driving Cycle

Collection of data Analysis

Problem Analysis

Objective Analysis

PolicySelection

Evaluation of Policy Effectiveness

Proposal for Better Air Quality Plan

15

Environmental ProblemsEnvironmental Problems

16

The Share of CO2 emissions in T t t i J （2005）Transport sector in Japan （2005）

Airs

Rail

Ships

Residential

Energy Industries7%

35% TrucksTransport

22%

Residential14%

53%Car

Commercial20%

Industry39% 53%39%

▼ Ab t 22% f CO2 i i t t ti▼ About 22% of CO2 emissions are transport section▼ About half is from passenger cars

17

Comparison of Energy EfficiencyInput primary energy 1km driving (10・15 Mode)

単位：MJ/kmVehicles Typeput p a y e e gy d g ( 0 5 ode)

FCHV current

０ 1 2 3

FCHV future

GasolineGasoline

Gasoline HV

DieselDiesel

Diesel HV

CNGCNG

BEV

ＰＨＥＶ ???FCHV current："hydrogen station" and "FCHV" data are calculated by using

JHFC demonstration top, while other data are calculated by

ＰＨＥＶ ???

published top. FCHV future：calculated by using FC Stock Sys future efficiency 60% and

published top. Electric power sources: Japan MixJapan Mix 18

Global Warming/Energyg gy• Gasoline passenger car

Improvement of efficiency– Improvement of efficiency• Diesel passenger car

– The environmental performance of diesel passenger cars is expected to improve.Electric Powered Vehicle is a KEY!• Biomass

– Carbon neutral fuel ?

Electric Powered Vehicle is a KEY!

– Food Plobrem• Hybrid system• Hybrid system

– Application to wide category of vehiclesPl i H b id/BEV– Plug in Hybrid/BEV

• Fuel Cell Vehicle 19

Necessity of a Long-term ScenarioChoice of future automotive technology and motor fuel should be discussed together with motor fuel should be discussed together with overall time frames, whole economy, and social requests for decades

National Energy Target Toward 2030

social requests for decades.

National Energy Target Toward 2030Improvement of national energy Reduction of oil-dependency inefficiency by 30% transportation sector down to

80%37%

Improvement/ GD

P

15937%

Improvement/ GD

P

159 p

30%Improvement

ergy

Con

sum

ptio

n In

dex

/

100

70

p

30%Improvement

ergy

Con

sum

ptio

n In

dex

/

100

70

FY1973(Result)

FY2003(Result)

FY2030(Target)Fi

nal E

ne

FY1973(Result)

FY2003(Result)

FY2030(Target)Fi

nal E

ne

FY1973 FY2000 FY2030FY1973 FY2000 FY2030

20It needs a long-term scenario.

The Next-Generation Vehicle and Fuel Initiative

Strategy 1 Performance improvement and d li i f

Strategy 2 Strategic technology

d l tBattery decline in cost of

batteries, which is the key for next-

Hydrogen

/F l C ll

development towards the

realization of the ltimate clean cargeneration vehicles /Fuel Cell ultimate clean car

Cl di l th tStrategy 3Clean diesel

Clean diesel that contributes

as a countermeasure against CO

Realization of technical innovation of cellulosic ethanol

Strategy 4

diesel against CO2 that does not compete with foods

Biofuel

Strategy 5

For realizing the world’s most friendly motorized society

Strategy 5The concept of the world’s most friendly motorized society

For realizing the world s most friendly motorized society

A Long Term ScenarioA Long Term Scenarion

Fuel Cell Vehicle

Em

issi

o

Wide Range Implementation of Hybrid System

of L

ow E y y

Electric Powered Vehicle

Innovations in Automobile Technologies

Deg

ree

Improvement of

Innovations in Automobile TechnologiesEx. Fuel Injection, After-treatment, Combustion

D Improvement of Internal Combustion Engine

Utilization of New FuelsEx. CNG, GTL, DME

Biomass

2010? 2020? 2030?Year

Biomass

22