Appendix W - Traffic Forecasting Report

Appendix W - Traffic Forecasting Report

October 2017

Warrington Borough Council

WL-MMD-07-XX-RP-U-1000-Appendix W

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Mott MacDonald

Mott MacDonald 9 Portland Street Manchester M1 3BE United Kingdom T +44 (0)161 914 8880

mottmac.com

Warrington Borough Council Warrington Borough Council Appendix W - Traffic

Forecasting Report

October 2017

Mott MacDonald Limited. Registered in England and Wales no. 1243967. Registered office: Mott MacDonald House, 8-10 Sydenham Road, Croydon CR0 2EE, United Kingdom

Warrington Borough Council

Mott MacDonald | Appendix W - Traffic Forecasting Report

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Issue and revision record

Revision Date Originator Checker Approver Description

S2.1 2/11/2017 George Wells / Carmen Lau

Mark Smith Tony Millward

Issued for WBC Exec Board

S2.2 15/12/2017 George Wells / Carmen Lau

Mark Smith Tony Millward

Issued for DfT submission

Document reference: WL-MMD-07-XX-RP-U-1000-Appendix W

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Contents

1 Introduction 1

1.1 Background 1

1.2 Option Selection 2

1.3 The Preferred Option 2

1.4 Purpose of Report 6

2 Summary of the Base Year Model 7

2.1 The Traffic Model 7

2.2 Time Periods 7

2.3 User Class Segmentation 7

2.4 Highway Assignment Technique and Generalised Costs 7

2.5 Validation Results 8

2.6 Application of the Variable Demand Model (VDM) 11

2.7 Model Software 11

2.8 Model Validation Report 11

3 Uncertainty Log and Forecast Years 12

3.1 Development Uncertainty Log 12

3.2 Future Forecasts Years 15

4 Reference Forecast Demand and Supply 16

4.1 Traffic Growth 16

4.2 Transport Supply 17

5 Equilibrium Demand Forecasts 19

5.1 Forecast Year Generalised Costs 19

5.2 VDM Convergence Statistics 19

5.3 Changes in Demand 19

5.4 Impacts of VDM in the Do Something 21

6 Assignment Results 23

6.1 Highway Assignment Model Convergence 23

6.2 Forecast Traffic Flows 24

6.3 Ship Canal Screenline 24

6.4 River Mersey Screenline 25

6.5 Warrington Town Cordon 25

6.6 Scheme Traffic Flows 25

6.7 Impact on Mersey Gateway 26



7 Sensitivity Tests 27

7.2 Supply Sensitivity Test - Centre Park Link 30

7.3 Impact on Traffic Flows 30

Mott MacDonald | Appendix W - Traffic Forecasting Report 1


1 Introduction

1.1 Background

Warrington Borough Council have received funding from the Department for Transport (DfT) to

develop an Outline Business Case (OBC) for the Western Link scheme. Mott MacDonald has

been commissioned on behalf of Warrington Borough Council to produce the Western Link OBC,

which includes both the Outline Business Case documentation, Options Appraisal Report (OAR)

and this Scheme Assessment Report (SAR) as key components.

Western Link consists of a new carriageway link between Sankey Way (A57) and Chester Road

(A56), approximately within the orange shaded area shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Warrington and surrounding road network

The rationale behind the development of this scheme is that it will address a range of transport

issues within Warrington, including providing additional resilience to town centre congestion whilst

also acting as a catalyst for economic growth and unlocking land immediately south-west of the

town centre for housing and employment.

These improvements support Warrington Borough Council’s growth ambitions to transform the

town centre and regenerate Warrington’s waterfront which looks to deliver a significant mixed-use

development that will bolster the growth and rejuvenation of the town centre.



1.2 Option Selection

Six scheme options were identified during the Stage 1 part of the study for more detailed

assessment. These options were:

● Red Route

● Purple Route

● Yellow Route

● Orange Route

● Pink Route

● Green Route

The location of these options is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Schemes Shortlisted at Stage 1

At the end of this process a preferred option was selected.

1.3 The Preferred Option

The preferred option for the Western Link is the Red Route. The Red Route connects the A57

Sankey Way at Cromwell Avenue to the A56 Chester Road at Lower Walton just south of the

crossing with the Manchester Ship Canal. The route is 3.17 kilometres long and is designed to 40

miles per hour single carriageway standard. There is an intermediate junction to serve future

development at Arpley Meadows.

The junction between the scheme and Sankey Way is a signalised junction, with the east to west

movement on Sankey Way grade separated. From Sankey Way, the route travels south through



Sankey Valley Park, crossing over the disused St Helens Canal. The route continues south over

Old Liverpool Road, Fiddlers Ferry Line railway line and Sankey Brook, keeping to the west of the

electrical grid site. It then proceeds south-east parallel to Forrest Way crossing over the River

Mersey on a new bridge. The route continues south-east through Arpley Meadows and crosses

underneath the West Coast Main Line and Walton Viaduct. It then proceeds south along the

eastern edge of Morley Common, crosses the Manchester Ship Canal, and then connects to

Chester Road (A56) with a new 3-arm signalised junction. The alignment of the route is shown in

Figure 3.

The preferred option also includes improvements to a number of off line junctions that are

impacted by the main scheme. These improvements relate to physical changes or adjustment to

traffic signal timings. In some instances, the change on traffic flows as a result of the scheme

provides opportunities to reallocate priorities at traffic signal junctions. The location of off link

junctions is shown in Figure 4.



Figure 3: Alignment of Preferred Option



Figure 4: Off Line Junction Improvements and Traffic Signal Optimisation



1.4 Purpose of Report

The purpose of this forecasting report is to present the process used to generate traffic forecasts

for the preferred option including sensitivity tests around the scheme, to detail the assumptions

on which these forecasts have been based, and to present the forecasts.

The structure of the report is as follows:

● Chapter 2 – Summary of the Base Year Model

● Chapter 3 – Uncertainty Log and Forecast Years

● Chapter 4 – Reference Forecast Demand and Supply

● Chapter 5 – Equilibrium Demand Forecasts

● Chapter 6 – Assignment Results

● Chapter 7 – Sensitivity Tests



2 Summary of the Base Year Model

2.1 The Traffic Model

The Warrington Multi Modal Transport Model (WMMTM) is the modelling tool that has been

applied for the Warrington Western Link Road scheme appraisal.

The WMMTM (2016) is comprised of a highway model, public transport model and a variable

demand model. A summary of the key elements of the model are outlined below.

For Stage 2a, six scheme options have been appraised. These options have been assessed

using the highway component of the WMMTM. At this stage of the modelling, impacts of the

scheme on trip generation and mode shift were not be considered.

At Stage 2b, a refinement of transport modelling and appraisal was undertaken for the preferred

scheme option and sensitivity tests. The preferred option was assessed using the full WMMTM.

This allows full variable demand impacts to be assessed including trip generation and mode

choice.

2.2 Time Periods

The assignment model represents the following time periods:

● Morning modelled period to be an average hour over the period 07:45 to 09:15;

● Evening modelled period to be an average hour representation of 16:30 to 18:00; and

● Inter peak period to be an average hour representation of 10:00 to 16:00.

2.3 User Class Segmentation

The modelling includes the following user classes:

● User class 1: Car - Commute

● User class 2: Car - Business

● User class 3: Car - Other

● User class 4: LGV

● User class 5: OGV

● User class 6: Car - Commute (Halton and Widnes residents)

● User class 7: Car – Business (Halton and Widnes residents)

● User class 8: Car – Other (Halton and Widnes residents)

As Mersey Gateway residents of Halton and Widnes are exempt from paying tolls to use the

Mersey Gateway bridge, user classes 6, 7 and 8 are the same as user classes 1, 2 and 3,

respectively, but only containing Halton and Widnes residents.

2.4 Highway Assignment Technique and Generalised Costs

The assignment procedure adopted for the highway model is based on an equilibrium assignment

with multiple demand segments for a typical hour in the morning peak, inter-peak and evening

peak.



The generalised cost parameters used are in the form of PPM which is Pence per Minute, PPK

which is Pence per Kilometre and toll in pence.

WebTAG Data book November 2016 dataset was used to produce the PPM and PPK values. The

generalised costs used in the base model are found in Table 1.

Table 1: Base Year Assignment Parameters by Time Period

VOT Time

Period

User Class

1

Car Commute

2

Car Business

3

Car Other

4

LGV

5

OGV

6

Car Commute (Halton)

7

Car Business

(Halton)

8

Car Other

(Halton)

PPM AM 20.20 30.17 13.95 21.39 50.16 20.20 30.17 13.95

PPK AM 6.12 13.45 6.12 13.38 46.53 6.12 13.45 6.12

PPM IP 20.56 30.97 14.85 21.39 50.16 20.56 30.97 14.85

PPK IP 5.55 6.12 13.45 6.12 6.12 13.45 6.12 6.12

PPM PM 20.38 30.71 14.60 21.39 50.16 20.38 30.71 14.60

PPK PM 5.55 6.12 13.45 6.12 6.12 13.45 6.12 6.12

PPM OP 20.56 30.97 14.85 21.39 50.16 20.56 30.97 14.85

PPK OP 5.55 6.12 13.45 6.12 6.12 13.45 6.12 6.12

2.5 Validation Results

A summary of the traffic model validation is presented in Table 2 to Table 4.



Table 2: WMMTM Model Calibration and Validation Summary AM Peak

GEH Range Flow Criterion GEH or Flow Criterion

<5 5 to 7.5 7.5 to 10 >10 Total PASS FAIL Total PASS FAIL Total

Cal - Core 136 15 12 7 170 138 32 170 144 26 170

Cal - Non Core 100 3 3 1 107 98 9 107 100 7 107

Cal - Total 236 18 15 8 277 236 41 277 244 33 277

Val - Core 36 5 1 4 46 32 14 46 37 9 46

Val - Non Core 46 10 4 6 66 48 18 66 49 17 66

Val - Total 82 15 5 10 112 80 32 112 86 26 112

Total 318 33 20 18 389 316 73 389 330 59 389

Calibration % 85% 6% 5% 3% 85% 15% 88% 12%

Validation % 73% 13% 4% 9% 71% 29% 77% 23%

Total % 82% 8% 5% 5% 81% 19% 84.8% 15%

Source: WMMTM

Table 3: WMMTM Model Calibration and Validation Summary Inter Peak



Cal - Core 138 19 10 3 170 148 22 170 148 22 170

Cal - Non Core 101 4 0 2 107 101 6 107 102 5 107

Cal - Total 239 23 10 5 277 249 28 277 250 27 277

Val - Core 35 5 1 5 46 36 10 46 37 9 46

Val - Non Core 48 9 7 2 66 48 18 66 51 15 66

Val - Total 83 14 8 7 112 84 28 112 88 24 112

Total 322 37 18 12 389 333 56 389 338 51 389

Calibration % 86% 8% 4% 2% 90% 10% 90% 10%

Validation % 74% 13% 7% 6% 75% 25% 79% 21%

Total % 83% 10% 5% 3% 86% 14% 87% 13%

Source: WMMTM



Table 4: WMMTM Model Calibration and Validation Summary PM Peak



Cal - Core 136 18 11 5 170 141 29 170 145 25 170

Cal - Non Core 94 6 2 5 107 96 11 107 96 11 107

Cal - Total 230 24 13 10 277 237 40 277 241 36 277

Val - Core 33 5 1 7 46 30 16 46 34 12 46

Val - Non Core 51 11 1 3 66 54 12 66 55 11 66

Val - Total 84 16 2 10 112 84 28 112 89 23 112

Total 314 40 15 20 389 321 68 389 330 59 389

Calibration % 83% 9% 5% 4% 86% 14% 87% 13%

Validation % 75% 14% 2% 9% 75% 25% 79% 21%

Total % 81% 10% 4% 5% 83% 17% 85% 15%

Source: WMMTM



2.6 Application of the Variable Demand Model (VDM)

A demand model has been developed in EMME software. The key characteristics of the model

include:

● Mode choice - includes car, bus, rail, park and ride and active travel;

● Reflects parking constraints within town centre.

The demand model includes the following choice processes:

● Trip frequency: the adjustment of total trip-making up or down;

● Mode and macro-time period choice: a choice between modes of highway, bus and rail; and

● Attraction choice (trip distribution): a choice of where to travel to.

Each of these models will be applied based on changes in ‘generalised cost’ (which includes both

monetary costs and travel times) by mode, time period and movement.

2.7 Model Software

The model includes a highway network developed in SATURN software. Key characteristics of

the model include:

● Full junction simulation within modelled study area;

● Includes ‘blocking back’ from upstream junctions; and

● Reflects reallocation of carriageway space to other modes.

The public transport model has been developed in EMME software. Key characteristics of the

model include:

● Detailed representation of bus service within to / from borough;

● Representation of rail services through the borough; and

● Consideration of capacity to represent crowding constraints.

2.8 Model Validation Report

Further details of the base year model development and performance can be found in the Model

Validation Report.



3 Uncertainty Log and Forecast Years

3.1 Development Uncertainty Log

An inventory of future year proposed land-use changes has been documented in a model

development uncertainty log. This log provides a listing of housing developments and

employments sites with reference to the following data sources: Strategic Housing Land

Availability Assessment (SHLAA) and Employment Economic Development Needs Assessment

(EDNA). The employment and housing sites identified during this process are shown in Table 5

and Table 6 respectively.

Table 5: Future Year Employment Development Uncertainty Log

Site Ref Site Name WBC Uncertainty Level

Land Use Sub Lane Use

Year Opening

Total Site Area

Total GFA

EDNA001 Stanley Street

Near Certain Employment B1 2025 0.05 1677

EDNA002 Plot R Centre Park

Near Certain Employment B1a 2020 0.26 2007

EDNA003 910 Centre Park


EDNA007 Gemini 16 Near Certain Employment

2025 2.2

EDNA008 Land off Bewsey Road

Near Certain Employment B1c/B8 2026 0.15 580

EDNA009 Gemini 8 Near Certain Employment

2020 5.21

EDNA010 Novelis UK Near Certain Employment B2 2020 0.3 3012

EDNA011 The Quadrant Birchwood

Near Certain Employment B2/B8 2032 1.87 12225

EDNA012 Birchwood Park Redev

Near Certain Employment B1/B2/B8

2020 11.66 72089

EDNA013 Benson Road

Near Certain Employment B1a 2020 0.24 2400

EDNA014 Lingley Mere Ph 1 Rem


EDNA015 Lingley Mere Ph 3

Near Certain Employment B1/B2/B8

2020 3.62 15850

EDNA004 Omega 1 (4L)

Near Certain Employment

2019 2.06

EDNA005 Omega 1&2 Near Certain Employment B1/B2/B8

2027 29.06 242391

EDNA006 Omega 7 Rem

Near Certain Employment B2/B8 2020 33.7 78682

Source: <Insert Notes or Source>



Table 6: Future Year Housing Development Uncertainty Log

Site Reference

Site Name WBC Uncertainty Level Year Opening

308 Land at Appleton Cross More Than Likely 2026

1090 Beers Building Co More Than Likely 2026

1108 Edwards Cheshire Near Certain 2023

1178 Cardinal Newman High School Near Certain 2027

1412 Land at Dawson House, Near Certain 2023

1506 Peel Hall Reasonably Foreseeable 2032

1516 Land off Stretton Rd / Arley Rd, Appleton Thorn Near Certain 2022

1541 Arpley Meadows (mid parcel immediately abutting the west coast mainline)

Reasonably Foreseeable 2032

1633 Arpley Meadows (most western parcel) Reasonably Foreseeable 2032

1646 Grappenhall Heys - Remainder More Than Likely 2028

1650 Land at Pewterspear Green Near Certain 2023

1715 Spectra Building & Drivetime golf range More Than Likely 2030

1803 Land to North of Birchwood Way More Than Likely 2031

2134 Lingley Mere Business Park Near Certain 2025

2135 Omega Near Certain 2030

2466 Warrington Central Trading Estate More Than Likely 2028

2583 Disused Railway Line (Parcel 2) More Than Likely 2027

2584 Disused Railway Line (Parcel 3) More Than Likely 2025

2672 Land south of Wilson Patten Street (inc former Mr Smiths)

More Than Likely 2031

2673 New Town House More Than Likely 2027

2682 Land bounded by Winwick Road, Orford Lane and Bluecoat Street

More Than Likely 2031

2908 Former Bayleaf PH Near Certain 2021


Future year transport schemes were identified in discussion with Warrington Borough Council,

these are presented in Table 7.



Table 7: Future Year Transport Schemes

Scheme ID

Scheme Name Warrington Uncertainty Level

Year Opening

1 M62 Junction 8 Near Certain 2018

2 Skyline Drive Near Certain 2016

3 Centre Park Link Near Certain 2019

4 Warrington West Station Near Certain 2019

5 Warrington East Phase 2 Near Certain 2018 - 2021

6 Omega Local Highway Schemes Near Certain 2018 -2021

7 Birchwood Way/ Long Lane Diversion/ Northern Orbital Public Transport Corridor & Dallam Bus Only Links

Reasonably Foreseeable / Hypothetical

8 Warrington East Phase 3-4 Reasonably Foreseeable / Hypothetical

9 Warrington Waterfront Western Link (High Level Ship Canal Crossing)

The scheme

10 A49 Winwick Road / A574 Cromwell Avenue (LA Bowl)

Reasonably Foreseeable / Hypothetical

11 Cockhedge Roundabout Reasonably Foreseeable / Hypothetical

12 Church Place Roundabout Reasonably Foreseeable / Hypothetical

13 Wrights Lane Distributor & Extension to A49 Reasonably Foreseeable / Hypothetical

14 Howshoots Link Road Reasonably Foreseeable / Hypothetical

15 Warrington Garden City Link Reasonably Foreseeable / Hypothetical

16 Trigger Pond Junction Reasonably Foreseeable / Hypothetical

17 Peel Hall Distributor & M62 Crossing Reasonably Foreseeable / Hypothetical

18 Bridgefoot Link & Brian Bevan Island Reasonably Foreseeable / Hypothetical

19 Omega Zone 3- 6 Junction Improvements Near Certain 10 years

20 M6 Junctions 20 & A50 / B5356 Improvement Reasonably Foreseeable / Hypothetical

21 M56 Junction 10 Improvement Reasonably Foreseeable / Hypothetical

22 Motorway to Motorway Smart - Croft Interchange Near Certain 2017

23 Smart Motorway M62 J10 - J12 Near Certain 2018

24 Smart Motorway M6 J21A - J26 Near Certain 2020

25 Mersey Gateway Near Certain 2017

26 M56 Junction 11a Reasonably Foreseeable 2020




3.2 Future Forecasts Years

Traffic forecasts have been developed for two future years:

● First Forecast Year – 2026

● Second Forecast Year - 2036

These forecast years represent mid-point and full development phases in respect of the known

planned increases in housing and employment numbers; estimated at 10 and 20 years into the

future.



4 Reference Forecast Demand and Supply

4.1 Traffic Growth

Traffic growth between the 2016 base year and future forecast years has been estimated using a

combination of future developments and future growth from the National Trip End Model.

A Do Minimum scenario is required as a reference upon which to assess the economic effects of

the proposed scheme intervention. An uncertainty log has been used to identify schemes and

developments for inclusion in the Do Minimum scenario. The Do Minimum includes all

developments and schemes classified as "Near certain" or "More than likely".

The housing and employment development included in the core Do Minimum scenario are

presented in Table 8 and Table 9 respectively.

Table 8: Housing Development included in Future Year Transport Model

Site

Ref.

Site Name Uncertainty

Level

Year

Opening

Total

Units

2026

units

2036

units

308 Land at Appleton Cross More Than Likely 2026 370 370 370

1090 Beers Building Co More Than Likely 2026 158 158 158

1108 Edwards Cheshire Near Certain 2023 76 76 76

1178 Cardinal Newman High School Near Certain 2027 110 110 110

1412 Land At Dawson House, Near Certain 2023 147 147 147

1516 Land off Stretton Rd / Arley

Rd, Appleton Thorn

Near Certain 2022 79 79 79

1646 Grappenhall Heys -

Remainder

More Than Likely 2028 400 352 400

1650 Land at Pewterspear Green Near Certain 2023 180 180 180

1715 Spectra Building & Drivetime

golf range


1803 Land to North of Birchwood

Way


2134 Lingley Mere Business Park Near Certain 2025 275 275 275

2135 Omega Near Certain 2030 1100 828 1100

2466 Warrington Central Trading

Estate


2583 Disused Railway Line (Parcel

2)


2584 Disused Railway Line (Parcel

3)


2672 Land south of Wilson Patten

Street (inc former Mr Smiths)


2673 New Town House More Than Likely 2027 110 110 110

2682 Land bounded by Winwick

Road, Orford Lane and

Bluecoat Street


2908 Former Bayleaf PH Near Certain 2021 93 93 93

Source: Warrington SHLAA



Table 9: Employment Development included in Future Year Transport Model

Site Ref. Site Name Uncertainty

level

Sub Lane

Use

Year

Opening

Total

GFA

Total

GFA

2026

Total

GFA

2036

EDNA001 Stanley Street Near Certain B1 2025 1677 1677 1677

EDNA002 Plot R Centre Park Near Certain B1a 2020 2007 2007 2007

EDNA003 910 Centre Park Near Certain B1 2020 604 604 604

EDNA007 Gemini 16 Near Certain

2025

EDNA008 Land off Bewsey

Road

Near Certain B1c/B8 2026 580 580 580

EDNA009 Gemini 8 Near Certain

2020

EDNA010 Novelis UK Near Certain B2 2020 3012 3012 3012

EDNA011 The Quadrant

Birchwood

Near Certain B2/B8 2032 12225 12225 12225

EDNA012 Birchwood Park

Redev

Near Certain B1/B2/B8 2020 72089 72089 72089

EDNA013 Benson Road Near Certain B1a 2020 2400 2400 2400

EDNA014 Lingley Mere Ph 1

Rem

Near Certain B1 2020 8808 8808 8808

EDNA015 Lingley Mere Ph 3 Near Certain B1/B2/B8 2020 15850 15850 15850

EDNA004 Omega 1 (4L) Near Certain

2019

EDNA005 Omega 1&2 Near Certain B1/B2/B8 2027 24239

1

24239

1

24239

1

EDNA006 Omega 7 Rem Near Certain B2/B8 2020 78682 78682 78682

Traffic relating to new development identified in the uncertainty log has been represented in the

model explicitly, and overall growth has been applied based on growth forecast from the National

Trip End Model (NTEM) included in TEMPRO 7.2.

There is an overall constraint on trip numbers at the Warrington district area level to match the

growth forecast in version 7.2 of National Trip End Model Forecasts (NTEM). This method of

producing forecast trip matrices is in accordance with DfT guidance on forecasting and

uncertainty, as set out in TAG Unit M4.

4.2 Transport Supply

The highway schemes included in the Do Minimum network are shown in Table 10:

Table 10: Transport schemes included in Future Year Transport Model

Log

Reference

Scheme Name Uncertainty

Level

Year

Opening

in 2026

model

in 2036

model

1 M62 Junction 8 Near Certain 2018 Y Y

3 Centre Park Link Near Certain 2019 Y Y

4 Warrington West Station Near Certain 2019 Y Y

5 Warrington East Phase 2 Near Certain 2018 -

2021

Y Y

6 Omega Local Highway Schemes Near Certain 2018 -

2021

Y Y

19 Omega Zone 3- 6 Junction Improvements Near Certain 10 years Y Y



Log

Reference

Scheme Name Uncertainty

Level

Year

Opening

in 2026

model

in 2036

model

22 Motorway to Motorway Smart - Croft

Interchange

Near Certain 2017 Y Y

23 Smart Motorway M62 J10 - J12 Near Certain 2018 Y Y

24 Smart Motorway M6 J21A - J26 Near Certain 2020 Y Y

Mersey Gateway Near Certain 2017 Y Y

All the Do Minimum schemes above are expected to be implemented by 2026, so the resultant

2026 and 2036 SATURN Do Minimum networks are identical.

Note M56 junction 11a was identify as a future year scheme during the development of the

uncertainty log. However, at the time the log was being developed no announcement had been

made about the scheme and it was therefore not included in the Do Minimum.



5 Equilibrium Demand Forecasts

5.1 Forecast Year Generalised Costs

Table 11 shows the future year generalised cost parameters included in the model.

Table 11: Future Year Generalised Cost Parameters (pence per minute, pence per km)

Year VOT Time Period User Class

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

2026 PPM AM 23.87 35.65 16.48 25.28 59.27 23.87 35.65 16.48

2026 PPK AM 5.8 13.09 5.8 13.34 53.55 5.8 13.09 5.8

2026 PPM IP 24.29 36.6 17.54 25.28 59.27 24.29 36.6 17.54

2026 PPK IP 5.8 13.09 5.8 13.34 53.55 5.8 13.09 5.8

2026 PPM PM 24.08 36.28 17.25 25.28 59.27 24.08 36.28 17.25

2026 PPK PM 5.8 13.09 5.8 13.34 53.55 5.8 13.09 5.8

2026 PPM OP 24.29 36.6 17.54 25.28 59.27 24.29 36.6 17.54

2026 PPK OP 5.8 13.09 5.8 13.34 53.55 5.8 13.09 5.8

2036 PPM AM 29.16 43.55 20.13 30.88 72.4 29.16 43.55 20.13

2036 PPK AM 5.55 12.8 5.55 13.38 55.27 5.55 12.8 5.55

2036 PPM IP 29.68 44.71 21.43 30.88 72.4 29.68 44.71 21.43

2036 PPK IP 5.55 12.8 5.55 13.38 55.27 5.55 12.8 5.55

2036 PPM PM 29.42 44.32 21.08 30.88 72.4 29.42 44.32 21.08

2036 PPK PM 5.55 12.8 5.55 13.38 55.27 5.55 12.8 5.55

2036 PPM OP 29.68 44.71 21.43 30.88 72.4 29.68 44.71 21.43

2036 PPK OP 5.55 12.8 5.55 13.38 55.27 5.55 12.8 5.55

5.2 VDM Convergence Statistics

Table 12 shows the variable demand model Do Minimum and Do Something convergence

statistics.

Table 12: Variable Demand Model Convergence Statistics

2026 2036

Iterations Gap Iterations Gap

Do Minimum 5 0.064 5 0.089

Do Something 5 0.038 4 0.081

5.3 Changes in Demand

The changes in demand from the base year to the future year Do Minimum are shown in Table 13

for both forecast years.



Table 13: Change in Overall Demand by Forecast Year (PCUs)

Absolute Values (PCUs) Growth from Base

User class Base Year AM

Base Year PM

2026 AM 2026 PM 2036 AM 2036 PM 2026 AM 2026 PM 2036 AM 2036 PM

Total 471542.8 485209.2 523054.7 536976.3 556308.1 570604.6 1.09 1.09 1.16 1.16

Car - Commute 234555.2 195133 241325.7 200839 252603.3 210109.1 1.06 1.06 1.11 1.11

Car - Business 25270.25 29350.06 31872.54 38369.69 33491.31 40159.38 1.07 1.07 1.13 1.12

Car - Other 153263.2 208446.5 160377.9 217683.4 169102.3 229434.8 1.08 1.08 1.14 1.14

LGV 43243.66 41447.2 54919.35 52637.92 65297.79 62585.22 1.27 1.27 1.51 1.51

OGV 15210.4 10832.5 16123.21 11482.61 17035.69 12132.41 1.06 1.06 1.12 1.12

Source: WMMTM



5.4 Impacts of VDM in the Do Something

The impacts of the variable demand model on changes in demand with the So Something

scheme in place are shown in Table 14 to Table 17 by sector.

Table 14: Demand Changes Do Something v Do Minimum (2026)

Town Centre Warrington North

Warrington South

External South

External North

Total

Town

Centre

-60 70 -40 80 180 230

Warrington North

240 -1120 1380 410 -320 590

Warrington South

-60 660 -540 -190 170 40

External South

10 340 -130 -30 30 220

External North 340 -150 360 20 -870 -300

Total 470 -200 1030 290 -810 780

Source: WMMTM

Table 15: Percentage Demand Changes Do Something v Do Minimum (2026)


Warrington South

External South

External North

Total

Town

Centre

0% 0% 1% 4% 2% 1%

Warrington North

2% -4% 23% 8% -1% 1%

Warrington South

2% 11% -4% -2% 3% 0%

External South

1% 8% -3% 0% 0% 0%

External North 3% -1% 4% 0% 0% 0%

Total 2% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%

Source: WMMTM

Table 16: Demand Changes Do Something v Do Minimum (2036)


Warrington South

External South

External North

Total

Town

Centre

-60 70 -30 90 200 270

Warrington North

270 -1150 1440 460 -350 670

Warrington South

-70 690 -560 -190 230 100

External South

10 360 -120 -50 90 290

External North 390 -160 370 110 -1060 -350

Total 540 -190 1100 420 -890 980

Source: WMMTM



Table 17: Percentage Demand Changes Do Something v Do Minimum (2036)


Warrington South

External South

External North

Total

Town

Centre

0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0%

Warrington North

1% -3% 17% 5% -1% 1%

Warrington South

-1% 9% -3% -2% 3% 0%

External South

0% 5% -2% 0% 0% 0%

External North 2% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%

Total 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%

Source: WMMTM



6 Assignment Results

6.1 Highway Assignment Model Convergence

WebTAG Unit M3.1 contains guidance on convergence measures of proximity and stability, these

are presented Table 18.

Table 18: Summary of Acceptability Criteria

Element Criteria Time Period Vehicle Type

Convergence Gap TAG criteria – 0.1% All Total flow

P<1% - percentage of link flows

changing by <1% TAG Criteria – 4 iterations >98% All Total flow

Source: WebTAG Unit M3.1

The highways model assignment convergence statistics for the 2026 and 2036 Do Minimum and

Do Something core scenarios are shown in Table 19. The models converge within the

convergence criteria.

Table 19: Forecast Highways Assignment Convergence

Year Scenario Time Period Final Loop % Flow % GAP

2026 Do-Min

AM 38 99.30 0.003

IP 23 99.50 0.002

PM 86 99.30 0.008

2036 Do-Min

AM 110 99.20 0.002

IP 27 99.40 0.003

PM 58 99.00 0.004

2026 Do-Something

VDM CORE3

AM 37 99.00 0.004

IP 21 99.10 0.001

PM 120 98.90 0.003

2036 Do-Something

VDM CORE3

AM 50 98.60 0.006

IP 24 99.20 0.001

PM 122 99.50 0.004



6.2 Forecast Traffic Flows

To analyse the key movements of model performance, a series of screenlines and cordons were

set up, which can be seen in Figure 5

Figure 5: Location of Screenline and Cordons for Traffic Flow Comparison

6.3 Ship Canal Screenline

The Ship Canal Screenline follows the Manchester ship canal, which goes north of Halton and

south of Warrington town centre. All routes crossing the ship canal covers all north-south

movement through Warrington. When the scheme is included it shows which north-south

movements have been displaced from each link and onto the scheme road. The traffic flows on

this screenline in the Do Minimum and Do Something are shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Forecast Traffic Flows on Ship Canal Screenline (AAWT Two Way PCUs)

Road Name 2026 DM 2036 DM 2026 DS 2036 DS

A533 (Silver Jubilee) 22949 27396 21468 25209

Mersey Gateway Bridge 66170 73382 63728 71281

A5060 32382 33467 25524 26886

A49 19075 19924 16415 17051

Ackers Rd 13574 14407 12739 13564

Knutsford Road A50 29451 29959 29170 29770

M6 208856 218597 207114 217103

Total 392457 417133 376158 400865

Scheme 0 0 31922 33731

Total with Scheme 392457 417133 408080 434596



Source: WMMTM

6.4 River Mersey Screenline

The River Mersey screenline, running just north of the Manchester ship canal, is similar to the

ship canal screenline, as it measures north-south movements. The performance of the scheme

using the River Mersey screenline is shown in Table 21.

Table 21: Forecast Traffic Flows – River Mersey Screenline (two-way AAWT PCUs)


A533 (Silver Jubilee) 22949 27396 21468 25209

Mersey Gateway Bridge 66170 73382 63728 71281

Centre Park Link 14625 14779 4493 4841

Park Blvd 8083 8399 e8207 8519

A5061 Bridgefoot Rbt 57071 59726 50236 52197

A50 Kingsway S 32074 32727 30944 31710

M6 208856 218597 207114 217103

Total 409828 435006 386191 410862

Scheme 0 0 32152 34016

Total with Scheme 409828 435006 418343 444878

Source: WMMTM

6.5 Warrington Town Cordon

The Warrington town centre cordon monitors the amount of traffic heading into and out of

Warrington town centre. One of the scheme objectives is to reduce traffic in the town centre, so a

decrease in flow across this cordon is expected. The performance of the scheme to reduce town

centre traffic is shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Forecast Traffic Flows – Warrington Town Centre Cordon (two-way AAWT PCUs)


A5061 Liverpool Road 26605 27264 16703 17404

A57 Priestley St 24539 25583 23899 25352

B5210 Froghall Ln 11257 11806 11759 12769

Winwick St 6236 6491 5896 6154

A49 Lythgoes Ln 24275 25156 22495 23252

Battersby Ln 15108 15952 14638 15806

A57 Manchester Ln 12275 12773 12330 13179

Church Street 20044 20395 20022 20249

A5061 Bridgefoot 57071 59726 50236 52197

Slutchers Ln (Centre Park Link) 16157 16713 6394 7196

Total 213567 221859 184372 193560

Source: WMMTM

6.6 Scheme Traffic Flows

The proposed Western Link scheme is forecast to carry around 26,610 and 30,980 vehicles per

annual average weekday for the respective forecast years of 2026 and 2036 (Red Route flows).



6.7 Impact on Mersey Gateway

The scheme is forecast to abstract flows from the Mersey Gateway. Abstraction values are

shown in Table 23 and are provided are for 2026 and 2036 future years, based on Annual

Average Daily Traffic Flows (AAWT).

Table 23: Change in Mersey Gateway Traffic Flows - (two-way AAWT PCUs)

Abstraction Percentage Abstraction

Crossing 2026 2036 2026 2036

Mersey Gateway Crossing -3923 -4288 -4% -4%

Source: WMMTM



7 Sensitivity Tests

7.1 Scheme Design

Two alternative scheme designs have been assessed to determine if a similar outcome and value

for money could be achieved with different design standards. The following options were looked

at:

● A lower cost option where only a partial scheme is built.

● A dual carriageway option, which recognises that the preferred option is close to capacity.

Both of the alternative scheme options have been run through the WMMTM.

7.1.1 Lower Cost Option

The lower cost alternative to the preferred scheme is the partial build out option. With this option

the southern section of the route from the Arpley Meadow junction is exactly the same standard

and alignment as the preferred option including the crossing of the West Coast Main Line, Walton

Viaduct and Manchester Ship Canal, and the connection to Chester Road (A56). North of the

Arpley Meadows junction the route terminates prior to the crossing of the River Mersey and then

connects to the existing Forest Way Bridge. The option does not include the new crossing of the

River Mersey or the new route from this point to the A57 Liverpool Road. The scheme alignment

for this option is shown in Figure 6.

7.1.2 Dual Carriageway

The Western Link is designed as a single carriageway road. The modelling of the route in the

2036 forecast year predicts that the flows are close to the capacity of a single carriageway road.

This sensitivity test models the route as a dual carriageway to understand the benefits of

providing additional capacity. This options also includes a grade-separated roundabout at the

junction with the A57. The scheme alignment for this option is shown in Figure 7.



Figure 6: Partial Build Out Option



Figure 7: Dual Carriageway Option



7.2 Supply Sensitivity Test - Centre Park Link

Both the Western Link and Centre Park Link are part of a programme of works for Warrington

Waterfront. A further sensitivity test has been carried out to understand how the programme

(both the Western Link and Centre Park Link) performs against a scenario neither scheme

implemented. For this sensitivity test Centre Park Link was excluded from the Do Minimum but

included in the Do Something along with the Western Link.

7.3 Impact on Traffic Flows

Table 24 shows the AAWT two-way traffic flows along the scheme for the core option and the

three sensitivity tests.

Table 24: Sensitivity Tests - Traffic Flows on the Scheme (AAWT Two Way Flows PCUs)

Test 2026 DS 2036 DS

Preferred Scheme 32152 34016

SENS1 – Dualling 36707 35873

SENS2 – Partial Build Out 23016 23685

SENS3 – Centre Park Link 35152 34016

Source: WMMTM

Table 25 shows the impact of the sensitivity tests on traffic flows across the town centre cordon.

Table 25: Sensitivity Tests - Traffic Flows on Warrington Town Centre Cordon (AAWT Two Way Flows - PCUs)

Road Name SENS1 - Dualling SENS2 – Partial Build Out

SENS3 – Centre Park Link

2026 DS 2036 DS 2026 DS 2036 DS 2026 DS 2036 DS

A5061 Liverpool Road 18136 16470 18970 19796 16703 17404

A57 Priestley St 26121 25282 22468 23977 23899 25352

B5210 Froghall Ln 12911 12847 10884 12158 11759 12769

Winwick St 6813 6112 6012 6282 5896 6154

A49 Lythgoes Ln 24177 23060 23842 24516 22495 23252

Battersby Ln 16317 15901 14840 15844 14638 15806

A57 Manchester Ln 13473 13000 12248 12751 12330 13179

Church Street 22144 20293 19447 19746 20022 20249

A5061 Bridgefoot 54704 51525 52804 55181 50236 52197

Slutchers Ln (Centre Park Link) 6318 6394 8007 8959 6394 7196

Total 201115 190884 189522 199211 184372 193560

Source: WMMTM



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Appendix W - Traffic Forecasting Report

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Transcript of Appendix W - Traffic Forecasting Report