“The present has become the past, much faster than...

AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES: ACCELERATING CHANGE

“The present has become the past, much faster than

expected.”

AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES: ACCELERATING CHANGE196 km Drive - Same as going from Whitby to Niagara Falls

This video was filmed under real driving conditions on highway & city



expected.”


Introductions

Doug Hart Andrew Scuse Chris Gillis


About Us… Corporate Training Services

• Durham College Business Unit

• 30 years of experience - Live Training

• Advance eLearn since 1998 (Pioneer)

• Customers: General Motors, Hyundai Canada, Ontario

Power Generation, Insurance Industry … & Municipal

Government/Utilities

• Also Present: DC Office of Research Services, Innovation &

Entrepreneurship … & AVIN

• “Intersection Of Experience” … Leadership/Strategy Training

& Automotive Technology… same team


The Value Challenge?


905 995 4463

(Andrew Scuse)

Text Your Questions:


Big Change… Again


~ 10 Years


Future Shift In Public Opinion?• Tesla AutoPilot

Engaged

• Millions of miles driven per accident

• Rapid Improvement/OTA Updates

• Reminder this is current SAE L2 tech.

0

1.25

2.5

3.75

5

1Q 2Q 3Q 100% Human

9X

Millio

n M

ile

s D

riv

en

Pe

r A

cc

ide

nt

2019 Data


Impact AV OfTechnology

Leading In2020 Complexity

The main thing is to keep the main thing the main thing

Two Key Thoughts


Defining Autonomy

DDT - “Dynamic Driving Task”

LEVEL 0

NoAutomation

LEVEL1

DriverAssistance(Adaptive Cruise)

LEVEL 2

Partial Automation

(+LKAS)

LEVEL 3

Conditional Automation

LEVEL 4

HighAutomation

LEVEL 5

FullAutomation

Local Change?


Impacts Multiple Areas Of Local Government


Era of Low Cost

Ride Hailing Service(EV Low Fuel Costs - AV Low Labour Costs- Ownership?)


Amazon Scout


Sudden Impacts To Multiple Areas Of Local Government

HOLISTIC STRATEGY


AV TECH 101


Sensor Array - Established Technologies • CAMERAS

• LIDAR (MOST)

• RADAR

• ULTRASONIC

• MICROPHONES

• GNNS (GPS) & MAPPING: Local contexts? OGRA… “MACAVO”…

• REAL TIME LOCAL DATA: (road closures, etc)

• Near Future: V2V & V2X (5G)… icy roads … traffic lights?


How Humans & Machines Drive


905 995 4463

(Andrew Scuse)



Impact AV OfTechnology

Leading In2020 Complexity

The main thing is to keep the main thing the main thing

Two Key Thoughts


Doug Hart


2020 Leadership

• Global complexity has hyper-accelerated many industries

• 2020’s - change can be FASTER than the current ability to execute long-term decisions

• Dyson EV - Conceived & Cancelled

• Procrastinate/wait - follow.

• Decide too quickly - wrong investments/commitments



expected.”


Present

Predicted Future


Technology Convergence


Present

Predicted Future


Present

Predicted Future

Actual Future

“Adaptable”

Organization

$$

$

Probes

Complexity

Risk Mitigation


Only One Strategy - “Readiness” Ability To Adapt Quickly Constantly By “Probing” The Complexity


First Mover Advantage?


DevelopmentCosts

DistributionCosts


Some Of The Players

• ARGO - system emphasis (versus specific vehicle application)…

owned by Ford and Volkswagen

• Cruise Automation - GM and Partners (Honda…)

• Tesla - Most real world data

• Waymo… Google - most time in the game… more than ten years


Waymo

Ride Hailing Service


QUIZ: Level 4 or 5?


Tesla’s Strategy

• No Lidar

• Computer vision - more

difficult - more details

• Collect - Analyze - OTA

• 500,000 vehicles

sending data and

growing by more than a

1000/day


Sensing & Controlling Technologies Are Complete. Software Isn’t.


Usually Late.

Usually Comes Through.

He is already late on AV


Over The Air Updates Are A Key Consideration


AV Adoption Speeds?

Time

AdoptionRates

?

Original Expectation

Cadillac 11,918

Porsche 9025

Lincoln 8679

Tesla* 7800

Mini 5978

Chrysler 5681

Genesis 1525

Jaguar 3636


Imagine…

• Autonomous EV “Robotaxi”

• Specially built… auto closing doors required

(riders might leave them open)

• no driver position… maximum passengers,

• What else comes to mind?


1900‘s Vision

Of The Future



Production Ready - Plant Allocated. - 2021


How Humans & Machines Drive


Don’t know.


Edge Cases


~ 180 Decisions Per Minute!


“Chasing The Long Tail”


Chasing The Long Tail Is Complex By Nature - Somewhat unpredictable


Only One Strategy - “Readiness” Ability To Adapt Quickly Constantly Probing The Complexity


Present

Predicted Future

Actual Future

“Adaptable”

Organization

$$

$

Probes

Complexity

“Learning Fast By Constantly

Advancing Slowly”


Chris Gillis


Probing Complexity Questions • 1. Impact on infrastructure: What are the potential

changes on infrastructure that will enable AV adoption? (word cloud)

• 2. What positive impacts do see for your community?

• 3. What negative impacts do see for your community?

• 4. What is the single biggest challenge/obstacle your community will encounter as AV’s are introduced?

• 5. Overall, how ready is your organization? (0-10)Bit/ly


Areas Of Community Impact

How will people and goods move?

How will infrastructure and the physical environment be

impacted?

How will individuals be impacted?

How will community quality of life be

impacted?

How will the economy be impacted?

How will governance, policing & EMS be

impacted?

MobilityInfrastructure &

Environment

Individuals

Community

Economic

Governance


Best Practices? NORich Dialogue & Learning Together? YES


905 995 4463

(Andrew Scuse)


(TENT CARD)


RESULTS?


Doug Hart


Present

Predicted Future

Actual Future

“Adaptable”

Organization

$$

$

Probes

Complexity

“Learning Fast By Constantly

Advancing Slowly”


Leadership Training Example/Sample


Complex vs Complicated

SellingBuilding


Leaders: Guiding the tension between these three interdependent strategic pillars.

• Efficiency… doing things right. This deals with quality, low variation, process design, time to market, incremental continuous improvement and other related activities.

• Effectiveness… spending our limited organizational resources on being “efficient at the right things” that our stakeholders value.

• Adaptability… the ability to recognize that what we are currently doing might not be effective in the future, as disruptive change might be occurring.


Efficient At Something Nobody Wants

• They were Efficient at the procurement

and distribution and rental of DVD’s.

• Effective?

• Agility - get to Internet based consumption

as fast as possible?

• They didn’t get there… R.I.P.


Word Economic Forum

Global Competitiveness Report• “It is no longer possible to rely solely on efficiency and cost-cutting for economic

success: innovation, flexibility and adaptation to change are becoming the key

ingredients.”

• Source: The Global Competitiveness Report 2018 | Page 9

• “Agility and future-readiness are key in a changing world. Amidst the

transformations and disruptions brought about by the 4IR, adaptability and agility

of all stakeholders—individuals, governments and businesses—will be key

features in successful economies.”

• Source: The Global Competitiveness Report 2018 | ix


All Three Pillars Required. Maybe At Different Times and

Seasons… but all three are eventually required.

Efficiency

Effectiveness

Adaptability

Effectiveness

Organizational Performance

Efficiency Effectiveness Adaptability


Efficiency AdaptabilityEfficiency Effectiveness Adaptability

All Three Pillars Required. Maybe At Different Times and

Seasons… but all three are eventually required.


Abstract Link To Adaptability

• If we asked your employees to define what a manager is compared to a leader,

what type of clarity would we see in the answers?

• Leaders do manager, Manages to lead… but different emphasis on each.

• Leaders - Pillars of Effectiveness and Adaptability

• Managers - Pillar of Efficiency

• Partnerships: from this point of view, Leaders & Managers need each other


One Final Thought

Win Like The Tortoise


Andrew Scuse


The Value Challenge?


Supporting You In The Future…• Two Unique Programs:

• Preparing for Rapid Change/Enabling Adaptability…

“Leading In The 2020’s” (Today was a sample).

• Community Readiness - Dialogue (Facilitated Session to Probe Complexity)

• Leadership & Front Line Versions

• Pricing: $3000/day. Class size ~50 or less. Shared events possible.

• Plus: Custom Built Advanced eLearning


Thanks

Doug Hart Andrew Scuse Chris Gillis

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

3:15

mailto:[email protected]


END

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