“Renewable Energy And Its Potential” Martin A. Green University of New South Wales · 2013. 7....
Transcript of “Renewable Energy And Its Potential” Martin A. Green University of New South Wales · 2013. 7....
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Centre of Excellence for Advanced Silicon Photovoltaics and Photonics
- supported by the Australian Research Council
“Renewable Energy And Its Potential”
Martin A. GreenUniversity of New South Wales
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
World Primary Energy Consumption
Use
1 day1 week
1 year
Yearly consumption= 12 billion tonnes of oil equivalent= 18 billion tonnes of coal equivalent
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Yearly Energy Use/Year versusOne Day’s Solar
Use
Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Sustainability Challenge
. tap into a small fraction (0.01%) of
incident solar to provide commercial
energy requirements
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Wind/Photovoltaics
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Carbon Fuel Electricity Prices/Sydney
SUPPLY COSTc/KWh 2003 PRICES
80
60
40
20
01910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Learning Curve100
4
2
10
64
2
110 100 1000
1981
Progress ratio 77.2%
2000
Global cumulative MW produced
6Parente et al.,Prog. in PV,Vol. 10, 2002,p. 555
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Installed Capacity
0
10
20
30
40
5019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Cap
acity
, GW
WindPhotovoltaics (x10)
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Wind: Turbine Size
1983: 55 kW (
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
First Generation Wafer/Ribbons
Strengths. reliable, durable, etc.Weaknesses. material intensive. < US$1/Wp unlikely. energy payback only 4 yrBUTzero energy if growth > 25%/yr(Lysen, PV in Europe)
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Second Generation Thin-Films
. low materials cost
. large manufacturing unit
. fully integrated modules
. aesthetics
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Thin Film Discriminators
. market acceptability (toxic?)
. stability, durability
. manufacturability
. efficiency/cost trade-off
. size of competitive factory
. investment risk
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Which Thin-Film?α-Si/µc-Si +materials, maturity
- stability, efficiency, cost?
CIS + efficiency potential- manufacturability? robustness? toxicity?
CdTe + manufacturability- toxicity, robustness?
Titania dye + simplicity, uniqueness- liquids, stability, efficiency? toxicity?
Poly-Si/glass + materials, robustness, manufacturability- demonstrated efficiency
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
My favourite (of course!)
0.0 .50 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
CIS
Manf A c-Si
Manf B c-Si
Manf C c-Si
Manf D mc-Si
CSG MkI
CSG MkII
CSG MkIII*
Combined Cycles for 20% Degradation
Metal
Resin
n+
Textured glass'Crater' 'Groove' 'Dimple'
Light In
p Siliconp+
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
“Dawn of a New Solar Era”First CSG factory, Germany, April, 2005
Eliminates wafer cost/availability constraints
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
II. Efficiency/cost
II
100
80
60
20
0 100 200 300 400 500
US$0.50/W
US$1.00/W
US$3.50/W
Cost, US$/m2
US$0.10/W US$0.20/W
Present limit
Thermodynamiclimit
40
I
Effic
ienc
y,%
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Efficiency Limits
Tc .
ES
EC
.
Q
S = Q/TA
SG > 0
TA
SS
SC
W
. .
.
.
.
.
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Third Generation
?. thin-film. high efficiency
(> single junction). abundant materials. non-toxic. stable, durable
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Percentage of World Electricity
20%
10%
02000 2010 2020 2030 2040
PV x 10
wind
PV
Source: European Wind and PV Associations. Greenpeace
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Actual vs Projected
0.1
1
10
100
1000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Ann
ual p
rodu
ctio
n, G
W
EPIA/ G'peace projection
Actual
1% milestone
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Green Visions
. Energy efficiency promoted
. 1% electricity by wind by 2007
. 10% by 2020, 20% by 2032
. 1% electricity from solar by 2020
. 10% by 2032, over 25% by 2040
Centre of Excellence for Advanced Silicon Photovoltaics and Photonics - supported by the Australian Research CouncilWorld Primary Energy ConsumptionYearly Energy Use/Year versus One Day’s SolarSustainability ChallengeLearning CurveInstalled CapacityThin Film DiscriminatorsWhich Thin-Film?Percentage of World ElectricityActual vs Projected