“Diversity” in the Networked World

Dr. Dr. J. Schwarz Da SilvaDirector - Network and Communication Technologies

DG-INFSO, European Commission

PIMRC 2006 Conference13 September 2006, Helsinki, Finland

A diversified networked landscape making possible a variety of low cost consumer choices in Europe is the result of decades of efforts at EU level, through: The emergence of a pro competitive regulatory framework, favouring emergence of new players and of a variety of value chains; The undivided R&D support to industry, enabling EU industry to remain at the forefront of the technological race in the context of an ever growing variety of technological choices and options; The continuing support to the content and media industry, enabling Europe to promote its values and cultural diversity in the digital world; The continuing support to the emergence of various “converged”business models through continuous clarification of the rules governing convergence and related commercial operations

The emergence of a diversified networked landscape in the EU

Diversity, convergence, competition and technological choices constitute the various facets of a comprehensive EU ICT policy, as per the i2010 initiative

Competition bearing fruits. 12.8% (of EU population) penetration. Incumbents: less than 50% of the access share. Costs of LLU and shared access have dropped by more than 30% between 2002 and 2005. Access rates in the DSL range, FTTH plans by incumbents. Uneven situation across MS.

Source: COCOM, 4 May 2006

Results -Broadband-

5.7% 6.

3%

6.4% 6.7%

6.8%

9.8%

11.6

%

11.7

%

11.8

%

12.7

%

13.3

% 14.3

% 15.5

%

16.4

%

16.5

%

19.2

% 20.7

% 22.4

%

24.7

%

14.5

%

12.8

%

6.1%

4.4%2.

6%

2.7%

1.4%

12.8

%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

EL SK PL EU10LV HU CY CZ IE LT SI PT ES IT MT DEEU25EE ATEU15LU FR UK BE SE FI DK NL

EU Broadband penetration rate, 1 January 2006

A continued success. All Member States at least at 80% penetration (Poland a little lower), and growth rates still above 6%, some MS above 10%. Increased competition, 79 operators, 214 MVNO’s, declining ARPU .Take off of 3G: 79 licenses 59 commercial networks (09-05),. Video very popular, increased pressure for mobile TV roll out eventually competing with HSDPA

Source: EC, 11th implementation report

Results -Mobile-

ENTERPRISE NETWORKS

PUBLIC FIXED

PUBLIC WIRELESS

ENTER-TAINMENT

INFORMATION MANAGEMENT

COMMUNI-CATIONS

MEDIA

TELCOS

IT SYSTEMS

TELECOMVENDORS

CONSUMER ELECTRONICS

IT VENDORS

..The creation of new value chains, new business models,

new market structure, new business entities, new

competitors… and new opportunities.

Progressive convergence of these technologies enable

DevicesEnd-user Services Media/Content

Service Providers

Networks/ Technologies

Consumers• Households• Youth• Professional• Seniors• etcBusiness• SME• CorporatesHomesAutomobiles

Fixed phoneMobile PhoneDesktop PCLaptopPDASmartphonePersonal GatewayCameraMP3 playerGames console

VoiceVoIPEmailIMSMS/TextMMSGamesP2PVideo confVideo streamingeCommerceBrowsingEnterprise appsLocationTelemetryPush-to-Talk

Fixed• BT• DTPure mobile• VodafoneMVNOs, • Virgin• Tele2Fixed/Mobile• Verizon• Orange

Fixed voice PSTNCellular• GSM/GPRS/W-

CDMA/HSDPA• CDMA/1x/EVDO• B3G, 4GFixed Wireless• 802.11• 802.16• 802.20Software defined

radioBluetoothDAB, DVB-H/TUWB

News• CNN• BBCImages & Video• Time Warner• Sony• DisneyMusic• EMI• Sony• Apple i-Tunes

System Integration

Charging & BillingInternet Players

GoogleEbay-SkypeAoLMSN..

It also means a multiplicity of players

Consumer “control”Access to advertising budgets with value models valuing the addressed customer base; Telco models vs Internet models; Cellular models vs Fixed-mobile convergence models; Access to spectrum, broadcast vs mobile vs satcom; Access to content owners; Technology and IPR accessOpen models vs closed models

Leading to interesting challenges

Making the various models possible whilst ensuring level playing competition and customer protection are at the heart of the EC technological and regulatory actions

In the mean time, the end user expects simple solutions

delivering tangible benefits

Any device, any service, anywhereEasy to useFull mobilityFast, reliable and secureTrust and privacy Always best connectedSingle authentication across networks, devices and servicesConsistent personalizationacross devices and servicesConsumer service controlSeamless service continuity across networks

For Business, Leisure and Public Services

An enriched user experience

Significant investment and innovation are needed

Required increase of fixed and mobile bandwidth• HDTV and personal content (blogs, photos,

videos) are key drivers of bandwidth demand• This will require upgrading access networks

for +50 Mbps (VDSL, fibre), 3G roll out, Wimax..A wide range of participants will make use of existing network infrastructure through innovation in services, devices and contentThis will lead to the creation of a significant online content market in Europe• Forecast to be €30 B by 2008• Will provide revenues for a wide range of

players deploying multiple business modelsParticipants will place multiple “bets”on the services of the future – many of which will fail• Removing regulatory uncertainty will be key to

encouraging this investment

Func

tiona

lity

/ Use

r Ben

efits

1998

56 kbps

512 kbps

+2 Mbps

+50 Mbps

Infrastructure and Market Maturity

Low High

High

Broadband Services Evolution

128 kbps

Source: EITO

– E-mail– Search– E-

commerce

•Web Access

–Music –Photos–Short

video

•Enhanced web access

– Music– Premium

video– Gaming– Home

networking

•BB Multimedia

– HDTV– Digital TV: channels and

choices– VOD, DVR– Integration with VoIP– Ubiquitous networking

•BB solutions for communications, information and entertainment

Mobility

The key mission of the EU is to allow sector actors to explore a variety of technological

options.

Both evolutionary as well as disruptive approaches are welcome.

Striving for open innovation by leveraging one another's (even competitors') innovation

assets—products, intellectual property, and people is being successfully experimented in

the context of the R&D Framework programmes

How about diversity in R&D?

Networking RFID/sensors

RFID applications will increase in future. RFID is a pacemaker technology from object-related wireless communications to autonomous cooperative computer and communication systemsA key driver for B3G systems

Com

plex

ity /

Valu

e

timeSources: Siemens CT / STA / CD S, Mitsubishi Electric Research

* electronic Product Code

• Temperature monitoring of food

• Tire pressure• Indoor location sensing

• Optical inventory tags with photo sensors

• Seamless real-time material and process control

• Documentation of total product life-cycles

• Permanent inventory

• Real-time localization on item level

• Protection of trademarks

• Terrorism combat• Event management (VIP, Ticketing)

• Intelligent clothes

ePC* Objects Data ObjectsSensing Objects

Acting Objects

Interacting Objects

• Signaling of use-by date

• Automatic re-order process and pricing

• Alert for health risk• Advanced announcement of delivery goods

• Pervasive computing

• Wearable computing• Smart dust• Machine-to-Machine (M2M) communication

• Situation / Localization based services

Mobile and Wireless• Scenarios under investigation include:

Future cellular networks – alternative radio technologies (WiMax, 4G), open interface for new network and transport protocols, new services (location-aware, media, etc.)Next-generation wireless LAN – emerging radio technologies (802.11n, MIMO), improved MAC layer protocols, multicasting, hybrid cellular/WLAN, securityAd-hoc mesh networks – use of different radio technologies, spectrum coordination, self-organization, scalable/secure routing protocols, cross-layer, QoS supportCognitive radio networks – interference avoidance methods, networks with multiple radio PHY’s, forming adaptive networks, discovery protocols, cross-layer routing, …Sensor networks – power efficient protocols, hierarchical topologies, data aggregation and information flows, content-aware routing, service API’s, real-world applicationsPervasive networks – heterogeneous radio technologies, integration of sensors with WLAN/cellular, dynamic binding protocols, closed loop control applications…

• Wireless Networks should support above scenarios and be flexibleenough for multiple simultaneous experiments

The target is to make possible new economic opportunities through opening of new classes of networked applications. Technological drivers and requirements include:Scalability of device, content.. and architectural impacts; Mobility (new forms of) and broadband; Composability (networks and services)Flexibility and ad hoc configurability, resource optimisation;Security built in from the onset;Architecture, service and complexity management; Context awareness;Edge networking

Pervasive Networking

US/NSF• Creating new core functionality:• Developing enhanced capabilities: • Deploying and validating new architectures: • Designing new architectures; • Building higher-level service abstractions: • Building new services and applications: • Developing new network architecture theoriesASIA / Ubiquitous Japan; Ubiquitous Korea• All encompassing system approach, combining:

device connectivity, selected applications e.g in the medical domain, wireless networks evolution (beyond 3G), service architectures, IPv6 based networking, optical core.

Pervasive NetworkingGlobal Interest & Commitments

A “pervasive networking”

evolution picture is currently

driving ICT R&D globally . Hence,

prospects for International co-

operation are important

Devices bring in another layer of information and knowledge, beyond what can be today searched* on servers

Towards device knowledge: how to make sense of the high-volume of data• Google for devices and sensors?• Data management (current IT systems cannot handle

such volumes of data)

Towards an “augmented”information space

* It is estimated that search engines perform some 6 bn searches per month by American users alone

• With diversity of players and approaches, it is ever more difficult to reconcile potentially opposing forces and approaches:

Classical FRAND IPR model, with patent royalties considered as the fair remuneration of research. Model getting increasingly complex, due to emergence of myriad of players and possible “instability”; Emergence of new models, e.g OSS model or royalty free models; consumer interests (open standards), vs Differentiations (close business models?); Time to market and economic efficiency (standards e.g. “de facto”, not necessarily open)

Is the classical model of collaborative R&D feeding industrial consensus and standards still appropriate? How can R&D impact be

evaluated outside of STDs/wide ranging industrial consensus? How to best couple R&D with standardisation?

Diversity and Interoperability

Plethora of PatentsAmerican firms are the minority on the top-ten

list.Half of the firms in the top ten were absent

from the list a decade ago, showing that the world of innovation is fluid and that no company can presume to maintain leadership forever.

Garnering a plethora of patents does not necessarily mean that a firm is hugely innovative: the brute number says nothing about the value of the inventions. Fewer than 10% of patents have economic worth.

It now takes around three years for a patent to be approved, and today's backlog of 500,000 is expected to double by the end of the decade.

Over the past decade the number of patents grew by almost two-thirds, while the amount of patent litigation roughly doubled , fuelled in part by software patents.

2 단계: 이력 관리2nd Step : Active Tags2nd Step : Active Tags

센싱형Tag센싱형Tag

Tag with battery

Longer range

3rd Step :Sensor Tags3rd Step :Sensor Tags

센싱형Tag센싱형Tag

SensingTag

Sensing & ControlWSN

Products

Identifying product code

센싱형Tag센싱형Tag

PassiveTag

1st Step:Passive RFID Tags1st Step:Passive RFID Tags

Ad-Hoc Network

4th Step : Sensor Network4th Step : Sensor Network

WSN

RFIDTag/Reader

PDA

Sensor

An all encompassing Systems Perspective is needed

Broadband Internet secure InfrastructurePervasive

Wireless

Source SNRKorea

Federating diversity through European Technology Platforms

www.nem-initiative.org

www.emobility.eu.org

www.isi-initiative.eu.org/

www.nessi-initiative.org

Large Scale EU Partnerships joining the

future

Materialising EU industry commitment

Putting in place large scale partnerships, including SME’s and academia

Taking a system and end to end approach

Demonstrating economic and competitiveness impact

Defining the EU long term Strategic Research Agenda’s

Acting as vector of strategic co-operation with third countries

Implementing research and downstream deployment issues (regs, stds..)

HealthFood, Agriculture and Biotechnology

Information and Communication TechnologiesNanosciences, Nanotechnologies, Materials and new Production TechnologiesEnergyEnvironment (including Climate Change)Transport (including Aeronautics)Socio-Economic Sciences and the HumanitiesSecurity - Space

The 7th Framework Programme Cooperation - 9 Themes

FP7 – StatusICT, the most important budget share: 9.110 Bn€Legislative texts (FP, SP) planned to be agreed by Parliament and Council shortlyRules for Proposals (including rules for participation and IPR) to be finalised over same periodSlow start expenditure profile, culminating in 2013ICT: “Challenge” based work programmeCurrent priority - finalising the ICT Work Programme:

Draft Work Programme (2 years) sent to MS on 30 August 2006Final WP expected for the IST Conference in Helsinki – Nov 2006First Call (Dec2006/Jan2007)Deadline for submission of proposals -April 2007Second Call – 4 months later

Futu

re a

nd E

mer

ging

Te

chno

logi

es

Cognitive systems, robotics andinteraction

Network and service infrastructures

Components, subsystems and embedded systems

Digital content and knowledge

ICT for health

Intelligent car and sustainable growth

ICT for independent living and inclusion

End-to-end systems for Socio-economic goals

Tech

nolo

gy ro

adbl

ocks

ICT Work Programme2007-08 DRAFT Challenges

ETPs

Flagships

~2billion Euros

Challenge 1 ‘Pervasive & Trusted Network & Service Infrastructures’

The network of the future Ubiquitous network infrastructures and architecturesOptimised control, management and flexibility of the future network infrastructureTechnologies and systems architectures for the Future Internet

Services & SW Architectures, Infrastructures and EngineeringService architecturesService/SW engineering approachesStrategies and technologies enabling mastery of complexity, dependability and behavioural stabilityVirtualisation tool, system software and network – centric operating systemsEnabling the integration of dynamic service architectures in the networked enterprise

Secure, dependable and trusted infrastructuresSecurity & resilience in network infrastr.Security & trust in dynamic and reconfigurable service architectures Trusted computing infrastructuresIdentity management and privacy enhancing tools

Networked MediaInteroperable MM network & service infrastructure End-to-end systems

Key issues: Scalability (devices, service features, application types…), Flexibility and Diversity (mobility and ubiquity, broadband, multiple technologies, legacy….) , Dependability and security, Harmonised Regulations, Standards, Interoperability

The European Commission is committed to embrace these The European Commission is committed to embrace these challenges, grasp the future and pull Europe forward.challenges, grasp the future and pull Europe forward.

By way of ConclusionWhilst diversity and convergence have brought new opportunities to European industry and consumers, they bring with them a number of new challenges;

In the short term, clarification of regulation and deployment investments are expected to reinforce EU innovation and economic growth;

In the longer term, entirely new forms of communications and of networked application scenarios require to continue ambitious ICT research at EU level, in critical areas such as wireless, Internet, content management, trust.

The upcoming IST programme under FP7 represents a not to be missed opportunity for the sector actors to progress EU leadership in this field;

Technology Platforms have an important role to play, to federate EU level efforts with all players of the value chain.

More than ever, well targeted co-operation with non EU regions will be an important success factor enabling EU research to be leveraged on global markets.