Anticipating local employment and skills needs

Ian Wheeler Head of Research and Labour Market Intelligence

Anticipating local employment and skills needs

•The challenge and response

•Three layers of intelligence

•Developing and using scenarios

•How Skills for Health can assist

The Challenge

• Services need to be responsive and fit for local communities and populations

• But…

– Getting locally meaningful data…always a challenge

– The problem with thinking about the future

– We cannot predict the future – a worthless pursuit?

Our local intelligence response

• But you can develop structures for thinking about the future. This in turn will help you make better decisions. So, we’ll show you how Skills for Health can help you specifically in ;

– Understanding current and future demand for health care– Benchmarking of performance– Using employment data creatively.

– Facilitated bespoke reports– Scenario planning and application

Local intelligence response – making the linkages

Understanding (objectively) the communities we are trying to helpUsing Consumer Profiling information

Health observatory intelligencePatient satisfaction surveys

How well are we doing so far? using key performance indicators derived from SFH Benchmarking

database and intelligence drawn from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

How are we currently doing it? Current profile of Employment and

SkillsLFS, ABI, ESR, staff surveys,

proposed skills passportemployers own data

Then debate the shape of employment and skills development

Understanding current and future demand for health care

• Important to know the current and future shape of demand for the services of the health sector

• Geographical information System – to enable us to plot data on geographical areas of the UK, we can mine very locally

• Consumer Health - Profiles of households health in regions and localities of the United Kingdom

• Consumers Health Profiles are based on analysis of propensity of household consumption on a range of areas

Introducing Consumer Profile Health types

NowNow The futureThe future Further futureFurther future

Existing problemsExisting problems

Future problemsFuture problems

Possible future concernsPossible future concerns

HealthyHealthy

How low can you go?

Example of Local Authority profile of dominant health group in the East of England

Example of District Council level dominant health group in the East of England

Example of Output Area Level profile of Dominant Health Group

Peterborough - Example of Postcode Level

Type 12 - Deprived multi-ethnic estates, smokers and overweight

• 6.3% of Peterborough's resident population ( 10,940 people)

• East of England average 2.8%

• Third of adults are obese

• Significant levels of morbidly obese

• High incidence of

– Anxiety, depression, migraine

– Eczema

– Restless leg syndrome

Health Profile Type 17 – Affluent Professionals, high alcohol consumption, dining out

• East of England – 9.6% of the resident population or 560,000 people

• Locally, less that 1% in Thurrock to 18% of the population in Hertfordshire

• Levels of obesity are higher than normal

• Active lifestyles, frequent dining out

• More than average incidence of:

– Breast cancer

– Prostate cancer

– Kidney disease

Postcodes of Health Profile Type 17

Health Profile Type 19 – Affluent families with some dietary concerns

• 6% of the resident population

• Presence one and a half times higher than the England average

• Locally, less than 1% in Southend-on-Sea up to 10% in Central Bedfordshire

• Tend to be slightly overweight

• Regular alcohol consumption

Postcodes of Health Profile Type 19

County workforce groups in the East of England and comparisons with areas outside

• Bedford - Reading

• Cambridgeshire - County of Herefordshire

• Central Bedfordshire - Hillingdon

• Essex - Isle of Wight but population numbers being so small - Nottinghamshire

• Hertfordshire –Hampshire

• Luton -Waltham Forest

• Norfolk - City of Bristol and Lincolnshire

• Peterborough – Bradford

• Southend on Sea - Derbyshire and Bournemouth

• Suffolk - Gwynedd and Bexley

• Thurrock - Bournemouth

Using benchmarking information

• See how well you are doing against others! • Skills for health brings together 900 pieces of data from a wide

range of organisations including;

– Activity statistics: from referral times and bed days to emergency admissions

– Organisational information: from consultant episodes and establishment numbers through to day case rates, Healthcare Commission healthcheck ratings and patient satisfaction survey results

Using benchmarking information

– Staffing information: from sickness rates to staff satisfaction survey results

– Waiting information: from A&E and cancer wait targets to GP access and delivery of community equipment.

Example of Benchmarking: costs for elective procedures

Hospital waiting times ‘mean days’

Example of Benchmarking – Staff survey

Example of workforce data and intelligence

• Comparing activities and workforce mix

• Layering own projections against current and future demand

• Understanding the local labour market targeting of local labour market pools

• Inter-regional migration –  working age population i.e. the available labour market

• Vacancy data – Job centre plus and NHS vacancy rates

• Job Seekers data by Occupation Sought – is the health sector the employer of choice?

• Contract data i.e. full-time and part-time – is there flexibility in the local workforce

• Skills surveys – skills gaps and shortages

Relating intelligence for a local perspective

Profile of health needs/population

Healthcare activities/establishments

Employment and skills

Then debate the shape of employment and skills development

Rehearsing Uncertain futures – Benefits

• Team building

• Early warnings - Spot early opportunities

• Reducing risk: preparing for possible changes

• Robust decision making: puts decision-makers together with topics and issues which they don't normally consider

• Challenges accepted norms and makes people think about the discontinuities, shocks and changes that are likely to affect them

• Look beyond the daily fire-fighting tasks

• See over the official futures

Rehearsing Uncertain Futures Helping you develop and apply scenarios

Drivers for change

Current state of play

Plausible, credible,

challenging futures

The future (s)

Business and economy class

Its your choice

United we stand

United we standIn this scenario, people take more personal responsibility and there is greater willingness within communities to ‘improve their lot’. Increased volunteering and non-traditional partnerships contribute to healthcare provision. There is stronger cohesion within the EU where Brussels ‘rules’, and the influence of traditional UK institutions is reduced.

Its your choiceHere we see a fragmented self-centred world, reduced influence and number of Quangos. Funding constraints leading to greater inequalities between young and old and between ethnic groups, and decisions on priorities are made locally with no single ownership of health care. Technology and the internet allow people to self-diagnose and take ownership of their diagnostic outcomes.

Business and Economy Class

Emerging economies drive global growth, but the effects are not shared by all, leading to polarisation between the haves and have not’s. A growing older population develops a ‘grey power’ lobby that becomes more influential and looks after its own. As part of a two tier system ‘Robonurse’ links individuals with central monitoring systems so that people can be maintained and supported in their own homes. Spare body parts are

readily accessible over the internet.

SCENARIO 1

SCENARIO 2

SCENARIO 3

Introduce new role?

Give more responsibility to

pharmacists?

Change

skills mix?

Success?

Failure?

Dependent on scenario

31

Testing your options

In Summary

• We bring together a vast range of data and intelligence on the three key areas of

– Demand – Benchmarking of Services– The labour market

• A facilitated process that helps you exploit creatively:– The development of intelligence – Scenario development and application

Your next steps?

• Any Questions?• We are happy to discuss these areas more fully with you.• Don’t hesitate to contact me directly or your Skills for Health regional

director whose contact details are on our website.

• Remember all of what we do is aimed at supporting you with the strategic development of your workforce and aligning workforce plans to service demand.

www.skillsforhealth.org.uk

Ian.wheeler@skillsforhealth.org.uk