Anti-Trust/Competition Law Compliance Statement INTERTANKO’s policy is to be firmly committed to...
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Anti-Trust/Competition Law Compliance Statement INTERTANKO’s policy is to be firmly committed to maintaining a fair and competitive environment in the world tanker trade, and to adhering to all applicable laws which regulate INTERTANKO’s and its members’ activities in these markets. These laws include the anti-trust/competition laws which the United States, the European Union and many nations of the world have adopted to preserve the free enterprise system, promote competition and protect the public from monopolistic and other restrictive trade practices. INTERTANKO’s activities will be conducted in compliance with its Anti-trust/Competition Law Guidelines.
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Transcript of Anti-Trust/Competition Law Compliance Statement INTERTANKO’s policy is to be firmly committed to...
Anti-Trust/Competition Law Compliance Statement
INTERTANKO’s policy is to be firmly committed to maintaining a fair and competitive environment in the world tanker trade, and to adhering to all
applicable laws which regulate INTERTANKO’s and its members’ activities in these markets. These laws include the anti-trust/competition laws which the
United States, the European Union and many nations of the world have adopted to preserve the free enterprise system, promote competition and protect the public from monopolistic and other restrictive trade practices.
INTERTANKO’s activities will be conducted in compliance with its Anti-trust/Competition Law Guidelines.
Thetanker market
_
some issues to consider
[email protected] Research and Projects
NEP - Oslo6 October 2010
Tanker market
• Low freight rates• Many deliveries of new tankers• SH hull tankers marginal• Surplus shibuilding capacity
building up?• Positive economic growth
but uncertainty• High oil price
Source: Baltic Exchange/INTERTANKO
$/day$/day
Average tanker freight rates based on the Baltic rates – until 01 October
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
VLCC AG-Japan, 250,000 ts
Suezmax Wafr-US 130,000 ts
Aframax N Sea-UKCont, 80,000 ts
Product Caribs-US, 38,000 ts
Current Current levelslevels
World GDP and oil demand change
Source. IMF/BP/IEA/Fearnleys
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
GDP growth - IMF
Oil demand growth - IEA
Tonne miles growth - Fearnleys
%
Oil demand
World oil demand
mbd
Source. IEA
Increase in Middle East, USA, China and ROW**
1Q06-4Q11
Total oil demand
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
3Q09
1Q10
3Q10
1Q11
3Q11
ProjectionSource IEA
-2.6
-2.2
-1.8
-1.4
-1.0
-0.6
-0.2
0.2
0.6
1.0
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
China USAMiddle East * Rest of worldWorld
Oth. Asia: + 0.31 mbdL America: + 0.21 "FSU: +0.10 " Africa: +0.12 "
Others: -0.15 "
mbd
Source: IEA
European crude oil import by source
mbd – import by source mbd total import
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1H10
0.0
3.3
6.6
9.9
13.2
16.5
America Europe Middle East
Africa FSU Others
Total Consumption
Source: IEA/INTERTANKO
N America crude oil import by sourceMbd – import by source Mbd total import
0.0
0.8
1.6
2.4
3.2
4.0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1H10
0.00
2.60
5.20
7.80
10.40
13.00
N America
Europe
Mdl East
Africa
Venez/Ecu
Others
FSU
Total Import
Source: IEA/INTERTANKO
OECD Pacific crude oil import by source
mbd – import by source mbd total import
0.00
1.20
2.40
3.60
4.80
6.00
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1H10
0.00
1.50
3.00
4.50
6.00
7.50
Middle East OthersAmerica EuropeAfrica Total
Middle East
Source: IEA
Chinese crude oil demand and production
mbd
0
2
4
6
8
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Other Products
Residual Fuel Oil
Gas/DieselOil
Jet & Kerosene
Motor Gasoline
LPG&Ethane/Naphtha
Crude oil production
21%
33%
17%
21%20%
17%
33%
14%
5%
12%
Source; IEA
Middle East oil production Jan - 2000 to Aug - 2010
mbd
18
19
20
21
22
23
2401
/01/
00
01/0
7/00
01/0
1/01
01/0
7/01
01/0
1/02
01/0
7/02
01/0
1/03
01/0
7/03
01/0
1/04
01/0
7/04
01/0
1/05
01/0
7/05
01/0
1/06
01/0
7/06
01/0
1/07
01/0
7/07
01/0
1/08
01/0
7/08
01/0
1/09
01/0
7/09
01/0
1/10
01/0
7/10
Monthly
Yearly average
Source: IEA
Primo July 2003 VLCCrate AG-Japan $7000/day
Primo July 2008 $181,600/day
4 Oct. 2010 $6,500/day
Source: INTERTANKO/IEA
FSU petroleum export, crude oil by outlet and total products
mbd
0.0
0.6
1.2
1.8
2.4
3.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 7m
Black Sea
Baltic Sea
Artic/FarEast
Druzba Pipeline
Other Routes
Products
BTC pipeline
Export outlet:
Russian oil production reached a record of 10.16M barrels per day in September
Source; EIA/IEA/SAJ
Product import
mbd
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Europe US Japan
Source: IEA
European product import by source
mbd – import by source
0.0
0.7
1.4
2.1
2.8
3.5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1H10
0.00
1.30
2.60
3.90
5.20
6.50
FSU OPECNetherlands Middle EastOthers Total
Source: IEA
mbd total import
Source: EIA
US gasoline import
mbd
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Source; EIA
US product export
mbd
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
1 4 7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
2000 - 0.987 mbd2007 - 1.228 mbd2008 - 1.421 mbd2009 - 1.797 mbd2010 - 1.848 mbd
Source: BP/INTERTANKO
Oil consumption - by product group % shareNorthern winter season less prevalent
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%19
6519
6619
6719
6819
6919
7019
7119
7219
7319
7419
7519
7619
7719
7819
7919
8019
8119
8219
8319
8419
8519
8619
8719
8819
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
10
Light distillates Middle distillates
Fuel oil Others
World Fuel oil: 1979 13.8 mbd 2010 9.4 mbd
Middle East Fuel oil: 1979 0.6 mbd 2010 1.9 mbd
European fuel oil share of total:European fuel oil share of total: 10%10%US fuel oil share of total:US fuel oil share of total: 3% 3%
Tanker supply
Tanker Fleet Development 120-200,000 dwt
35
46
57
68
79
9019
92
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
m dwt
260
319
378
437
496
555
Number
dwt
number
Source: Clarkson Shipyard Monitor/INTERTANKO
$ bn investment$ bn investment
Orders for new tankers - bn $m dwtm dwt
0
10
20
30
40
501
98
8
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Se
p-1
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Handy
Panamax
Aframaxes
Suezmaxes
VLCCs
m dwt
1988-2002, 15 years – inv $109 bn, yearly average $7.2 bn Yrl av $20 bn Yrl av $43 bn
Tanker fleet development
m dwtm dwt numbernumber
Increase 2010-2013Increase 2010-201310,000 - 59,999 dwt : 10%10,000 - 59,999 dwt : 10%60,000 - 79,999 dwt : 20%60,000 - 79,999 dwt : 20%80,000 - 119,999 dwt : 14%80,000 - 119,999 dwt : 14%120,000 - 199,999 dwt : 40%120,000 - 199,999 dwt : 40%+200,000 dwt : 30%+200,000 dwt : 30%Total 10,000 dwt + : 23%Total 10,000 dwt + : 23%
0
112
224
336
448
5601
99
2
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
0
1,280
2,560
3,840
5,120
6,400
dwt number
Assumed slippage of deliveries in 2010 which are moved to 2012
Sales for decommissioning and conversion of tankers and combos
Source: Various /INTERTANKO
m dwtm dwt
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Conversions
Combos
U/VLCCs
Below 200,000 dwt 9 ms
Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-outTankers > 10,000 dwt
m dwtm dwt
Assumed balanced market end 2008Deliveries and orderbook based on Clarkson World Shipyard Monitor Assumed slippage of deliveries in 2010 which are moved to 2012
Fleet 3,837 408.6 m dwt 100% Orderbook 874 116.4 “ 28% of fleetNot DH 800 28.6 ” 7% of fleet
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Max phase out
Deletions
Delveries
Surplus zerotrade grow th
Surplus 2.5%trade grow th
Surplus 4%trade grow th
year
Assumed market balance end 2008
Minus 2% growth in 2009 and the above scenarios later
Assume tankers due for phase out before 2010 are removed 2010-2012
Tanker Prices & shipyard capacity
Source: Clarkson
Tanker newbuilding prices
m $
20
45
70
95
120
145
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Sep
-10
300,000 150,000110,000 68,000
47,000
World shipyards capacity, deliveries and utilisation rates
m cgt
99%
78%
85%
74%
42%
13%
2%0
15
30
45
60
75
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Sched delivery
Delivered
Capacity
Utilisation rate
Source:Worldyards
Shorttermconsiderations
Industry OECD oil stocks
Days forward demand
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Yearly average stocks
Average per decade
Floating storageby segment
Source: EA Gibson
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140D
ec-
08
Jan
-09
Fe
b-0
9
Ma
r-0
9
Ap
r-0
9
Ma
y-0
9
Jun
-09
Jul-
09
Au
g-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Oct
-09
No
v-0
9
De
c-0
9
Jan
-10
Fe
b-1
0
Ma
r-1
0
Ap
r-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Jun
-10
Jul-
10
Au
g-1
0
Se
p-1
0
LR1/Panamax
LR2/Aframax
Suezmax
VLCCs
Number
VLCCs arriving AG next 30 days by hull 1 Dec 2006 until 1 Oct 2010
No
Source: Pareto Bassøe ASSource: Pareto Bassøe AS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
48 3 9
15
21
27
33
39
45
51 6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48 4
10
17
23
29
35
41
47 2 8
14
20
26
32
38
43
SH DH Linear (SH) Linear (DH)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
The future
Long term opportunities
• Population growth• Many Chinese Indians African still
do not drive cars• Moderate long term economic growth?• EIA long term 1% increase in oil demand• GHG reduction measures?
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
Liquids - +1.0% increase 2010-2035 (1.2% 1990-2010)
Natural Gas - +1.3% increase 2010-2035 (2.2% 1990-2010)
Coal - +1.8% increase 2010-2035 (1.9% 1990-2010)
Nuclear - +2.2% increase 2010-2035 (1.5% 1990-2010)
Renew ables - +2.6% increase 2010-2035 (2.2% 1990-2010)
World marketed energy use by fuel type - EIA 2010 long term forecastThe indices are based on EIA data
Base on EIA data
quadrillion Btuquadrillion Btu
Oslo Opera tunnel
The tanker is market facing
• Increasing fleet 2010-2012• Abating demand 2011?• Russian oil moving eastward• Continued high levels of global oil stocks and
expectations that demand growth will ease in coming months is weighing on prices.
• Weakening relationship GDP growth and oil demand / expansion services relative to manufacturing
Conclusion
