Annual Global th Cowen and Company 6 …...1 Cowen and Company 6 th Annual Global Transportation...
Transcript of Annual Global th Cowen and Company 6 …...1 Cowen and Company 6 th Annual Global Transportation...
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Cowen and Company 6th Annual Global Transportation Conference
Rob Knight, CFO – June 11, 2013
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Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Corporation’s expectations with respect to general economic conditions and business growth; its ability to provide safe, efficient and reliable customer service and increase customer value and shareholder returns. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2012, which was filed with the SEC on February 8, 2013. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC). Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.
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Portland
Los Angeles
Calexico
Seattle
Brownsville
Houston New Orleans
Twin Cities
Nogales El Paso
Duluth
Oakland Omaha
Denver Salt Lake City
Kansas City
Chicago
Memphis
St. Louis
Fastest Growing States
Ports
Borders & Interchange
C
To/From Asia
Portla
Oaklala
To/From Asia
To Europe, South America
and Africa
Industrial 16%
Agricultural 19%
Chemicals 15%
asosEagle Pass Laredo
Dallas
Eastport
a
Industririiiiialallllll 16%
Agricuuuuuuultltltltltlturuuuuuuu al19%
ChChChChChemeemememeemiccicicicalaallaaalss15%
Intermodal 20%
Coal 20%
Autos 9%
Industrial 18%
Agricultural 17%
Chemicals 16%
Freight Revenue $19.7B in 2012
• Diverse Business Mix • Fastest Growing States • Broad Port Access • Interchange Traffic &
Border Crossings
The Strength of a Unique Franchise
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UP - Transportation Supply Chain
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2004* 2012 2004* 2012
Successful Track Record 2004 to 2012
Operating Ratio 87.5%
67.8%
#1 – Industry Improvement
2004* 2012
EPS
$1.42
$8.27
ROIC
5.3%
14.0%
+25% CAGR
* 2004 adjusted for asbestos charge of $247.4 million.
-19.7 points
+8.7 points
7 Day Volume @ 184K
7 Day Volume @ 176K
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First Quarter 2013 Record Results
Positives • First Quarter Records
– Operating Revenue – Operating Income – Operating Ratio – Earnings – Customer Satisfaction
• Franchise Diversity • Network Efficiency
Challenges • Coal & Grain Volumes
2011 2012 2013
74.7
70.5 69.1
Operating Ratio (%) First Quarter
(1.4) pts
2011 2012 2013
$1.29
$1.79 $2.03 1st Qtr Record
+13%
Earnings Per Share First Quarter
1st Qtr Record
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2013 Volume Drivers
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
7-Day Monthly Carloadings (000s)
2006 @192
2010 @172
January December
2011 @176.5
2009 @152
Coal
Intermodal
YTD 2013 Volume Growth* (vs YTD 2012)
al
( )
Ag
TOTAL
Flat
+2%
-9%
-11%
+2%
-1%
+12%
Automotive
Chemicals
Industrial Products
2012 @ 176
*Through June 2, 2013
2013* down 1% YTD
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Coal Trends
Natural Gas Prices (NYMEX)
Electricity Generation*
Southern Powder River Basin
74%
Other 13%
Volume Impact (Weekly Carloadings)
1Q 4Q 27,000
31,000
35,000
39,000
43,000
47,000
2011
2012
2Q 3Q
• 2013 Contract Loss • Natural Gas Prices • Inventory Levels • Easing y-o-y Comparisons
2013*
*Through June 1, 2013
50% 50% 48% 48% 47%
38% 39%
17% 20% 19% 21% 20%
27% 25%
2007 2009 2011 2013
% from coal % from natural gas
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$2.71 $2.30
$2.49
$2.96 $2.92
$3.69 $3.35
$3.77 $4.07
2013 2012
*U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
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Global Demand for Energy Diverse Opportunities for UP, over $6 Billion in 2012
Energy Sources • Coal • Ethanol • Shale Oil • Wind • LPG Related Markets • Frac Sand • Pipe • Other Materials 1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Coal Ethanol Shale
Changing Mix of Energy-Related Carloads (UP Volume)
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Permian Basin
Marcellus
Eagle Ford
Niobrara
Bakken
Canadian Crude
Current UP Origins Current UP Destinations Connecting Railroad Origins
Utica
Barnett
$100 Brent
$100 Brent
$100 Brent
$100 LLS
$80
$82
$88
$89
Union Pacific Crude-by-Rail
Total Production BPD MM
2012 2016 Est
Bakken Permian 2.3 3.5 Niobrara
Cushing $92
TOTAL U.S. Crude Oil (March 2013)
BPD MM
Consumption* 14.7 Imports 7.5 Production 7.1
Crude prices as of 5/31/13 Sources: Plains Posting, Argus Research, Platts, North Dakota Pipeline Authority *Refinery & Blender Net Inputs
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• Investment in Rail – $1+ Billion in rail terminals – 20,000+ new tank cars in service
(additional 30,000 on backorder)
• Rail Advantages – Market flexibility – Faster transit time – Faster permitting and
construction – Scalable with lower capital cost
Shale Energy and Rail Sustainability
• Shale production will continue to exceed pipeline capacity
• UP Crude ~ 345k bpd in 2QTD
FY11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13
36.7
22.0
33.7 40.5 41.3
45.6
Crude Oil Carloads (000s) +107%
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UP Positioned for Mexico Growth Opportunities Strong Investments – Foreign and Domestic
Ferromex (FXE) KCSM Ferrosur (FSRR)
UP Interchange Points
New Industrial Investment
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
708 764 776 743
600
750 817
857
Volume Growth (Carloads in Thousands)
+5%
Ports
2012 Business Mix (In Carloads)
Agricultural 14%
Autos 45%
Intermodal 24% Industrial
10%
Chemicals 6%
Coal 1%
+9%
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Mexico Foreign Direct Investment FDI Announcements
Sources: Banco de Mexico, Maquila Portal
2012 FDI Announcements > $500M (With projected opening dates)
Nissan, Aguascalientes (4Q 2013) $2.6b
Ford, Hermosillo $1.3b
Audi, San Jose Chiapa (2016) $1.3b
Chrysler/Fiat, Saltillo $1.0b
Honda, Celaya (1Q 2014) $800m
Mazda, Salamanca (1Q 2014) $650m
Gerdau Corsa, Hidalgo $600m
Caterpillar, Monterrey $500m
Unilever (different locations in MX ) $500m
2012 Actual FDI = $13.4b USD
2013 Forecast FDI = $25.7b USD
2013 FDI Announcements > $450M Volkswagen, Puebla $700m
Honda, Celaya $470m
Stars indicate new vehicle production facilities.
Ferromex (FXE) KCSM Ferrosur (FSRR)
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Highway Conversions • Comprehensive Network
– ~10 Million Domestic Truck-Load Conversion Opportunity
– ~3 Million Truckload Opportunity Originating from Mexico
• Strong Value Proposition – Competitive Service at an
Affordable Price – Environmental Friendliness
• Truck’s Traditional Advantage is Eroding – Regulations & Rising Costs – Highway Congestion &
Infrastructure
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13
6%
3%
1%
4%
Flat
-3%
3%
1%
Flat
8%
Volume Growth (Qtr-over-Qtr Volume Growth)
International Domestic
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Rail – The ”Green” Alternative
•Each train can take up to 300 trucks off highways
• Three times cleaner than trucks on a ton-mile basis – Conversion of 10% long-haul
truck freight would eliminate 12 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions annually
• Energy Consumption – Four times more fuel efficient
than trucks
– Can haul one ton of freight 480 miles on one gallon of fuel
Source: EPA, AAR
Transportation Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Freight RRs 9%
Freight RRs 43%
Other Freight
26%
Trucking 31%
Intercity Freight Transportation (Based on Ton Miles)
Trucking 74%
Other Freight
17%
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0
5
10
15
20
2009 2010 2011 2012 2017E
International Intermodal Trends
Source: PIERS, HIS, Drewry
Actual Industry Forecasts
• Industry growth forecasts range from 4-6% CAGR • West Coast Share of Transpacific Imports has averaged ~70% for past 4 yrs
West Coast Share 70.5% 70.7% 70.1% 69.2% 67-70%
Previous Peak (2007)
U.S. Transpacific Import Volume (TEUs in Millions)
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Pricing Opportunity Strong Fundamentals Continue
2014 $100
2016 $100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1Q13
6% 6%
4.5% 5% 4.5% 4.5% 4%
Core Pricing Gains
2022222 14$100
20202202 16$100
Contracts > 1 Year
40% Contracts < 1 Year
30%
Tariffs 30%
Balanced Revenue Portfolio
• Value is the Key to Future Price Improvement
• New Business Supports Margin Improvement
• Balanced Portfolio Provides Flexibility for Repricing as Value Grows
• Remaining Legacy Portfolio
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2017
79.3 77.4
76.1
70.6 70.7
67.8 190
180
152
172 176.5 176
Raising the Bar – “Sub 65” Operating Ratio
Operating Ratio (Percent)
Sub-65
Now Targeting Sub 65% FY Operating
Ratio by 2017
Achieve high end of 2010
guidance sooner
than 2015
2010 Guidance: 65% - 67% FY Operating Ratio by 2015
7-Day Volume (000s)
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Delivering Value to Shareholders
Cumulative Share Repurchases ($ In Billions)
Future Allocation
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E
$3.1 $2.5 $2.5
$3.2 $3.7 ~$3.6
Returns & Investments (Capital in Billions)
10.2%
14.0%
ROIC*
Declared Dividends Per Share
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
$0.745 $0.98 $1.08
$1.31
$1.93
$2.49 +3x
Cumulative Share Repurchases ($ In Billions)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1Q'13
$1.5 $1.5
$2.8
$4.2
$5.7 $6.1
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2013 Outlook Second Quarter • Flat Volumes
Full Year • Continued Core Pricing
Gains & Network Efficiencies
• Assuming Economy Cooperates
– Positive Volume Growth – Record Operating Ratio &
Earnings
• Greater Shareholder Returns
UP – A Promising Future
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Question & Answer Session