Annual Global th Cowen and Company 6 …...1 Cowen and Company 6 th Annual Global Transportation...

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1 Cowen and Company 6 th Annual Global Transportation Conference Rob Knight, CFO June 11, 2013 2 Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Corporation’s expectations with respect to general economic conditions and business growth; its ability to provide safe, efficient and reliable customer service and increase customer value and shareholder returns. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward- looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2012, which was filed with the SEC on February 8, 2013. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC). Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.

Transcript of Annual Global th Cowen and Company 6 …...1 Cowen and Company 6 th Annual Global Transportation...

Page 1: Annual Global th Cowen and Company 6 …...1 Cowen and Company 6 th Annual Global Transportation Conference Rob Knight, CFO – June 11, 2013 2 Cautionary Information This presentation

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Cowen and Company 6th Annual Global Transportation Conference

Rob Knight, CFO – June 11, 2013

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Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Corporation’s expectations with respect to general economic conditions and business growth; its ability to provide safe, efficient and reliable customer service and increase customer value and shareholder returns. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2012, which was filed with the SEC on February 8, 2013. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC). Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.

Page 2: Annual Global th Cowen and Company 6 …...1 Cowen and Company 6 th Annual Global Transportation Conference Rob Knight, CFO – June 11, 2013 2 Cautionary Information This presentation

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Portland

Los Angeles

Calexico

Seattle

Brownsville

Houston New Orleans

Twin Cities

Nogales El Paso

Duluth

Oakland Omaha

Denver Salt Lake City

Kansas City

Chicago

Memphis

St. Louis

Fastest Growing States

Ports

Borders & Interchange

C

To/From Asia

Portla

Oaklala

To/From Asia

To Europe, South America

and Africa

Industrial 16%

Agricultural 19%

Chemicals 15%

asosEagle Pass Laredo

Dallas

Eastport

a

Industririiiiialallllll 16%

Agricuuuuuuultltltltltlturuuuuuuu al19%

ChChChChChemeemememeemiccicicicalaallaaalss15%

Intermodal 20%

Coal 20%

Autos 9%

Industrial 18%

Agricultural 17%

Chemicals 16%

Freight Revenue $19.7B in 2012

• Diverse Business Mix • Fastest Growing States • Broad Port Access • Interchange Traffic &

Border Crossings

The Strength of a Unique Franchise

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UP - Transportation Supply Chain

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2004* 2012 2004* 2012

Successful Track Record 2004 to 2012

Operating Ratio 87.5%

67.8%

#1 – Industry Improvement

2004* 2012

EPS

$1.42

$8.27

ROIC

5.3%

14.0%

+25% CAGR

* 2004 adjusted for asbestos charge of $247.4 million.

-19.7 points

+8.7 points

7 Day Volume @ 184K

7 Day Volume @ 176K

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First Quarter 2013 Record Results

Positives • First Quarter Records

– Operating Revenue – Operating Income – Operating Ratio – Earnings – Customer Satisfaction

• Franchise Diversity • Network Efficiency

Challenges • Coal & Grain Volumes

2011 2012 2013

74.7

70.5 69.1

Operating Ratio (%) First Quarter

(1.4) pts

2011 2012 2013

$1.29

$1.79 $2.03 1st Qtr Record

+13%

Earnings Per Share First Quarter

1st Qtr Record

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2013 Volume Drivers

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

7-Day Monthly Carloadings (000s)

2006 @192

2010 @172

January December

2011 @176.5

2009 @152

Coal

Intermodal

YTD 2013 Volume Growth* (vs YTD 2012)

al

( )

Ag

TOTAL

Flat

+2%

-9%

-11%

+2%

-1%

+12%

Automotive

Chemicals

Industrial Products

2012 @ 176

*Through June 2, 2013

2013* down 1% YTD

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Coal Trends

Natural Gas Prices (NYMEX)

Electricity Generation*

Southern Powder River Basin

74%

Other 13%

Volume Impact (Weekly Carloadings)

1Q 4Q 27,000

31,000

35,000

39,000

43,000

47,000

2011

2012

2Q 3Q

• 2013 Contract Loss • Natural Gas Prices • Inventory Levels • Easing y-o-y Comparisons

2013*

*Through June 1, 2013

50% 50% 48% 48% 47%

38% 39%

17% 20% 19% 21% 20%

27% 25%

2007 2009 2011 2013

% from coal % from natural gas

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

$2.71 $2.30

$2.49

$2.96 $2.92

$3.69 $3.35

$3.77 $4.07

2013 2012

*U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

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Global Demand for Energy Diverse Opportunities for UP, over $6 Billion in 2012

Energy Sources • Coal • Ethanol • Shale Oil • Wind • LPG Related Markets • Frac Sand • Pipe • Other Materials 1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Coal Ethanol Shale

Changing Mix of Energy-Related Carloads (UP Volume)

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Permian Basin

Marcellus

Eagle Ford

Niobrara

Bakken

Canadian Crude

Current UP Origins Current UP Destinations Connecting Railroad Origins

Utica

Barnett

$100 Brent

$100 Brent

$100 Brent

$100 LLS

$80

$82

$88

$89

Union Pacific Crude-by-Rail

Total Production BPD MM

2012 2016 Est

Bakken Permian 2.3 3.5 Niobrara

Cushing $92

TOTAL U.S. Crude Oil (March 2013)

BPD MM

Consumption* 14.7 Imports 7.5 Production 7.1

Crude prices as of 5/31/13 Sources: Plains Posting, Argus Research, Platts, North Dakota Pipeline Authority *Refinery & Blender Net Inputs

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• Investment in Rail – $1+ Billion in rail terminals – 20,000+ new tank cars in service

(additional 30,000 on backorder)

• Rail Advantages – Market flexibility – Faster transit time – Faster permitting and

construction – Scalable with lower capital cost

Shale Energy and Rail Sustainability

• Shale production will continue to exceed pipeline capacity

• UP Crude ~ 345k bpd in 2QTD

FY11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13

36.7

22.0

33.7 40.5 41.3

45.6

Crude Oil Carloads (000s) +107%

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UP Positioned for Mexico Growth Opportunities Strong Investments – Foreign and Domestic

Ferromex (FXE) KCSM Ferrosur (FSRR)

UP Interchange Points

New Industrial Investment

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

708 764 776 743

600

750 817

857

Volume Growth (Carloads in Thousands)

+5%

Ports

2012 Business Mix (In Carloads)

Agricultural 14%

Autos 45%

Intermodal 24% Industrial

10%

Chemicals 6%

Coal 1%

+9%

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Mexico Foreign Direct Investment FDI Announcements

Sources: Banco de Mexico, Maquila Portal

2012 FDI Announcements > $500M (With projected opening dates)

Nissan, Aguascalientes (4Q 2013) $2.6b

Ford, Hermosillo $1.3b

Audi, San Jose Chiapa (2016) $1.3b

Chrysler/Fiat, Saltillo $1.0b

Honda, Celaya (1Q 2014) $800m

Mazda, Salamanca (1Q 2014) $650m

Gerdau Corsa, Hidalgo $600m

Caterpillar, Monterrey $500m

Unilever (different locations in MX ) $500m

2012 Actual FDI = $13.4b USD

2013 Forecast FDI = $25.7b USD

2013 FDI Announcements > $450M Volkswagen, Puebla $700m

Honda, Celaya $470m

Stars indicate new vehicle production facilities.

Ferromex (FXE) KCSM Ferrosur (FSRR)

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Highway Conversions • Comprehensive Network

– ~10 Million Domestic Truck-Load Conversion Opportunity

– ~3 Million Truckload Opportunity Originating from Mexico

• Strong Value Proposition – Competitive Service at an

Affordable Price – Environmental Friendliness

• Truck’s Traditional Advantage is Eroding – Regulations & Rising Costs – Highway Congestion &

Infrastructure

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13

6%

3%

1%

4%

Flat

-3%

3%

1%

Flat

8%

Volume Growth (Qtr-over-Qtr Volume Growth)

International Domestic

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Rail – The ”Green” Alternative

•Each train can take up to 300 trucks off highways

• Three times cleaner than trucks on a ton-mile basis – Conversion of 10% long-haul

truck freight would eliminate 12 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions annually

• Energy Consumption – Four times more fuel efficient

than trucks

– Can haul one ton of freight 480 miles on one gallon of fuel

Source: EPA, AAR

Transportation Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Freight RRs 9%

Freight RRs 43%

Other Freight

26%

Trucking 31%

Intercity Freight Transportation (Based on Ton Miles)

Trucking 74%

Other Freight

17%

16

0

5

10

15

20

2009 2010 2011 2012 2017E

International Intermodal Trends

Source: PIERS, HIS, Drewry

Actual Industry Forecasts

• Industry growth forecasts range from 4-6% CAGR • West Coast Share of Transpacific Imports has averaged ~70% for past 4 yrs

West Coast Share 70.5% 70.7% 70.1% 69.2% 67-70%

Previous Peak (2007)

U.S. Transpacific Import Volume (TEUs in Millions)

Page 9: Annual Global th Cowen and Company 6 …...1 Cowen and Company 6 th Annual Global Transportation Conference Rob Knight, CFO – June 11, 2013 2 Cautionary Information This presentation

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Pricing Opportunity Strong Fundamentals Continue

2014 $100

2016 $100

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1Q13

6% 6%

4.5% 5% 4.5% 4.5% 4%

Core Pricing Gains

2022222 14$100

20202202 16$100

Contracts > 1 Year

40% Contracts < 1 Year

30%

Tariffs 30%

Balanced Revenue Portfolio

• Value is the Key to Future Price Improvement

• New Business Supports Margin Improvement

• Balanced Portfolio Provides Flexibility for Repricing as Value Grows

• Remaining Legacy Portfolio

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2017

79.3 77.4

76.1

70.6 70.7

67.8 190

180

152

172 176.5 176

Raising the Bar – “Sub 65” Operating Ratio

Operating Ratio (Percent)

Sub-65

Now Targeting Sub 65% FY Operating

Ratio by 2017

Achieve high end of 2010

guidance sooner

than 2015

2010 Guidance: 65% - 67% FY Operating Ratio by 2015

7-Day Volume (000s)

Page 10: Annual Global th Cowen and Company 6 …...1 Cowen and Company 6 th Annual Global Transportation Conference Rob Knight, CFO – June 11, 2013 2 Cautionary Information This presentation

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Delivering Value to Shareholders

Cumulative Share Repurchases ($ In Billions)

Future Allocation

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E

$3.1 $2.5 $2.5

$3.2 $3.7 ~$3.6

Returns & Investments (Capital in Billions)

10.2%

14.0%

ROIC*

Declared Dividends Per Share

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

$0.745 $0.98 $1.08

$1.31

$1.93

$2.49 +3x

Cumulative Share Repurchases ($ In Billions)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1Q'13

$1.5 $1.5

$2.8

$4.2

$5.7 $6.1

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2013 Outlook Second Quarter • Flat Volumes

Full Year • Continued Core Pricing

Gains & Network Efficiencies

• Assuming Economy Cooperates

– Positive Volume Growth – Record Operating Ratio &

Earnings

• Greater Shareholder Returns

UP – A Promising Future

Page 11: Annual Global th Cowen and Company 6 …...1 Cowen and Company 6 th Annual Global Transportation Conference Rob Knight, CFO – June 11, 2013 2 Cautionary Information This presentation

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Question & Answer Session