Andy Gouldson, Niall Kerr University of Leeds Corrado Topi, Ellie Dawkins, Johan Kuylenstierna...
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Transcript of Andy Gouldson, Niall Kerr University of Leeds Corrado Topi, Ellie Dawkins, Johan Kuylenstierna...
Andy Gouldson, Niall Kerr University of Leeds
Corrado Topi, Ellie Dawkins, Johan KuylenstiernaUniversity of York
Climate Change and Economics
The Stern Review changed the political landscape on climate change by claiming that:
• The cost of avoiding dangerous climate change (1-2% of GDP).
Is much less than
• The costs of dangerous climate change (5-20% of GDP).
The Key Questions
Can we provide an accessible and locally specific evidence base on the low carbon economy?
Does the evidence base suggest that there is a business case for major scale investments?
Does it suggest that there is also a wider social and economic case?
If so, how can we secure, structure, deliver major scale investments in the low carbon economy in the Humber?
The Approach
A review of thousands of energy efficient and low carbon options – only considers energy efficiency and small scale renewables.
A realistic assessment of the costs and the energy (and hence cost and carbon) savings associated with each measure.
A review of the scope for the deployment of these measures in households, commerce, transport and industry at the local level.
Identification of the most cost and carbon effective options for different sectors.
Mapping the capacity of the low carbon goods and services sector to absorb investment and create employment.
All based on conservative assessments and realistic projections.
Headline Findings for the Birmingham and the Wider Urban Area
£5.1 billion (c10% of GDP) left the local economy in 2012 through payment of the energy bill. This figure is forecast to grow to £6.6 billion by 2022.
There is a commercially attractive opportunity to bring £3.6 billion of investment into the local economy to exploit cost effective low carbon and energy efficient options.
Such investments would pay for themselves in 3.8 years, cutting energy bills by £954 million a year.
They would also create 1,650 jobs and an extra £100 million in wider GVA every year.
The Carbon Impact
+7%
7%
22%
32%36%38%
Cost Neutral Investments – Domestic
• £1.5 billion of investment opportunities
• Exploiting these would generate savings of £507 million a year
• Payback period 3 years
• Would create 1200 jobs
• Carbon savings equivalent to 3.9% of emissions
Top 10 Measures - Domestic
Cost Effective
Mini wind turbines (5kW) with FIT Reduced heating for washing machines Electronic products ICT products Integrated digital TVs Reduced standby consumption Reduce household heating by 1 C A++ rated cold appliances A rated ovens Efficient lighting
Carbon Effective
Reduce household heating by 1 C Solid wall insulation Pre-76 cavity wall insulation Electronic products Ground Source Heat Pump with RHI Air source heat pumps ICT products Efficient lighting Solar water heating with RHI Glazing – single to new
Cost effective – Cost neutral – Realistic potential
Cost Neutral Investments – Commercial
• £586 million of investment opportunities
• Exploiting these would generate savings of £292 million a year
• Payback period 2 years
• Would create 414 jobs
• Carbon savings equivalent to 4.7% of emissions
Top 10 Measures - Commercial
Cost Effective Vending machines - energy
management Photocopier - energy management Computers - energy management Monitors - energy management Printers - energy management Most energy efficient monitor PC only Lights - Turn off lights for an extra hour Lights - Sunrise-Sunset timers Lights – basic timer More efficient air conditioning
Carbon Effective Most energy efficient boiler Programmable thermostats Biomass boilers with RHI Air source heat pumps Ground Source Heat Pumps with RHI Heating – reducing room
temperature Most energy efficient double glazing Heating - Optimising start times Lights - Basic timer Most energy efficient air
conditioning
Cost effective – Cost neutral – Realistic potential
Cost Neutral Investments – Industrial
• £1.1 billion of investment opportunities
• Exploiting these would generate savings of £118 million a year
• Payback period 9.3 years
• Would create 222 jobs
• Carbon savings equivalent to 4.2% of emissions
Top 10 Measures - Industrial
Cost Effective
Burners Refrigeration and air-conditioning Lighting Compressed air Design Fabrication and machining Low temperature heating New food and drink plant Operation and maintenance Drying and separation
Carbon Effective
Renewable heat Others High temperature heating Process improvement Drying and separation Motors and drives Controls Heat recovery Energy management Operation and maintenance
Cost effective – Cost neutral – Realistic potential
Cost Neutral Investments – Transport (road)
• £2 billion of investment opportunities
• Exploiting these would generate savings of £228 million a year
• Payback period 6.51 years
• Would create jobs – number tbc
• Carbon savings equivalent to 2.1% of emissions
Top 10 Measures - Transport
Cost Effective
tbc
Carbon Effective
tbc
Cost effective – Cost neutral – Realistic potential
BES
Green Deal Paymentscollected via energy bill
Green Deal Payments
Generator meter (if PV is fitted)
Benefits
Energy Companies
Surveying
Marketing
Installing
Maintaining
DeliveryPartner
Green DealAgreement
Feed in Tariff
Originating, Managing
Collecting and allocating
Public Borrowing
ECO
Private Finance
A Business Model
Conclusions
There are financially attractive ways of…
• stimulating the economy, • reducing vulnerability, • protecting competitiveness, • creating employment, • improving public health
Whilst at the same time slashing your carbon footprint.