ANDRITZ HYDRO Capital Market Days 2011, Austria · of hydropower Demands of the future Segmentation...
Transcript of ANDRITZ HYDRO Capital Market Days 2011, Austria · of hydropower Demands of the future Segmentation...
Capital Market Days 2011, AustriaANDRITZ HYDRO
2 ANDRITZ HYDRO – Wolfgang Semper – Capital Market Days 2011, Austria
Contents
ANDRITZ HYDROand benefitsof hydropower
Demandsof the future
Segmentation of the global hydropower market
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Francis, 1849, James B. Francis, USA Pelton, 1879, Lester Pelton, USA Kaplan, 1913, Victor Kaplan, Austria Bulb, 1970 Straflomatrix, 1995 Tidal current turbine, 2003
Power generation from waterTurbine types
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High head (150-2,000 m), low flow Typical turbine type: Pelton, Francis,
pump turbine Storage, pumped storage Peak power generation, regulation, and
balance energy Example: Kops II, Austria, 3 x 180 MW, 826 m
Medium head (15-150 m), medium flow Typical turbine type: Francis, Kaplan Run-of-river, storage Base-load supply, short- and mid-term balancing Example: Guri II, Venezuela, 5 x 770 MW, 144 m
Low head (< 15 m), medium flow Typical turbine type: Kaplan, Bulb Run-of-river, diversion plant Base-load supply Example: Freudenau, Austria, 6 x 36 MW, 10 m
Power generation from waterTypes of power plants
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Power generation from waterHighest operational efficiency
Example: TasmaniaHouseholds equivalent:4,000 kWh for Austria (Verbund AHP)
Plant Type Example
Installed Capacity
(MW)
Full load operating hours equivalents /
year
Produced Energy (GWh)
Hauseholds equivalent * Remarks
High Head / Pumped Storage Limberg II, Austria 480 500-1000 - - balancing, no net generationHigh Head / Storage Kaprun-Hauptstufe, Austria 240 990 237 59 000 Medium Head / Storage Hieflau, Austria 63 4 500 284 71 000 Low Head / Run-of-River Leoben, Austria 10 5 000 50 12 500 Low Head / Run-of-River Ybbs-Persenbeug; Austria 236 5 600 1 336 334 000
Wind global average equivalent (2008) 236 1 814 428 107 000 back-up necessarySolar PV global average equivalent (2008) 236 796 188 47 000 back-up necessary
Sources: Verbund – AHP; IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010; IEA – Projected Costs of Generating Electricity 2010
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Typical energy costs include investment costs, operation and maintenance costs, are levelized over respective lifetime, and exclude all subsidies and policy incentives.
HydropowerThe most cost-efficient renewable energy source
Status of renewable energy technologies: characteristics and costs
Source: REN21 – Renewables 2011 Global Status Report
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ANDRITZ HYDROFull product offering from water to wire
1 Gates2 Penstocks3 Inlet valve4 Turbine5 Generator6 Automation, control, protection7 Medium-voltage switchgear8 Power transformer9 High-voltage switchgear
10 Transmission line
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Installed turbine capacity and ANDRITZ HYDRO fleet310 GW out of 937 GW
ANDRITZ HYDRO is either the Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) or has refurbished around one-third of worldwide installed water turbine capacity, i.e. 310 GW out of 937 GW.
Source: World Atlas Hydro Power and Dams 2011; ANDRITZ references; figures without pumped storageEurope includes Turkey, Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan,Africa includes Near and Middle East
Total 324 GW
58 GW 18%
Total 44 GW16 GW 35%
Total 258 GW
114 GW44%
Total 170 GW
69 GW41%
Total 141 GW
49 GW 35%
Share ofANDRITZHYDRO
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ANDRITZ HYDRO is either the Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) or has refurbished 25-30% of worldwide installed turbine capacities of pumped storage plants.
45% of Europe’s pump turbine capacities are related to ANDRITZ HYDRO.
Pumped storageInstalled turbine capacity and ANDRITZ HYDRO fleet
Figures include pump turbines and turbines in pumped storage plants (pumps/pump capacities not considered)
Worldwide:Total 110-140 GW
33 GW 25-30%
Europe:Total 45 GW
20 GW 44%
Share ofANDRITZHYDRO
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1920 1940 1960 1980 20202000
static
dynamic
Economical, domestic source of energy
Combination of irrigation, navigable rivers, etc.
Renewable, clean energy
Pumped storagefor long time storage
Fast controlled ability, Hydro = stabilizing the grid
Hydro as wind- and solar-compensator (new boom for pumped storage)
Hydro = smart grid player
Benefits of hydropowerThe role of hydropower has changed over time
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Contents
ANDRITZ HYDROand benefitsof hydropower
Demandsof the future
Segmentation of the global hydropower market
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Current segmentation of the global hydropower market:~ 7.5 bn. EUR business for electromechanical equipment
Source: ANDRITZ estimate
New technologies (ocean, matrix, etc.): ~ 0.3 bn. EUR (200-300 MW/a)Pumped storage: ~ 0.7 bn. EUR (4-6 GW/a)
Rehabilitation, modernization, upgrade: ~ 1.0 bn. EUR (~ 10 GW/a)
Small/Compact Hydro (< 30 MW): ~ 0.5 bn. EUR (2-3 GW/a)
Large Hydro (> 30 MW): ~ 5.0 bn. EUR (30-40 GW/a)
~ 7.5 bn. EUR
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Large Hydro
New technologies (ocean, matrix, etc.): ~ 0.3 bn. EUR
Pumped storage: ~ 0.7 bn. EUR
Rehabilitation, modernization, upgrade: ~ 1.0 bn. EUR
Small Hydro (< 30 MW): ~ 0.5 bn. EUR
Large Hydro (> 30 MW): ~ 5.0 bn. EUR
~ 7.5 bn. EUR
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Large HydroThe backbone of renewable energies
Large Hydro (units > 30 MW) will remain the dominating segment within the hydropower market in the future
Most of the increase of hydropower occurs in non-OECD countries (Asia, especially in China and India, as well as South America)
Main focus on medium sized plants (100-500 MW)
Avg. number of installed turbines (> 30 MW): ~ 130-210/a
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010
Incremental renewables-based electricity generationby region in the new policies scenario, 2008-2035
Investment in renewables-based electricity generation by technology in the new policies scenario
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2010-2020 2021-2035$2
009
billi
on
Concentrated Solar Power
Solar Photovoltaic - buildings
Solar Photovoltaic - large scale
Geothermal
Wind - offshore
Wind - onshore
Biomass
Ocean
Hydro - small
Hydro - large
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Large HydroMinimum operational costs – high efficiency
Market drivers Increasing demand for electricity Renewable energy mix Avoidance of import dependency No fuel costs Predictable operating costs (independency
of fuel cost fluctuations)
Minimum operational costs
Benefits Long-term usage with unrivaled operating costs
Efficiency 90% – highest technical efficiency of all energy
sources Best capacity factor of all renewables
Investment decision triggered by payback period Typically 15-20 years (for complete
hydropower station)
Eurelectric/VGB levelised costs of electricity (at 5% discount rate)
0
50
100
150
200
250
Nuclear EPR
Coal Bk
Coal Br
Coal Bk USC w/CC(S)
Gas CCGT
Onshore wind
Offshore wind (C
lose)
Offshore wind (F
ar)
Hydro large (River)
Hydro Large (Pump)
Solar PV
Solar therm
al
US
D /
MW
h
Investment costs O&M Fuel costs Waste management Carbon costs
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Large HydroReferences
▼ Guri II, VenezuelaClient: EDELCAOutput: 5 x 770 MWDiameter: 7,300 mm
Mica, Canada ►Client: British Columbia Hydro & Power AuthorityOutput: 2 x 520 MWHead: 169.7
◄ Rio Madeira, BrazilClient: Energia Sustenável do Brasil
Santo AntonioOutput: 12 x 75.55 MWDiameter: 7,500 mm
JirauOutput: 8 x 76.55 MWDiameter: 7,500 mm
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Large HydroReferences
▲ Ruacana, NamibiaClient: NamPowerOutput: 240 MWnew Unit 4: 1 x 92 MW
Nam Theun II, Laos ►Client: Nam Theun Power Company (NTPC)Output: 1,070 MW
Boyabat, TurkeyClient: DOĞUŞ İNŞAAT VE TİCARET A.Ş.Output: 3 x 176 MWHead: 125.5 m
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Small Hydro
New technologies (ocean, matrix, etc.): ~ 0.3 bn. EUR
Pumped storage: ~ 0.7 bn. EUR
Rehabilitation, modernization, upgrade: ~ 1.0 bn. EUR
Small Hydro (< 30 MW): ~ 0.5 bn. EUR
Large Hydro (> 30 MW): ~ 5.0 bn. EUR
~ 7.5 bn. EUR
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Small HydroThe share of small units in the grid will continuously grow
Communities in urban areas Self supply/energy autarchy
Industry Utilities – for local/regional
grid supply Industry – self supply
Decentralized
Example Austria 480 MW from plants
with generationcapacities between 0.1 and 5 MW
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Small Hydro: ANDRITZ HYDRO is the world market leader in Small/Compact Hydro
Modular water to wire solutionsup to 30 MW per unit
Every week another two ANDRITZ HYDRO small/compact hydro units start energy
production somewhere around the globe
Clean and renewable energy
Low environmental impact
Low investment cost
Pre-assembly at workshop
Single source of supply
Modular design
Short installation and commissioning
Investment decision triggered by payback period: typically < 10 years(for complete hydropower station)
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Service and rehab
▲ Diagnosis
▲ Analysis
▲ Therapy
New technologies (ocean, matrix, etc.): ~ 0.3 bn. EUR
Pumped storage: ~ 0.7 bn. EUR
Rehabilitation, modernization, upgrade: ~ 1.0 bn. EUR
Small Hydro (< 30 MW): ~ 0.5 bn. EUR
~ 7.5 bn. EUR
Large Hydro (> 30 MW): ~ 5.0 bn. EUR
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Service and rehabFavorable potential for rehabilitation
Source: Alstom; Platts – UDI
30% of plants worldwide older than 40 years: ~ 37% of plants in Europe ~ 43% of plants in North America
Today’s “10 GW rehab rate” is notsufficient to stop aging of existing fleet!
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Service and rehabVarious benefits
Enhanced plant performance and higher rate of return Increased plant availability, reliability, plant lifetime,
and safety Reduced Operation & Maintenance (O&M) costs;
risk of standstills reduced Reduced environmental impact Remote control ability
Costs No additional buildings needed; quick implementation Usually no environmental impact assessment
requested/no or minor interference with nature
Additional renewable energy For each 30 GW upgraded per year and for each 5%
of increase of performance, rehabilitation programs willcreate 1,500 MW of renewable and predictable energy
Investment decision triggered by payback period Typically < 10 years (for complete hydropower station)
Rel
ativ
e ef
ficie
ncy
[%]
Turbine output [MW]
- after uprating- before uprating
Increased output
Better efficiencyin partial load
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Service and rehabANDRITZ HYDRO upgrading with seven month payback period
ProjectInfiernillo, Mexico, 2006-2010
CustomerComisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE)
ScopeModernization and upgrading of four Francis turbines
ResultCapacity increase by 28% additional 180 MW in total
Payback period7 months!
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Service and rehabFurther references
Ambuklao, PhilippinesClient: National Power Corporation (NPC)Output: 75 105 MW
Kindaruma, KenyaClient: KenGenOutput: 40 72 MW
▼ Bajina Basta, SerbiaClient: Drin So Limske He Bajina Basta (DLBB)Output: 370 420 MW
Grand Coulee, USA ►Client: Bureau of ReclamationOutput: 3 x 130 MW
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Pumped storage
▲ Kops II, Austria
Upper pool
Lower poolPump turbine
Motor generator
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Pumped storageHow to make the energy mix green?
Wind and solar power have tremendously increased their rolesin the European power generation mix; trend continuously growing
Europe has the highest installed capacities for solar and wind:~ 86 GW installed capacity wind (mainly in Germany, Spain,Netherlands, Denmark) and ~ 27 GW installed capacity solar(mainly in Germany and Czech Republic)
Typical characteristics of wind and solar:Intermitting, poor predictability and reliability, not controllable
Backup for base load and peaks “Green battery”Pumped storage (2011: 45 GW)
Source: Energinet.dk
Load profileRES generation
Time
Pow
er
Example Energinet.dk
MW
week weekweek
MW
week weekweek
Wind capacity in Denmark 2008: 3,100 MW 2025: 6,500 MWRest is mainly gas, coal,and import/export
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Pumped storageDevelopment of pumped storage in the Alps since 2000
Germany
Italy
Feldsee 70 MW
Nestil 142 MW Kops 540 MW
Limberg II 480 MWHintermuhr 75 MW
Avce 180 MW
Nant de Drance 600 MW
Limmern 1000 MW
Kühtai II 200 MW
Grimsel 3 400 MW Sambuco 960 MW
Verzasca 300 MW
Kozjak 400 MW
Reisseck II 420 MW
Tauernmoos 130 MW
Cavaglia II 105 MW
Somplago 115 MW
Val d‘Ambra II 70 MW
Limberg III 480 MW
Atdorf 1400 MW
implemented
planned
Kaunertal 220 MW
Germany
Italy
Feldsee 70 MW
Nestil 142 MW Kops 540 MW
Limberg II 480 MWHintermuhr 75 MW
Avce 180 MW
Nant de Drance 600 MW
Limmern 1000 MW
Kühtai II 200 MW
Grimsel 3 400 MW Sambuco 960 MW
Verzasca 300 MW
Kozjak 400 MW
Reisseck II 420 MW
Tauernmoos 130 MW
Cavaglia II 105 MW
Somplago 115 MW
Val d‘Ambra II 70 MW
Limberg III 480 MW
Atdorf 1400 MW
implemented
planned
Kaunertal 220 MW
Selected pumped storage power plants in the Alpine Region
▲ Limberg II,Austria
Including ANDRITZ HYDRO supplies
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Pumped storageReferences
◄ Hongrin-Leman, SwitzerlandClient: Forces Motrices Hongrin Léman SA (FMHL)Output: 2 x 118.8 MWHead: 804.7 m
Bemposta II, Portugal ►Client: Energias de Portugal (EDP)Output: 193 MWHead: 65 m
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New technologies
New technologies (ocean, matrix, etc.): ~ 0.3 bn. EURPumped storage: ~ 0.7 bn. EUR
Rehabilitation, modernization, upgrade: ~ 1.0 bn. EUR
Small Hydro (< 30 MW): ~ 0.5 bn. EUR
~ 7.5 bn. EUR
Large Hydro (> 30 MW): ~ 5.0 bn. EUR
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New technologiesIntensive R&D . . .
Hydromatrix®
Utilization of existing structures or new buildings with very low heads
235 modules since 1987, thereof currently under implementation: Ashta, Albania: 90 units Lower St. Anthony Falls, USA:
16 units Austrian State Prize 2010 for the
Chievo project, Italy
ECOBulb™ Very compact, ecological and
economical bulb turbine without gear, lubricants, and voltage regulation
22 ECOBulb™ units supplied since 2003, e.g. for Stanley Adamson, Canada
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New technologies. . . for tapping the untapped resources
Tidal power plants Seawater-proof bulb turbines World’s largest tidal plant in Sihwa,
South Korea (10 x 26 MW); commis-sioning in 2011
Tidal stream power plants Distributed underwater installation
on the seabed HS300 (300 kW) – Hammerfest,
Norway: World’s first installation
synchronized to the grid Successfully in operation since
2004 (9,500 h, 98% availability) HS1000 (1 MW) – EMEC, Scotland:
Commissioning in October 2011
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Contents
ANDRITZ HYDROand benefitsof hydropower
Demandsof the future
Segmentation of the global hydropower market
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ANDRITZ HYDROPrepared for the demands of the future
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Nuclear
Thermal (gas,oil, coal, lignite)
Households
Industry
ANDRITZ HYDROPrepared for the demands of the future
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Nuclear
Thermal (gas,oil, coal, lignite)
Households
Industry
ANDRITZ HYDROPrepared for the demands of the future
Pumpedstorage(smart ready)
Storage(smart ready)
Small hydro(smart ready)
Run-of-river(smart ready)
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Nuclear
Households
Industry
ANDRITZ HYDROPrepared for the demands of the future
Pumpedstorage(smart ready)
Storage(smart ready)
Small hydro(smart ready)
Run-of-river(smart ready)
Large solar
Tidal
Tidal streams
Wave energy
Hydromatrix®
Thermal (gas,oil, coal, lignite)
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Nuclear
Households
Industry
ANDRITZ HYDROPrepared for the demands of the future
Pumpedstorage(smart ready)
Storage(smart ready)
Small hydro(smart ready)
Run-of-river(smart ready)
Large solar
Tidal
Tidal streams
Wave energy
Hydromatrix®
Small solar
e-mobility
Compact ocean pump(wind/solar)
Energy island(pump-wind)
Compact PSP (wind)
Transport
Thermal (gas,oil, coal, lignite)
µ-Hydro** Hydropower plants < 100 kW
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Nuclear
Households
Industry
ANDRITZ HYDROPrepared for the demands of the future
Pumpedstorage(smart ready)
Storage(smart ready)
Small hydro(smart ready)
Run-of-river(smart ready)
Large solar
Tidal
Tidal streams
Wave energy
Hydromatrix®
µ-Hydro
Small solar
e-mobility
Compact ocean pump(wind/solar)
Energy island(pump-wind)
Compact PSP (wind)
Transport
Thermal (gas,oil, coal, lignite)
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Certain statements contained in this presentation constitute ‛forward-looking statements.’ These statements, which contain the words ‛believe’, ‛intend’, ‛expect’ and words of similar meaning, reflect management’s beliefs and expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially.
As a result, readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such forward-looking statements. The company disclaims any obligation to publicly announce the result of any revisions to the forward-looking statements made herein, except where it would be required to do so under applicable law.
Disclaimer