Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006 NEEDS New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability SIXTH...
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Transcript of Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006 NEEDS New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability SIXTH...
Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006
NEEDSNEEDSNew Energy Externalities Developments for SustainabilityNew Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability
SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME [6.1]
[ Sustainable Energy Systems]
Policy Advisory GroupPolicy Advisory GroupFirst meeting – Rome, 7 April 2006First meeting – Rome, 7 April 2006
Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006
NEEDS: an Integrated Project of FP6
Duration: 48 months, starting September 2004 66 partners (15% are SMEs), representing Universities, Research
Institutions, Industry and NGOs from 27 Countries (19 EU members, 3 MED, 5 ‘Other’)
Leading partners: ISIS (IT) - CoordinatorDLR (DE) IER Stuttgart (DE)OME (FR)Uni Prague (CZ)CNR-IMAA (IT)PSI (CH)ECO (NO)
1118 person.months
Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006
Overall objective
To evaluate the full costs and To evaluate the full costs and benefits (i.e. direct + external) of benefits (i.e. direct + external) of
energy policiesenergy policies and of and of future future energy systemsenergy systems, both at the level , both at the level of individual countries and for the of individual countries and for the
enlarged EU as a wholeenlarged EU as a whole
Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006
Policy relevanceof external cost accounting
• Supply side policies (infrastructure, other products and services)– Extended accounting framework for CBA– Comparison between alternative investment
options (differential values)
• Demand side policies (regulation, pricing and taxation)– Mitigation/abatement– Internalisation (absolute values)
Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006
Examples of input to EU policies
• Directive on non-hazardous waste incineration
• Large Combustion Plant Directive• EU strategy to combat acidification• National Air Quality Strategy• Emission Ceilings Directive• Infrastructure charging (Eurovignette)• Etc.
Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006
Objectives and main focus
Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of energy technologies analysis of new energy technologies options for which the current
LCA knowledge is insufficient
Monetary valuation of externalities associated to energy production, transport, conversion and use, targeting major innovation in terms of:
methods impacts so far insufficiently addressed the availability and reliability of quantitative evidence
Development of a consistent and robust analytical platform allowing to integrate the full range of information and data on LCA and external costs into a Pan-European modelling framework
Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006
Objectives and main focus (2)
Acceptability and stakeholders perspective To identify the terms and conditions for an effective
formulation and implementation of long term strategies based on the internalisation of external costs
To examine the robustness of the research results under various stakeholder perspectives
Transferability and generalisation to develop a simple way of calculating, transferring and
present the uncertainty of default values for average/aggregate external costs
Integration To develop a structured “protocol” to facilitate the
widespread use of the integrated analysis framework
Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006
LCA: main targeted innovation
Key challenge: to provide sound life cycle inventory data (as a basis for external cost assessment) for technologies in the far future (2030 – 2050)
• advanced fossil fuels• hydrogen technologies• fuel cells• offshore wind• photovoltaic• concentrating solar thermal power plant• biomass• advanced nuclear• wave energy• background processes
Focus on electricity generation technologies:
Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006
NEEDS Stream 1 b
Improvement of atmospheric modelling at hemispheric, European, local scale
Soil and water pathways (food, toxic substances)
Valuation of external costs:main targeted innovation
Exposure-response-relationships for human health Assessment of biodiversity changes
Assessment of climate change
Valuation of mortality and morbidity
Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006
To develop an energy-environmental model, technology oriented and based on economic equilibrium, which allows for both a worldwide perspective and a disaggregation for Europe and within the Member States and Accession Countries
To incorporate the results from LCA and ExternE (the most important emissions, materials and damage functions), including them in their long term development
To compare scenarios that simulate various policy approaches (setting thresholds for CO2 emission, renewables penetration, etc.) using the key base data received form the other streams to calculate equilibrium quantities and prices.
Modelling: main targeted innovation
Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006
Ultimate objective: broadening the basis for decision support beyond the assessment of external costs.
through
Experimenting complementary approaches allowing direct involvement of stakeholders
Testing the acceptability of results based on external cost assessment by stakeholders
Acceptability and stakeholders perspective: main targeted innovation
Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006
• To explore to what extent the stakeholders accept the assessed external costs.
• To address and evaluate sustainability of candidate technologies (and/or technology mixes) under economic, environmental and social criteria.
• To investigate the sensitivity of results of sustainability assessment to specific patterns in stakeholder preferences.
• To examine possible differences in the ranking of options established by employing alternative approaches to the evaluation.
• To identify most robust technological options and prioritised developments for the promising but less robust ones.
Acceptability and stakeholders perspective: specific objectives
Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006
Establishment of sustainability criteria and indicatorssurveysocial criteria (underdeveloped)
Quantification of indicators
Establishment of technology roadmapMCDA approachEvaluations and analysis integration
Stakeholder perspectivesacceptability of monetary valuation and role in policy
making processsurveys
Acceptability and stakeholders perspective: approach
Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006
Integration into policy and decision making
Long term perspective• Future technologies
Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006
Integration into policy and decision making
Long term perspective• Future technologies• Dynamic LCA (time- and scenario-dependent)
Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
€/kg
….
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
€/kg2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
€/kg
….
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
€/kg
France
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
€/kg2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
€/kg
France
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
kg/kWh
….
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
kg/kWh
….
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
kg/kWh
fuel cell
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
kg/kWh
fuel cell
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
kg/kWh
PV
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
kg/kWh
PV
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
€/kg
Germany
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
€/kg2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
€/kg
Germany
RS1a RS1b
technology specific external costs per unit electricity generation
(Excel format) (Excel format)
€/kWh
LCA of individual technologies External costs per unit emission
Time dependency
Scenario dependency
Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006
Stakeholders involvement in NEEDS
From the 1° Annual Review of NEEDS:“The Consortium should:
• Identify key users of the project products and engage with them
• Define scenarios and a precise policy case, based on preoccupations of the policy community […]
• […] organise engagement and reflection with the policy community in the European institutions and in Members States”
Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006
Stakeholders involvement in NEEDS
Community of users
• Energy demand (Industry, Households)• Energy supply (Producers, Distributors)• NGOs/Associations (National, European)• Decision makers (European, national, regional)• Researchers/consultants• Authorities• Energy & Environmental Agencies
Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006
Stakeholders involvement in NEEDS
The NEEDS “fora” The Policy Advisory Group The NEEDS policy workshops Stakeholders surveys (Stream 2b: acceptability
and stakeholders perspective) Other dissemination, communication and liaison
instruments• Website• Newsletters• Direct communication
Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006
Calendar of main events
First FORUM (Brussels, 2005)- Setting the scene First Policy Workshop (Rome, April 2006): discussion and
validation of scenarios Second Policy Workshop (Ljubljana, December
2006/January 2007): feedback from the stakeholders surveys on acceptability and impacts of internalisation
Second FORUM (Krakow, June 2007): security of energy supply
Third FORUM (Cairo, November 2007): energy externalities in the Mediterranean Countries
Third Policy Workshop (Zurich t.b.c., March 2008) Fourth FORUM (Brussels, june 2008): Final NEEDS
conference