Analyst Meeting 2016...2016E showing rolling 12 months as of September 2016. Note: GP reflects pure...
Transcript of Analyst Meeting 2016...2016E showing rolling 12 months as of September 2016. Note: GP reflects pure...
Analyst Meeting 2016 November 11, 2016
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9:00 a.m. - 9:45 a.m. Strategic ContextDG Macpherson
9:45 a.m. - 10:30 a.m. U.S. Business Panel Deb Oler, Elizabeth Ubell, Paige Robbins
10:30 a.m. - 11:00 a.m. Canada Business Update John Kaul
11:00 a.m. - 11:15 a.m. Break
11:15 a.m. - 11:45 a.m. Financial Update Ron Jadin
11:45 a.m. - 12:30 p.m. Q&A
Agenda
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All statements in this presentation, other than those relating to historical facts, are “forward-
looking statements” based on our current view of the competitive market and the overall
environment. Factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those statements
include, among other risks and uncertainties, a major loss of customers or suppliers, competitive
pressures, legal proceedings, changes in laws and regulations, general economic, industry or
market conditions, technological or operational disruptions, natural and other catastrophes and
other factors that can be found in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission,
including our most recent Forms 10-K and 10-Q, which are available on our Investor Relations
website. We disclaim any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, except as
required by law.
Safe harbor statement
Strategic Context DG Macpherson – Chief Executive Officer
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~$560B global market
for products
consumed by
businesses for
maintenance, repair
and operations (MRO)
that are offered by
Grainger
5
Africa $14B
Middle East $22B
North America $146B
South America
$35B
Western Europe $115B
Eastern Europe $15B
Northern Europe $14B
Pacific $13B
East Asia $100B
South Asia $13B
Northern Asia $12B
South East Asia $20B
Japan $37B
Source: Grainger Analytics and Global Insights. Data as of 6/30/2016.
Global MRO market concentrated in industrialized regions
6 6
GWW Sales
MRO Market
All Other
~$329B
$0.4B
Germany
~$30B
$0.0B
Mexico
~$10B
$0.1B
UK
~$18B
$0.4B
Japan
~$37B
$0.6B
Canada
~$11B
$0.7B
U.S.
~$125B
$8.0B
% of GWW Sales
79% 7% 6% 4% 1% 0% 3%
Market Share
~6% ~6% ~1% ~2% ~1% <1% <1%
Note: MRO market data as of 6/30/2016. Grainger sales data is 2016E. U.S. sales include Zoro and Specialty Brands.
Grainger’s presence concentrated in developed regions
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+6.3
+7.7
+5.4
+6.9
+5.1
+6.1
+3.0
+3.3
+3.2
+4.0
-0.1
-0.9
-1.7
-2.3
+2.0
+1.8
Total Growth %
Mix Adjusted %**
F F -6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
US MRO Market Growth
Industrial / Export
Services / Consumer / Construction
Government / Healthcare
*Grainger’s internal estimate of MRO market performance. **Mix Adjusted index represents MRO market estimate adjusted for Grainger’s U.S. sales mix.
U.S. MRO market growth*
8 8
Broad liners more profitable
vs. other distributors
Fragmented market with
broad line players taking share
13% 18%
All others
2015
Broad liners
~$125B
2007
~$114B
U.S. MRO market share
2007–2015
2015 financials: broad line vs. other
industrial distributors
Broad line
Other industrial
distributors
OE% ROIC FCF / Sales
18%
4% 7%
20%
6%
8%
Broad line MRO continues to be an attractive space
9 9
Key commodities Prices indexed to 100 in Q2 2015
77
84
55
25
50
75
100
125
Oil
‘Q1’16
Ind
exe
d t
o 1
00
in Q
2 2
01
5
Q3’15 Q4’15 Q2’15
Copper
Iron Ore
U.S. and Canada MRO markets have
grown in long term but slowed recently
20
17
F
80
100
120
140
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
F
~$11B
~$101B
Canada
~$8B
~$125B
U.S.
MR
O M
arke
t in
dex
ed
to
10
0 in
20
05
U.S. and Canada MRO Market 2005–2015
Deflationary environment
in the U.S. today
MRO Market indexed to 100 in 2005
Although market has grown in the long term, currently seeing challenging conditions
10 10
Customers shifting rapidly
to digital channels
Large customers expect us to
compete at their place of business
Customers more
aware of competitors’ prices
Percent of lines
by channel
Google web
search results
Grainger order origination lines
(CAGR, 2010–2015)3
30
40
50
60
702
01
5
20
14
20
12
20
13
20
11
20
10
% o
f G
IS L
ines
by
Ch
ann
el
60%
40%
Digital Channels1
Traditional Channels2
Dewalt Positive Clutch Screwdriver, RPM 2500,6.5
15%
30%
(5%)
(4%)
KeepStock®
EDI / ePro
Branch
Phone
1. Digital channels include Grainger.com, EDI/ePro and KeepStock. 2. Traditional channels include all others (phone, branch). 3. Line CAGR shown for Large customers (>$60K in MRO potential).
Customer behavior is changing
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2006 2016
Single demand generation paradigm
Segmented demand generation to target verticals and different size customers
Orders originated largely via branch and phone
Orders originated largely online
Fulfillment via branch and shipping
Fulfillment dominated by shipping
Customers come to us We serve customers at their place of business
We have changed with customer shifts
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Against that backdrop, we have five distinct businesses
U.S. Large
U.S. Medium
Single channel
Canada
International
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2016E Rev Growth 2016E Revenue 2016E OE% 2016E ROIC
$6.1B
$0.9B
$0.7B
$1.1B
15–20%
25–30%
(5–10%)
~10%
~0%
(10–15%)
(15–20%)
30–35%
$0.9B 0–5% ~35%2
$10.2B 10–15% ~2.0% TOTAL COMPANY3:
40–45%
(10–15%)
~50%1
>10%
~25%
1. ROIC shown is for MonotaRO, which serves as a proxy for the overall single channel business. 2. International includes eight months of Cromwell acquisition. 3. Total company also includes Specialty Brands, eliminations and unallocated expenses.
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Today Over the Next Three Years
Improved customer experience • Competitively advantaged product offer and
delivery performance • Leading digital experience • Simplified pricing
• Share gains driven by U.S. Large customers and single channel online model
Creating unique value for a broader set of customers • Stronger volume growth across more customer
types and geographies
• Multichannel company with strong digital capability
• Competitively advantaged product offer and delivery performance
• Operating earnings contraction driven by gross profit pressure
• Strong free cash flow growth
Improved financials • Operating earnings expansion driven by stable
gross profit margins, SG&A leverage • Strong free cash flow growth
Grainger over the next three years
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Our strategic priorities guide our execution
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Strategic priorities for the company
Unique value for
different
customers
Effortless
customer
experience
Reduce
cost
U.S. Large U.S. Medium Single
channel Canada
Grow spot-buy volume via relevant
pricing and digital capabilities
Grow with large,
complex
customers
Re-engage
mid-sized
customers
Turn around
business
Continue to
build online
model
Improve the end-to-end experience for our customers
Reduce cost structure throughout the company
International
Optimize
portfolio for
profitable
growth
Help each other
grow and succeed
Responsible
stewards
Instill leadership behaviors and ensure focus on team member
development and engagement
Maintain highest standards of ethics and integrity
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Expense % of COGS
Strong cost management
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1516E
COMPANY
U.S. SEGMENT
eCommerce shift,
KeepStock improvement,
productivity,
structural reductions
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Touch points where Grainger has
Clear Advantage
Touch points with
Opportunities for Incremental Improvement
Sales representatives
Branches
Website and Search
Determining the right price
Fulfillment
We lead the competitive set in critical elements of the customer experience
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U.S. Large customer item purchase frequency
Customer item purchase frequency1
Repeat / Planned
Spot buy
’16E Sales V% ’16E GP%
~35%
~45%
~50%
~55%
Customers are increasingly using Grainger for planned or negotiated purchases…
…. and less for more profitable spot buys
7%
43%
27%
23%
1
2 to 5
6 to 9
10+
’16E Lines
1. Represents how many times an item was bought by an account in a given year. 2016E showing rolling 12 months as of September 2016. Note: GP reflects pure product GP, not externally reported GP.
Large customers using Grainger more for high volume items
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14
5
-6
-15
0
15
30
Volume CAGR 2011-2015 (%)
Less
competitive
price
More
competitive
price
U.S. Large customers
Total • Good growth seen with
more competitively priced products
• Moderate overall growth,
but with significant sales force attention to pricing
% of total 44 56 100
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This pricing dynamic is impeding growth and profitability with large customers
Current Status
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U.S. Medium customers
1. 4 Year cost of goods sold (COGS) CAGR (11-15); 2. 2015 data Note: Excludes sourcing Source: Teradata; BCG Analysis
• Medium customer business has been declining for some time
• Higher-priced products are a barrier to acquiring new customers
• Growth attained where prices are competitive
% of total 77 23 100
20
-8 -6
-15
0
15
30
1
Less
competitive
price
More
competitive
price
Total
Pricing dynamic also has a negative impact on medium customers
Volume CAGR 2011-2015 (%)
Current status
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• Began introducing market-based pricing into contracts 18 months ago
U.S. Large
U.S. Medium
• Medium program launched in 2015
• Enhanced with inside sales model the past six months
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Pilot results Recent pricing programs
Competitive price
Less competitive price
Annualized volume growth %
Customers on pricing program
Customers not on pricing program
Annualized volume growth %*
* Early results represent a very small sample.
Market based pricing programs have shown strong results
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Single channel model focuses on small customers with a simple web solution and
competitive pricing while leveraging our back-end capabilities
MonotaRO
Launched in 2000 in Japan, Grainger owns 51%
Our most mature single channel online business
2016E Sales:
$600M
Zoro U.S.
Launched in 2011, leveraging expertise from
MonotaRO and U.S. businesses
U.S. supply chain enabling faster growth than Japan
2016E Sales:
$400M
Zoro Europe
Launched in 2014 to expand online model in Europe with
small facility in Germany
Business in start-up mode
2016E Sales:
<$20M
Cromwell Direct
Launched in 2016 to expand online model in U.K. by
leveraging Cromwell business
Business in very early stage
2016E Sales:
<$5M
Single channel is a ~$1B business in 2016
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Operating margin expansion also expected along with strong revenue growth
Single channel revenue projection
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
Zoro Germany
CromwellOnline
Zoro (U.S. andCanada)
MonotaRO
$ in
mil
lio
ns
Single channel model expected to grow to ~$2B by 2019
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Before After
Cromwell integration update
25 25 25
Unique value for a broader set of customers
• Stronger volume growth across more customer types and
geographies
Effortless customer experience
• Competitively advantaged product offer and delivery performance
• Leading digital experience
• Simplified pricing
Improved financials
• OE expansion driven by stable gross
profit margins, SG&A leverage
• Strong free cash flow growth
Where we are headed
U.S. Business Panel Deb Oler – VP & President, Large Customer & Direct Sales
Elizabeth Ubell – VP & President, Medium Customers, Marketing & eCommerce
Paige Robbins – SVP, Global Supply Chain, Branch Network, Contact Centers & Strategy
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U.S. Large: Focused on multisite, largest single sites and institutions
Largest business at Grainger with
healthy profitability
$6.1B
40-45%
15-20%
Revenue
GP%
OE%
U.S. Large focused on sites with >$60K in MRO potential or part
of a multisite contract
2016E Financials Part of a
multisite contract
~$1.1B
~$0.3B ~$0.1B
~$0.7B
~$4.3B
~$0.6B
Single-site/
local
Large (>$60K)
Size (MRO potential
in $ / year)
Medium ($10-60K)
Small (<$10K)
~$5.4B
~$1.3B
~$0.4B
Total
In total, Grainger’s U.S. Large business plays in a
~$75B market with ~8% share at $6.1B
Represents 2016E
revenue1
1. Multichannel only. Does not include Zoro and Specialty Brands. Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding.
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U.S. Large: Seller configuration
• 200 contract account sellers
• 2600 field sellers
Sellers
+ Vertical Alignment
• ~90% of sellers aligned to industry verticals e.g., Healthcare, Manufacturing, Commercial and Government
• Customized training for sellers
• Customized offer to customers
= 180 basis point improvement
• Verticalized sales packages yield sales performance that is 180 basis points better than traditional (geographic) packages
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U.S. Medium: Focused on single site customers with <$60,000 in MRO potential
Modest sized business with
high profitability
Revenue
GP%
OE%
$0.9B
50-55%
25-30%
2016E Financials
In total, Grainger’s U.S. Medium business plays in a ~$30B market with ~2% share
and a ~$20B Small business market with ~1% share
Part of a
multisite contract
~$1.1B
~$0.3B ~$0.1B
~$0.7B
~$4.3B
~$0.6B
Single-site/
local
Large (>$60K)
Size (MRO potential
in $ / year)
Medium ($10-60K)
Small (<$10K)
~$5.4B
~$1.3B
~$0.4B
Total
U.S. Medium focused on <$60K
in MRO potential
1. Multichannel only. Does not include Zoro and Specialty Brands. Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding.
Represents 2016E
revenue1
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Offer Roll-Out
U.S. Medium: Building the medium customer offer and team
Q2’2016 and Q3’2016 Q4’2016 2017
Inside Sales Start-Up
Transitioned sales coverage
Began contacting
~100,000 customers with inside sellers
Begin tailored marketing offers
Cover ~10,000
additional customers
Covering ~50,000 additional customers
Team
M
em
be
rs
Q4’2015 and Q1’2016
Team Launch
Formed offer and marketing team
Signed lease for inside
sales center
<20 <2001 <230 <330
Act
ivit
y
1. Balance of the 275 inside sellers added in 2016 are assigned to medium multisite contract customers.
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U.S. Large: Driver activities – consistent execution
Sales Management System
• All sellers managed against driver activities that correlate to profitable revenue growth.
• Leaders at all levels view and coach to driver activities.
• Dashboards in Salesforce.com are updated in real time to most recent activities.
• Consistent metrics aligned on activities that drive growth and reduce execution variation.
% of customers touched
New contracts acquired
Pipeline close rate Customer contacts, touches increasing
Starting to see impact to daily
sales results
32
U.S. Medium: Types of medium local customers
Number of
customers
Revenue
Non-Customers Low/Med
SOW Uncovered
High Share of Wallet
(SOW)
Active GWW Customers
$19B $8B
<50K
Zero today ~$200M ~$300M
Low/Med SOW Covered
$2B
~$100M
$1B
<65K <375K 1 Million
MRO Potential
Covered by inside sellers by year end 2016
Performance
’16 ’17 ’16 ’17 ’16 ’17
2016E
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U.S. Medium: Low/Medium covered customer – Impact of new pricing program
Sales
Orders
GP$
GP%
Newsprint manufacturer in the southeast U.S. signed up on new pricing program called Red Pass Plus (RP+) in April 2015.
Pre RP+
Post RP+
85%
21% Pre RP+
Post RP+
75% Post RP+
Pre RP+
55%
Post RP+
Pre RP+
52%
Average Order
Volume 31%
Pre RP+
Post RP+
Customer Example:
Low/Med
SOW Covered
Pre RP+ Post RP+
Cleaning Abrasives
HVAC Cleaning
Lubrication Electrical
Motors Fleet & Vehicle
Safety Hand Tools
Welding Lighting
Lubrication
Material Handling
Motors
Plumbing
Pneumatics
Power Transmission
Safety
Welding
Product segments
purchased
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Ord
er
Ori
gin
atio
n
Branch
Phone
Grainger.com
KeepStock®
EDI/ePro
2011-2015
Line CAGR
2015 Line mix %
30%
27%
19%
14%
10%
U.S. Contact Center Network
(10%)
8%
29%
13%
(10%)
Customer Channels: Order origination shift
Adjusting Contact Center location strategy to:
• Increase flexibility to manage volume and changing work as customers migrate to digital channels • Enable better service, team member engagement and efficiency through fewer, larger locations
35
Customer Channels: Order fulfillment shift
411 419 422 406 385 355 353 353 345
306 252
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Plan
U.S. Branch Network*
61%
18%
16%
5%
Pick up at Branch
DC to Zoro Customer
DC to KeepStock®
DC to Customer
*Reflects core U.S. business; excludes acquisitions and specialty businesses
2016E
Ord
er
Fulf
illm
en
t
2011-2015 Line CAGR
2015 Line mix %
0%
29%
(12%)
>40%
• Branch network right-sized for current and future volume • Repositioned branches to serve distinct customer needs
36
Supply Chain: Industry-leading B2B supply chain
Unmatched service
• Best-in-class availability on large assortment that is continually increasing and evolving
• Network designed to ship complete and deliver quickly
• Capability to provide specialized documentation and delivery options for large, complex customers
• Breadth and flexibility to support multiple businesses and channels
Strong productivity
• Automation that reduces cost per line and improves safety
• Standardization across the network
North American distribution network
37
Registration:
Creating a faster experience
Search and Select:
Improving terms and presentation
• ~30% of Grainger.com revenue impacted by year end • +100bps improvement YTD in Search to Cart
• Registration required for personalized experience • 50% improvement in conversion in 2016
eCommerce: Improving the digital experience for all customers
38
Large Contract Customers
• Drive greater contract realization through sales force vertical alignment
• Expand business development team to bring more customers under contract
Key focus areas going forward
1
2 Large Non-Contract Customers
• Improve customer coverage • Accelerate volume growth with market-
based pricing
U.S. Large continues to outperform market
but share gain has slowed recently
2016E 2015
0.9%
(0.1%)
2011-14
8.8%
4.0%
(1.5%) to
(2.5%)
Market1 Grainger
GWW delta vs. market
~480 bps ~100 bps ~130 bps
1. Market refers to the MRO market for all large (>$60K in MRO potential) and multisite locations; 2016E showing U.S. Large growth YTD September 2016.
U.S. Large: Actions in place will enable progress toward returning to historical performance against market
(0.7%)
39
Grow more consistently with different customer segments
Improve the customer experience
Laser-focused on execution
Summary: U.S. business panel
Canada Business Update John Kaul – VP & President, Acklands – Grainger
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Oil and gas, natural resources and Canadian dollar decline
79.40 94.87
94.11 97.91
93.26
48.69 41.15
3.5%
3.0%
2.0%
2.1% 2.4% 1.2% 1.3%
6.9%
12.0%
4.4%
(0.7%)
1.6%
(4.1%) (2.8%) -6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD
Oil price, GDP and MRO correlation
USD Oil Price / barrel {WTI} Real GDP Growth {2007 Prices}MRO **
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
400
900
1,400
1,900
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD
Commodity price indices
Energy Metals and Minerals
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD
CAD/USD Average Exchange Rate
Canada: Macroeconomic challenges
42
86%
60%
14%
40%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Overall Market AGI
NaturalResource
Other
20%
80%
Customer Size (2015)
Medium/Small
Large
Canada volume from natural resources is ~40% vs. 14% of the Canadian MRO market (2015)
38%
62%
Regional Sales (2015)
East
West
Over-indexed to natural resources, affecting sales and earnings Canada: Disproportionate mix in west and with large customers
43
2014-15: Investment
• SAP
• Toronto distribution center
• Warehouse management system
2016: Stabilization
• Direct to customer fulfillment path
• SAP transition
• Business restructuring
2017: Growth
• Build stocked assortment
• Customer diversification
• New eCommerce platform
• Price increase (to offset FX driven COGS inflation)
• Grow share in high opportunity areas of Canada • Leverage Grainger U.S. scale and expertise • Deliver a business less susceptible to market volatility
Delivering sustainable growth Canada: Repositioning the business
44
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov
Percent of lines fulfilled DTC
Opportunity to simultaneously reduce cost, improve service Canada: Stabilizing service – direct-to-customer (DTC) fulfillment
On pace to exceed 50% DTC fulfillment at year end
2016
45
• SAP surfaced legacy challenges
– Undefined assortment and fulfillment
– Master data
– Non-standard work
• Dedicated teams stabilizing customer experience
– Product availability
– Open and rejected orders
– Invoice disputes
• Customer example: Ontario-based utility company
- Assortment and fulfilment challenges
- Improvement driven by stabilization efforts and DTC fulfillment
89%
77% 77%
55%
80% 83%
92% 92%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
March April May June July August September October
2016 Customer fill rate
Bringing an effortless experience to our customers Canada: Stabilizing service
46
• Historically decentralized assortment
– 170 different assortments
– ~80% of transactions from stocked assortment and ~20% sourced
• Improving stocked assortment
– Today, 92% of lines filled in Canada come from stocked offer
• Enables better customer experience, diversification and scale
The right product, at the right place, at the right time Canada: Growth – improving stocked assortment
47
Current web experience
New acklandsgrainger.com
New acklandsgrainger.com launches in December 2016 Canada: Growth – transforming the online experience
48
• Diversification pilots – Food and beverage
manufacturing (launched)
– Chemical and pharmaceutical manufacturing (Q1 2017)
• Leveraging Grainger U.S. business – Product assortment
– Offer development, marketing
– Customer service
Western Canada1
• ~40% of MRO market • >90% of oil & gas
market • 62% of AGI
volume
Eastern Canada1
• ~60% of MRO market
• <10% of oil & gas market
• 38% of AGI volume
1. Data as of 12/31/2015
Diversifying by customer type and geography Canada: Growth – transforming Acklands – Grainger
49
• Operating expenses down ~10% year-over-year, adjusted for restructuring costs
– Closed 26 branches in the past 18 months, expect further optimization
– Restructuring resulted in reduction of 250 team members, or 10% of workforce
• SAP enables additional productivity improvements
– Working capital utilization
– Centralization of key functions
– Other indirect procurement opportunities
• Moving to more variable cost structure
Positioning the business for sustainable growth Canada: Resetting the cost structure
50
• Address systemic and macroeconomic challenges affecting business performance
• Leverage foundational investments to diversify and support long-term growth
• Reduce cost structure, while improving service
• Focus on execution and profitability
Addressing fundamental issues, getting back to growth Canada: Path to sustainable profitability