Analysis of the Impact of Bankruptcy Risk Estimation on ...
Transcript of Analysis of the Impact of Bankruptcy Risk Estimation on ...
Analysis of the Impact of Bankruptcy Risk Estimation on Auditor
Conservatism
Meysam Foroughi Abari∗
Darush Foroughi∗∗ Iraj Kazemi∗∗∗
Abstract
Objective: Many accounting and auditing variables represent forecasts
of future events. Accordingly, decision making under conditions of
uncertainty is of fundamental importance in accounting and auditing
studies. An important aspect of such studies is estimating the risk of
corporate bankruptcy. The estimated risk occurs because the probability
of the customer going bankrupt is unknown and must be determined
statistically. The bankruptcy risk is somehow different from the estimated
risk. Some companies can have the same point estimates of bankruptcy
while they do not have the same risk estimates.
The level of risk estimation indicates the degree of inaccuracy in the
point estimates of bankruptcy. We measure the risk estimate using the
standard errors of point estimates of the bankruptcy because the risk
estimate is the second-moment risk and measures the estimation precision
and uncertainty around the point estimates of bankruptcy. In other words,
we use the variance-covariance matrix to compute the standard errors of
point estimates. In general, given the importance of bankruptcy and its
consequences, our research aims to assess auditor's conservatism by
Journal of Accounting Knowledge/ Vol. 11/ No. 3/ Ser.42 ∗ Ph.D. Student in Accounting, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.
∗∗
Associate Professor of Accounting, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran. ∗∗∗
Associate Professor of Statistics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.
Corresponding Author: Darush Foroughi (Email: [email protected]).
Submitted: 30 November 2019 Accepted: 19 May 2020
DOI: 10.22103/jak.2020.15009.3129
Abstract
measuring the risk estimates and analyzing their impacts on auditor
behavior.
Methods: In this study, we first obtained the point estimates of
bankruptcy and their standard errors, and then we predicted bankruptcy
by specific models over rolling windows over the past five years. Then,
we estimated multiple regression and probit models using the data set of
110 companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange, TSE, from 2007 to
2017. The data set was collected using financial statements, audit reports
on the financial statements, the official website of the TSE, and the
official data from the Iranian Association of Certified Public Accountants.
At last, we performed data analysis to test related research hypotheses.
Results: According to the research findings, an increase in the
estimated risk of bankruptcy leads to a positive effect on the issuance of
going opinion and no effect on audit fees.
Conclusion: The main idea of this study is reporting auditors are risk-
averse. The estimated risk imposes incremental uncertainty on the risk-
averse auditors and consequently, affects their behaviors. On the other
hand, our findings suggest that auditors are more conservative when they
face a greater risk. Auditors are cautious about their professional
responsibility and social accountability related to the bankruptcy of their
client firms. Auditors get more conservative along with the increase of the
estimated risk.
Keywords: Audit Risk, Auditor Conservatism, Estimation Risk of
Bankruptcy, Audit Fee, Going Concern Opinion.
Citition: Foroughi Abari, M., Foroughi, D., Kazemi, I. (2020). Analysis
of the impact of bankruptcy risk estimation on auditor conservatism.
Journal of Accounting Knowledge, 11(3), 67-97.
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