Analisis Regional(1)
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Transcript of Analisis Regional(1)
Concentration Terminology
D I S T R I B U T I O N
RELATIVELY EVEN RELATIVELY UNEVEN(= Concentration)
SPATIALDISTRIBUTION "Dispersion" "Localization"
INDUSTRIALDISTRIBUTION "Diversification" "Specialization"
Table #1 Localization of an Industry
REGIONS
PERCENT OF NATIONAL TOTAL EMPLOYMENT OF
FOCAL INDUSTRY IN REGION (A-D)
PERCENT OF TOTAL U.S. MANUFACTURING
EMPLOYMENT IN REGION (A-D)
DIFFERENCE IN RELATIVE REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT IN
FOCAL INDUSTRY & ALL MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIES
LOCATION QUOTIENT OF FOCAL INDUSTRY
IN RESPECTIVE REGIONS
A 15 35 -20 .43
B 35 30 +5 1.17
C 30 20 +10 1.5
D 20 15 +5 1.33
Sum 100% 100% -20+20 (1.0)
The higher the coefficient, the greater the localization (spatial concentration) of the industry.
Table #2 Specialization of a Region
INDUSTRIES
PERCENT OF TOTAL (REGIONAL)
EMPLOYMENT IN FOCAL REGION IN INDUSTRIES
(A-D)
PERCENT OF TOTAL U.S. MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT IN INDUSTRIES (A-D)
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN REGIONAL &
NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT IN 4
INDUSTRIES
LOCATION QUOTIENTS OF
THE INDUSTRIES IN FOCAL REGION
A 15 35 -20 .43
B 35 30 +5 1.17
C 30 20 +10 1.5
D 20 15 +5 1.33
Sum 100% 100% -20+20 (1.0)
The higher the coefficient, the greater the regional specialization.
REGIONAL ANALYSIS
TIME - SPACE
(INTRA-) REGIONAL INTER-REGIONALSPATIAL
INTERACTIONAGGREGATES
F L O W SAGGREGATE
COMPARISONSF L O W S
STATIC / CROSSECTIONAL GDP/GRPRegional Input-Output
Location QuotientInterregional Input-Output
Gravity ModelNetwork Analysis
COMPARATIVE STATIC ANALYSIS
Regional Multipliers
Interregional MultipliersGravity-based Multipliers (Lowry)
COMPARATIVE CROSSECTIONAL ANALYSIS
Regional Rates of Change
Shift & Share Analysis
MULTI-PERIOD ANALYSISRegional Cohort Analysis
Inter-Regional Cohort Migration Analysis
Stochastic Spatial Models
DYNAMIC ANALYSIS Diffusion Models
Location Quetiont (L.Q.)
Metode Location Quetiont (L.Q.) merupakan metode untuk membandingkan potensi antar sektor dan antar daerah. Adapun rumus L.Q. yang digunakan sebagai berikut : Pi.j
---------- P.jL.Q. = ------------------ Pi. ----------- P.Keterangan :L.Q. = nilai Location QuetiontPi.j = nilai skala potensi sektor/komoditas i di daerah j P.j = nilai skala potensi seluruh sektor/komoditas di daerah jPi. = nilai skala potensi sektor/komoditas i di seluruh daerahP. = nilai skala potensi seluruh sektor/komoditas di seluruh daerah.
L.Q. > 1 = Sektor/Komoditas UnggulanL.Q. < 1 = Sektor/Komoditas Non Unggulan
Analisis Analisis Shift and ShareShift and Share Untuk mengetahui kinerja sektor-sektor pembangunan di Untuk mengetahui kinerja sektor-sektor pembangunan di suatu suatu
daerah daerah dilakukan analisis dilakukan analisis Shift and ShareShift and Share.. Menganalisis perubahan berbagai indikator kegiatan ekonomi Menganalisis perubahan berbagai indikator kegiatan ekonomi
(produksi/tenaga kerja) pada dua titik waktu pada suatu wilayah.(produksi/tenaga kerja) pada dua titik waktu pada suatu wilayah. Kriteria yang digunakan meliputi Kriteria yang digunakan meliputi pertumbuhapertumbuhan nasionaln nasional, ,
pertumbuhan proposional, dan pertumbuhan pertumbuhan proposional, dan pertumbuhan pangsa pangsa wilayahwilayah.. Selanjutnya dengan pendekatan empat Selanjutnya dengan pendekatan empat dimensi/kuadran dapat ditentukan kinerja masing-masing sektor dimensi/kuadran dapat ditentukan kinerja masing-masing sektor pada setiap kecamatan yang dikategorikan menjadi unggul, agak pada setiap kecamatan yang dikategorikan menjadi unggul, agak unggul, agak mundur, dan mundur. unggul, agak mundur, dan mundur.
Shift and ShareShift and ShareThe Proporsional Shift formula is very simply:
Proporsional Shift = Local Growth Rate for Sector I for Period X
- Regional Growth Rate for Sektor I for Period X
The Differential Share formula is very simply:
Differential Share = Regional Growth Rate for Sector I for Period X
- Regional Growth Rate for Total Sector for Period X
Growth Rate = (Product T1/Product T0)
Shift and ShareShift and ShareAnalisis ini dipergunakan untuk mengetahui kinerja perekonomian daerah terhadap
pertumbuhannya selama suatu periode tertentu. Kombinasi dari hasil perhitungan analisis
shift dan share akan menghasilkan indikator-indikator sebagai berikut :
- Nilai proporsional shift dan differential share-nya positif, maka sektor ini dianggap
mempunyai peranan penting dalam perekonomian wilayah internal dan juga terhadap
perekonomian wilayah yang lebih luas. (Unggul)
- Nilai proporsional shift positif dan nilai differential share-nya negative, maka sektor ini
hanya meningkatkan pada sistem perekonomian yang lebih luas . (Agak Unggul)
- Nilai proporsional shift negative dan nilai differential share positif, maka sektor ini
hanya dapat meningkatkan peranannya dalam wilayah internal, tetapi tidak dapat
meningkatkan perekonomian yang lebih luas (kabupaten). (Agak Mundur)
- Nilai proporsional shift dan differential share negative, maka sektor yang bersangkutan
tidak mempunyai peranan dalam meningkatkan perekonomian internal ataupun
perekonomian wilayah yang lebih luas. (Mundur)
proporsional shift
differential share
+
+
-
-
PPendekatan endekatan EEmpat mpat DDimensi/imensi/KKuadranuadran
UnggulAgak Mundur
Agak UnggulMundur
Penggandaan BasisPenggandaan Basis
Perubahan pada total tenaga kerja
• Penggadaan Basis =
Perubahan pada tenaga kerja basis
Three Basic Types of Interaction Models
ijjiij SWVfT ,, i jGeneral Formulation:V W
Tij
Sij
Gravity Model
2ij
jiij S
WVT
i j35 20
Sij = 8
Tij = 10.9
Tji = 10.9
Potential Model
j ij
ji S
WT
2
i
j
kl
20
1535
3
56
1.00.6
2.2Ti = 3.8
Retail Model
i
j
ijij
V
W
SB
1
i
jk15
40
3576
Bij = 4.9Bik = 2.8
Gravity ModelsGravity Models(http://faculty.washington.edu/krumme/systems/gravity.html)(http://faculty.washington.edu/krumme/systems/gravity.html)
IIijij = = f (Rf (R
ii, A, Ajj))
----------------------f (Df (D
ijij))
Interaction (I) between i and j is a function of repulsive forces (R) at i and attractive forces (A) at j, and an inverse function of the friction/distance (D) between i and j
Iij = the interaction volume from i to jRi = a parameter representing (repulsive) factors which are associated with "leaving" i (such as outmigration)Aj = a parameter representing (attractive) factors related to going to j (such as inmigration)Dij = the distance between i and j
The most basic formulation of the gravity model The most basic formulation of the gravity model simply substitutes the populations at i and j for the simply substitutes the populations at i and j for the
R and A factors.R and A factors.
Iij = k Pi Pj
-------Dij
b
P = Population of i & j
k & b = constants
X
2,000,000
Y
ZW
800 km
800 km400 km
2,000,0001,000,000k = 0.00001
(people per week)
2,000,000
Weight (P)
Distance (D)
Constant (k)
Centroid (i) Interaction (T)
Application of an Elementary Spatial Interaction Equation
W X Y Z Ti
W 100,000 100,000
X 100,000 50,000 25,000 175,000
Y 50,000 50,000
Z 25,000 25,000
Tj 100,000 175,000 50,000 25,000 350,000
ij
jiij D
PPkT
Elementary Formulation
Application of a Simple Spatial Interaction Equation
X
2,000,000
Y
ZW
800 km
800 km400 km
2,000,0001,000,000k = 0.00001
(people per week)
2,000,000
Weight (P)
Distance (D)
Constant (k)
Centroid (i) Interaction (T)
W X Y Z Ti
W 71,378 71,378
X 6,059 2,203 1 8,263
Y 19,420 19,420
Z 153,893 153,893
Tj 6,059 244,692 2,203 1 252,954
ij
jiij D
PPkT
Simple Formulation
Exponent
= 0.95 = 1.05
= 1.25 = 1.0 = 0.95
= 1.2 = 0.4
= 1.03 = 0.96
Lowry Migration Model Migration from i to j is directly related to high wages at j, low relative unemployment at j and a large civilian labor force at either origin and/or destination. I t is inversely related to high wages at i, low unemployment at i and increasing distance between i and j.
Mij = k [
Ui --------
Uj x
Wj --------
Wi x
Li Lj ----------
Dij ] eij
M = number of migrants L = persons in labor force U = unemployment in % W = hourly wage in manufacturing D = airline distance k = gravitational constant e = error term
Source: I ra Lowry, Migration and Metropolitan Growth: Two Analytical Models (1966)
Economic Base Concept & AnalysisEconomic Base Concept & Analysis(http://faculty.washington.edu/krumme/350/econbase.html)(http://faculty.washington.edu/krumme/350/econbase.html)
What are "basic" and "non-basic" activities? Basic:
o Exports (incl. Export Services, Tourism) o Investments: Housing, Business etc. o Government Expenditures (Gov. Investments, Current
Operations), o Transfer Payments
= "exogenous" to our model "Non-Basic": household-induced, local-service oriented activities = "endogenous" to our model
Export Environments(e.g.: Aerospace &
Software) Exporting Sectors (Basic) Households Local Sectors (Non-Basic)
Indirect Direct Direct Indirect Basic HhsNon-Basic
HhsDirect Indirect
AirbusDomestic & Foreign Air TravelPolitical Instabilities World-Wide Computer Use
Domestic & Foreign AirlinesPentagonDirect & Hardware- Dependent Software Demand
Direct Boeing or Microsoft Exports
Local Subcontractor & Suppliers
Households of Boeing, Microsoft & Subcontractor Employees
Households of Local service (Non-Basic) or
Employees
Local Shopping Centers and Retail Stores, Restaurants, Education, Health Care,
Suppliers of Non-Basic Activities and other Linked Activities
"Leakages"Imports
Federal TaxesCapital Outflows
Imported Parts and Materials
SavingsE-Commerce PurchasesTaxesTourismInsurance Premiumsother Payments
Imports by Retailers (Cars from Detroit or Stuttgart)Imported Parts and Materials by Local Sector Producers
Export Base Multiplier Relationshipsand Exercise
(http://faculty.washington.edu/krumme/systems/econbase.html)
Employment Multipliers (Economic Base) Employment Multipliers (Economic Base) (http://faculty.washington.edu/krumme/207/development/basemploy.html)(http://faculty.washington.edu/krumme/207/development/basemploy.html)
The simple economic base (employment) multiplier is The simple economic base (employment) multiplier is presented in three different forms, respectively emphasizing presented in three different forms, respectively emphasizing different components and roles of the multiplier different components and roles of the multiplier
Total Employment (T) = Basic Employment (B) + Nonbasic Total Employment (T) = Basic Employment (B) + Nonbasic Employment (N)Employment (N)
Multiplier Effect (ME)Multiplier Effect (ME) = Nonbasic Employment generated = Nonbasic Employment generated (by Basic employment) (by Basic employment) OR:OR:Basic employment multiplied by Nonbasic employment per Basic employment multiplied by Nonbasic employment per basic employee basic employee OR:OR:Basic Employment x Multiplier minus Basic Employment Basic Employment x Multiplier minus Basic Employment OR:OR:Basic Employment x (Multiplier - 1) Basic Employment x (Multiplier - 1)
Multiplier Formulation #1
T = B + N
T
B =
B+N
B
T = B (B + N)
B
T = B T
B
M1 = T
B
(Multiplier: Total employment generated per basic employee)
Multiplier Formulation #2
T
T
T
1 1 1
= = = =
B
B
T
T-N
T
T
T
- N
T
1 - N
T
1
M2 =
1 - N
T
Denominator: "leakage coefficient" (the larger this coefficient, the smaller the multiplier)
N/T = "retention coefficient" (the larger this coefficient, the
larger the multiplier). This coefficient is the equivalent of the "propensity to consume locally" (pcl) x "income generated per local consumption dollar" (iclcs) in the local income multiplier.
Multiplier Formulation #3
T = B + ME
T = B + B N
B
T = B (1 + N
B
)
M3 = (1 + N
B
)
[In this formulation, the emphasis is on the N/B ratio and the role of the "1" in multipliers (namely to isolate and
preserve the basic component in the resulting total employment)]
Multiplier Effect
ME = B N
B
ME = Multiplier EffectB = Basic Employment N = Nonbasic Employment
Economic Base Concept: Income & Employment Multipliers
pcl = .8 (Propensity to consume locally)
icles = .25 (Income created by local consumption sales (per $ of sales)
Multiplier = 1
--------------- 1 - .8 x .25
= 1
----- .8
= 1.25
Employment Multiplier:Definitions: "The employment multiplier associated with a
particular regional economic stimulus is designed to yield an estimate of the total employment attributable to the stimulus per job or man-year of employment directly created." [Davis, Regional Economic Impact Analysis and Project Evaluation, 1990, p.37]
The (basic/non-basic) employment "multiplier is equal to total (or increase in) employment in both basic and service activities divided by total (or increase in) basic employment." [Isard, Methods of Regional Analysis, 1960, p.190]
(1) T = B + N
(2) B = T - N
(3) B --- T
= T - N -------- T
(4) B --- T
= 1 - N/T
(5) B = T (1 - N/T)
(6) T = B ( 1
--------- 1 - N/T
)
^
|
|
MULTIPLIER
simplified further:
M = T --- B
(7) Tt+1 = Bt+1 ( Tt ---- Bt
)
(Application to forecasting next year's total employment)
Where: T = Total Employment B = Basic Employment N = Nonbasic Employment
The Location Quotient & the Multiplier The location quotient (l.q.) is frequently used
to estimate the economic base of a region. How will we do that? If the l.q. for a sector exceeds one, the sector is presumed to export. Thus, we take all sectors with an l.q. of above one and determine, sector by sector: (and then sum the export employment for all these sectors)
The Location Quotient & the Multiplier
Local Service Employment in sectori
=
Total Employment in sectori
------------------------- l.q. i
Export employment for sectori
= Total Employment
in sectori ( 1 -
1 ---- l.q.i
)
Base Multiplier Location Quotient
Movement (Flows in Space)Movement (Flows in Space)
• Three General Types of Movement
• Migration – movement of people from one place to another
– Immigration – people entering (moving into) an area– Emigration – people exiting (moving out of) an area
• Diffusion – the movement of ideas, beliefs, values, or innovations from one place to another.
• Spatial Interaction – the level and intensity of various activities that take place among locations (Example: trade between countries).
– By examining a particular type of spatial interaction, functional regions can be delimited.
Interdependence :
Spatial interaction: all kinds of movements or flows that involve human activity.This includes migration, commuting, telecommunication, cash flows etc.
Spatial Diffusion: the process by which things spread through space and over time.Example, disease outbreaks, political movements, fashion, architectural styles etc.Spatial diffusion does not occur in a completely random manner. Diffusion processes can be predicted and plotted.
Complementarity is essential for diffusion to occur. It can be a result of physical factors or even the world economic system.
Sistem Wilayah
Methods of Intraregional Analysis : Dominant Analytical Questions
(Sumber : Bendavid – Val, 1991)
Basic Statistical Compendium What are the overall economic of the
region’s subareas and town, and how do they compare with each other in terms of important characteristic ?
Income Measures
What are the levels of different types of income in different part of region ?
Social Accounts
What is the relationship between income levels in different parts of the region and the different prevailing production patterns, and in turn, the values of flows across the region’s borders ?
Economic Composition Analysis What are the relative levels on concentration or
specialization in selected characteristics or activities among different parts of region, and what are the associated consequences ?
Indeks KosentrasiIndeks Kosentrasi
Kecenderungan menyebar atau Kecenderungan menyebar atau terkosentarsinya penduduk/aktivitas terkosentarsinya penduduk/aktivitas ekonomiekonomi
nn Σ (Xi – Yi)Σ (Xi – Yi) 11
C = --------------------C = -------------------- 22
Xi = Persentase Luas Sub Wilayah iXi = Persentase Luas Sub Wilayah iYi = Persentase Jumlah Yi = Persentase Jumlah Penduduk/Aktivitas Ekonomi pd Sub Wilayah iPenduduk/Aktivitas Ekonomi pd Sub Wilayah in = Jumlah Sub Wilayah in = Jumlah Sub Wilayah i
Rentang Nilai 0 – 100, Semakin Tinggi Semakin Rentang Nilai 0 – 100, Semakin Tinggi Semakin TerkosentrasiTerkosentrasi
Koefisien DistribusiKoefisien Distribusi
DQ = (Yi/Xi)DQ = (Yi/Xi)
DQ = Koefisien DistribusiDQ = Koefisien Distribusi Xi = Persentase Luas Sub Wilayah IXi = Persentase Luas Sub Wilayah I Yi = Persentase Jumlah Penduduk/Aktivitas Ekonomi Yi = Persentase Jumlah Penduduk/Aktivitas Ekonomi
pd Sub Wilayah Ipd Sub Wilayah I
Semakin Tinggi Nilai DQ Semakin TerkosentrasiSemakin Tinggi Nilai DQ Semakin Terkosentrasi
Natural Resource Assessments What are the natural resources endowment of
different part of the region, and what ate the associated the problems and potentials ?
Linkage Investigations
What are the mayor types of linkages and their magnitudes among central places in the region ?
Flows Studies
What volume of selected goods flow between major points of origin and destination in the region ?
Friction Analysis
What are the major factors inhibiting interaction among central places in the region ?
Extended Commodity Trade System Analysis What are the intraregional marketing chains of
important commodities, particularly rural commodities produced for sale outside the region ?
Economic Base and Accrual Analysis What is relationship between outside demand for
the products of different areas in the region and economic expansion of those areas and of the region as a whole, based on simple multiplier relationships ?
Input - Output Analysis
What are in the interindustry linkages and their multiplier effects among different parts of the region as related to outside demand for the region’s products ?
Rural – Urban Exchange Analysis What are the comparative rural – urban
income multiplication effect associated with different agricultural commodities in different parts of the region ?
Access Studies
What is the degree of access of the population of different parts of the region to functions provided by the region’s central places, and what does this suggest about effective demand for those functions ?
Functional Analysis
What are the functions provided by the region’s settlement system, what sorts of hierarchical networks prevail within it, and what does this suggest about effective supply of those functions ?
Pusat Pelayanan Sektor Ekonomi No Kecamatan Hirarki
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O
P
1 Purworejo I ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ 9
2 Kutoarjo I ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ 10
3 Pituruh II ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ 6
4 Bagelen II ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ 8
5 Purwodadi II ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ 7
6 Butuh III ■ ■ ■ 3
7 Grabag III ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ 7
8 Banyuurip III ■ ■ ■ 3
9 Bener III ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ 6
10 Bayan III ■ ■ ■ ■ 4
11 Gebang IV ■ ■ ■ ■ 4
12 Ngombol IV ■ ■ ■ ■ 4
13 Kaligesing IV ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ 5
14 Loano IV ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ 5
15 Bruno IV ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ 6
16 Kemiri IV ■ ■ ■ ■ 4
Keterangan : (A). Pusat Pemerintahan Kabupaten, (B) Pusat Wilayah Pembangunan, (C) Pusat Pemerintahan Kecamatan (D) Pelayanan Sosisl-Ekonomi Tingkat Kabupaten (E) Pelayanan Sosisl-Ekonomi Tingkat Kecamatan; (F) Pelayanan Sosial-Ekonomi Tingkat Desa; (G) Perdagangan; (H) Jasa; (I) Industri; (J) Pertanian Tanaman pangan; (K) Perkebunan; (L) Perikanan; (M) Peternakan; (N) Kehutanan (O) Pariwisata; (P) Jumlah Fungsi .
Market Center Studies
What are the major trade functions of the region’s marked centers, and how are they link through trade to other regional market centers and the rural areas of the region ?