An Introduction to Carbon Modelling Developing Forestry and Bioenergy Projects within CDM Quito,...
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Transcript of An Introduction to Carbon Modelling Developing Forestry and Bioenergy Projects within CDM Quito,...
An Introduction to Carbon Modelling
Developing Forestry and Bioenergy Projects within CDM
Quito, EcuadorMarch, 2004
Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc.
2
Overview
• Definitions• Reasons for Modelling• System Boundaries• Introduction to Carbon Flows• Generalized Biomass Equations• Non-Biomass LULUCF Emissions• Energy Emissions• Input Parameters• Sensitivity Analysis• Inverse Modelling
Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc.
3
Definitions• Volume (m3)
– Merchantable or total
• Biomass (t)
• Carbon (tC)– 50% of dry biomass
• Carbon Dioxide Equivalence (tCO2e)– Carbon x 44/12
Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc.
4
Definitions• Pool, Stock
• Stock Change biomass (tC)
• Emissions by Sources
• Removals by Sinks
• Fluxes
Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc.
5
Reasons for Modelling
• Forecast of Sequestration• Estimation of Baseline• Effects of Management• Sensitivity Analysis• Selection of Pools to Monitor• Estimation between Measurements• Calibration to Carbon Measurements
– Fine tuning of parameters
Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc.
6
System Boundaries
• Spatial Boundary– The “project boundary” geographically delineates
the afforestation or reforestation project activity under the control of the project participants. The project activity may contain more than one discrete area of land.
– Models, full life-cycle
• Temporal Boundary– CDM (30 years, or 3 times 20 years)– Models, full life-cycle
Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc.
7
The Carbon Cycle
Roots
Trees
Other Plants
Soil
Landfills
Atmosphere
Landfills
Products
RootLitter
Fine LitterCoarse Litter
Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc.
8
Above Ground Tree Biomass
• Volume, V(t)– Growth and yield tables– Merchantable volume
• Expansion, (t)1.2 < < 4.2– Measurements– Tree components (CO2FIX)
• Density, (t) V(t))()(=B(t) tεtρ
Trees
Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc.
9
Yield Curve Example
From Hofstede and Aguirre, 1999
Pinus radiata
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Years
Bio
ma
ss
(t/h
a)
AverageModelled
Density = 0.400 t/m3BEF = 185%
Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc.
10
Root Biomass
• Total Root Biomass, R (t)0.2 < < 0.5
• Fine Root Biomass, r(t)
(R)Φ=r(t)
B(t)=R(t) θ
Roots
Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc.
11
Litter Biomass
• Litter, L– By pool, p
• Litter Input, LI– Portion of biomass,
• Litter Decomposition, LD– Proportional to litter biomass– Dependant on quality, precipitation, temperature
( )PT,Quality,F=
L=LD
B=LI
LD-LI+L=L
p
p1-t
ppt
1-tpp
t
pt
pt
p1-t
pt
δ
δ
η
Fine LitterCoarse Litter
Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc.
12
Litter Decomposition RateLitter Decomposition
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Temperature (deg C)
An
nu
al
De
com
po
sit
ion
P = 400 cmP = 800 cmP = 1000 cm
Adapted from Moore et al., 1999
Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc.
13
Root Litter Biomass
• Root Litter, RL– By pool, p
• Root Litter Input, RI– Portion of root biomass,
• Root Decomposition, RD– Proportional to root biomass– Exponential decay
( )PT,Quality,F=
RL=RD
R=RI
RD-RI+RL=RL
p
p1-t
ppt
1-tpp
t
pt
pt
p1-t
pt
δ
δ
η
RootLitter
Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc.
14
Soil Biomass
• Soil, S• Soil Input, SI
– Portion of decomposing litterand root litter
• Soil Decomposition, SD– Exponential decay ( )nCompositioP,T,F=
D=SD
RDΣ+LDΣ=SI
SD-SI+S=S
p
1-tp
t
1-tp
p1-t
p
pt
tt1-tt
δ
δ
βα
Soil
Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc.
15
Wood Products Biomass• Wood products, W
– By product type, p• Wood Product Input, WI• Wood Product Decomposition, WD
– Proportional to wood product biomass• Leakage • Not formally part of CDM
p1-t
ppt
pt
pt
pt
pt
pt
p1-t
pt
W=WD
Recycled+Harvest=WI
WD-WI+W=W
δ
Products
Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc.
16
Landfill Biomass• Landfilled waste, G
– By landfill type, p
• Landfill Input, GI– From discarded wood products
• Landfill Decomposition, GD– Exponential decay
p1-t
ppt
pt
pt
pt
pt
pt
pt
p1-t
pt
G=GD
Burnt-Recycled-WD=GI
GD-GI+G=G
δ
Landfills
Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc.
17
Non-Biomass EmissionsLULUCF Projects
• Fossil Fuel Consumption on Site– Per hectare for management– Per tonne of wood product at harvest
• Other Non-CO2 Emissions– Changing Water Balance– Use of Fertilizers
Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc.
18
Energy EmissionsBioenergy Projects
• Fossil Fuel Consumption– Per tonne of wood product– Per tonne of waste landfilled– Per tonne of recycled wood product
• Electricity Consumption– Per tonne of wood product– Emission intensity
• Fossil Fuel Displaced by Bioenergy– Appear in baseline
Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc.
19
Input Parameters
• Numerous (> 60)• Measured Directly
– Tree volume, annual litter input, litter decomposition
• Estimated– Harvest proportions, energy parameters
• Modelled from Measurements– Litter and soil biomass
Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc.
20
Sensitivity Analysis
ParametersModels
Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc.
21
P
roba
bilit
y
tC sequestered after 50 years
0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Sensitivity Analysis
Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc.
22
Inverse Problem
ParametersMeasurements
Non-uniqueErrors