An Insight into the Evolution of the US LNG Market · 1.1 1.3 0.2 0.5 1.4 4.9 0.9 9.6 3.1 1.0 0.9...
Transcript of An Insight into the Evolution of the US LNG Market · 1.1 1.3 0.2 0.5 1.4 4.9 0.9 9.6 3.1 1.0 0.9...
An Insight into the Evolution of the US LNG Market
Helena Wisden
Senior Manager Trading
Cheniere Energy, Inc
June 24th, 2011
Forward Looking Statements
This presentation contains certain statements that are, or may be deemed to be, “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1933, as amended. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, included herein are “forward-looking statements.” Included among “forward-looking statements” are, among other things:
statements that we expect to commence or complete construction of a liquefaction facility by certain dates or at all;
statements that we expect to receive authorization from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, or FERC, or the Department of Energy, or DOE, to construct and operate a proposed liquefaction facility by a certain date, or at all;
statements regarding future levels of domestic or foreign natural gas production and consumption, or the future level of LNG imports into North America or exports from the U.S.A., or regarding projected future capacity of liquefaction or regasification facilities worldwide;
statements regarding any financing transactions or arrangements, whether on the part of Cheniere or at the project level;
statements regarding any commercial arrangements marketed or potential arrangements to be performed in the future, including any cash distributions and revenues anticipated to be received;
statements regarding the commercial terms and potential revenues from activities described in this presentation;
statements that our proposed liquefaction facility, when completed, will have certain characteristics, including a number of trains;
statements regarding our business strategy, our business plan or any other plans, forecasts, examples, models, forecasts or objectives, any or all of which are subject to change;
statements regarding estimated corporate overhead expenses; and
any other statements that relate to non-historical information.
These forward-looking statements are often identified by the use of terms and phrases such as “achieve,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “example,” “expect,” “forecast,” “opportunities,” “plan,” “potential,” “project,” “propose,” “subject to,” and similar terms and phrases. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, they do involve assumptions, risks and uncertainties, and these expectations may prove to be incorrect. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation. Our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in “Risk Factors” in the Cheniere Energy, Inc. and Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. Current Reports on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on August 6, 2010, which are incorporated by reference into this presentation. All forward-looking statements attributable to us or persons acting on our behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by these “Risk Factors”. These forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this presentation, and we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.
Agenda
Recent developments in the North
American gas market
Could the USA become a new LNG
supplier?
U.S.A. Shale Gas Resources
EIA (Energy Information
Administration, US Government)
Reality: probably > 3,000 Tcf
EIA (2008)
20 Tcf
EIA (2009)
60 Tcf
EIA (2010)
347 Tcf
EIA (2011)
827 Tcf
U.S.A. Shale Production & Henry Hub Price
Other Barnett
Woodford Fayetteville
Haynesville
Marcellus
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Bcf/d
$-
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$HH Cash
Haynesville
Marcellus
Woodford
Fayetteville
Barnett
Other
Sub-Total
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.9
1.1
1.3
0.2
0.5
1.4
4.9
0.9
9.6
3.1
1.0
0.9
2.0
5.0
0.9
12.9
2000 2009 2010
Annual Shale Gas Production (Bcf/d)
Hurricane
Katrina $147/Bbl
Oil Price
Peak
CA Energy
Crisis
Source: Lippman Consulting, Advanced Resources Intl. (shale production); Platts (HH prices)
Price Signals for Gas Plays
Price sends a message to producers “drill or don’t
drill”
Response depends on two factors:
– Cost of production
– Infrastructure for transportation
U.S.A. Gas Production Growth
26.8 26.6 26.0 25.1 23.0 21.8 20.5 19.8
15.7 17.0 17.8 17.8 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.3
3.0 4.4 6.1 9.3 12.2 14.7 19.125.1
4.84.8
5.45.2
5.2 4.64.8
4.9
50.352.8
55.357.4
59.3 60.363.9
69.1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020
Conventional Tight Gas Shale CBM
Source: Advanced Resources International Inc. (Aug 2010), EIA
71%
Forecast
Bcf/d U.S.A. Natural Gas Production
Unconventional gas = 61% of 2010 natural gas production
Potential 11 Bcf/d new production from unconventional gas 2015 vs 2009 (34%)
Low Production Cost and Vast Infrastructure Low Production Cost and Vast Infrastructure
Enormous UNC gas reserves
Infrastructure: extensive and in place
Production sustainable at ~ $5/MMBtu
Ark
om
a W
oo
dfo
rd
Co
re
Key North American Supply Sources (2015)
Marc
ell
us
Develo
pm
en
t B
reakeven
(U
S$/m
cf)
Pin
ed
ale
Fayett
evil
le
8
7
6
5
4
3
Barn
ett
Co
re
Hayn
esvil
le
Gra
nit
e W
ash
Hz
Eag
le F
ord
Bo
ssie
r L
w
Pic
ean
ce V
all
ey
An
ad
ark
o W
oo
dfo
rd
Pic
ean
ce H
igh
lan
ds
Barn
ett
No
n-c
ore
Ark
om
a W
oo
dfo
rd
No
n-c
ore
Co
tto
n V
all
ey
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Attractive Oil Linked Market Prices
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
UK - NBP US Henry Hub Japan Avg LNG European Gas Contract
$/ MMBtu Regional Natural Gas & LNG Prices
~ 12% – 15%
of Oil Prices
$4.27
$7.39
$11.62
$9.02
Source: PIRA, Platts
Sabine Pass Liquefaction Project
Startup in mid-2015
US DOE Approval received
Up to four liquefaction trains with a
liquefaction capacity of 2 Bcf/d (16 MMt/y)
• Initial Phase to include 2
ConocoPhillips’ Optimized Cascade®
LNG Trains
• About 0.5 Bcf/d each
• Six GE LM2500+ gas turbine driven
refrigerant compressors per train
Highly Successful MOU Process
We have entered into MOU’s with 9
customers for 9.8 mtpa of capacity
commitments
These customers are representative
of the widespread interest in the
project
– Asia, Europe, Americas
– Traders, Utilities, End Users
Targeting 3.5 mtpa of customer
commitments for commercial viability
of each train
Continuing discussions with other
parties focused on processing
capacity, FOB, and DES sales
Delivered Cost Compares Favorably to Pacific Basin Price Formulas
Henry Hub priced LNG delivered cost:
– 115% x Henry Hub price + $2 + shipping cost
Gas production economics effectively caps Henry Hub at ~$6.00 - $6.50
Based on a JCC formula of 14.85% of JCC + $0.75, oil price exposure
becomes capped at ~ $75/bbl
$80 $90 $100
JCC Price $/bbl
DE
S L
NG
Pri
ce
$/M
MB
tu
$12
$14
$16
Poten & Partners Jan ‘10
Low Mid High
Henry Hub $5.00 $6.00 $7.00
FOB price $7.75 $8.90 $10.05
shipping to Asia $2.50 $2.50 $2.50
DES Price $10.25 $11.40 $12.55
JCC @ 0.1485 slope $64.0 $71.7 $79.5
compared to a formula of 14.85% JCC + $0.75
Capacity and LNG Sales Agreements Provide Various Benefits to Buyers
$8,00 $10,00 $12,00 $14,00 $16,00 $18,00 $20,00
HH-indexed Oil-indexed
1. Lower LNG delivered cost: Henry Hub priced LNG delivered cost to Asia is
significantly lower than oil-related long term supply alternatives.
2. Reduced volatility of portfolio cost: Henry Hub price that has a low correlation
to the other price indexes will reduce the volatility of the whole LNG portfolio
procurement cost.
3. Free destination flexibility: The combination of cargoes sold on an FOB basis
with total free destination flexibility and buyer’s right to cancel lifting of cargoes
gives the buyer the ability to arbitrage global natural gas / LNG prices.
4. Economical option: Buyer’s ability to optimize his deliveries by purchasing
replacement cargoes at a lower price if Henry Hub prices rise over world prices,
therefore reducing the overall cost of procurement and risk of Henry Hub
indexation.
Reliable Supply and a Powerful Portfolio Optimization Tool
LNG produced in the United States delivers
– The world’s finest natural gas resources to global consumers
– An exceptional degree of political and legal stability
– And a first-class approach to operations
Once complete, the Sabine Pass liquefaction facility will be one of the most
reliable LNG supply points in the world
Acquiring feed gas from the world’s largest and most liquid natural gas
market also provides some key advantages
– Feed gas can be acquired on a month-to-month basis
– No requirement for long-term supply agreements
– Prices reflect the benefits of the world’s largest and continuously growing underground
storage capacity of over 4 Tcf (113 Bcm)
– World’s largest & most liquid financial market available for hedging
Taken together, adding Henry Hub-indexed LNG to a conventional supply
portfolio adds a new degree of flexibility that should ultimately prove to be at
least as valuable as the current cost benefit