AN IMPROVED INTEGRATED APPROACH FOR OPTIMIZING SHIPPING … PIANC 2017/170928 0850 NCO… · AN...
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AN IMPROVED INTEGRATED APPROACH FOR OPTIMIZING
SHIPPING CHANNEL CAPACITY FOR AUSTRALIAN PORTSTHOR UGELVIG PETERSEN
PHD, MSC
HEAD OF PORTS OF OFFSHORE TECHNOLOGY DEPARTMENT
DHI, DENMARK
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Key port market trends
© DHI
The next 2-4 years will see a surge in vessel sizes
across the world fleet
A very large proportion of the worlds ports will have
to expand capacity accordingly
Port expansion projects often have to comply with
strict environmental legislations
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Channel Capacity Optimization – Quick Overview
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• Incorporates assessment of manoeuvrability and
UKC, sometimes also sedimentation
• Most UKC methods relies on older 2D slender
body methods or empirical equations.
• Manoeuvrability is often assessed through full-
bridge simulators but usually using only a few
simulations
• Combined effects of channel hydrodynamics and
waves are often simplified
• The optimization potential and adopted level of
conservatism and risk is not always made clear
to Channel Operators
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Nonlinear Channel Optimisation Simulator
© DHI
Hydrodynamic/Wave, Wind Modelling
(MIKE21)
Probabilistic Channel Capacity Assessment
(NCOS)
Optimized Channel Capacity Alternatives
Digital Vessel
Library
Navigation
Simulations
(SIMFLEX)
Integrated Channel Capacity Assessment
Environmental Forcing
Vessel Response
Measured Data
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Flexible Mesh 2D/3D Hydrodynamic Model covering the
entire port
• Separate swell penetration and local wind
wave generation
• Detailed flow patterns at
berth scale
• Compatible with high-end
full bridge simulators
• Multi-year hindcasts in
days/weeks
• 7-day forecasts in hours
Environmental Forcing
Surface Gravity Waves
2D/3D CurrentsDisplacement (ship) Waves
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Non-Linear Channel Operability Simulator (NCOS)
• 3D boundary element method (2nd Order) that implicitly accounts for the forward speed and water depth.
• Vessel UKC response comparable to high-end Full-Bridge Simulators.
• Deterministic treatment of long term varying tide, current, wind and wave fields.
• Probabilistic treatment of wave response allowance
• Integrated Risk Evaluation at Port Level
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2
0
½( )
( ) 1 1
NZ
m zQ Z e
dSm d
n
n
0
)(
Z = SWD + Tide – (T + Tsquat + T(2)) - Z
𝑃𝑒𝑥𝑐 = 1 − 1 − 𝑄𝑡1 1 − 𝑄𝑡2 … 1 − 𝑄𝑡𝑁
N = t/Tz
2nd Order Set-down
Safety threshold
Vessel Response
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Integrated Channel Capacity Assessment
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30 ves 1 Year 5 years 10 years 20 years
zMin < 0. 5 m 2.5% 13% 32% 49%
Touch bottom nil 0.03 % 0.05% 0.15%
30 inbound 8500 TEU vessels per month
Integrated Channel Capacity Assessment
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A full-scale UKC Monitoring Campaign
Significant wave height 10:30 am 6th June 2016 as predicted
by MIKE 21 SW
Example:
Inbound container vessel
Safmarine Makutu, 06 June 2016.
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Case Study 1: Port of Brisbane
• 90 km long Navigational Channel
• Declared depth down to 14 m to 15 m LAT
• Need to accommodate 8500 TEU Containers
• Operability based on 36 months of detailed
hindcast
• More than 2.2 million unique NCOS vessel transits
• Full-bridge SIMFLEX used to optimize corners,
swing basin and quantify effect of improved Tug-
Boat operations
Outcome:
Subject to moderate optimization, the existing channel is
capable of accommodating 8500 TEUs up to 13.6 m draft
(subject to op. UKC windows)
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Case Study 2: Port of Geelong
• 27 km Channel length with declared depth down to
12.3 m
• Safe Access required for 12 m draft Suezmax
Tankers
• The section “The Cut” provides significant capacity
challenge
• 30 days of environmental hydrodynamic hindcast
• 2,700 NCOS simulations undertaking
• SIMFLEX used to identify constraints due to bank
effects and high wind induced drift
Outcome:Subject to moderate revising speed profiles and
safety threshold it was deemed safe to
accommodate 12 m draft vessels in existing
channel
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Approach Summary
© DHI
Highly accurate integrated assessment frame for
channel capacity optimization
Reduces unnecessary dredging costs and
environmental impacts
Provides a transparent risk profile
at both vessel and Port level
Identical Framework for strategic planning support
and operational forecasting
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© DHI
Thor Ugelvig Petersen, Head of Department – Ports and Offshore Technology
DHI
Thanks for your Attention