AMERICAN INSTITUTE FOR DECISION SCIENCES

PROCEEDINGS

Twelfth Annual Meetingof the

American Institute for Decision Sciences

Las Vegas, Nevada

November 5-7, 1980

Volume 2

Proceedings CoordinatorJames C. Hershauer

Arizona State University

Program ChairpersonRonald J. Ebert

University of Missouri-ColumbiaUB/TIB Hannover- 89

119 218 402

TABLE OF CONTENTSVolume 2

PRODUCTION/OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT

SymposiumVehicle Routing and Scheduling—The State of the Art 1

William E. Hardy, Jr.

Production PlanningA Comparison of Multiple Criteria Solutions of Large-Scale Flow Shop Scheduling Problems 3

Arthur W. Smith and Edward F. Stafford, Jr.The Relationship Between Product Structure and Multistage Lot Sizes: A Preliminary Analysis 6

Lee J. Krajewski, Larry P. Ritzman, and Danny S. WongProduction Planning for Master Slab Casters in the Steel Industry 9

Mark A. Vonderembse

SymposiumMaster Planning 12

Donald W. Fogarty

SymposiumProduction and Operations Management Curriculum Innovations: A Symposium 13

Allan D. Schuster

LogisticsAn Allocation Technique with Tradeoffs Between Total Cost and Arc Flows 15

Charles J. Teplitz

Estimating and Auditing Aggregate Inventory Levels at Multiple Stocking Points 18

Ronald A. Ballou

MRP as a Multilevel Distribution Status and Planning Model 20

John G. Carlson, Roger B. Glaser, Warren J. Erkson, and Karl E. Dickel

SymposiumOperations Management and the Economics of Energy: A Symposium 23

James A. Fitzsimmons and Robert S. Sullivan

Organizational Issues in P/OM

Describing a Production Management System, or, "The Blind Men and the Elephant" 26

Michael C. Burstein and Mariann Jelinek

Service OperationsA Requirements Planning System for the Space Shuttle Operations Schedule 29

Earle Steinberg, William B. Lee, and Basheer M. Khumawala

Determining Electronic Point of Sale Cash Register Requirements 32

Michael J. Maggard

Managing Aircraft Modification Overhaul Production: A Simulation Approach 35

Thomas D. Clark, Jr., and Woodrow Fulton

Symposium

Conceptualizing and Implementing Multiple Criteria Decisions in Production Management 38

John J. Bernardo

Project Management

Auditing the Project 39

Herbert F. Spirer and A. G. Hulvey

Control Variate Simulation of Stochastic Project Networks 41

Robert S. Sullivan and Jack C. Hayya

Multi-Project Scheduling: Categorization of Heuristic Rules Performance Under Unequal Delay Penalties 43

Ibrahim Kurtulus

Process DesignStochastic Flow Line Architecture: A Systematic Assessment of the Effects

of Compound Imbalance Upon Performance 46

William W. Williams

Designing Mixed-Model Assembly Lines 49

John F. Kottas and Hon-Shiang Lau

iii

The Effect of Buffer Storage Size and Unbalanced Allocation of Stochastic Task Times

on Unpaced Production Line Efficiency 52

Timothy L. Cmunt and William C. Perkins

Material Requirements PlanningOn Auditing a Requirements Planning System 55

Satish Mehra and M. Jerry Reid

Health Service Operations

Disaggregation in Detail Scheduling of Part-Time Employees for Multiple Service Locations 57

Stephen E. Bechtold

The Merits of Group Purchasing in the Hospital Industry 60

William O. Cleverley, Paul C. Nutt, and Jon H. Carlson

The Applications of Statistical Control Charts to Monitor Hospital Utilization ., 63Robert B. Fetter and Jean L. Freeman

PUBLIC/NONPROFIT ADMINISTRATION

Workshop

Strategies and Tools for Increasing Productivity in Higher Education: Academic Administration Workshop 66

George R. Bateman and Carl R. Adams

Public/Nonprofit Sector Programs and Policies

Social Program Evaluation Revised: The WIC Program 67Paul C. Nutt and Mitchel Wheeler

A Simulation Approach to Policy Analysis in Public-Sector Decisional Structures 70

Thomas D. Clark, Jr., and William A. Shrode

Optimal Investigation Policies Under Selected PSRO Utilization Review Procedures:

A Profile Analysis of Feasible Parameter Sets, 73

David A. Dittman

Faculty Reward Systems and Rank Distribution

A Multivariate Approach to Analyzing Faculty Reward Systems in Institutions of Higher Education 76Louis R. Concordia and James R. Burns

Public/Nonprofit Applications of Goal ProgrammingEducational Output Goals and Implementation Strategies in Public School Finance 79

Gary R. Reeves, James R. Sweigart, and Elchanan Cohn

Goal Programming Applied to Municipal Government Pension Systems 82

F. Theodore Helmer and Shirley F. Olson

An Integer Goal Programming Model for Decision Making in the University Setting 85Arthur J. Keown and Bernard W. Taylor III

Commitment, Authority, and Bargaining in the Public/Nonprofit Sector

Public Sector Multilateral Collective Bargaining: An Indifference Analysis Approach 88Terry L. Leap and Terence A. Oliva

Organizational Commitment: Interrelationships with Job Characteristics, Job Satisfaction,Professional Behavior, and Organizational Climate 91

Harold P. Welsch and Helen LaVan

SymposiumA Symposium Presenting Papers on: Effective Decisions in Police Administration 94

John M. Jermier

Quantitative Applications (o the Public/Nonprofit Sector

Predictive Sociographic Modeling and Rural Food Stamp Participation 97E. Garland Keesling and R. M. Cosenza

Item Analysis Weights vs. Discriminate Analysis Weights: Model Building and Model Testing 100Warren S. Blumenfeld, Dwight Tabor, and Aprile M. Holland

Attitudinal and Behavioral Issues in Public/Nonprofit AdministrationA Combined Leave Benefit System for the Control of Absenteeism in Health Care Organizations 103

George O. Schneller, IV, Richard E. Kopelman, and John J. Silver, Jr.

Operant Leadership-Satisfaction Relationships Across Hospital Occupational Levels 106Kent E. Curran and William Higginbotham

iv

An Investigation of the Generalizability of Leader Reward Behavior in Public Sector Agencies 109Kent E. Curran, Jerry A. Wallin, and Michael H. Peters

Economic Issues in Public/Nonprofit Administration

A Theory of Subsidy—Efficiency in Mass Transportation 112

Darold T. Barnum and John M. Gleason

Symposium

Politics and the Implementation of Computerized Information Systems in Local Government 115Janet Fulk Schriesheim

QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES/METHODOLOGY

Symposium

System Dynamics: Philosophy, Technology, and Application 118J. Kenneth White

Tutorial

A Tutorial on Latent Trait Theory 121

John D. Arnold

Integer ProgrammingFixed Charge Transportation Problems and Equivalent Integer Programming 123

S. Selcuk Erenguc and A. Victor Cabot

Improving Suboptimal Solutions to Multiconstrained Knapsack Problems 126

Charles S. Parker and Harlan B. Stenn

Solving Mixed Integer Programming Problems with Khachian's Ellipsoid Technique 128

F. Robert Jacobs and Basheer M. Khumawala

Scheduling Problems

Project Scheduling with Resource Constraints: A Goal Programming Approach 131Alan H. Kvanli and James J. Buckley

An Algorithm for Single Machine, Two Due Dates Weighted Tardiness Scheduling Problem 134

Kang PengCritical Path Analysis for Stochastic Project Network Models 136

John E. Hebert

Models and Decision Support Systems

A Model for Synergistic Business Mergers with Case Study Applications 139

Robert W. Milik, Jr.

A Microcomputer-Based Decision Analysis Support System 142

Charles R. Margenthaler and Bruce M. Morlan

A Simplified Multi-attribute Scoring Model, 145

James A. Pope

Probability and Regression,

Method of Moments Estimators for Stable Distributions 148

Bruce D. Fielitz and James P. Rozelle

Statistics and SchedulingThe Ambiguity of Statistical Analysis of Random Number Generators—

An Experiment Using the Midproduct Generator 151

Susan L. Solomon

A Strategy for Contingency Table Analysis 154

Ronald D. Anderson, Franklin Acito, and James G. Williams

Multi-tour Scheduling for Service Technicians 157

Larry E. Shirland

Mathematical ProgrammingAdvanced Starts in a Primal-Dual Cutting Plane Algorithm for All-Integer Programming 160

Larry M. Austin, Parviz Ghandforoush, and Michael E. Hanna

A Priori vs. A Posteriori Measures of Aggregation Error in the Transportation Problem 163

Nancy K. Keith, Bruce A. McCarl, and Gordon P. WrightA Multiobjective Model for the Computer Chargeout 166

Charles R. Franz and Sang M. Lee

v

Multivariate Methods

Using the Linear Model to Possibly Salvage Some Main Effect Contrasts When Interaction Is Present 169

Stephen P. Ramocki

Factor Analysis Rules-of-Thumb Revisited: Old Traditions and Some New Ideas 172

Buddy L. Myers and David J. Skaret

Determining Member Perceptions of Organization Structure: A Multidimensional Scaling Approach 175

Edward K. Marlow

STATISTICS/DECISION THEORY

Workshop

Decision Sciences and Gambling 178

Jeff Horen

Workshop:

Exploratory Data Analysis—Lessons from John Tukey 179

Brian L. Joiner and Brian Schott

Statistical AnalysisHandling Unequal Cell Frequencies in Two-Way ANOVAs 181

Ken Black and J. B. SpaldingTwo Further Refinements of Distribution-Free Discriminant Analysis 184

Patrick W. Shannon

The Use of Variance Reduction Techniques in RSM Simulation Studies 187

Belva J. Cooley and Ernest C. Houck

Decision Theory I

An Analysis of the Classical and Bayesian Approaches to Sample Size Determination 190

James W. Gentry and Asavin Chintakananda

Motivational Bias in Probability Assessments 193

Robert C. Pickhardt

Empirical Bayesian Quality Control 196

Rajesh K. Kakar and John T. Sennetti

Insurance for Irreplaceable Commodities: A Decision Theoretic Approach 198

Fereidoon (Perry) Sioshansi and Andrew B. Whinston

Decision Theory II

A Tutorial on Interactive Statistical Analysis 201

George R. Bateman

Comparison of Useful Nonparametric TechniquesAn Analysis of the Effects of Weighting in Linear, Predictive Models 202

W. C. Buss

Subject Response Error in a Lexicographic Model 205

Douglas R. Emery, Francis D. Tuggle, and Andrew D. Luzi

On the Indeterminacy of Von Neumann-Morgenstern Utility Functions 208

Paul J. H. Schoemaker

Comparison of Useful Nonparametric Techniques

Using k Sample Tests to Detect Ordered Treatment Effects: A Comparative Studyof Fourteen Nonparametric Procedures 211

Mark L. Berenson

Measuring Reliability of Criterion-Based Tests 214

Shulamith T. Gross

Distribution Free Procedures for the Analysis of Complete Blocks 217

Ronald L. Iman and W. J, Conover

Distribution Free Procedures for Multiple Comparisons 218

Ronald L. Iman and W. J. Conover

A Comparison of the Power-Efficiency of Selected Two-Sample Nonparametric Tests 219John E. Nixon and Betty Yantis

Bivariate Decision Rules for Comparing Populations Using Rank Tests 222

V. Lyman Gallup,

vi

Optimization in Statistics

Practical Experiences in Solving Nonlinear Regression Problems Via Nonlinear Programming 223

D. M. Himmelblau

Mathematical Programming in Cluster Analysis 226

George Diehr and Hugo Moortgat

An Optimal Simple Percential Estimator of the Weibull Shape Parameter

When All Three ParametersAre Unknown 229Stelios H. Zanakis and Nancy R. Mann

A Bicriteria Model for Acceptance Sampling in Quality Control 231

Herbert Moskowitz, A. Ravindran, and Gary Klein

Tutorial

Applications of Discrete Discriminant Analysis 234Matthew Goldstein and William R. Dillon

Forecasting

Forecasting Daily Demand at a State Trout Park Using ARIMA/Box-Jenkins Methodology 237

Stephen A. DeLurgio

Adaptive Robust Procedures as Estimation Technique for Business Data Analysis 240

Mir Masoom Ali, Frederick R. Forst, and Nazim U. Ahmed

Vector Autoregression vs. Box-Jenkins Techniques in Regional Economic Forecasting:A Comparative Evaluation 243

Robert I. Mann, Lee R. McPheters, and Don E. Schlagenhauf

Probability Models

The Power Gamma: An Alternative Approach to Monotonic Association Measurement 246

David Krackhardt

Lower Multinomial Bound for Overstatement or Understatement Errors 249

Robert Plante, John Neter, and Robert A. Leitch

STUDENT PAPERS SESSION

Computer Project Selection: Process, Techniques and Constraints 251

N. Paule Melone and T. J. Wharton

Designing Management Decision-Aid Programs 254

Daniel Power and Harris Zwerling

THURSDAY TOPIC TABLE SESSION 18

Table 1—Decision Making in OrganizationsCommunication and Group Risk

,257

Lawrence A. Tanzi

Brain Dominance and Managerial Decision Making 258

Bernadette J. Pian and Elmore R. Alexander

Leadership Models of Performance Evaluation Decisions: An Empirical Applicationof Within and Between Analysis 259

Francis J. Yammarino, Fred Dansereau, Jr., Joseph A. Alutto, and Steven E. Markham

A Comparison of High Motive Males and Females on Persuasibility in Group Decision-Making 260

James Belohlav and William LaFollette

Table 2—Probability, Computers, and Information Systems

Optimization of Customer Service Variables by Nonlinear Mathematical Programming Techniques 261

John Rogers and Roger PfaffenbergerUse ofa Liapunov Function for Establishment of a Bound on the Expected Queue Size in the M/M/°° Queue 262

Peter M. Ellis

A Simple Method for Aggregating Traffic Flow Networks > 263

Fong-Lieh Ou

A Survey of Computer Skills Requirements in MBA Programs 264

Henry H. Beam and Thomas A. Carey

Management Informatics and Organization Encephalization 265

Mohamed H. Hosny and Michael J. C. Martin

vii

Table 3—Issues in the Effective Use of Consumer Research

Reduction of Halo Effect in Rating Scales: Some Marketing Implications 266

Ram Kesavan and Samuel H. Himes, Jr.

Market Segmentation via Nonmetric Regression 267

Roger Gates and Bob Brobst

New Product Planning and Forecasting Under VaryingMarket and Economic Conditions 268

Kenneth D. Lawrence and Gary R. Reeves

Consumer Control of Their P.rice Index: An Economic Approach 269

Huey Latham, Jr., and Dean E. Allmon

Ridge Regression Application to Non-orthogonal Marketing Data 270

Rajinder S. Arora and Ronald L. Vaughn

Table 4—Evaluation of Teaching and LearningThe Effects of MBA Admissions Criteria and Self-Selection on Career-Related

Characteristics of MBA Students 271

Eleanor W. Jordan and Marianne Seiler

An Objective Evaluation Scheme for Subjective Examinations 272

Hugh M. Cannon and George R. Cannon

An Experimental Investigation ofthe Impact of Grades on Student Evaluation in a Managerial Finance Course 273

P. Krishnakumar, T. A. Chilsholm, and J. P. Clay

An Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Televised Lectures 274

John Hanke and Arthur Reitsch

Quantitative and Computer Systems Majors in Accredited and Nonaccredited Business Programs 275

Leonard J. Kazmier

Table 5—Financial Management

An Investigation of Profit Impact Relative to Company and Industrial Characteristics 276

Jerry L. Wall and Henry E. Metzner

A Simulation Model for the Multi-stage Capital Investment Decisions 277

M. K. Rajaraman and Scott T. Turney

Selecting a Bid for a Known Quantity 278

Howard A. Plotkin

Estimating the Costs of Misclassifying Retail Credit Risks 279

Charles W. Caldwell, James W. Gentry, and James J. Miller

Case Study Comparisons of Two Discrete Time Period Cash Management Models 280

Steven G. Flagg and Peter A. Pinto

THURSDAY TOPIC TABLE SESSION 35

Table 1—Issues in Organizational Behavior: An Overview

Social Comparison Processes and Task Design: A Laboratory Experiment 281

E. Allen Slusher and Ricky W. Griffin

Organizational Politics: Toward an Integration of Theory and Practice, 282

Donald J. Vredenburgh

Determinants of Managerial Perceptions of MBO Effectiveness 283

Robert Ford and Frank McLaughlin

Conceptualizing the Role Conflict Role Ambiguity Literature 284

W. Alan Randolph and Angelo S. DeNisi

The Effects of Sex of Rater on Process and Perceived Accuracy of Performance Appraisals 285

Richaurd R. Camp and P. Nick Blanchard

Table 2—Multilevel Lot Sizing

Computational Comparison of Optimal and Heuristic Lot Sizing Approachesfor the Multi-level Production Inventory Problem 286

H, Albert Napier and Earle SteinbergOn the Use of Marginal Holding Costs in Multi-stage Lot-Sizing 287

Urban Wemmerlov

Multi-level Lot Sizing: An Experimental Analysis 288

F. Robert Jacobs and Basheer M, Khumawala

The Effects of Demand Pattern on Requirements Planning Lot Sizing Methods 289

Stephen H. Goodman, Ralph E. Janaro, and Donald L. Brechtel

viii

Table 3—Selected Topics in Public/Nonprofit Administration

Residential Energy Management: An Empirical Study 290

Betty Yantis, John E. Nixon, and William J. CorneyGoal Probing: A New Approach to Public Policy Analysis 291

William G. Ludwin and Thomas L. Guthrie

Segmentation of Potential Enlistees for the Military Services 292

Irvin D. Reid

Startup Management in Health Maintenance Organizations 293

Nicholas Baloff and Mary Jane Budenstein

Earthquakery or -Quackery: The Art ofPredicting Cataclysm 294

Jerome Selman and Victor Selman

Table 4—New Ideas in TeachingAn Entire Decision Sciences Course 295

Leon Winer

Task Definition and Test Performance: A Classroom Experiment 296

Joanne M. Klebba

An Effective, Dynamic G.N.P. Forecasting Model for the Classroom 297

George L. Marrah, Dale D. Pletcher, and Arthur N. Jensen

Target Group Analysis: A Practical Exercise for Involving Students in Research-Oriented Decision Making 298

Hugh M. Cannon

Achieving Interdisciplinary Integration Using a Highly Disciplined Problem Solving Procedure

in Analyzing Business Policy Cases 299

James E. Weir

Table 5—MIS Performance and Evaluation

Factors Affecting CBIS Performance 300

Hugh J. Watson and Ali H. Mansour

Evaluations Within the Information System Development Life Cycle 301

Scott Hamilton and Jim McKeen

The Role of Computerized Literature Search Systems on the Transfer of Scientific and Technical Information..,

302

Paul D. Berger and Arthur Gerstenfeld '

Adequate Documentation for Systems and Programs 303

Asad Khailany and Laura Khailany

Computer Facility Centralization/Decentralization: A Multicriteria Analysis Model 304

Sang M. Lee and Susan J. Wilkins

THURSDAY TOPIC TABLE SESSION 53

Table 1—Looking at Job Satisfaction, Leader Behavior, and Organizational Climate

Psychometric Properties of the Job Descriptive Index (JD1) 305

Angelo J. Kinicki and Chester A. Schriesheim

A Comparison of the Job Satisfaction of Full-Time and Seasonal Employees 306

Timothy T. Serey and Anson Seers

Climate: An Individual, Group and Organizational Perspective 307

Michael A. Abelson and R. H. George Field

Factor Structure Analysis of the Leader Reward Behavior Questionnaire 308

Kent E. Curran and Ronald D. Johnson

Table 2—Industrial Applications of OM Models

Financial Decision Model for Chemical Plant Operations 309

David L. Eldredge and Bob Holdman

Goal Programming Established Priorities for the Conventional Ammunition Production Base 310

Warren J. Boe, Jeffrey Horen, and Douglas Kahl

Estimating Production Costs for State of the Art Technology in the Helicopter Industry 311

J. J. Gilliland and C. F. Bimmerle

A GPSS Continuous Process Scheduling Model: An Empirical Example 312

Kenneth D. Ramsing, David M. Dilts, and Ilchoo Chung

Inventory Management in a Cottage Industry 313

B. P. Lingaraj

IX

Table 3—Decision Analysis Theory and ApplicationRisk Analysis in Competitive Bidding 314

David W. Pentico

An Expanded Algorithm for Decision Analysis Trees 315

Charles L. Hubbard and Fred J. Ganoe

A Relative Area Approach to Subjective Probability Assessment 316

P. George Benson, Edna M. White, and Urton L. Anderson

A Decision Theoretic Framework for Strategic Legal Decisions 317

W. E. Pinney and John V. Dowdy, Jr.

Fussy Outranking Relation in Multiple Criteria Decision Making 318

Jean M. Martel and Gilles d'Avignon

Table 4—Research in Advertising and PricingDemand Effects in Evaluation Research 319

Robert E. Smith

The "Profile Distance" Approach to Media Selection—How Well Does It Work? 320

Hugh M. Cannon and Kurt B. AugsburgerWhat Is Abusive Advertising? 321

Hugh M. Cannon and Jan C. Jennings

The Price-Quality Relationship: An Experimental Study 322

David J. Lill and Elliott S. Willman

How Important Is Price in Industrial Markets: A Review and Conceptual Framework 323

Michael V. Laric

Table S—MIS Applications

Decision Support Systems for Portfolio Management 324

James F. Courtney, Jr., and Robert Minch

Retail Information Management Systems (RIMS): Establishing the Key to Retail Success 325

Douglas J. Lincoln and A. Coskun Samli

Computerized Church Management Information Systems .• 326

Engming Lin and Mesbah Ahmed

Mini Computer-Based Information System Rescues Insurance Premium Finance System 327

Vincent E. Cangelosi and Walter G. Rudd

Decentralized Decision Support Systems—A Blood Banking Example 328

Kenneth E. Kendall

THURSDAY TOPIC TABLE SESSION 69

Table 1—Personnel Decisions and Managerial Behavior

Employee Selection Within the Law 329

Stephen Rubenfeld and Michael Crino

Leadership Properties and Span of Supervision: A Study in Fast-Food Restaurants 330

Foad Derakshan

Investigating the Relationship Between Good Managers, Presidents, and Presidential Candidates 331

D. Anthony Butterfield, Gary N, Powell, and Barry Z. Posner

Table 2—Quantitative Applications to Public/Nonprofit Administration

The Discrimination of Successful Ballet Dancers with Math Programming 332

William V. Gehrlein and Barbara A. Johnson

A Methodology for the Estimation of the Job Vacancies for the Inexperienced College Graduates 333

Jae Hyon SongNew Insight into Forecasting Engineering Enrollment 334

Donald A. Yale

System Dynamic Simulation Model for Policy Analysis of a Gonorrhea Control Program 335

Ramesh K. Shukla and Yasar A. Ozcan

Design of Optimal Water Distribution and Treatment Systems for Large Urban Areas:

An Application of Nonlinear Transportation Algorithms 336

Keith E. Boles, David E. Pingry, and Timothy Shaftel

Table 3—Statistical ApplicationsPilot Performance Prediction and Selection for Air-to-Air Combat 337

Dwight W. Polk and Carl Gooding

x

Blackjack: A Comparative Evaluation of "Simple" Player Strategies 338

Richard J. PenleskyA Note on the Effect of Attitudinal Measures in Multivariate Classification 339

Forrest S. Carter

Detection, Inference and the Arms Race 340

Raymond DaceyEnhancements for the Interpretation of Overlaps and Differences Among Groups 341

Collin J. Watson

Table 4—Surveys and Exploratory Data Analysis

Exploratory Data Analysis: A Tool for the Decision Maker 342

Herbert F. SpirerAn Investigation of Response Quality in a Mail Survey 343

W. L. Lett and A. A. Armenakis

How Long Should the Telephone Ring? Minimizing Inter-Interview Time in Phone Surveys 344

James B. Wilcox and Raymond J. Smead

The Nonresponse Problem in Salesforce Surveys 345

Lawrence B. Chonko and James B. Wilcox

Response-Shift: Internal Validity ofSelf-Report Measures 346

Norval F. Pohl

Table 5—Using the Decision Sciences in Education

Statistics Baptism: Sprinkling or Total Immersion? 347

John E. KnightThe Perils of Input Data Analysis for Simulation—Some Teaching Tools 348

Susan L. Solomon

Factors Influencing Students' Perceived Desirability of Majors in Marketing and Accounting ,349

James F. Gaertner, Willbann D. Terpening, and Robert E. Pitts

A Model to Accommodate Additional Students in Closed Core Courses in a Business School 350

Albert E. Drake

Table 6—Financial Institutions, Marketings, and Price Indices

Growth in Savings Customers: More from Current, Rather Than New, Customers 351

James W. Gentry, L. Lee Manzer, and Alvin C. Burns

Lender Risk and Loan Valuation 352

Michael Holland and Thomas HindelangStock Price Changes and Interest Rates 353

John R. Brick and Kelly Price

Uncertainty in Price Indices , 354

Jack C. Hayya, Erwin M. Saniga, and Ronny A. Schaul

FRIDAY TOPIC TABLE SESSION 18

Table 1—Economic Issues in Public/Nonprofit Administration

Efficiency and Effectiveness in Social Service Agencies ,355

Barry Keating and Maryann O'Hagan Keating

Rate of Return on R& D Expenditures: A Comparison ofU.S. and U.K. Drug Industries 356

Susan A. Simmons, S. Cabell Shull, and Mickey C. Smith

Strategy for Investigating Government Contracting-Out Abuses and Cost Overruns 357

Shu S. Liao and Davis L. Chang

Segmenting the Philanthropy Market: An Investigation of Time Versus Money Donation Behavior

of Adult Males to Nonprofit Organizations '. 358

Ugur Yavas and Glen Riecken

Table 2—Inventory Theory

Large Multi-Product Single Facility Lot Size Scheduling 359

Lanny A. Karns and Lloyd A, Swanson

Static Inventory Models and the Rate of Return 360

Edmond L. D'Ouville, C. Richard Houston, and T. Hillman Willis

Dynamic Inventory Model, Under Uncertainty 361

Yitshak Dayan

XI

Determining Buffer Levels in Material Requirements Planning 362

Avijit Banerjee and Erwin M. Saniga

Multi-item Single Facility Capacitated Production Scheduling with Variable Demands 363

Omer A. Aras and Lloyd A. Swanson

Lumpy Freight Costs in the EOQ Problem 364

Donald C. Aucamp

Table 3—Developments in Consumer Behavior Research

Understanding and Measuring Changes in Consumer Behavior Over Time 365

Wesley J. Johnston and Martha Cooper

Energy Conserving Behavior and Consumer Decision Processes: The Case of Solar Energy Adopters 366

Ronald Rubin and Duane Davis

Correlates of Purchase-Related Parent-Child Conflict 367

V. Kanti Prasad, Anees A. Sheikh, and Tanniru R. Rao

Consumer Perceptions of Domestic vs. Imports 368

Chem Narayana, T. R. Rao, and G. M. Naidu

The Relationship of Sex and Age to Attitudes Toward the Use of Models in Travel Advertising 369

Ken W. McCleary

Table 4—MIS Design and Implementation

Administrative vs. Technical Variables in MIS Design Strategies: A Perspective for Systems Analysis 370

Stephen R. Ruth

Design and Development of a Mini-computer Interactive Data Base Management System (MIDBMS) 371

Mohammed H. Omar

Impacts ofthe Information System Post Audit 372

Scott Hamilton and Norm Chervany

Conceptualization of Multicriteria Record Segmentation Problem in Large Shared Data Bases 373

Lori Franz and Arun Sen

Impact of Data Management on Organizational Decision Making 374

Daniel J. Power

FRIDAY TOPIC TABLE SESSION 35

Table 1—Marketing Applications

Adopters and Rejectors of Off-Site Banking Services 375

Stanley Arbeit, Joseph G. Glynn III, and Alan G. Weinstein

A Managerially-Relevant Profile of Debit Card Users 376

Elizabeth C. Hirschman

Service Segmentation: An Increasingly Important Dimension of Bank Marketing 377

Dub Ashton and Maclyn L. Clouse

Technology and Retailing: Policy Issues and Implications of Scanner Technology 378

Michael K. Mills

Proactive, Normative Retail Strategy: The Caseof Urban Revitalization 379

Elizabeth C. Hirschman

Table 2—Emerging Issues: Surveying Ibe P/OM Environment

Implications of the Degree of Use of Quantitative Methods and Computers in the Motor Carrier Industry 380

David L. Shrock and Lonnie L. Ostrom

Behavioral Dimensions in POM Occupations 381

Joseph R. Biggs, Thomas E. Callarman, Gerry L. DeSanctis, and Vincent A. Mabert

Small Business: Virgin Territory for the Application of P/OM Concepts 382

Brooke Saladin and Frank Hoy

Network Techniques in Aerospace R&D Management 383

Edward J. Dunne, Jr., and Lawrence J. Klementowski

How to Organize Purchasing as a Profit Center 384

Ross R, Reck, Brian G. Long, and Neal W. Beckman

Table 3—Attitudes and Behaviors in the Public/Nonprofit Sector

Teaching According to the Gospel of the Student Godfather 385

George E. Stevens

xii

A Discriminant Analysis of Erroneous Damage Perceptions of Residents

in Areas Contiguous to the Argo Merchant Oil Spill 386Allen Rappaport and Louis H. Zincone, Jr.

Universities and the Hispanic Americans: A Survey of Executive Perceptions in the Midwest 387Rene V. Elicano

An Empirical Examination of the Motivational Requirements for Organizational Changein a Governmental Organization 388

Sherman A. Timmins

The Impact of Organization Size on the Nature of School Superintendents' Work 389Robert S. Bussom, Lars L. Larson, and William M. Vicars

Table 4—Using the Computer in TeachingThe Use of Interactive Computer Programs in Security Analysis and Portfolio Management 390

William B. Riley and Austin H. Montgomery

Microcomputer-Based Simulation: Demonstrating Queueing Dynamics 391

John M. Anderson

Computer Assisted Instruction: The Formulation and Solution of LPs 392Clement Psenicka

A Computer Simulation Model for Teaching Intermediate Macroeconomics 393

John E. Silvia

When the Computer Speaks, Students Listen 394Richard L. Kerns

Table 5-~Investment Issues

Bull and Bear Market Betas; A Second Look 395

Carl Schweser and Doug Kahl

The Performance and Reliability of Selected Technical Stock Market Indicators 396Robert W. Milik, Jr.

Optimal Systematic Withdrawal Strategies 397

William V. Gehrlein and Thomas H. Mclnish

The Market's Assimulation of Unfunded Pension Costs 398

Robert S. Kemp, Jr., William D. Nichols, and Timothy W. O'Keefe

Prediction ofMarket Value of a Residential Real Estate Property , 399

Jayanta K. Bandyopadhyay and Bratati Bandyopadhyay

FRIDAY TOPIC TABLE SESSION 53

Table 1—Issues in Organizational Analysis and Intervention

The Question of Training as Part of an Organizational Development Intervention: Analysis and Application 400

S. D. Inderlied

The Impact of Organizational Structural Features on Individual Motivation (Abstract) 401

M. B. Conti

Coming to Grips with the Intervention Process 402

Alan C. Filley and Larry E. Pate

An Empirical Study of Problem-Solving Technologies and Conflict-Handling Behavior Modes 403

Michael N. Chanin and Harris J. Shapiro

Table 2—Decision Models in P/OM

A Comparison of Triangular and Beta Distributions as Network Activity Time Models 404

James H. Macomber, Mohammad Ahmadi, and Lawrence P. Ettkin

Justifying Component Part Standardization 405

David A. Collier

A Cost-Structure Sensitivity Analysis of Three Inventory Models for Uncertain Demand,

406

Howard W. Prout

A Decision-Model to Select the Best of the Available Plant Sizes for Capacity-AdditionUnder Linearly Growing Demand Situation 407

Sumer C. Aggarwal

Enthalpy Factors in Production Facilities Decisions 408

Edward F. Thode and James B. Shannon, Jr.

Table 3—Statistics and Subjective Evaluation

Alternative Models for Time Adjustment of Property Values 409

Donald N. Steinnes

xni

The Effects of Data Collection Method on the Recovery of Class and Continuous Variation

in Multidimensional Scaling Solutions 410

Marie Adele Humphreys

Subjective Probability in Enrollment Forecasting 411

Douglas A. Lind

Testing Governmental Energy Policy on Automobiles: A Disaggregate Approach 412

Rodney L. Carlson and Gary C. Pickett

Aggregating Expert Evaluations—A Comparison ofTwo Composition Methods 413

Ram Narasimhan

Table 4—Statistical TheoryA Hypothesis Test for Homogeneity 414

William V. Gehrlein

On Obtaining Least Square Estimates Not Depending on All the Given Data 415

H. Munick and H. Nagel

Convergence to Normality for Stratefied Sampling Plans 416

Kenneth Gordon and Donald Plane

Small, Zero and Missing Frequencies in Contingency Tables 417

Gene Iverson and John E. Powell

Table 5—Improving the Effectiveness of Marketing Mix Decisions

Product Life Cycle: A Synthesis of Recent Modeling Developments 418

Rajinder S. Arora and Ronald L. VaughnProduct Positioning—Does It Really Work the Way We Say It Does? 419

Hugh M. Cannon and Gregory E. Lechner

Surrogate Measurement of User Perception of Service Delivery 420

Kurt J. Engemann and Victor K. Len

The Declining Pattern of Consumer Credit Usage in the Gasoline Service Station:

Is the End of an Era in Sight? 421

Gordon L. Wise and Myron K. Cox

The Demographics of "Price Awareness" in the Gasoline Service Station 422

Myron K. Cox and Gordon L. Wise

Table 6—International Finance and Public Utilities Risk-Return

Developmental Pattern of Export Financing During the Stage of Economic Growth 423

Joe H. Kim and Ik-Whan Kwon

Multinational Firms' Policies Impact on Cash Flow and Accounting Income 424

Joseph E, Finnerty, Thomas Schneeweis, and Edward Goodhue

Equity Capital Costs and Electric Utility Nuclear Dependence 425

John L. Eatman and Jerry G, Hunt

Capital Structure: A Basis for Discriminating Between High and Low Cost of Capital Firms

in the Electric Utility Industry? 426

Darryl G. Waldron

AUTHORS' INDEX 427

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