AMAZON 040809 Earnings Preview

8/9/2019 AMAZON 040809 Earnings Preview

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/amazon-040809-earnings-preview 1/13

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Equity Mkt. Cap. $2

Net LT Debt./

Mkt. Cap. 0.

Total EV $1

10 Yr. Treasury 2.

‘08 FCF Yield 4.

Financial Statistics

EPS P

2006A $0.45 11

2007A $1.12 4

2008A $1.52 3

2009E $1.42 3

EPS

FCF/

Share P/F

2006A $1.00 9

2007A $2.10 7

2008A $1.38 3

2009E $1.50 3

Free Cash Flow

April 8, 20

Brian Bo(312) 345-15

bbolan@sturdivant-co.

Important disclosures appear on the inside cover and back of this publication.

Amazon.Com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN )

Long Term Rating: Market UnderperformLong Term Target Price: $60

Mid-Atlantic Institutional Research

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

. Investment Summary: Amazon.com performed very well in 4Q08 despite very challenging macroenvironment conditions. After hitting the nail on the head last quarter, we moved to a more cau-tious stance for our revenue estimates. Operating expenses continue to be a priority for the com-

pany but will not likely be the source of any outperformance in the quarter. We believed that weak guidance and disappointing margins would keep buyers on the sidelines, but we were wrong. Weare maintaining our rating of Market Underperform and increasing our target price to $60.

Key Points

Revenue in line with our aggressive expectations. For 4Q08 we had projected $7.032B onthe topline and after adding back the negative impact of foreign exchange the company wouldhave reported sales of $7.024. For the first quarter, we are projecting revenues of $4.7B.

Potential for outperformance in the quarter is coming margins, not cost containment.

We were impressed by the discipline the company showed in 4Q08, as every line item of op-erating expense came in below our estimate. In 1Q09 we are expecting costs to be more inline with expectations and any outperformance to come from the gross margin line.

Weak gross margins were a non factor as market looked to market share gains. Grossmargins came in about 30 basis points below our estimate of 20.42%, down from a 23.4%level in the previous quarter. For 1Q09 we have modeled in gross margins of 22%, downover 100 basis points from last year, but up significantly from a discount heavy 4Q08. Thegeneral belief was the lower gross margins allowed the company to expand its market share.

Outlook is challenging and margins show small chances of growth. Recent economic con-ditions have taken a toll on Amazon.com’s competitors. We believe that Amazon.com willgain market share from many smaller competitors as well as its main competitors throughout2009. Our target price has increased to $60, a 33% increase from the beginning of the quarter.The stock has increased 43% since the beginning of the quarter, and may be trading more onmomentum than fundamentals. Increasing our EPS estimate from $1.42 to $1.50 and renewed

expectations of higher margins helped push our multiple to 40x 2009 earnings estimate.•

“4Q08 Earnings update

Source: BigCharts, CompanyReports and Sturdivant & Co. Estim

Relative Daily Price 1/30/0

Price 1/30 $50

52 Wk Lo-Hi $34.68-91

Div Yield

Avg. Volume 1

Insiders Own 3

S&P 500 845

Share Information



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Mr. Bolan does own shares of Amazon Disclosures

Rating System DefinitionsSturdivant & Co.’s stock ratings system reflects the investment decisions our clients face every day, and is meant to assist clients in making these decisions by recommending aspecific action to take with each stock we cover. All of the ratings correspond to a specific investment action that we recommend taking on the date the research is published. Thus,“Outperform” (equivalent to “Buy”) ratings are reserved only for stocks that we would be actively buying at the time the research is published. “Marketperform” (equivalent to“Hold”) ratings are reserved for stocks that we believe are in line with the market’s anticipated performance and we recommend holding. “Underperform” (equivalent to “Sell”)ratings are assigned to stocks where the analyst anticipates stock price declines relative to the market. Please note also that the price expectations that determine the rating are inabsolute dollar terms, not in terms of relative performance to a sector or an index. Therefore, analysts will not use the “Outperform” rating for stocks that are expected to performwell relative to their sector but only for stocks that are expected to appreciate in actual dollar returns.Research Analyst Compensation

Analyst compensation is based on: (1) the analyst’s productivity, including the quality of the analyst’s research and the analyst’s contribution to the growth and development of ouroverall research effort; (2) ratings and direct feedback from our investing clients, our sales force and from independent rating services. Sturdivant & Co.’s Compliance and Re-search Departments are responsible for establishing these compensation guidelines and for reviewing and approving senior analyst compensation. Analyst contribution to our

investment banking business is not a factor in determining analyst compensation and compensation is not, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in the report.Research Analyst Certification

The senior research analyst(s) certifies that the views expressed in this research report and/or financial model accurately reflect such senior analyst's personal views about thesubject securities or issuers and that no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in theresearch report. Mr. Bolan does owns shares of Amazon. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any company, industry or security. The opinions ex-pressed here reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change. The information has been obtained from sources we consider to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee theaccuracy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 are examples of unmanaged common stock indices used to measure and report performance of various sectors of the stock market; direct investment in indices is not avai lable. A complete listing of all companies covered by Sturdivant & Co., Inc. and applicable researchdisclosures can be obtained from the Company. Price Target Risks

Investment risks associated with the achievement of the price target include, but are not limited to, the company’s failure to achieve our earnings and revenue estimates, unforeseenmacroeconomic and/or industry events that adversely impact demand for the company’s products or services, product obsolescence, changes in investor sentiment regarding thespecific company or industry, intense and rapidly changing competitive pressures, the continuing development of industry standards, the company’s ability to compete for talent,and adverse market conditions. For a complete discussion of the risk factors that could affect the market price of the company’s shares, refer to the most recent form 10-Q or 10-Kthat the company has filed with the SEC.

Source: BigCharts.com

RELATIVE STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE

Rating and Price Target History for Amazon (AMZN )

S TURDIVANT & CO., INC.

OP: Outperform MP:Marketperform MU: Market Underperform

1/30/09MU: $50.00

T: $45.00



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Table of Contents

Earnings Analysis 4

Segment Analysis 4

Balance Sheet 4

Guidance 5

Valuation 5

4Q08 Income Statement review 6

Institutional Contacts 8



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Earnings Preview

Last quarter we projected revenues of $7.032B, which were high by a mere $8M after adjusting forcurrency. This quarter we expect Amazon to post revenues of $4.7B along with some improvement in

gross margins, as the company likely gained market share from offline competitors. We also took alook at the rest of the year and adjusted many of our numbers due to the recent strength in traffic andexpected contribution from MP3 downloads and the Kindle.

Our expectations for gross margins have improved, and we even believe there is upside to our 22%estimate. In the first quarter of 2008, Amazon reported 23.12% gross margin. We do not believe thatthe company will be able to achieve that level again this year.

Following a quarter that saw Amazon report lower than expected costs, we selectively trimmed someoperational expense line items. Going forward, we expect marketing to transition to include some pay-per-click (PPC) advertising. The recent changes in the affiliate program suggest that Amazon will

likely do its own direct to the merchant PPC ads which will be a savings on gross margin line but willbe offset by an increase to the marketing line item.

An upward trending stock may have benefitted from some of the $900M remaining in the stock buyback program, but it is unlikely that the company repurchased a significant amount of shares. Lastquarter, the company repurchased 2.2M shares at an average price of about $45. We expect the sharecount to hold steady at 436M.

Kindle continues to grab attention

The Kindle continues to be a source of upside for the company. Supply restraints helped ignite awildfire of hype as demand far outweighed supply. We have noticed that the Kindle is consistently atthe top of the bestsellers list for the electronics segment. We also believe that sales of the Kindle haveboosted and will continue to act as a tailwind for the sale of digital books. The company does not break out the sales of digital books, but we believe management will make positive comments pertaining tothe growth of sales of digital books.

Looking ahead, the sale of digital books could be the single highest driver of gross margin for thecompany. While we have been disappointed over the last several years with little to no marginexpansion, we now believe that Kindle is the light at the end of that particular tunnel. Consumers are just starting to embrace the Kindle and its adoption rates are encouraging.

We believe that the company could sell as many as 500K-750K Kindles by the end of the year, whichwill likely lead to a halo effect for the sales of digital books.



5


Balance Sheet

At the end of the year Amazon.com had $3.73B in cash, an increase of $615M from the prior quarter.The company has $468M in debt. Inventory increased 17% to $1.4B and turns were down by one half turn to 12.2 as the company moved to increase selection. Accounts payable increased 29% to $3.59Band payable days increased to 62 from 57 in the year ago period. Payables tend to increase in the firstquarter as the company pays off suppliers from the forth quarter and Holiday season.

Guidance

Amazon.com gave guidance of $4.525B—$4.925B for the topline, in line with our $4.7B estimate.Operating income guidance of $243M (midpoint) implies 5.1% margin, down 110 basis points fromthe year ago period.

Valuation

Posting a solid quarter in a very difficult macro environment denotes the impressive execution andsubsequent market share gains the company is seeing. Previous concerns that technology services werenot being well received by enterprises seems to be abating and could drive outperformance throughout2009. We also see the Kindle as having a break out year in the back half of the year.

FX had a significant negative impact last quarter. We believe that 1Q09 will not have as severe animpact but will still be subject to large swings in currency valuations. We tend to look at the broaderpicture and with 15% of estimated growth coming from international, we believe that currency willagain hurt revenue.

The basis of our recommendation was weakened by the performance in 4Q08. Gains in market shareand outperformance by the technology segment deserves a premium valuation. Fulfillment by Amazonand the increase in active users suggests that Amazon.com is widening the gap between itself and eBay.We believe that 1Q09 will show more gains in market share from smaller competitors.

We were hesitant to remove our Market Underperform rating on shares of Amazon due to the weak operating income guidance and the weaker than expected gross margins. The rest of the market,however, was not as hesitant to reward Amazon for the share gains it took and the gains it expected.Starting the quarter at $51.28, the stock zoomed higher after its earnings announcement on 1/29/09 androde that wave to end the quarter at $73.44. This translates to a 43.2% increase in the quarter.

We are increasing our target price due the positives in the quarter, not the least of which include sharegains, increase in active users and future potential of the Kindle. Our new target price of $60 is basedon a multiple of 40x our 2009 estimate of $1.50. A $15 (33%) increase to our price target is attemptingto keep pace with a stock that has renewed momentum interests and may no longer be trading solely off fundamentals. Keep in mind that management bought 2.2M shares for $45 in 4Q08, a level which isdramatically below present levels.



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AMAZON.COM, INC.

INCOME STATEMENTS(in million s, except per share data)

1Q08 4Q08 1Q09E

Net sales 4,135$ 6,704$ 4,701$

Cost of sales 3,179 5,356 3,667

Gross profit 956 1,348 1,034

23.12% 20.11% 22.00%

Operating expenses:

Fulfillment 354 549 400

Marketing 103 169 115

Technology and content 234 278 255

General and administrative 61 72 75

Other operating expense (income) 6 8 8 Total operating expenses 758 1,076 853

Income (loss) from operations 198 272 181

Interest income 26 16 21

Interest expense (22) (12) (14)

Other income (expense), net 4 26 2

Remeasurement and other 2 - -

Total non-operating income (expense) 10 30 9

Income (loss) from operations 208 302 190

Provision (benefit) for income taxes 62 79 55

30% 26% 29%

Income before cumulative effect change in accounting principle 146 223 135

Equity Method Investment Activity 2

Diluted earnings (loss) per share:

142$ 225$ 135$

Stock based comp 54 79 65

Non GAAP EPS 0.33$ 0.52$ 0.31$

Weighted average shares used in computation

430 436 436



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AMAZON.COM, I NC.

INCOME STATEMENT

(in millions, except per share data)

31-Mar 30-Jun 30-Sep 31-Dec

Net sales 4,701$ 4,662$ 4,786$ 7,810$

Cost of sales 3,667 3,672 3,770 6,248

Gross profit 1,034 991 1,016 1,562

Operating expenses (1):

Fulfillment 400 390 400 625

Marketing 115 105 105 170

Technology and content 255 245 260 280

General and administrative 75 78 79 120

Other operating expense (income) 8 5 3 5Total operating expenses 853 823 847 1,200

Income (loss) from operations 181 168 169 362

Interest income 21 13 15 17

Interest expense (14) (13) (12) (15)

Other income (expense), net 2 4 5 8

Total non-operating income (expense) 9 4 8 10

Income (loss) before income taxes 190 172 177 372

Equity method InvestmentProvision (benefit) for income taxes 55 45 45 110

29% 26% 25% 30%

Income before cumulative effect change in accounting principle 135 127 132 262

Cumulative effect of change in accounting principle

Net income (loss) 135$ 127$ 132$ 262$

Diluted earnings (loss) per share:

0.31$ 0.29$ 0.30$ 0.60$

Stock based comp 85

Weighted average shares used in computation 436 437 437 437

2009E



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2008

Recent

Price marketcap Sales PE EPS

operating

margin

net profit

margin

Search YHOO 12.85 17,838,803,245 7,208 45.1 0.28 0.18% -2.32%GOOG 360.88 113,722,673,730 21,795 27.0 13.31 25.41% 19.39%

Average 14,502 36.1 12.8% 8.5%

E-Commerce EBAY 13.83 17,826,551,026 8,541 10.2 1.35 24.3% 20.83%OSTK 9.45 214,449,824 834 #N/A -0.55 -1.31% -1.52%STMP 8.21 136,722,313 85 15.8 0.52 5.25% 11.97%

Average 3,153 13.0 9.4% 10.4%

rick and Mortar WMT 52.62 205,230,524,049 378,476 15.6 3.35 5.62% 3.39%TGT 37.00 28,022,004,239 63,367 13.0 2.86 5.44% 3.41%BBY 39.30 16,264,296,923 40,023 16.5 2.38 3.91% 2.28%COST 47.59 20,564,220,144 72,483 17.5 2.7 2.59% 1.64%

KSS 44.77 13,611,676,429 16,473 15.5 2.89 9.37% 5.4%

Average 114,164 15.6 5.4% 3.2%

ooks and media BKS 22.45 1,245,064,464 5,286 14.7 1.53 2.8% 1.6%BGP 0.93 57,681,829 3,820 #N/A -3.06 0.1% -0.5%BAMM 4.54 71,614,030 535 6.4 0.7 3.68% 2.1%

Average 3,214 11 2.2% 1.1%

Average 19,903,951,633 20,038 18.2 6.8% 5.4%

AMZN 76.03 32,782,323,081 19,166 51.2 1.46 4.4% 3.4%

All averages exclude WMT

Averages when excluding Google 5.48% 4.42%



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Cash Flow

For the Fiscal Period Ending 12 months

Dec-31-2003

12 months

Dec-31-2004

12 months

Dec-31-2005

12 months

Dec-31-2006

12 months

Dec-31-2007

12 months

Dec-31-2008

Net Income 35.0 588.0 359.0 190.0 476.0 645.0

Depreciation & Amort. 70.0 75.0 66.0 109.0 117.0 115.0

Amort. of Goodwill and Intangibles 6.0 1.0 55.0 96.0 129.0 172.0Depreciation & Amort., Total 76.0 76.0 121.0 205.0 246.0 287.0

(Gain) Loss On Sale Of Invest. (10.0) (1.0) (1.0) (2.0) 1.0 (2.0)

Stock-Based Compensation 88.0 58.0 87.0 101.0 185.0 275.0

Tax Benefit from Stock Options - - (7.0) (102.0) (257.0) (159.0)

Other Operating Activities 147.0 (259.0) 14.0 26.0 (78.0) (63.0)

Change in Acc. Receivable 2.0 (2.0) (84.0) (103.0) (255.0) (218.0)

Change In Inventories (77.0) (169.0) (104.0) (282.0) (303.0) (232.0)

Change in Acc. Payable 168.0 286.0 274.0 402.0 928.0 812.0

Change in Unearned Rev. (10.0) 3.0 7.0 26.0 33.0 105.0

Change in Other Net Operating Assets (26.0) (14.0) 67.0 241.0 429.0 247.0

Cash from Ops. 393.0 566.0 733.0 702.0 1,405.0 1,697.0

Capital Expenditure (46.0) (89.0) (204.0) (216.0) (224.0) (333.0)

Cash Acquisitions - (71.0) (24.0) (32.0) (75.0) (494.0)

Divestitures 5.0 - - - - -

Invest. in Marketable & Equity Securt. 277.0 (157.0) (550.0) (85.0) 341.0 (372.0)

Net (Inc.) Dec. in Loans Originated/Sold - - - - - -

Other Investing Activities - - - - - -

Cash from Investing 236.0 (317.0) (778.0) (333.0) 42.0 (1,199.0)

Short Term Debt Issued - - - - - -

Long-Term Debt Issued - - 11.0 98.0 24.0 87.0

Total Debt Issued - - 11.0 98.0 24.0 87.0

Short Term Debt Repaid - - - - - -

Long-Term Debt Repaid (495.0) (157.0) (270.0) (383.0) (74.0) (355.0)

Total Debt Repaid (495.0) (157.0) (270.0) (383.0) (74.0) (355.0)

Issuance of Common Stock 163.0 60.0 59.0 35.0 91.0 11.0Repurchase of Common Stock - - - (252.0) (248.0) (100.0)

Total Dividends Paid - - - - - -

Special Dividend Paid - - - - - -

Other Financing Activities - - 7.0 102.0 257.0 159.0

Cash from Financing (332.0) (97.0) (193.0) (400.0) 50.0 (198.0)

Foreign Exchange Rate Adj. 67.0 49.0 (52.0) 40.0 20.0 (70.0)

Net Change in Cash 364.0 201.0 (290.0) 9.0 1,517.0 230.0

Supplemental Items

Cash Interest Paid 120.0 108.0 105.0 86.0 67.0 64.0

Cash Taxes Paid 2.0 4.0 12.0 15.0 24.0 53.0

Levered Free Cash Flow 202.1 225.0 266.5 375.4 866.3 942.8

Unlevered Free Cash Flow 283.3 291.9 324.0 424.1 914.4 987.1

Change in Net Working Capital (84.6) (35.5) (112.0) (192.0) (483.0) (540.0)

Net Debt Issued (495.0) (157.0) (259.0) (285.0) (50.0) (268.0)



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Balance Sheet

Dec-31-2003 Dec-31-2004 Dec-31-2005 Dec-31-2006 Dec-31-2007 Dec-31-2008

ASSETS

Cash And Equivalents 1,102.3 1,303.0 1,013.0 1,022.0 2,539.0 2,769.0

Short Term Investments 292.6 476.0 987.0 997.0 573.0 958.0

Total Cash & ST Investments 1,394.8 1,779.0 2,000.0 2,019.0 3,112.0 3,727.0

Accounts Receivable 125.5 187.0 259.0 382.0 425.0 427.0

Other Receivables - - - - 280.0 400.0

Total Receivables 125.5 187.0 259.0 382.0 705.0 827.0

Inventory 293.9 480.0 566.0 877.0 1,200.0 1,399.0

Prepaid Exp. 6.0 12.0 15.0 17.0 - -

Deferred Tax Assets, Curr. 0.6 81.0 89.0 78.0 147.0 204.0

Other Current Assets - - - - - -

Total Current Assets 1,820.8 2,539.0 2,929.0 3,373.0 5,164.0 6,157.0

Gross Property, Plant & Equipment 371.7 423.0 571.0 594.0 738.0 1,078.0

Accumulated Depreciation (147.5) (177.0) (223.0) (259.0) (334.0) (396.0)

Net Property, Plant & Equipment 224.3 246.0 348.0 335.0 404.0 682.0

Long-term Investments 15.0 15.0 8.0 19.0 - -

Goodwill 69.1 139.0 159.0 195.0 222.0 438.0

Other Intangibles 1.0 5.0 11.0 143.0 166.0 332.0

Deferred Tax Assets, LT 4.1 282.0 223.0 199.0 260.0 145.0

Deferred Charges, LT 25.0 19.0 13.0 - - -

Other Long-Term Assets 2.7 3.0 5.0 99.0 269.0 560.0

Total Assets 2,162.0 3,248.0 3,696.0 4,363.0 6,485.0 8,314.0

LIABILITIES

Accounts Payable 819.8 1,142.0 1,366.0 1,816.0 2,795.0 3,594.0

Accrued Exp. 390.8 328.0 402.0 439.0 581.0 560.0

Curr. Port. of LT Debt 2.7 2.0 - 16.0 17.0 59.0

Curr. Port. of Cap. Leases 1.6 - - - - 72.0Unearned Revenue, Current 37.8 148.0 131.0 261.0 321.0 461.0

Other Current Liabilities - - - - - -

Total Current Liabil ities 1,252.7 1,620.0 1,899.0 2,532.0 3,714.0 4,746.0

Long-Term Debt 1,924.2 1,855.0 1,480.0 1,247.0 1,282.0 409.0

Capital Leases 1.2 - 5.0 20.0 62.0 124.0

Unearned Revenue, Non-Current - - - - 19.0 46.0

Other Non-Current Liabilities 20.1 - 66.0 133.0 211.0 317.0

Total Liabilities 3,198.1 3,475.0 3,450.0 3,932.0 5,288.0 5,642.0

Common Stock 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

Additional Paid In Capital 1,899.4 2,123.0 2,263.0 2,517.0 3,063.0 4,121.0

Retained Earnings (2,974.4) (2,386.0) (2,027.0) (1,837.0) (1,375.0) (730.0)

Treasury Stock - - - (252.0) (500.0) (600.0)

Comprehensive Inc. and Other 34.9 32.0 6.0 (1.0) 5.0 (123.0)

Total Common Equity (1,036.1) (227.0) 246.0 431.0 1,197.0 2,672.0

Total Equity (1,036.1) (227.0) 246.0 431.0 1,197.0 2,672.0

Total Liabilities And Equity 2,162.0 3,248.0 3,696.0 4,363.0 6,485.0 8,314.0



12

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Date Price Rating Target

AMZN 11/17/081/30/094/9/09

41.7550.0075.00

MUMUMU

$31.50$45.00$60.00

Total Technology Group

Outperform Marketperform Underperform

20% (1) 60% (3) 20% (1)

Outperform Marketperform Underperform

0 0 0

Investment Banking Relationship

AMAZON 040809 Earnings Preview

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