2Q16 Earnings Preview SSIResearch Vie

7/25/2019 2Q16 Earnings Preview SSIResearch Vie

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SSI Institutional Research - 3Q14 Earnings Preview

SSI Research - c tnh Kt

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Chng ti k vng li nhun trc thu c!" #C$ ti% t&c t'ng tr(ng c") ( *+c h"i c)n ,- tr)ng .u/ 2 nh icc *ng kinh )"nh chnh ti% t&c t'ng tr(ng *nh v ii chi %h trch l% : %h;ng gi* ,) vi c


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Chng ti k vng li nhun r;ng c!" #dZ .u/ 2P2016 cB th t'ng 10G ,) vi c


7/40

_E ,uNt li nhun cB th t'ng nh gi Ln t'ng ch! Ou ) gi thm% th gii t'ng v % thu t: v\Mi"i @)n 3 : n ohu ]iWn h% _hm% Lt @Au @i v) h)t @Ing tr)ng thng 4P2016 v ,S gi% t'ng ,n lngtiWu th&M

Q(ng li tH gi thm% cn nBng thN% @ *u" tr)ng .u/ 1P2016Mdhu cAu thm% t'ng thc @qO ,n lng tiWu th&

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13/40

oanh Qu# $%$&1'ownsi"e

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#C$ uO trD vY tr bn @Au t)n h\ th-ng ngVn hng #i\t d"* v kh n'ng ,inh li v .un trY r!i r)M dgVn hng thnh cngtr)ng vi\c gi" t'ng h\ ,- d=Z thY %hAn nhng vbn thn trng .un l/ n Nu vi tE l\ trch l% : %h;ng c") nhNt tr)ng ,-cc ngVn hng niW* OtM _uO nhiWn vi c tnh K$ 2016 2017 l 24 v 22 ch" %hi *+c hN% bn nWn chng ti gi.u"n @i* _rung l% @-i vi cX %hiu nOM

$=> l ngVn hng ln th+ h"i tr)ng ngnh nhng tE l\ n Nu v tri %hiu @wc Li\t c!" #ZC vbn ( *+c c") ,S l* gi*li nhun ) chi %hi trch l% : %h;ng lnM _hW* v) @B h\ ,- CR ,uO gi* ,S t) % l:c lWn t'ng tr(ng ti ,n tr)ngtrung hnM ]i ,uNt ch) v"O gi* @ t'ng thY %hAn cxng cB th nh h(ng @n h\ ,- d=ZM

_r)ng ,- 5 cng tO ln nhNt tr)ng ngnh c") ,u t: nhiWn #i\t d"* KQR cB ,n lng tiWu th& ln nhNt ,) vi cc cng tOniW* Ot khc v cxng l cng tO cB kh n'ng th"nh kh)n c") nhNt gi trY gi") Ych trung LDnh 3 thnga 33 tE @FngM CngtO cxng cB Rz c") nhNt l 95G ,) vi cc cng tO khc ch 4G6GM dg)i r" ,n %hq* c!" KQR @" ng L") gF* cc;ng ,n %hq* c") cN% s#R C#50 60 40G ,n lng @Au r" cB gi c") hpn cc l)i khc gi% )"nh thu cng tO c")hpn cc cng tO c


14/40

d'* 2016 chng ti c tnh )"nh thu ,S t'ng 154G ,) vi n'* trc :" trWn gi @Ynh %hVn khc ,i vbn chYu ,+c m%145G ,) vi n'* trc tr)ng khi @B %hVn khc vi v hng \t *"O @t t'ng tr(ng tch c:c nh ,n lng tiWu th&t'ng vi t'ng 265G v hng \t *"O t'ng 25GM _E ,uNt li nhun gI% ,S ci thi\n khi gi* @Bng gB% c!" %hVn khc cB tE,uNt li nhun thN% ,i tr)ng khi chi %h Ln hng v .un l/ t'ng nh* thc @qO )"nh thuM dhDn chung chng ti :L) li nhun r;ng @t 171 tE @Fng t'ng 11G ,) vi n'* trcM_r)ng n'* 2017 chng ti c tnh )"nh thu ,S t'ng 133G ,) vi n'* 2016 v li nhun r;ng t'ng 158G @t 197 tE

@FngM Ks @t 2M606 @Fng tr)ng n'* 2016 v 3M017 @Fng n'* 2017M _CZ @"ng gi") Ych ti K 2016 l 102 v K 2017l 89M _hng tin v ni lJng tE l\ ,( hu nc ng)i cB th l Ou t- tc @Ing tch c:c @n cX %hiuM

Ch) n'* 2016 chng ti c tnh )"nh thu thuAn @t 45M851 tE @Fng T144G ,) vi n'* trc v li nhun r;ng @t9M232 tE @Fng T188G ,) vi n'* trcM i @Ynh chnh c!" chng ti l 1 t'ng tr(ng )"nh thu tr)ng nc @t 138G,) vi n'* trc nh ,n lng tiWu th& t'ng v t'ng tr(ng )"nh thu uNt khqu t'ng 20G 2 " Ln trung LDnh ,"nguOWn li\u gi* 5G v 3 _E l\ chi %h Ln hng v .un l/ trWn )"nh ,X cB th @t 188G tr)ng n'* 2016MCh) n'* 2017 chng ti k vng )"nh thu thuAn t'ng 16G ,) vi n'* 2016 v li nhun r;ng t'ng 76G ,) vi n'*2016 ) gi ," nguOWn li\u : L) t'ng T10G ,) vi n'* 2016M_h^) @B chng ti : L) Ks 2016 l 6M923 @Fng v Ks 2017 l 7M448 @FngM #dZ @"ng gi") Ych ti K 2016 l 209v K 2017 l 195 thN% hpn *It cht ,) vi K : %hBng n'* 2015 219 nhng c") hpn K : %hBng lYch ,? c!"cng tOM

Chng ti uO trD c tnh )"nh thu thuAn n'* 2016 @t 3M615 tE @Fng t'ng 144G ,) vi n'* trc nu khng L") gF*)"nh thu hng khuOn *i hng hB"M Chng ti c tnh chi %h Ln hng ,S chi* 14G )"nh thu 2015a 127G v chi%h .un l/ ,S chi* 87G )"nh thu 2015a 73GM >) @B li nhun trc thu ,S @t 764 tE @Fng t'ng 89G ,) vi n'*trcM i @Ynh _d>d l 10G v) n'* 2016 2015a 155G li nhun r;ng ,S @t 687 tE @Fng t'ng 160G ,) vi n'*trcMd'* 2017 chng ti gi @Ynh rng )"nh thu ,S t'ng 144G ,) vi n'* trc @t 4M135 tE @Fng v li nhun ,S t'ng126G ,) vi n'* trc @t 774 tE @FngM_h^) @B Ks @t 7M081 @Fng tr)ng n'* 2016 v 7M973 tE @Fng tr)ng n'* 2017M >Q @"ng @c gi") Ych ti KP 2016 l125 v KP 2017 l 111M Chng ti " thch cX %hiu >Q nh @Ii ngx Ln hng *nh *S *ng li %hVn %h-i rIngkh% v ti* n'ng t'ng tr(ng )"nh thu nh ,n %hq* *iM _uO nhiWn cX %hiu thiu th"nh kh)n v Chnh Kh! @"ng

tht chwt .un l/ ngnh c %hq*M

d'* 2016 )"nh thu cB th @t 1M225 tE @Fng T183G ,) vi n'* trc v li nhun r;ng @t 51 tE @Fng 284G ,) vin'* trcM Chng ti gi @Ynh ,n lng tiWu th& cB th @t 80G k h)ch c!" s_o tpng +ng 36M140 tNn T344G ,)vi n'* trc gi Ln trung LDnh gi* 12G v gi ht nh:" cB th gi* 10G M d'* 2017 )"nh thu c tnh @t 1M409tE @Fng T15G ,) vi n'* 2016 v li nhun r;ng @t 70 tE @Fng T371G ,) vi n'* 2016M_h^) @B Ks cB th @t 1M097 @Fng n'* 2016 v 1M504 @Fng n'* 2017M s_o @"ng gi") Ych ti K 2016 l 229 v K2017 l 167M

i @Ynh =ZK h)n thnh k h)ch li nhun trc thu n'* 2016 l 140 tE @Fng nu khng L") gF* .u[ nghiWn c+u v%ht trin Ks cB th @t 3M065 @Fng gi @Ynh .u[ nghiWn c+u v %ht trin l 14 tE @Fng thu ,uNt hi\n hnh l 20G v.u[ kh^n th(ng %hc li l 12GM CX %hiu @"ng gi") Ych ti K 2016 l 134 thN% hpn *It cht ,) vi K 2015 l137 v vbn ( *+c c") ,) vi K lYch ,? c!" =ZK k tH khi niW* Ot 715M


15/40

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sn lng tiWu th& thm% n'* 2016 t'ng nh lng gi") Ych LNt @Ing ,n t'ng v )"nh thu khch hng tr trc c")tr)ng n'* 2015M_hu t: v\ % &ng @-i vi ,n %hq* %hi thm% v thm% i cB th l* gi* % l:c cnh tr"nh tH _rung ju-c v gi% QKuO trD tE ,uNt li nhun t-tMi"i @)n 3 : n ohu ]iWn h% _hm% gi% t'ng ,n lng ,n uNt thm% VO :ng tH 125 tri\u tNn lWn 2 tri\u tNnPn'*gi% QK cB th ginh thY %hAn v t'ng ,n lng tiWu th&M

sn lng tiWu th& thm% n'* 2016 t'ng nh nhu cAu t'ng *nhM]i nhun .u/ 2P2016 t'ng *nh ,) vi c


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KC ,S ti% t&c h(ng li nh nhu cAu gi" t'ng tH thY trng tM

Zwc < Z ,S t t-c @I t'ng tr(ng c") tr)ng .u/ ti v tr)ng n'* ti nhng@Ynh gi hi\n ti khng rM

Chng ti c tnh tr)ng n'* 2016 o$C ,S @t 1M968 tE @Fng )"nh thu t'ng 372G v li nhun ,"u thu 635 tE @Fngt'ng 55GM oCd _rng >u\ gi"i @)n 2 oCd ju"ng ChVu oCd _Vn Kh _rung v ohu @ thY Khc dinh ,S t) nguFnthu chnh| tr)ng @B oCd _rng >u\ gi"i @)n 2 cB th t) li nhun nhiu nhNt ch) cng tO vi k vng ,S thu ht nhiuhpn cc nh cung cN% ch) t% @)n ]MCh) n'* 2017 chng ti k vng cc : n @ @ c% LWn trWn ti% t&c @Bng gB% li nhun chnh ch) cng tO v c tnhcng tO ,S @t )"nh thu thuAn 2M049 tE @Fng t'ng 4M1G v li nhun ,"u thu 651 tE @Fng t'ng 25GM_h^) @B Ks n'* 2016 v 2017 ,S @t tpng +ng 1M325 tE @Fng v 1M358 tE @FngM o$C @"ng gi") Ych ti KP 2016 11M2v 2017 10M9M #i K *&c tiWu l 11 v K$ *&c tiWu l 10 gi *&c tiWu 1 n'* c!" o$C l 16M200 @FngPc% t'ng 95G,) vi *+c gi hi\n ti

Chng ti c tnh tr)ng n'* 2016 >} @t 2M119 tE @Fng )"nh thu T519G ,) vi c c!" cng tO ch) @n khi Ln gi")M ctnh tr)ng n'* 2017 >} ,S @t 2M561 tE @Fng )"nh thu T21G ,) vi n'* trc v 526 tE @Fng li nhun r;ng ch) cX@ng cng tO *{ T14G ,) vi n'* trc tpng @png vi Ks 2017 @t 2M130 @FngMdhDn chung chng ti k vng vi kh n'ng Ln hng c!" cng tO v t% trung v) cc : n %hVn khc thN% @n trungLDnh vi i\n tch h% l/ >} ,S ti% t&c cB t-c @ t'ng tr(ng png tr)ng nhng n'* ti vi ,: @Bng gB% tH vi\c tr:cti% %ht trin : n *wc < vi\c %ht hnh .uOn *u" cX %hiu cB th ,S khin Ks %h" l)ngM

@"ng *( rIng cng ,uNt lWn gN% 2 lAn tr)ng v;ng 2 n'* ti @ @% +ng thY trng dht $n v Z[M cxng cB kh)ch liWn )"nh @ ,n uNt ti @" n'ng ch) thY trng #i\t d"* v uNt khquM hi\n @"ng @c gi") Ych vi KP2017 kh h% l/ l 11

Zwc < KKC @"ng @c gi") Ych ( *+c KP$ rNt thN% vi\c @Fng OWn t'ng gi ,S l* ,&t gi* li nhun h)t @Ing kinh)"nh c!" KKC tr)ng n'* 2016M >) @B chng ti ch khuOn nghY nh @Au t Z cX %hiu tr)ng i hn


17/40

Lverweight Mn"erweight /eutral /Ja)Nn hOa ( Bng

45800 47300 -3J1T 124723 5591 799331

17400 17600 -1J14T 61195 2743 1537703

25600 20800 $3J&UT 1664 75 141805

40900 44900 -UJV1T 3849 173 99376

37300 37400 -&J$T 2823 127 371255

58100 79000 -$'J4'T 7125 319 45540


18/40

31700 25500 $4J31T 1286 58 542671

145000 139000 4J3$T 166819 7479 571898

94700 98500 -3JU'T 7694 345 51392

27700 24000 1^J4$T 1343M3 60M2 33018

dM" 42900 /Ja 1271 57M0 12363


19/40

41300 39300 ^J&VT 29021 1301 2207221

37900 42000 -VJ'T 7980 358 1456893

31000 27400 13J14T 4952 222 387331

127000 115000 1&J43T 2957 133 25397

dM" 31300 /Ja 11277 506 1659793

dM" 18300 /Ja 8443 378 1811382

18000 17200 4J'^T 880 39 393631

16300 12100 34J1T 845 38 177951


20/40

16200 15600 3JU^T 6952 312 1294321

18200 15300 1UJV^T 1782 80 698734

dM" 38700 /Ja 1771 79 157356

dM" 29500 /Ja 1438 64 521784

22800 14400 ^UJ33T 4677 210 502337

dM" 125000 /Ja 15835 710 155390


21/40

PER

$&14 $&1^ $&1'E $&1E 34M8 1562 21M11G 20M7 27M0 26M2 22M4

27M2 1220 2M13G 9M2 14M4 12M3 12M3

2M7 123 12M05G 8M0 6M0 6M9 6M2

3M1 139 31M68G 8M0 8M4 10M4 8M4

6M4 286 25M26G 9M3 6M0 9M8 8M4

2M6 116 49M00G 15M5 28M9 18M7 12M4

KhNi l67ng giao"Gch trung \]nh 'thWng ( Bng

KhNi l67ng giao"Gch trung \]nh 'thWng /ghin MS ( l[ sA h_u n6c

ngoZi T


22/40

15M3 687 49M00G 9M2 13M8 9M8 8M9

76M9 3448 49M00G 15M7 21M6 20M1 19M5

4M3 192 49M00G 15M8 11M1 13M9 11M1

0M8 37 12M9G dM" 17M7 21M9 16M7

0M6 25 49M0G 12M8 12M3 dM" dM"


23/40

71M1 3187 36M41G 8M1 6M5 7M9 7M2

41M6 1866 29M75G 24M5 6M4 8M6 9M6

10M6 476 30M08G 6M3 8M0 9M4 8M2

3M2 143 14M23G dM" 11M6 11M4 10M5

43M63 1956 36M37G 8M2 6M5 dM" dM"

30M01 1345 27M22G 6M9 4M8 9M0 7M6

7M56 339 20M09G 6M1 9M1 2M7 9M9

2M09 93 41M77G 14M4 9M9 15M9 13M6


24/40

17M29 775 32M76G 17M6 10M0 11M8 10M9

11M57 519 39M54G 6M0 6M0 5M1 6M9

4M35 195 24M98G 8M2 14M3 dM" dM"

8M98 403 19M50G 7M3 14M7 dM" dM"

9M12 409 13M30G 8M0 10M8 8M2 6M8

12M99 583 49M00G 23M9 10M7 14M5 9M9


25/40

P+R ( su`t c tc

$&14 $&1^ $&1'E $&1E $&14 $&1^ $&1'E $&1E $&14 2M0 2M6 2M4 2M2 3M1G 2M1G 2M1G 2M1G dM"

1M1 1M7 1M3 1M1 8M0G 4M7G 2M8G 2M8G dM"

0M9 0M6 0M7 0M7 7M5G 9M4G 10M6G 10M6G 16M0G

1M9 1M3 1M8 1M6 4M0G 5M1G 6M7G 5M0G 23M5G

0M9 0M7 1M1 0M9 5M1G 1M3G 1M8G nM" 11M6G

2M4 3M0 4M8 3M81 3M8G 2M1G 2M5G 2M5G 4M6G


26/40

1M9 1M7 1M3 1M2 4M7G 3M8G 3M8G 3M8G 3M7G

4M6 7M3 7M4 6M6 4M2G 3M6G 3M1G 3M4G 13M0G

3M7 2M2 3M0 2M6 3M1G 2M8G 3M4G 3M4G 10M9G

dM" 1M8 1M6 dM" 6M0G 6M0G 6M0G 0M3G

1M2 1M1 dM" dM" 3M6G 4M6G dM" dM" 2M2G


27/40

2M2 1M5 1M7 1M5 1M9G 3M8G 3M8G 3M8G 34M8G

1M9 0M7 2M3 2M0 2M1G 6M2G 3M7G 3M7G 27M5G

0M7 0M6 0M9 0M9 4M2G 0M0G 7M4G 7M4G 19M2G

dM" 7M9 7M0 6M6 dM" 9M7G 9M0G 9M0G 18M0G

1M6 0M7 dM" dM" 3M10G 4M63G dM" dM" 40M0G

1M3 0M7 0M7 0M7 4M46G 6M35G 6M67G 6M67G 23M4G

1M0 0M9 0M9 0M9 4M46G 9M09G 17M05G 7M95G 3M5G

0M5 0M3 0M5 0M5 2M58G 4M20G nM" nM" 38M8G


28/40

1M2 0M9 0M9 0M9 0M00G 0M00G 0M00G 0M00G 0M4G

1M0 1M4 1M1 0M9 0M00G 0M00G nM" nM" 47M8G

1M2 2M0 dM" dM" 9G 4G dM" dM" 7M1G

0M7 0M7 dM" dM" 7G 3G dM" dM" 34M8G

1M5 0M9 0M8 0M7 6G 10G 10M2G 10M2G 13M7G

8M3 4M6 5M2 3M8 0G 2G 1M4G 1M4G 65M9G


29/40

Dng tr6Ang "oanh thu T (Dng tr6Ang l7i nhuCn rbng T

$&1^ $&1'E $&1E $&14 $&1^ $&1'E $&1E $&14dM" dM" dM" 5M3G 15M6G 22M4G 16M6G 12M2G

dM" dM" dM" 23M1G 18M4G 8M6G 11M7G 8M3G

23M5G 10M7G 20M5G 31M1G 19M4G 15M5G 15M3G 31M2G



6M5G 12M5G 12G 40M7G 37M8G 189M3G 38M3G 6M8G


30/40





12M9G dM" dM" 37M8G 18M8G dM" dM" 33M0G


31/40










32/40






60M3G 38M3G 29M7G 160M7G 59M7G 33M9G 26M9G dM"


33/40

(Dng tr6Ang EPS T EPS Yng

$&1^ $&1'E $&1E $&14 $&1^ $&1'E $&1E5M4G 11M1G 16M6G 1543 1626 1807 2108

3M4G 0M2G 14M5G 1387 1434 1431 1639

19M8G 15M5G 15M3G 3362 2697 3017 3459

26M6G 25M9G 15M1G 4753 3490 4331 4998

22M9G 25M9G 18M3G 2952 3627 3804 4499

43M3G 189M3G 38G 2576 1462 4229 5849


34/40

37M3G 11M0G 13M8G 3489 2189 2606 2965

4M1G 18M8G 7M6G 6086 5837 6923 7448

5M5G 16M0G 12M6G 6081 5748 7081 7973

43M6G 28M4G 37M1G 2725 1537 1097 1504

11M0G dM" dM" 3277 2915 dM" dM"


35/40

31M5G 10M8G 9M4G 6525 4470 5004 5471

59M1G 59M0G 14M1G 1942 3089 4912 4222

26M6G 13M5G 13M1G 4572 3356 2913 3294

38M2G 15M4G 8M8G 19202 11865 10115 11007

48M2G dM" dM" 7841 4062 dM" dM"

11M4G 32M7G 16M0G 3925 3477 2044 2370

60M6G 267M7G 71M9G 4390 1728 6353 1783

16M5G 32M4G 15M4G 1343 1122 759 876


36/40

45M6G 0M7G 2M5G 904 1316 1325 1358

33M2G 4M4G 28M7G 2346 3125 2988 2130

14M9G dM" dM" 2742 2334 dM" dM"

57M7G dM" dM" 1895 801 dM" dM"

55M1G 18M8G 24M2G 3284 1476 1754 2178

60M4G 17M9G 26M9G 4553 7305 8612 10931


37/40

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38/40

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39/40

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40/40

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2Q16 Earnings Preview SSIResearch Vie

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