Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2011

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

November 2011

© Amárach Research


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out two years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

Our tracking research has shown the

remarkable emotional strength of the Irish

people, who have consistently reported

‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most

frequently experienced emotions.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

November 2011.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 21st -25th November 2011 inclusive.


A Matter of Measurement

Oct‘11 42% Nov‘11 57%

Oct’11 31% Nov’11 24%

Oct’11 25% Nov’11 17%

Oct’11 2% Nov’11 2%

Oct’11 0% Nov’11 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

November 2011 saw a sharp deterioration in perceptions about the economy vs. October:


The Stages of Recovery

November 2011 Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+

The economic situation in

Ireland is bad & getting

worse

55% 57% 40% 55% 57% 69% 58%

The economic situation is

bad but has stabilized 25% 22% 32% 24% 23% 18% 20%


bad but showing a few

signs of improvement

17% 18% 22% 16% 17% 10% 19%


getting better and showing

clear signs of improvement

3% 1% 3% 3% 2% 0% 1%


good and almost fully

recovered from the

recession

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Perceptions of the current stage of recovery by demographic group:

Source: Amárach Research, November 2011


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

In November 2011, the Recovery Indicator fell to its lowest level since late 2010:

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Apr '09

Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '10

May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '11

May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov

The Economic Recovery Index



34%41%44% 42%43%

46%48%41%43%

52%

41% 42% 43% 42%42%

42%39%

31%26% 18%

23%26%24%25%24%28%

23%26%24%26%26%23%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

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Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly

57% 59%65%

58% 60% 62%55%

51%

51%

61%

55%54%52% 53%

54%55%

50% 46% 44%33%

41%48%

44%48%47%

53%47%48%48%47%49%

42%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

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Au

g

Se

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Oct

No

v

De

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Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

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Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

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Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

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Ju

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Oct

No

v

I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly

Recovery Outlook 1

% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:



48% 48%51% 47%48% 48%46%

45% 45%50%

47% 43%47%45%

45%

47%

46%41% 41%

32% 34%39% 37% 36% 39% 40%

34%39%

34% 38% 38%34%

Ap

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May

Ju

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Oct

No

v

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Jan

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Ap

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0

May

Ju

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Ju

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Au

g

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Oct

No

v

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r '1

1

May

Ju

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Oct

No

v

I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly

Recovery Outlook 2

59%

62% 61% 60% 61% 60% 56%

52%

56% 55%53% 55%

53% 51%50%

55%

54%

53%

52% 45% 45% 49% 45% 47% 48% 50%44%

49% 46% 49% 45%45%

Ap

r '0

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May

Ju

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Au

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Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r'10

May

Ju

ne

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No

v

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r '1

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May

Ju

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Oct

No

v

Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly




43% 43% 42%46%

35%40% 39%

30%35% 36%

33%28% 27%

14%18%

25%

20%

21% 17%25%

20% 16%11%

16% 15% 13%

Oct '0

9

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

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Au

g

Se

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Oct

No

v

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May

Ju

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Oct

No

v

The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly

Recovery Outlook 3

22%

22% 21% 22% 21% 18%23%

20%

20% 21% 21%18%

20%13%

15%

18%

17%

17%

17%

21% 17% 19% 16% 15% 15% 18%

Oct '0

9

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r'10

May

Ju

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Au

g

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Oct

No

v

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Jan

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May

Ju

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Oct

No

v

I am less worried about losing my job than I was before: % agree strongly/slightly




% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: November 2009, 2010, 2011 & October 2011

16% 11% 14% 16%

Nov'09 Nov'10 Oct'11 Nov'11

I am more relaxed about spendingmoney than I was a few months ago

62%53%

59% 59%


Now is a good time to buy a house for those

who want to

27% 24% 22% 26%


I am saving a lot more than before because of

the recession

28% 30%23% 23%


I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I

need to 62%50% 54% 55%


Paying off debts is my main financial priority

Impact on:

•Spending

•Saving

•Debt

•Borrowing

Financial Sentiment Indicators



The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2011

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'10

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'11

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry





% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2011

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Aug

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Oct

No

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Ja

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b

Ma

r

Ap

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0

Ma

y

June

July

Aug

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Oct

No

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Ma

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Ap

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1

Ma

y

June

July

Aug

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger





% saying Yes: November 2011

All Adults Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+

Enjoyment 53% 55% 52% 50% 48% 45% 55% 65%

Happiness 50% 48% 52% 59% 49% 45% 47% 49%

Stress 48% 45% 52% 61% 54% 58% 44% 30%

Worry 45% 44% 46% 51% 52% 49% 47% 31%

Anxiety 34% 33% 36% 39% 38% 41% 28% 28%

Boredom 28% 30% 27% 50% 33% 24% 21% 17%

Pain 24% 23% 26% 23% 22% 25% 27% 25%

Sadness 21% 18% 24% 32% 21% 26% 19% 13%

Anger 18% 19% 18% 21% 27% 26% 13% 7%

Fear 12% 12% 13% 13% 19% 14% 7% 7%



What Next?

Our Economic Recovery Index points to a

worrying deterioration in Irish people’s outlook on

the economy.

We have also seen a further increase in

‘negative emotions’ such as stress and worry,

continuing the trend in recent months..

All this points to a very challenging environment

for Irish businesses going into 2012, especially

those serving the domestic consumer market.

But the recession is not evenly distributed – as

evidenced by the marked differences by age

(and sometimes gender) in relation to both the

outlook for the economy and people’s emotional

well-being.

Stay tuned for future updates as we enter 2012...

Drivers & Drinking

About Amárach Research

We are an independent market research

agency, providing a full range of research

services to our Irish and international clients.

Our team of 30 research & support staff have

worked with most of Ireland’s top 200

companies. Every year we survey over

100,000 people at home and abroad, as well

as running hundreds of focus groups.

Our experienced team of directors and

executives manage online, face-to-face and

cati surveys; as well as qualitative research

including focus groups, in-depths and

ethnographic studies. We also offer a unique

field-only service to universities and

international agencies.

Amárach Research is proud to be:

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to

bounce forward to success:

Mark Nolan Managing Director

or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive

or Gerard O’Neill Chairman

for a confidential discussion about your needs and to

explore how we can help you succeed through world

class market research.

e. [email protected]

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2011

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