Amárach Economic Recovery Index March 2015

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

March 2015

© Amárach Research


Picking Up

As we approach the end of Q1 2015 our

Economic Recovery Index shows a modest

recovery in momentum after reaching a

plateau in Q4 2014.

Nearly 1 in 5 adults now claims to see clear

signs of recovery – the highest level since we

began measuring perceptions back in April

2009 – we’ve come a long way since then.

It may be a springtime surge, or a statistical

blip, and we’ll know for sure in the next few

months, but the trend in retail sales suggests it

more than just a blip…


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out nearly six years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

March 2015.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 12th to 20th March 2015 inclusive.

See how bad it was five years ago: http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amarach-recovery-indicator-march-2010

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Our Index has reached its highest level in six years, just shy of the 40 mark:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, March 2015

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'14

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'15

Feb

Mar

the ERI has regained momentum after a late 2014 plateau…


A Matter of Measurement

Feb ’15: 16% Mar ’15: 16%

Feb ’15: 33% Mar ’15: 30%

Feb ’15: 37% Mar ’15: 36%

Feb ’15: 13% Mar ’15: 17%

Feb ’15: 1% Mar ’15: 1%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

A solid majority of Irish people still continues to say that the economy is improving:


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Mar-10 36 35 27 2 0 23.5

Mar-11 48 30 20 2 0 19.2

Mar-12 43 29 24 4 0 22.3

Mar-13 41 29 25 5 0 24.0

Mar-14 19 34 36 10 1 34.7

Feb-15 16 33 37 13 1 37.4

Mar-15 16 30 36 17 1 39.5

nearly 1 in 5 see clear signs of improvement…


Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

(by sex, age, Dublin, class)


March 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

1000 494 507 169 223 187 156 265 279 441 559

The economic situation

in Ireland is getting

worse 16% 15% 16% 10% 18% 13% 23% 14% 11% 11% 19%


is bad but has stabilized 30% 31% 26% 25% 31% 33% 31% 25% 30% 30% 28%


is bad but showing a

few signs of

improvement

36% 31% 37% 37% 27% 31% 35% 40% 32% 35% 34%


is getting better and

showing clear signs of

improvement

17% 18% 15% 17% 18% 15% 9% 21% 19% 21% 13%


is good and almost fully

recovered from the

recession

1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

ERI Score 39.5 39.8 39.2 41.1 37.3 37.7 34.4 44.6 41.1 41.1 42.7

Some Progress

Consumer Impact


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Mar-10 42 43 54 55

Mar-11 25 36 48 47

Mar-12 30 40 50 48

Mar-13 30 40 44 47

Mar-14 37 40 49 45

Feb-15 42 42 53 45

Mar-15 40 40 48 40

overall financial wellbeing indicators have plateaued or fallen slightly…


Feeling Resilient?

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, Dublin, class):

“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

1000 494 507 169 223 187 156 265 279 441 559

Strongly Agree 12% 13% 10% 11% 9% 9% 8% 17% 12% 17% 7%

Slightly Agree 29% 27% 30% 23% 32% 28% 23% 33% 30% 32% 26%

Neither/Nor 17% 20% 14% 18% 18% 19% 17% 14% 21% 18% 16%

Slightly Disagree 19% 17% 20% 19% 21% 19% 22% 14% 18% 16% 21%

Strongly Disagree 20% 20% 20% 20% 16% 22% 27% 18% 17% 14% 26%


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial priority

is to pay off my

debts as quickly

as possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Mar-10 18 25 61 30

Mar-11 13 23 58 23

Mar-12 18 29 55 24

Mar-13 19 27 53 25

Mar-14 23 24 58 26

Feb-15 27 28 53 26

Mar-15 26 27 51 24

there has been some recovery in % willing to borrow and % saving more


St Patrick’s Effect

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I always buy Irish when I can”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 507 169 223 187 156 265 279 441 559

Strongly Agree 20% 21% 20% 17% 20% 16% 16% 27% 19% 19% 21%

Slightly Agree 28% 28% 29% 24% 26% 32% 28% 31% 29% 31% 26%

Neither/Nor 26% 25% 27% 34% 23% 29% 26% 23% 27% 26% 27%

Slightly Disagree 11% 11% 11% 11% 14% 10% 12% 10% 12% 12% 11%

Strongly Disagree 9% 10% 8% 9% 11% 8% 14% 4% 9% 8% 10%

Mood of the Nation


The Mood of the Nation – I

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to March 2015


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

0

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

1

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

2

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

3

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

4

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

5

Feb

Mar

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation – II

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to March 2015


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Jun

Jul

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'10

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'11

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'12

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'13

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'14

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'15

Fe

bM

ar

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


The Mood of the Nation – III



F50+

C2DE

F50-

1000 494 507 169 223 187 156 265 279 441 559

Enjoyment 52% 51% 52% 53% 47% 41% 51% 62% 52% 57% 48%

Happiness 50% 46% 54% 53% 50% 34% 49% 61% 48% 55% 46%

Stress 42% 40% 45% 52% 46% 46% 54% 24% 47% 40% 44%

Worry 35% 32% 38% 39% 34% 35% 49% 26% 37% 32% 38%

Anxiety 28% 27% 29% 37% 28% 27% 31% 20% 32% 30% 26%

Boredom 25% 23% 26% 47% 26% 24% 22% 12% 25% 23% 26%

Sadness 22% 19% 25% 34% 19% 23% 26% 15% 24% 22% 22%

Physical Pain 22% 21% 24% 24% 17% 19% 30% 24% 24% 18% 26%

Loneliness 17% 16% 17% 28% 14% 16% 19% 11% 16% 17% 16%

Anger 16% 16% 15% 22% 20% 15% 19% 7% 18% 15% 17%

Fear 11% 10% 12% 17% 10% 11% 12% 7% 12% 11% 10%

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes:

Amárach Outlook


Carry Forward

Our ERI survey shows the consumer

economy to be firing on a few engines, but by

no means all of them.

We can expect to see more momentum in the

coming months as falling unemployment

translates into higher spending power, but

even those already in jobs will be more

positively disposed to loosening the purse

and wallet strings.

We hope you find this edition of the

Economic Recovery Index helpful and

please do get in contact if you want to

discuss how it can be applied to your brand

planning requirements in 2015.

For more on the ERI see:

http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

we ask better questions

so you get better answers

Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/

Trends Report

e. [email protected]

t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

s. slideshare.net/amarach/

Amárach Economic Recovery Index March 2015

Economy & Finance

Transcript of Amárach Economic Recovery Index March 2015