Alternate pathways to reduced petroleum consumption and ... · Alternate pathways to reduced...

Use of Hydrogen for the Light Duty Transportation Fleet:Technology and Economic Analysis

NETL/ANL Scenario Analysis Results

USAEE/IAEE North American ConferenceSeptember 20, 2005

Peter C. BalashEconomist

National Energy Technology Laboratory

Alternate pathways to reduced petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions

Disclaimer/acknowledgements

• I would like to thank my co-authors and colleagues:• Donald Hanson, ANL• Dave Schmalzer, ANL Dale Keairns, NETL • John Molburg, ANL Kathy Stirling, NETL• John Marano, ANL/NETL Ken Kern, NETL• And other colleagues for their helpful comments along

the way

All views expressed are those of the authors and shouldnot be construed to reflect the policies or views of the

United States Department of Energy, the National Energy Technology Laboratory, or Argonne National Laboratory

Dedication

This presentation is dedicated to the memory of John Ruether (1941-2005)

NETL Senior Engineer, friend, colleague, and project inspiration

Can Energy Security and Climate Concerns be Reconciled?

• President Bush, February 2003:−Reduction of Petroleum Consumption

• 11 million barrels per day, by 2040

−Reduction of Carbon Equivalent• 500 million metric tons per year, by 2040

• NETL/ANL Study Assumption−Reductions are from forecasted baseline

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024

NH-Rew hydro nuclear coal NG dom NG imp. pet.dom pet imp.

Domestic Petroleum

History Projections

Petroleum ImportsNatural Gas Imports

DomesticNatural Gas

Coal

Non-Fossil

Oil Shocks and Economic Restructuring

US Energy Consumption by Fuel 1949-2025

Qua

drill

ion

Btu

s

Source: EIA; 1948-2003: Annual Energy Review 2003, Table 1.3; 2004-2025: Annual Energy Outlook 2005, Tables 1,2, and 17

US GHG Emissions, 1990-2002

5002 643 393 91

5782 598 416 138

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

Tg CO2 Eq.

1990

2002

year

CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs PFCs and SF6

6129 Tg

6935 Tg

Source: EPA, 2004 Greenhouse Gas Inventory, National Inventory Tables, Table ES-2

2002 US CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion, by Sector

Source: EPA, 2004 Greenhouse Gas Inventory, National Inventory Tables, Table 3.3

126

1868

169

424

299

105

1729

267

72

53

406

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Residen

tial

Commercia

l

Industrial

Transp

ortatio

n

Electri

city

Tg C

O2

petroleumnatural gascoal

Scenario Project Purpose

• Study plausible scenarios for “hydrogen economy”−Recognition of role of petroleum complex and

transportation fuels infrastructure

• Investigate macro role of coal-based technologies −For both petroleum substitution and carbon

reductions

Scenario Project Purpose, cont’d

• Support wider DOE hydrogen economy modeling effort− Initial implementation of DOE (H2A) cost estimates−Respond to National Academy call for Fossil Energy

“Systems Analysis” to study H2 economy

• Identify appropriate economic drivers−Guide techno-economic system to optimal outcome

within scenario period

NETL/ANL Scenario Analysis

• Target Transportation and Power Generation

• Enabling Technologies−Hybrid-Electric Vehicles; Fuel Cells−Carbon Capture and Sequestration−Coal-to-Liquids (Fischer-Tropsch)

• Externality Charges−Energy Security Premium−Carbon Charge

Technical Challenges

• Integration of cost and performance specifications of refinery and coproductionplants with AMIGA economic model.− Important for richer representation of investment

choices• Implementation of H2A cost estimates for

technologies not yet in existence−Must assume technological breakthrough in FCV

case• Identification of appropriate performance

characteristics of advanced vehicles

Scenario Structure

• Uses Presidential reduction goals as drivers−Reductions from future, not current, levels−H2-economy based on FCV a possible means to

achieving quantitative goals, not an end in itself• As distinct from Academy study (2004)

• replacement of petroleum-based light-duty vehicle fleet, or • DOE H2 Posture plan (2005)

• Focus on renewable hydrogen

• Recognition of scientific debate− E.g. Romm (2004), Shinnar (2003), Demirdöven and Deutch

(2004)

Petroleum Target

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005 2025 2040

AEO2005 AMIGA

21 21

28 27

35

3111mmb/d reduction

from AMIGA ref.

implies future consumption

at today’s levels

Mill

ion

barr

els p

er d

ay

Source: EIA AEO2005 Yearly Table 11; author extrapolation;AMIGA reference run

Carbon Emissions Target

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2005 2025 2040

AEO2005 AMIGA Ref

1171 1169

1645 1562

2151

1761C target

reduction from AMIGA ref. reduces C to level ~7%

above today’s

Mill

ion

Met

ric to

ns C

eq.

per

yea

r

Source: EIA AEO2005 Yearly Table 18 (transport petroleum; electric power); author extrapolation; AMIGA reference run

Scale of Challenge

Small Car

Large Car

Conv. SUV

Large SUV

HEVs

Small Car

Large Car

Conv. SUV

Large SUV

HEVs

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2040

Vehicle Stock Increases

63%

Source: AMIGA Reference Run

Mill

ions

of V

ehic

les

How to Achieve Cuts

Technological “breakthroughs”assumed

Four size categories of Hybrids; eventual Plug-Ins

Nuclear Generating Capacity Constant

More stringent clean air regulations begin in California

Carbon Charges on Electricity generation from 2015

Gasification, Hydrotreatingand Clean fuels Refinery Modeling

H2A program (DOE EE)H2 cost data

Energy Security Charges on premium fuels from 2010

“Clear Skies”-Like Emissions Targets

DOE H2 Posture Plan guidelinesCoal Power/Fischer-TropschCo-Production Plants

Oil Prices From $37/b in 2010; Gas Prices from $6/mmBtu

Hydrogen AchievementHydrogen Production for Fuel Cell Vehicles“FCV case”

Extended TransitionHybrid-electric vehiclesand Clean Hydrocarbons“HEV case”

Reference Case:“Business as usual”

Assumptions are kept from left to right

Externality Charges

$ per metric ton C;$ per barrel oil

More stringent

anti-smog measures

+ higher fuel economyimplies lower

C charge for

FCV case

Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Reference Carb Ch - HEV Carb Ch - FCV ES Prem - HEV ES Prem - FCV

Model optimizes imposition of charges

Effective Oil Prices

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

World Oil Price ES charge per bbl Carb Ch per bbl

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

World Oil Price ES charge per bbl Carb Ch per bbl

$/bb

l

Extended Transition Hydrogen Achievement

Externality charges result in higher effective than nominal oil prices;Slightly higher imputed carbon and energy security charges in HEV-only case


Vehicle Stocks

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

ICEs HEVs

Mill

ion

vehi

cles

Extended Transition Hydrogen Achievement


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

ICEs HEVs FCVs

FCVsHEVs

Distribution of Vehicle Types in FCV Case

YEAR 2040

Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs,FCV Case

In end-period, FCVs dominate

middle categories, but HEVs remain and large ICEsretain attraction

CV63%

HEV19%

FCV18%

HEV31%

FCV52%

CV17%

HEV35%

FCV50%

CV15%

CV20%

HEV37%

FCV43%

Small Car

Conv. SUV

Large Car

Large SUV

Mileage, Full-size Cars, Hydrogen Achievement

Mile

s pe

r gal

lon

gaso

line

equi

vale

nt –

full-

size

car

s


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Large CVLarge HEVLarge FCV

Efficiencies of competing advanced

vehicles improve

Reduced Petroleum Consumption

Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs - HEV case

Mill

ion

barr

els p

er d

ay

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

FT-Fuels Offset Other fuels vehicle fuels

85% of goal met through efficiency; 15% from coal/F-T substitution

Petroleum Supply Slate

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Domestic Oil Crude Imports NGL Net product imports Other Inputs Volume Gain

Mill

ion

barr

els

/day

Extended Transition

Crude imports

lead decline

Carbon Emissions by Sector, year 2040

933

828

584

0

728

485

567

65

705

536

566

0

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

reference FCV HEV

H2 carbon Other TransportPower


Mill

ion

met

ric to

nnes

C

Reductions in C, target year 2040

FCV Case total: 500 MmtC HEV Case total: 537 MmtC

other, 17

Power 205 IGCC

seq, 102.6

renew, 102.4

Transport343

other, 18

Transport 292

Power 228

IGCC seq,

105.4

renew, 122.6

Transportation bears larger burden of

C reduction in FCV case

Renewable power expansion plays bigger role in

C reduction in HEV case


C Reductions over Time

0

5 0

1 0 0

1 5 0

2 0 0

2 5 0

3 0 0

3 5 0

2 0 0 5 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 5 2 0 3 0 2 0 3 5 2 0 4 0

P o w e r T r a n s p o r t O th e r

0

5 0

1 0 0

1 5 0

2 0 0

2 5 0

3 0 0

3 5 0

4 0 0

2 0 0 5 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 5 2 0 3 0 2 0 3 5 2 0 4 0

P o w e r T r a n s p o r t O t h e r

FCV Case

HEV CaseHigher C charge pushes power sector

in HEV case

Anti-Smog measures push transport sector

in FCV case

Million Metric Tons C

Million Metric Tons C


Total Electrical Output, Year 2040

6764

6843

7173

6500

6600

6700

6800

6900

7000

7100

7200

reference FCV case HEV case

2040

Trill

ion

Wat

t Hou

rsGrowth in energy input

to transport sector increases overall

generation in HEV Case6% v. reference

4.8% v. FCV case


Energy Supply Growth to Vehicles HEV Case

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Petroleum Grid

Growth in Energy Input to Transport

Sector levels off as more efficient

plug-in HEVsbecome

prevalent

Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs - HEV case

Trill

ion

Btu

s

Coal Usage – Year 2040

4.6

28.7

0.2

27.8

8.9

1.5

27.5

4.2

5.1

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

reference HEV FCV

Old Coal Power New Coal Power FT plants Coal to H2

Qua

drilli

on B

tus

Existing coal generation disappears except in reference case. Advanced coal generation highest in reference case, but coal use 11-15% higher in alternative

scenarios due to increased usage in FT plants and coal-to-hydrogen plants


Observations

• HEVs are more efficient relative to both conventional ICEs and H2 FCVs than in the National Academy Study

• Higher carbon reduction targets would require more coal plant sequestration

• More reduction in petroleum in sectors other than light-duty fleet

• Sensitivities could include − constrained oil supplies − less efficient advanced vehicles − higher carbon reduction targets − faster development of coal technologies

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