How much technology transfer takes place in the CDM?

TETRIS conference, Brussels, November 30th, 2006Heleen de Coninck

Definition of technology transfer (IPCC, 2000)

“A broad set of processes covering the flows of know-how, experience and equipment for mitigating and adapting to climate change amongst different stakeholders such as governments, private sector

entities, financial institutions, NGOs and research/education institutions.”

Approach

Researched three aspects of technology transfer for CDM:• Origin (outside of host country?)• New or improved (not business as usual in the host country)• Knowledge transfer or capacity building

Based on PDDs, publications, email with project developers

Calculation of investment value: based on estimate of the capital costs per project per technology

Registered projects on 1st January, 2006, examined 63 projects in 20 countries Total emission reduction of 28 MtCO2-eq per year

Technologies used - Number of projects

Biogas10%

Landfill gas16%

Wind energy8%N2O destruction

3%

Methane capture5%

Hydropow er34%

Biomass15%

Energy eff iciency2%

HFC23 destruction5%

Fuel sw itch2%

Fuel sw itch0.1%

Hydropow er2.7%

Landfill gas9.5%

Methane capture1.4%

HFC23 destruction28.9%

Energy efficiency0.0%

Wind energy2.0%

N2O destruction53.0%

Biomass1.1%

Biogas1.4%

Technologies used - GHG reduction

Technology transfer - origin of technology

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Origin of technology

no data

other

host country

Europe

Landfill gas: mainly Netherlands N2O reduction: mainly from FranceHFC-23 destruction: Japan, UK and GermanyMethane capture: host countryHydropower: various: Spain, France, Japan, Switzerland and the United States and host countriesWind energy: Spain and DenmarkBio-energy: host country

Technology transfer - new or improved

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

New or improved and importedtechnology

No data

Unclear

No Technologytransfer

Technologytransfer

Word of caution: country “available technology” sometimes unclear; diffusion into other areas in same country omitted

Technology transfer - capacity building/knowledge transfer

0%

10%

20%30%

40%

50%

60%

70%80%

90%

100%

Capacity building required

No data

Unclear

No capacitybuildingCapacitybuilding

Word of caution: Difficult to check; relying on PDD, which has an interest in exaggerating

Which technologies are transferred?

0

5

10

15

20

25

Bio

gas

Bio

mas

s

HFC

dest

ruct

ion

hydr

opow

er

land

fill g

as

met

hane

capt

ure

N2O

win

dpow

er

rest

Num

ber o

f pro

ject

s data missing

no TT

TT

Investment value per technology

41%

51%

2% 2% 4%

Landfill gasHydro powerWind energyFuel switchHFC-23N2O destruction

Total value: 470 million euro

Investment costs: rough numbers, so very large uncertainties

Investment value per country

0

50.000.000

100.000.000

150.000.000

200.000.000

250.000.000

So?

CDM can be associated with technology transfer; mainly in large-scale non-CO2 greenhouse gases wind energy

Small-scale technologies tend to be local, particularly bio-energy and agricultural projectsHydropower shows a mix of countries of originCapacity building or knowledge transfer appears to have taken place in almost half of the projectsInvestment value of Annex I to non-Annex I technology transfer about 470 million Euro Compare: CER value of ca. 140 million Euro (@ 5 euro/tCO2-eq)

Biggest CER buyers do not equal the biggest technology exportersUnited States also exports some 50 million Euro but isn’t leading

Future developments

Extrapolation of the results, even to the present, difficult for several reasons

Number has risen to 450 projects Lots of new technologies Analysis outdated but still relevant

Of course, future depends on post-2012 developments, persistence of the carbon market, and potential reform of the CDMIncreasingly manufacturing of technologies in host countries (e.g. wind energy industries in India, China)On the other hand, as potential for technology transfer grows with market, more export potential for technologies from EU and Japan