All Weather Winners
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Transcript of All Weather Winners
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TheAllWeatherWinners
System
MichaelCarrwww.lucrativeportfolio.com
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ForewordFirstlyabigthankyouforsigninguptoreceivetheAllWeatherWinnerssystem.
Itisastraightforwardsystemtofollowandcanbeusedallyearround,throughbothracingseasons.
AllWeatherWinnershasbeenprovenprofitablesince2010.
Imsureitwillprovetobeagreatadditiontoyourownbettingportfolio,justasithasbeentomyown.
BestRegards,Michael
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SystemOverview
Thissystem,asthenamesuggests,focusesspecificallyonAllWeatherracing.Wewillbefocusingonthefavouritesintheseraces,andallselectionswillbebackedtowin.
Inthe3yearsofproofingfrom20102012inclusive,wehaveseenthefollowingresults:
Bets:943Wins:363
38.49%StrikeRate
AnindustrySPprofitof9,708(to100levelstakes)ABetfairSPprofitof11,820(to100levelstakes)
Usingadvisedstakingmethodswehavebeenabletomultiplytheseprofitlevelsmanytimesover.
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SystemRules
Aswithanyhorseracingsystem,wehaveasetofrulestofollowinordertofindourselections.AnadvantageforAllWeatherWinnersisthatalltherulesareeasyandstraightforwardtofollow.
Wewilllistthesystemrulesbelow,andtheninthefollowingpageswillgointomoredetailonthereasoningbehindtheserules,andhowtoapplythem:
1.TheracemustbeonanAllWeathersurface2.Wearefocusingonthefavouriteintherace3.Theracemustbeclass5orlower4.ThehorsemusthavethetopOfficialRating(OR)initsrace5.Exclude2yearoldhorses6.ThehorsemustbeMale7.Thehorsemustberacingwithin1classofitslastrace8.Ourhorse'slastracemusthavebeenahandicap
Nowwewillshowyoutheeasiestorderandhowtoapplytheserules.
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1.TheracemustbeonanAllWeathersurface
Applyingthisrulefirstmeanswecanquicklyestablishifthisisgoingtobeanobetday.
Wehave5allweathertracksintotalforUKandIrishracingthesearelistedbelow:
LingfieldParkKemptonParkSouthwellWolverhamptonDundalk
WewillneedtoheadtotheRacingPostwebsitetocheckwhetherthereareanyAllWeathermeetingsonagivenday,sogoto:
http://www.racingpost.com/cards
Onthispage,simplyscrolldownthepagetoseewherethedaysmeetingsarebeingheldat.
Ifnoneofourallweathertracksappearonthislist,itissafetoassumetherearenoAllWeathermeetingsforthatday,andsonosystemselections.
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2.Wearefocusingonthefavouriteintherace
Wearefocusingonthefavouritestoensureahighstrikerate,andreducethelengthoflosingruns.OurfirsttworulesgohandinhandasthestatsshowfavouritesontheAWhavewonahigherpercentageofthetimethanontheturf.
Interestinglystandardtofastistheonlytypeofgoingthathasproducedaprofittolevelstakeswithfavouritesoverthelast3yearperiod.
Thereareplentyofwaystocheckwhichhorseisthemarketfavourite.Twooftheeasiestwebsitestouseare:
Anoddscomparisonwebsitesuchashttp://www.oddschecker.com
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Abettingexchangesuchashttp://www.betfair.com/exchange
AlthoughIhavetakenthesescreenshotsinthemorningwhenthereisnotagreatdealofmoneyinthemarket,wecanalreadyseethatBoroughBoyisthefavouriteinthisrace.
PleasenotewewanttofindaCLEARfavouriteinanygivenraceraceswithjoint/cofavourites,orhorsesatthetopofthemarketwithcloseoddsshouldbeexcluded,asthefavouriteintheseracescanquiteeasilychangethroughouttheday.
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3.Theracemustbeclass5orlower
Favouritesinthelowerclassesofracingtendtobemoreclearcutfromtheremainderofhorses,andthereforeperformbetterasaresult.Higherclassesofracingarealotmorecompetitivecausingadropinthestrikerateofthefavourites.Wecanseethisusingthehistoricaldataforfavouritessince2010:
Class6AWraces36%strikerateClass5AWraces37%strikerateClass4AWraces31%strikerateClass3AWraces25%strikerateClass2AWraces26%strikerate
SobacktotheRacingPosttoseewhatclassour7.20Wolvesraceis.Ifweclickonourraceinthecards,apagelikethiswillappear:
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Afterthenameoftherace,theclassoftheracewillbedisplayedinbrackets,whichIhavecircledinred.
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4.ThehorsemusthavethetopOfficialRating(OR)initsrace
Anotheraidtokeepingthestrikeratehigh,andthereforethesystemprofitable.41%offavouritehorseswithtopORgoontowintheirrace.
Forthisrulewewillneedtogointotheracedetails,soagainintheRacingPost,clickonanyofthequalifyingracesandyouwillbefacedwithascreensimilartothis:
Iprefertousetheataglancecardtabasopposedtothestandardcardasyoucanseemoredetailusingthiscard.TheOfficialRatingfiguresareshowninredovaltotherightofthescreenshot.
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AswecanseeBoroughBoyhasthehighestrating.
Onethingtonotehereisourhorsestillqualifiesasaselectionifthereareotherhorsesintheracewiththesameofficialrating,aslongasnootherhorsehasahigherOR.
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5.Exclude2yearoldhorses
2yearsistheyoungestageahorsecanraceat,andassuchmanyofthesehorsesareeitherfirsttimerunnersorotherwiseinexperienced.Thisiswhywehaveexcludedthesefromourselections.
Fromthesamepageasbeforewecanchecktheageofourhorseaslongasitis3yearsorolderitpassesthisrule.
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6.ThehorsemustbeMale
ThestatisticsshowthatmalehorsesperformbetterontheAWthantheirfemalecounterpartsafterapplyingthepreviousrulesmalehorsesshowalevelstakeprofitof32points.Femaleshowevershowamassive52pointslosstolevelstakes.
Weneedtodelvealittledeeperintotheindividualhorsedetailstofindthisinformation,sofromthecurrentpageintheRacingPost,clickonourfavouritehorsesnametoloadupanewwindowlikethis:
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Againtherelevantinformationhasbeenhighlightedinred.Itisthelastletterinthiscircleweareinterestedin,asthisiswhattellsusthehorsesgender.Allthedifferentnotationsareshownbelow:
HORSES&COLTSbc.........baycolt....chc......chestnutcoltgrc.....greycoltbg........baygeldingchg......chestnutgeldinggrg......greygeldingbh.........bayhorsechh......chestnuthorsegrh.....greyhorse
FILLIES&MARESbf....bayfillygrf.....greyfillychf....chestnutfillybm.....baymare...5yearsandolderchm...chestnutmaregrm....greymare
WecanseeBoroughBoyisaGelding,whichmeansitismale,andsothishorsequalifiesunderthisrule.
Basicallywejustwanttoavoidhorsesthathaveanformnotation.
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7.Thehorsemustberacingwithin1classofitslastrace
Commonsensedictatesthatahorsegoingup2ormoreclassesisoftengoingtostrugglewiththehigherlevelofcompetition,atleastfirsttimeout.Horsesrunninginasimilarclassasthepreviousracewillmostlikelybewellwithintheircomfortzone,andwillperformwellasaresult.
Wecangetthisinformationfromthesamepageasourlastrule.Thelistshowsourhorsespreviousraces,andinthehighlightedareawecanseetheclassofthelastraceitranin.
BoroughBoyspreviousracewasclass5,whichisthesameastodaysraceandsoagainitqualifies.Onemoreruletogo...
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8.Ourhorse'slastracemusthavebeenahandicap
Thisisaninterestingfinalangleforoursystem,butneverthelessaneffectiveone.Ahorseisfirstallowedahandicapratingonceithasrunaminimumof3races.Thisappliestobothflatandjumpsracingseparately.
Sothereisanelementofincreasedexperienceatthetrackfromhorseswhohavepreviouslyruninhandicaps.Ihaveacoupleofadditionaltheoriesinthisareaincludingthecreationofvaluethroughhandicapping,andweightsadvantagesofpreviouslyhandicappedhorses.Butillnotboreyouwiththeintricatedetails
Goingthroughthebacktestingforthisrule,ithasprovedtoaprofitableangle.Withtheothersystemrulesapplied,horsespreviouslyracinginnonhandicapsshowalossof8.28points.Notthatsubstantial,butcomparedwithhorseswhosepreviousracewasahandicapthisshowsamassiveprofitof73.7points.
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Wecanactuallyuseourpreviousscreenshotagain,asthetypeofraceisshowndirectlyaftertheraceclass.
WearelookingspecificallyaHcnotationhere,andaswecanseeintheaboveexample,BoroughBoyslastracewasindeedahandicap.
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BoroughBoyhasqualifiedasanAllWeatherWinnersselectionunderoursystemrules.
Afterthedaysraces,wewilltakealooktoseehowourselectionperformed.
Aswecansee,BoroughBoywentontowinhisracewithrelativeease.
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RecommendedStaking
Althoughthissystemwillproducegreatprofitstolevelstakes,weencouragetheuseofaprogressivestakingplan.
Progressivestakingiswhenweincreaseourstakesasourbettingbankincreases,andreduceourstakeswhengoingthroughalosingperiod.Thiscanbeadvantageousasweaccelerateourprofitswhenthesystemisperformingwell,andreduceourlossesduringlosingruns.
Witha38.49%strikeratewecanbealittlemoreaggressivethanwithlowerstrikeratesystems,thereforewerecommendthefollowing:
3%Stakeplan,compoundedmonthly.
Thismeanswetakeourbettingbankatthestartofeachmonth,andmultiplythisby0.03.Thiswillbeourstakeperbetforthatmonth.Atthestart,ofthenextmonth,againwemultiplyournewbankbalanceby0.03togetanewstakeperbetforthatmonth.Heresanexampletoclarify:
Bettingbank:1000
1000x0.03=30
Stakeperbet:30
Usingaprogressivestakingplanwillallowustoincreasetheprofitsgeneratedfromthesystemexponentially.