Alicorp S.A.A. -...

CORPORATES

CREDIT OPINION31 May 2018

Update

RATINGS

Alicorp S.A.A.Domicile Peru

Long Term Rating Baa3

Type Senior Unsecured - FgnCurr

Outlook Stable

Please see the ratings section at the end of this reportfor more information. The ratings and outlook shownreflect information as of the publication date.

Analyst Contacts

Alonso Sanchez 52-55-1253-5706VP-Senior [email protected]

Marianna Waltz, CFA 55-11-3043-7309MD-Corporate [email protected]

CLIENT SERVICES

Americas 1-212-553-1653

Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077

Japan 81-3-5408-4100

EMEA 44-20-7772-5454

Alicorp S.A.A.Update to credit analysis - First quarter 2018

SummaryAlicorp’s rating is supported by its leading market position in Peru in key product categories,its high profitability and strong credit metrics; and its extensive and hard to replicatedistribution network. The rating also reflects its broad product portfolio, and its experiencedmanagement team with a successful track record of completing acquisitions. The ratingconsiders the company's small size compared to global industry peers, its limited geographicdiversity given its concentration in Peru and certain Latin American markets with weakeconomies, and its exposure to commodity price volatility.

Exhibit 1

EBITDA and EBITDA margin have improved steady since 2014.

752

497

781 814

943 974

12.9%

7.9%

11.9% 12.3%13.3% 13.4%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LTM 03/18

EBITDA - As Adj EBITDA Margin %

All ratios are based on 'Adjusted' financial data and incorporate Moody's Global Standard Adjustments for Non-FinancialCorporations.Source: Moody's Financial Metrics™

Credit Strengths

» High profitability despite smaller size when compared to global industry peers

» Leading market position in Peru, its largest market, with extensive and difficult toreplicate distribution network

» Good product diversification

Credit Challenges

» Modest geographic diversification

» Exposure to some weak economies in Latin America

» Event risk from M&A transactions

https://www.surveygizmo.com/s3/1133212/Rate-this-research?pubid=PBC_1125873

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

Rating OutlookAlicorp's stable outlook reflects our expectation that the company's operating performance and credit metrics will continue to bestrong.

Factors that Could Lead to an UpgradeAn upgrade could be triggered if the company's adj. debt/EBITDA is below 2.5 times and adj. EBIT/Interest Expense is above 5 times ona sustained basis. To be considered for an upgrade the company should maintain strong liquidity and positive free cash flow.

Factors that Could Lead to a DowngradeA downgrade could be triggered if the company's debt/EBITDA remains above 3.5 times or if EBIT/Interest Expense declines below 3.5times. A deterioration in liquidity or operating performance, increased payouts to shareholders, large debt financed acquisitions, orintegration challenges, could also lead to a downgrade.

Key Indicators

Exhibit 2

Alicorp, S.A.A.

US Millions Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

LTM

(Mar-18) Dec-18 (f) Dec-19 (f)

Revenue 2,155.8 2,214.3 2,069.1 1,964.4 2,178.2 2,234.5 2,536.0 2,900.0

EBIT Margin % 11.0% 5.8% 9.3% 9.7% 11.0% 11.2% 7.5% 7.9%

Debt / EBITDA 2.7x 5.5x 2.7x 2.0x 2.1x 1.9x 3.2x 2.7x

RCF / Net Debt 16.3% -2.0% 11.3% 22.8% 51.5% 52.4% 20.2% 21.5%

EBIT / Interest Expense 4.2x 2.0x 3.0x 4.8x 7.5x 7.8x 3.8x 4.5x

[1] All figures and ratios are calculated using Moody's estimates and standard adjustments. Moody's Forecasts (f) or Projections (proj.) are Moody's opinion and no not represent the viewsof the issuer. Periods are Financial Year-End unless indicated. LTM + Last Twelve Months.Source: Moody's Financial Metrics™

Corporate ProfileAlicorp, S.A.A., headquartered in Lima, is a Peruvian manufacturer and distributor of consumer goods (food, home & personal careproducts), business-to-business (B2B) branded products (bakeries, industrial products and food service) and aquaculture (shrimp andfish feed) with a total of 105 brands.

Alicorp has operations in Peru, Ecuador, Argentina, Chile, and Brazil and exports to 13 countries. Alicorp is public company and ismajority owned and controlled by Grupo Romero (45.8% stake), one of the largest conglomerates in Peru. The balance is owned bypension funds (26.4%), mutual funds (16.9%) and others (10.9%). Alicorp reported revenues of PEN7,106 million over the twelvemonths ended March 31, 2018.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 31 May 2018 Alicorp S.A.A.: Update to credit analysis - First quarter 2018


Exhibit 3

Alicorp's revenue breakdown by business lineLTM 1Q18

Exhibit 4

Alicorp's EBITDA breakdown by business lineLTM 1Q18

Consumer goods Peru37%

Consumer goods International 15%

B2B branded products 22%

Aquaculture26%

Source: Alicorp's corporate presentation, May 2018

Consumer goods Peru54%

B2B branded products 17%

Aquaculture29%

Source: Alicorp's corporate presentation, May 2018

Detailed Credit ConsiderationsLEADING MARKET POSITION IN PERU AND AMPLE DISTRIBUTION NETWORK

Alicorp has a leading market position in Peru in its key product categories that include industrial baking flour, industrial oils, edible oils,laundry detergents, pasta, cookies & crackers, shortenings, and mayonnaise, among others. In its international business, it also has astrong market position (ranking mostly #2 or #3) in product categories such as pasta, hair care, laundry detergents, personal care soap,and cereal. Despite competing with large multinational companies and with local enterprises, Alicorp has been able to maintain itsmarket leadership due to its: broad product portfolio targeting all socioeconomic segments; product innovation capacity; extensivedistribution network; and strong brand recognition.

The company has 105 brands including premium, mainstream, and value segmentation which allows it to reach a broader customerbase with differentiated pricing strategy. In Peru, the company has leading market positions in several product categories that accountfor around 54% of consolidated EBITDA. In Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia and Ecuador, the company has strong market shares in someproduct categories, ranking between #1 to #3 positions.

Alicorp’s countrywide distribution network in Peru is a credit strength. In Peru, the company sells its products through the traditional(83%) and modern (17%) channels. Alicorp sells to 3rd. party exclusive distributors (48%), wholesalers (25%), to non-exclusivedistributors (10%), and directly to supermarkets (17%). In Chile, Brazil, and Ecuador the company has key regions coverage through 3rd.party distributors while in Argentina it operates through a proprietary distribution network.

Alicorp benefits from economic growth and modest inflation that supports consumption in Peru. We estimate Peruvian GDP to growby 3.5% in 2018 and 2019 with inflation around 1.7% in 2018 and 2019. As a result, private consumption will grow by 3.4% in 2018and 4.1% in 2019.

AMPLE PRODUCT PORTFOLIO WITH GEOGRAPHIC DIVERSIFICATION

Alicorp´s products are sold under three different lines of business, which have different market dynamics: consumer goods (54% ofconsolidated EBITDA), B2B branded products (17% of consolidated EBITDA), and aquaculture (29% of consolidated EBITDA). Its largestbusiness segment, consumer goods is divided into two categories: food and home & personal care products, representing 65% and35% of this business segment revenues respectively.

Alicorp's diversification by product is high with each single product category representing less than 19% of consolidated EBITDA. Inconsumer goods in Peru, the largest category is laundry detergents with four leading brands and a 19% contribution to consolidatedEBITDA. Edible oils contribute with 9% to consolidated EBITDA and pasta with 6%. While in B2B, industrial oil accounts for 8% ofEBITDA.



Profitability of Alicorp's business segments have increased since 2015. EBITDA margin of consumer goods, the largest contributor torevenue, has grown to 13.8% over the twelve months ended March 31, 2018 from 12.6% in 2015. Similarly, aquaculture's EBITDAmargin increased to 14.7% over the twelve months ended March 31, 2018; up from 13.5% in 2015. Finally, the B2B segment postedan EBITDA margin of 10.9% over the twelve months ended March 31, 2018, which compares strongly with the 7.3% EBITDA margin in2015. These improvements are the result of Alicorp's cost saving programs, operating improvement such as plant automatization andconsolidation, as well as launching or acquiring new products with high margins and leading positions. Going forward, we expect thecompany to benefit from these strategies.

Exhibit 5

Revenues by businessExhibit 6

EBITDA margin by business

56% 56% 54% 52%54%

22% 23% 22% 22%

21%

22% 21%24% 26%

25%

6,580 6,629 7,101 7,106

7,749

2015 2016 2017 LTM 3/18 2018F

Consumer goods products B2B branded products Aquaculture

Alicorp's revenue guidance FY2018 by business.Source: Alicorp's Corporate Presentation May 2018 and earnings releases.

13.5%

12.7%

14.8% 14.7%

7.3%

9.7%

8.9%

10.9%

12.6%12.9%

13.2%13.8%

11.0%

12.1%

12.7%13.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

2015 2016 2017 LTM 3/18

Aquaculture B2B branded products

Consumer goods products Consolidated

EBITDA margin calculated by the company.Source: Alicorp's Corporate Presentation May 2018 and earnings releases.

Alicorp has expanded its international operations over the last few years, but Peru remains its largest market accounting for 61% ofconsolidated revenues. Alicorp has track record completing acquisitions. Since 2012, the company has successfully closed 7 M&Atransactions of local and international companies. Despite the beneficial effects from increased geographic diversification, thepresence in weaker economies such as Ecuador (B3 stable), Argentina (B2 stable) or Brazil (Ba2 stable) exposes Alicorp to inflationaryenvironments and foreign exchange volatility.

ACQUISITIONS IN BOLIVIA STRENGTHENS ALICORP'S INTERNATIONAL OPERATION

In May 2018, Alicorp announced it acquired 100% shares of Industrias del Aceite S.A. (FINO) and that it has already received approvalto acquire ADM-SAO (ADM) in Bolivia. We estimate Alicorp will pay between $390-$420 million for these acquisitions (purchase priceof FINO was $293 million) and will finance the transaction with cash on hand and the proceeds of a 4-year $400 million club dealloan.

We view the transaction as a credit positive as it increases Alicorp’s operation in Bolivia and strengthens its presence in the consumergoods and business-to-business (B2B) segments. Moody’s views these acquisitions to be in line with Alicorp’s business strategy asit will: (i) incorporate new leading brands to its product portfolio; (ii) add new product categories; and (iii) obtain cost benefits byincreasing its vertical integration in Bolivia.

These transactions strengthen Alicorp´s position in Bolivia (Ba3 stable) by adding a leading consumer products company, increasingits portfolio in key categories including edible oils, margarines, spreads, cooking fats and home care, and strengthening its verticalintegration. According to Euromonitor, edible oils sales will grow at 3.2% CAGR in Bolivia in 2017-2022 while spreads will grow at a3.4% CAGR in the same period of time. Currently, Alicorp’s presence in Bolivia covers certain products such as detergent, laundry soap,pasta, hair care and cereal which sales account for less than 1% of consolidated revenues. Nevertheless, pro-forma for the acquisition,Bolivia will become the second largest market for Alicorp and will contribute with 17.5% to its consolidated revenues and 13.5% ofconsolidated EBITDA.



Moody’s estimates Bolivia economy will grow 4% in 2018 and in 2019. With this transaction, Alicorp will acquire the largestdistribution network in Bolivia with around 25,000 points of sale, out of which 62% is in the traditional channel, 13% in the B2B, and7% through the modern channel. Alicorp’s expertise with a similar distribution model in Peru will allow the company to successfullyoperate this network in Bolivia. In addition, Alicorp will add to its operation the largest grain crushing installed capacity in Bolivia (4,770MT/day).

Exhibit 7

Alicorp's 2017 sales by countryExhibit 8

Alicorp's acquisitions increases materially revenue contribution ofBoliviaPro-forma for Bolivian acquisitions

Peru61.0%Ecuador

14.1%

Brazil 6.8%

Argentina6.7%

Bolivia 0.7%

Others10.7%

Source: Alicorp's Investors Presentation, January 2018.

Peru50.7%

Ecuador 11.7%

Brazil 5.7%

Argentina5.5%

Bolivia 17.5%

Others8.9%


Exhibit 9

Alicorp's 2017 sales by segmentExhibit 10

Alicorp's pro-forma sales by segment.

Consumer Products54%

Aquaculture24%

B2B22%


Consumer Products51%

Aquaculture20%

B2B18%

Crushing11%


LEVERAGE WILL INCREASE BUT WILL REMAIN ADEQUATE FOR THE RATING CATEGORY

The acquisition of Fino and ADM in Bolivia will add $400 million in long-term debt to Alicorp’s balance sheet. We estimate pro-formaadj. debt/EBITDA will increase to around 3.0-3.2 times. While higher than its actual level of 1.9 times over the twelve months endedMarch 31, 2018, pro-forma leverage will be still below our downgrade trigger. We estimate Alicorp will be able to reduce adj. debt/EBITDA below 3 times by year-end 2019 from higher EBITDA generation.

The company has increased its profitability over the last three years through operating efficiencies and improvement in its cashconversion cycle. EBITDA margin, as adjusted by Moody’s, has improved to 13.4% in the twelve months ended March 31, 2018 from7.9% in 2014. Alicorp's adj. EBITDA/Interest expense will decline to just over 6 times in 2018 when compared to 9.4 times over thetwelve months ended March 31, 2018.



Exhibit 11

Alicorp's leverage and interest coverage will be affected temporarily in 2018

2.7x

5.5x

2.7x

2.0x 2.1x 1.9x

3.2x2.7x

4.9x

2.7x

3.8x

6.2x

9.1x9.4x

6.2x

6.9x

0.0x

1.0x

2.0x

3.0x

4.0x

5.0x

6.0x

7.0x

8.0x

9.0x

10.0x

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LTM 3/18 2018F 2019F

Debt / EBITDA EBITDA / Interest Expense

All ratios are based on 'Adjusted' financial data and incorporate Moody's Global Standard Adjustments for Non-Financial Corporations.Source: Moody's Financial Metrics™

Alicorp has lowered its exposure to currency volatility by increasing its debt in local currency. As of March 31, 2018, Alicorp's total debtwas denominated in Peruvian Soles (96.5%), US Dollars (2.7%), and Brazilian Reais (0.8%).



Liquidity AnalysisAlicorp has adequate liquidity. As of March 31, 2018 the company had a cash position of PEN964 million ($331 million) that can cover1.2x its short-term debt. Its liquidity position is further supported by its strong free cash flow generation which has been positive over2015-2017 at an average of $200 million per year. In addition, the company has revolving uncommitted credit facilities to fund itsworking capital requirements totaling $988 million (70% available). Alicorp does not have committed credit facilities as it is not astandard practice in Peru. Alicorp’s long-term debt amortization includes PEN867 million due 2018, PEN97 million due 2019, PEN7million due 2020, PEN360 million due 2023, and PEN500 million due in 2025-2030.

Rating Methodology and Scorecard Factors

Exhibit 12

Rating FactorsAlicorp, S.A.A.

Consumer Packaged Goods Industry Grid [1][2]

Factor 1: Scale and Diversification (44%) Measure Score Measure Score

a) Total Sales (USD Billion) $2.2 Ba $2.9 Ba

b) Geographic Diversification B B B B

c) Segmental Diversification Baa Baa Baa Baa

Factor 2: Franchise Strength and Potential (14%)

a) Market Share A A A A

b) Category Assessment A A A A

Factor 3: Profitability (7%)

a) EBIT Margin 11.2% Ba 7.9% B

Factor 4: Financial Policy (14%)

a) Financial Policy Baa Baa Baa Baa

Factor 5: Leverage and Coverage (21%)

a) Debt / EBITDA 1.9x A 2.7x Baa

b) RCF / Net Debt 52.4% Aa 21.5% Baa

c) EBIT / Interest Expense 7.8x A 4.5x Baa

Rating:

a) Indicated Rating from Grid Baa2 Baa3

b) Actual Rating Assigned Baa3 Baa3

Current

LTM 3/31/2018

Moody's 12-18 Month Forward View

As of 5/29/2018 [3]

[1] All ratios are based on 'Adjusted' financial data and incorporate Moody's Global Standard Adjustments for Non-Financial Corporations.[2] As of 3/31/2018(L).[3] This represents Moody's forward view; not the view of the issuer; and unless noted in the text, does not incorporate significant acquisitions and divestitures.Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics™



Ratings

Exhibit 13Category Moody's RatingALICORP S.A.A.

Outlook StableSenior Unsecured Baa3

Source: Moody's Investors Service

Appendix

Exhibit 14

Peer comparison tableAlicorp, S.A.A.

(in US millions)

FYE

Dec-16

FYE

Dec-17

LTM

Mar-18

FYE

Dec-16

FYE

Dec-17

LTM

Mar-18

FYE

Dec-15

FYE

Dec-16

LTM

Sep-17

FYE

May-16

FYE

May-17

LTM

Feb-18

FYE

Dec-16

FYE

Dec-17

LTM

Dec-17

Revenue $1,964 $2,178 $2,234 $5,705 $6,056 $6,261 $13,849 $13,527 $13,945 $8,664 $7,827 $7,834 $3,927 $3,921 $3,921

EBITDA $241 $289 $300 $698 $696 $731 $1,760 $1,693 $1,633 $1,416 $1,496 $1,167 $573 $569 $569

Total Debt $481 $603 $571 $2,448 $2,717 $3,259 $5,645 $5,666 $6,045 $7,188 $3,939 $4,621 $1,505 $1,326 $1,326

Cash & Cash Equiv. $82 $322 $299 $623 $655 $1,049 $221 $331 $313 $798 $251 $133 $6 $5 $5

EBIT Margin 9.7% 11.0% 11.2% 8.4% 7.7% 7.8% 7.8% 7.9% 7.2% 12.4% 14.9% 10.8% 9.0% 8.7% 8.7%

EBIT / Int. Exp. 4.8x 7.5x 7.8x 4.0x 3.0x 3.8x 3.2x 3.2x 2.9x 3.2x 4.8x 4.6x 6.6x 6.3x 6.3x

Debt / EBITDA 2.0x 2.1x 1.9x 3.9x 4.0x 4.4x 3.5x 3.7x 3.5x 5.1x 2.6x 4.0x 2.6x 2.3x 2.3x

RCF / Net Debt 22.8% 51.5% 52.4% 25.5% 12.1% 14.7% 20.4% 19.9% 19.7% 19.3% 19.8% 21.2% 19.7% 17.6% 17.6%

FCF / Debt 39.6% 31.3% 19.8% 13.5% 0.5% 0.3% 5.1% 4.6% 1.8% 7.6% 15.9% 14.6% 8.3% 6.2% 6.2%

Alicorp, S.A.A. Sigma Alimentos S.A. de C.V. Grupo Bimbo, S.A.B. de C.V. Conagra Brands, Inc. Flowers Foods, Inc.

Baa3 Stable Baa3 Stable Baa2 Stable Baa2 Stable Baa2 Stable

All figures & ratios calculated using Moody’s estimates & standard adjustments. FYE = Financial Year-End. LTM = Last Twelve Months. RUR* = Ratings under Review, where UPG = forupgrade and DNG = for downgrade.Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics™

Exhibit 15

Moody's-Adjusted Debt BreakdownAlicorp, S.A.A.

(in US Millions)

FYE

Dec-13

FYE

Dec-14

FYE

Dec-15

FYE

Dec-16

FYE

Dec-17

LTM Ending

Mar-18

As Reported Debt 732.1 926.1 607.0 481.2 602.8 570.5

Pensions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Operating Leases 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Moody's-Adjusted Debt 732.1 926.1 607.0 481.2 602.8 570.5

All figures are calculated using Moody’s estimates and standard adjustments.Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics™

Exhibit 16

Moody's-Adjusted EBITDA BreakdownAlicorp, S.A.A.

(in US Millions)

FYE

Dec-13

FYE

Dec-14

FYE

Dec-15

FYE

Dec-16

FYE

Dec-17

LTM Ending

Mar-18

As Reported EBITDA 240.0 131.7 190.2 227.8 278.6 290.3

Pensions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Operating Leases 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Unusual 38.2 43.4 53.2 13.7 9.8 8.6

Non-Standard Adjustments 0.6 0.2 2.1 -0.3 0.9 0.9

Moody's-Adjusted EBITDA 278.8 175.3 245.4 241.2 289.4 299.8

All figures are calculated using Moody’s estimates and standard adjustments.Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics™



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Additional terms for Japan only: Moody's Japan K.K. (“MJKK”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly-owned by Moody’sOverseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO. Moody’s SF Japan K.K. (“MSFJ”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK. MSFJ is not a NationallyRecognized Statistical Rating Organization (“NRSRO”). Therefore, credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings. Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by anentity that is not a NRSRO and, consequently, the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under U.S. laws. MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registeredwith the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No. 2 and 3 respectively.

MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferredstock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for appraisal and rating services rendered by it feesranging from JPY200,000 to approximately JPY350,000,000.

MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.

REPORT NUMBER 1125873


http://www.moodys.com


Analyst Contacts

Diana Gonzalez 52-55-1555-5305Associate [email protected]

CLIENT SERVICES

Americas 1-212-553-1653

Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077

Japan 81-3-5408-4100

EMEA 44-20-7772-5454


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