ALASKA CONSTRUCTION SPENDING: 2018FORECAST · $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 2001 2003...

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ALASKA CONSTRUCTION SPENDING : 2018 FORECAST Sco9 Goldsmith Emeritus Professor of Economics, Ins1tute of Social and Economic Research Resource Development Council March 15, 2018 Anchorage

Transcript of ALASKA CONSTRUCTION SPENDING: 2018FORECAST · $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 2001 2003...

Page 1: ALASKA CONSTRUCTION SPENDING: 2018FORECAST · $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 State.Govt.Capital.Appropriation:. From.Own.Sources.(Million.2018.$)

ALASKA  CONSTRUCTION  SPENDING  :  

2018  FORECAST      

Sco9  Goldsmith  Emeritus  Professor  of  Economics,  Ins1tute  of  Social  and  Economic  

Research    

Resource  Development  

Council  March  15,  2018  Anchorage  

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•  Official Count (DOL) •  Self Employed •  Hidden in Other Industries

Construction Employment

Construction Muscle

•  Backward Linkages •  Statewide Presence

INVESTMENT

THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE OF THE CONSTRUCTION

INDUSTRY

$$$$$$$$$$$$

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Page 4: ALASKA CONSTRUCTION SPENDING: 2018FORECAST · $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 State.Govt.Capital.Appropriation:. From.Own.Sources.(Million.2018.$)
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STATE / LOCAL GOVERNMENT

ü  $$$$ ü  Competing Needs ü  Justification

“CHALLENGED” $ 593

-14%

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$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

State  Govt  Capital  Appropriation:  From  Own  Sources  (Million  2018  $)

GENERAL  FUND OTHER GO  BONDS

State Capital Budget and GO Bonds

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What’s a Reasonable Capital Budget from State Funds?

ü  Federal Match ü  Deferred Maintenance--Current ü  Deferred Maintenance--Backlog ü  K-12 Education ü  Local Infrastructure Needs ü  Economic Development

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$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027

Million  $

Fiscal  Year

UNRESTRICTED  GENERAL  FUND  REVENUE:  FORECAST

Fall  2015 Fall  2016 Fall  2017

Page 10: ALASKA CONSTRUCTION SPENDING: 2018FORECAST · $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 State.Govt.Capital.Appropriation:. From.Own.Sources.(Million.2018.$)

Alaska Economic Recovery Plan

Page 11: ALASKA CONSTRUCTION SPENDING: 2018FORECAST · $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 State.Govt.Capital.Appropriation:. From.Own.Sources.(Million.2018.$)
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NON OIL BASIC

ü  World Economy ü  Commodity Prices ü  State Policy ü  Federal Policy

“OPTIMISTIC”

$ 349

+7%

Page 13: ALASKA CONSTRUCTION SPENDING: 2018FORECAST · $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 State.Govt.Capital.Appropriation:. From.Own.Sources.(Million.2018.$)

Zinc  Price  

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Residential / Commercial

OTHER PRIVATE part 1

$ 350

-17%

ü  Jobs ü  Population ü  Income ü  Fiscal Gap

“SHRINKING”

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Economic Forecast

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Health Care / Utilities

OTHER PRIVATE part 2

$ 814

-3%

“MIXED”

ü  Population ü  Jobs ü  Income ü  Fiscal Gap ü  Federal Policy

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FEDERAL CIVILIAN

ü  Infrastructure Plan?

“STABLE” $ 1,276

+2%

Transportation / Health Care / Misc Grants / Procurement

Page 18: ALASKA CONSTRUCTION SPENDING: 2018FORECAST · $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 State.Govt.Capital.Appropriation:. From.Own.Sources.(Million.2018.$)

NATIONAL DEFENSE

$ 630

+11% “POSITIVE”

Missile Defense / F35 Bed-down

ü  Federal Policy

Page 19: ALASKA CONSTRUCTION SPENDING: 2018FORECAST · $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 State.Govt.Capital.Appropriation:. From.Own.Sources.(Million.2018.$)
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PETROLEUM

ü  Price ü  Project Inventory ü  New Discoveries ü  Federal Policy ü  Cost Control ü  Technology ü  State Policy ü  Price

“POSITIVE”

$ 2,555

+15%

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$0

$25

$50

$75

$100

$125

$  pe

r  Barrel

ANS  WEST  COAST  OIL  PRICE  

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Petroleum  :  Project  Inventory  

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Nanushuk  in  NPRA  

8.7  Billion  Barrels  of  Recoverable  Oil!  

Page 24: ALASKA CONSTRUCTION SPENDING: 2018FORECAST · $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 State.Govt.Capital.Appropriation:. From.Own.Sources.(Million.2018.$)

Short-term Outlook?

-2%

Page 25: ALASKA CONSTRUCTION SPENDING: 2018FORECAST · $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 State.Govt.Capital.Appropriation:. From.Own.Sources.(Million.2018.$)

Longer Term Outlook

+

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Questions?


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