Alaska Accountability Adequate Yearly Progress January 2008, Updated.

Alaska Accountability

Adequate Yearly ProgressJanuary 2008, Updated

Adequate Yearly Progress

What is AYP?

How is AYP determined?

What is AYP?

“No Child Left Behind” and AYP

AYP is part of NCLB (PL 107-110) signed into law on January 8, 2002.

AYP is the accountability framework to ensure that states, districts, and schools make satisfactory progress on the implementation of a standards and assessments reform model.

Must be designed to narrow achievement gaps. Assessments must be a primary factor in the measure. Includes all students and all schools! Goal is all students will be proficient by 2013-2014.

What is AYP?

ADEQUATE YEARLY PROGRESS MEASURES:

Participation of all 3rd-10th grade students in assessments, including alternate assessment.

Performance for all students grades 3-10 (at the school level only those enrolled for the full academic year) in language arts (reading & writing) and mathematics.

Graduation or attendance rate.


PARTICIPATION95% student participation rate for school, OR if the

school has 1-40 students and 2 or fewer miss, the school has satisfied AYP participation.

95% participation for each sub-group. Sub-group of 0-20 satisfies requirement. Sub-group of 21-40: if no more than two students do not

participate, participation is satisfied.Participation rate may be averaged for two or three

consecutive years to meet the 95% requirement.


SUBGROUPS Student Ethnicity (6 Groups)

African American Alaska Native / American Indian Asian Caucasian Hispanic Multi-ethnic

Economically Disadvantaged Student with Disabilities Limited English Proficient


PERFORMANCEMeet or exceed the lower bound of the

99% confidence interval around the AMO in: Language Arts Mathematics

*AMO: Annual Measurable Objective


Performance:

School designation based on full academic year students (October 1 to 1st day of testing).

Minimum “N” = 25 students enrolled, therefore the subgroup is included in the AYP determination when there are 26 students in that group.

Confidence interval to determine if the performance score meets or exceeds the lower bound of the 99% confidence interval around the AMO.


CONFIDENCE INTERVAL

By using a confidence interval we can conclude that a school or subgroup did not meet the AMO for that year if the school subgroups performance score lies outside the lower bound of the confidence interval of the AMO.

Confidence interval is similar to a public poll on an issue or political campaign when they indicate that candidate “A” has 52% support versus candidate “B” with 48% support of likely voters, plus or minus a 5% margin of error.


AMO Starting Point

A new statewide AMO starting point on school performance was computed using 2005 data based on the new assessment program.

The 20th percentile method was used to calculate the starting point Rank the school from lowest to highest performance by the percent

proficient within the school. The AMO is percent proficient in the school wherein the 20th percentile

student is enrolled. For “language arts” the value is 71.48%. For mathematics the value is 57.61%. The AMO increases over time to the value of 100% by 2013-2014.


School Year AMO for Language Arts AMO for Mathematics

2001-02 64.03% 54.86%

2002-03 64.03% 54.86%

2003-04 64.03% 54.86%

2004-05 71.48% 57.61%

2005-06 71.48% 57.61%

2006-07 71.48% 57.61%

2007-08 77.18% 66.09%

2008-09 77.18% 66.09%

2009-10 77.18% 66.09%

2010-11 82.88% 74.57%

2011-12 88.58% 83.05%

2012-13 94.28% 91.53%

2013-14 100% 100%


OTHER ACADEMIC INDICATOR

Schools must meet the other indicator threshold or show improvement from the previous year.

All schools with 12th grade must use graduation rate as the: The 2003 grad rate = # grads in 2003 divided by (# grads in 2003 + #

12th grade dropouts in 2003 + # 11th grade dropouts in 2002 + # 10th grade dropouts in 2001 + # 9th grade dropouts in 2000 + # of 2003 12th graders who did not graduate). Threshold value is 55.58%.

For all other schools: Attendance rate is the other academic indicator for schools who do

not graduate students. Threshold value is 85%.


IMPROVEMENT PROVISION If a school or subgroup does not meet the AMO, they can meet

AYP through the improvement or “Safe Harbor” provision if the school meets participation in all categories, the other indicator, and:

School or subgroup shows improvement by having a 10% reduction in the percent not proficient from the previous year performance data or falls within the lower bound of a 75% confidence interval of a 10% reduction in percent not proficient from the previous year.

The subgroup meets the other academic indicator.

Adequate Yearly Growth (AYG)

Individual Student Growth Beginning in 2007 Alaska received approval to incorporate

individual student growth into the calculation of adequate yearly progress

Once AYP is calculated as previously outlined then AYG is calculated for each school

If a school meets either through the calculation of AYP or through the AYP calculation that school has meet adequate yearly progress


Individual Student Growth AYG is calculated by determining which students are “on track

to become Proficient”, which is defined as a student who increased achievement at a rate that would cause that student to become proficient within four years or no later than 10th grade

The “on track to become Proficient” students are added to the Proficient students for the school and in each subgroup, and that percentage is compared to the AMO

Confidence intervals and safe harbor are not used when determining AYP


Individual Student Growth To determine if a students is “on track to become Proficient”

regression is calculated based on the prior year scale score to determine a students estimated true score (ETS)

If the student in the current year exceeded the ETS and met the target score the student is “on track to become Proficient”

Proficient students who score in the current year below their ETS from the prior year are reported as Proficient students who have a score that declined

Example of AYG Report

Proficient students PLUS on

track to become proficient

Equals

Students proficient in both years who declined where regression was not the cause

How do we look at AYP Growth

Individual stu

dent

scale scores

5th 6th 7th 8th

4th

Requested Amendment

Requests are pending U.S. Department of Education and State Board approval for use in 2008

1. Inclusion of students formerly categorized within prior two years, as students with disabilities

If SWD in participation rate in 2007, but not in ’08 or 09 the district would code as former students in participation rate

2. Graduation rate calculation to include Averaging for 1 or 2 consecutive years Aggregation of cohort to meet >25 If above does not provide sufficient data review to determine if there is a

positive trend toward the target & ensure 2 or fewer students does not cause school to miss AYP

Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP)

Clear Goals and Targets.

Drives Learning Opportunities for ALL.

A 12-Year Plan!

Alaska Accountability Adequate Yearly Progress January 2008, Updated.

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