Alan F. Blumberg and Nickitas Georgas Davidson Laboratory August 22 -23, 2013.
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Transcript of Alan F. Blumberg and Nickitas Georgas Davidson Laboratory August 22 -23, 2013.
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Providing Environmental Awareness for the Urban
Ocean
Alan F. Blumberg and
Nickitas Georgas
Davidson Laboratory August 22 -23, 2013
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New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System
Integrated system of observing sensors and forecast modelsTO OBSERVE TO PREDICTTO COMMUNICATE Weather Currents Water Level Salinity Temperature Waves
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3D Circulation Model (ECOM/POM-derived):Boussinesq, Hydrostatic, Primitive Equation, Sigma Coordinate
ModelMode Splitting: 10 external/internal steps, Δte=1sec. Smagorinksy lateral diffusion: HORCON=0.01, Prandtl
Number=1000!Mellor-Yamada 2.5-Kl vertical closure: UMOL=10-6 m2/s.Bottom stress: CDmin=3x10-3, z0=10-
3m, everywhere!*Modified by dynamic wave boundary layer (Grant-Madsen)!
Surface Wind Stress: Large and Pond 1982.Barometric Pressure Gradient forcing: Switched off.2D Surface Heat Fluxes: Ahsan and Blumberg, QUAL-2E-type.
*Modified for 10m winds, generalized for UTC or local time coordinate.
Robust, explicit, wetting and drying.
Dynamically Coupled, Surface Wind Wave Model (GLERL-derived):Empirical Wave Momentum Model, JONSWAP spectrum.Wind-wave growth equation: γ=2.8%, CDs=0.7x10-3,
,z0w=σ/5.Incl. Bottom dissipation: fw=0.04Incl. Depth-induced breaking: γB=0.8261 (Longuet-Higgins and
Fenton, 1974).*Dynamic depth from circulation model.
Incl. Offshore wave boundary condition. Adopted new dispersion eqn. for shallows.
Included and validated Thin Dams (obstruction grids).Standardized, CF-protocol-compliant, NetCDF Outputs.
sECOM Hydrodynamic Model. NYHOPS App.
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Bathymetry:Over 1M soundings!
Resolution: 4km -> 25m
DE
NJ
CT RINY
NYC
NYHOPS Forecast Model _ it is all about realism! 3D General Circulation Model dynamically coupled with Surface Wind-Wave modelInput forcing:(O): Observed(F): Forecasted(H): Historic Tides (O+F) NOS Offshore Surge and Steric (O+F) NOS Offshore Waves (O+F) Surface Winds (O+F) NAM 12km Heating and Cooling (O+F) 239 Rivers and Streams (O+F) NERFC 280 Major Dischargers (H) River Ice (O+F)
Output: hindcasts+forecasts 4x/day Results every 10min, since 2006.Total water level.3D Currents, Salinity, Temperature.Significant wave height and wave period. Colored DOM and light absorption.
+
1967
+Real timeObservatio
ns
External dataand models
Distributed Inflows and Effluents
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A fully automated system of systems
New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System
0.5 hrs + 1.5 hrs + 2.0 hrs
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ValidationEvery model has errors. Validation tells us that they are sufficiently small.
Adopted NOAA/NOS Model Evaluation Software (DB-MEE).2 years of recent in situ data: 2007-2009; 6+ years of real-time experienceOver 100 local stations (Georgas and Blumberg ‘10, DiLiberto et al ’11, etc.)T/S vertical transect profiles from gliders (Georgas and Blumberg ‘08)Satellite SST comparisons (Bhushan ‘09, Bhushan, Blumberg, Georgas ‘10)HF-radar (Gopalakrishnan ‘11) and surface drifters (Blumberg et al, forthcoming).
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Marine Search and Rescue (SAR) Missions…………
NY/NJ Harbor Commercial Pilots & Schedulers (Harbor Pilots Associations, Marine Transportation)……………
Recreational Boaters (Regattas, Kayaks,…)………………..
Coastal Flooding Responders (PD, FEMA, NWS)……
Scientists/Engineers……
NYHOPS supports:
New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System
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Sandysurge Post-Sandy
Nor’easter
1
Totals for Sandy’s forecast period: 30,334 unique hits.
The NYHOPS/SSWS forecast water elevation (posted Saturday at 6am): - Along coast of NJ/NY and all
of the Hudson River were within 5%,
- the Battery, NY was low by 20%,
- Long Island Sound was low by 10%
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ConclusionsNYHOPS established as an urban ocean forecast system –
large following – extensive validationMARACOOS assets a blessing – hf radar, drifters, gliders
and “met forcing”Need more robust assimilation – bring in mobile sensors,
including truncated fisheries dataNeed better offshore boundary forcingStudy wave and wave-driven set-up modelingFaster code… offsite mirroring… online data storeThank you NWS & NCEP & NOS– great operational
productsLinks needed to National Hurricane Center collection of
hurricane models;Include infrastructure ensembles/probabilistic forecasts;
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Thank You! [email protected]