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Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Syria-7

Previous: Boots on the Ground Turkey Plans to Send Troops Into Syria, Widening the War

A possible scenario for the aftermath of the fall of Damascus is the infighting between these two terror groups. If that happens or a new civil war breaks out, the region and the world would be spared an imminent and great danger. Imagine you wake up to hear that another caliph has appeared somewhere else.... I say to those who complain about what is going on in our region: you haven't seen anything yet. Civil wars don't end suddenly, unless there is a victory that left many massacred,” says Harith Hasan,

Defeating Isis in Syria is essential to prevent catastrophe Islamic State (Isis) is the catastrophic consequence of political illegitimacy in Iraq and Syria. In Iraq, the prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, created a governance vacuum. With the unflagging support of Iran, he disenfranchised and alienated Sunni Arabs through narrow, partisan and utterly sectarian policies. In Syria the vacuum’s creator is Bashar al-Assad – with the enthusiastic backing of Iran, he pursues a political survival strategy of collective punishment, featuring mass homicide focused on civilians. Legitimate governance in both places may be a long way off.

Attempts to embellish Al-Nusra Front and include it within the Syrian revolutionary camp have failed, despite all the sponsorship and armaments the party has received, and despite its portrayal as less brutal than the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Both are terrorist and extensions of Al-Qaeda. ISIS is an extension of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi who was killed in Iraq, while Al-Nusra officially follows Ayman al-Zawahiri, Al-Qaeda’s current leader.There are three parties fighting in Syria today: the regime and its allies, terrorist groups such as ISIS and Al-Nusra, and the national and moderate opposition, of which the biggest party is the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Those who support these parties are three; the first is Iran and it supports the Assad regime, the second party supports the national moderate opposition and the third supports terrorist opposition groups, specifically al-Nusra. The latter party thought it was smart and thus decided to tame either of the two beasts. It chose al-Nusra because unlike ISIS, it did not broadcast horrific videos and accepted to negotiate and bargain.Al-Nusra’s aims have nothing to do with the demands of Syrians during their revolution. Its aim is to establish a state that competes against ISIS. Despite the clear differences between patriotism and terrorism, some foreign parties support Al-Nusra in the belief that they can control this wild beast until the crisis is over, then just get rid of it. Al-Nusra’s command was smarter than that of ISIS, as it humored those foreign parties and made compromises over those it kidnapped and did not slaughter them all. As a reward it was not pursued, and the movement of its fighters across borders was overlooked. Those strategists who think only of how to resolve today’s problem are turning a blind eye to the destructive results that will come tomorrow. They are repeating what happened two decades ago, when some parties fully supported Hezbollah and certain defecting Palestinian groups until they became a graver threat against Lebanon and Palestine.

Are we now approaching the beginning of the end game in the battle against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)? This "existential battle" and the fight of our generation that we must win, according to the UK Prime Minister David Cameron, appear to now have grabbed the attention of all "free world" leaders.

The People's Protection Units (YPG) - the military wing of Syrian Kurds' Democratic

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Union Party - and Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga forces have demonstrated unequivocally that they have fighting spirit. And with the help from coalition air strikes, they have been successful in defeating ISIL in tactical engagements.

This is a good building block to be "a" or even "the" key element of a coalition plan to fight ISIL. However, tactical successes must be turned into multiple and strategic victories in order to lead a comprehensive defeat of ISIL and bring some sort of global harmony.

What YPG, Peshmerga, and FSA lack is a comprehensive understanding of the "all arms battle" needed to defeat ISIL.

It is highly likely that Syrian and Iraqi Kurds in particular, will be after further autonomy, with the Iraqi Kurds pushing hard for an independent Kurdistan.

"When areas in northern Syria are cleared of the (ISIL) threat, the safe zones will be formed naturally," Cavusoglu told a news conference. "We have always defended safe zones and no-fly zones in Syria. People who have been displaced can be placed in those safe zones."

Several Turkish media outlets had earlier reported the government was considering setting up a 33km-wide safe zone inside Syria, stretching from the outskirts of Kurdish-held Kobane to areas controlled by pro-Western rebel groups.

"There is a lack of human resources" in the army, Assad said. "But that doesn't mean we can talk about collapse," he added. "We will resist... The armed forces are capable of defending the motherland."

The bottom line, so far, is that only the Kurds, moderate Syrians and Iraqis on the ground seem to be the most effective to defeat ISIL. The Kurds should be the focus of the coalition's support if we are going to see any sort of peace in the short to medium term. In this most complex of theatres of war, the PKK and Turkish conflagration is no more ruinous than the challenges of the FSA, the Assad regime, and the al-Qaeda and ISIL fight. Let us hope it does not derail the global coalition attack against ISIL. This is a war which our generation, globally, just cannot afford to lose.

Islamic State (Isis) is the catastrophic consequence of political illegitimacy in Iraq and Syria. In Iraq, the prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, created a governance vacuum. With the unflagging support of Iran, he disenfranchised and alienated Sunni Arabs through narrow, partisan and utterly sectarian policies. In Syria the vacuum’s creator is Bashar al-Assad – with the enthusiastic backing of Iran, he pursues a political survival strategy of collective punishment, featuring mass homicide focused on civilians. Legitimate governance in both places may be a long way off. But keeping Isis from sinking roots in Syria is an urgent priority, which, if unmet, will enable this criminal band to sustain its combat operations in Iraq from a secure rear area where it will also menace Turkey and Jordan. olitical legitimacy – a condition in which the citizenry agrees on the rules of the political game – is a tall order for the two countries in question. Can Iraq survive as a state, even as a confederation? Is there a future for Syria within borders drawn during the colonial era? Surely a stable, peaceful and confederated Iraq is not right around the corner. And for Syria, reconstruction, reform, and reconciliation may be generational undertakings.No doubt the process of overcoming the conditions that made large swaths of Iraq and Syria safe for Isis will be a long one. The hardships associated with this process will be borne in large measure by Syrians and Iraqis. Yet to admit that the struggle for political legitimacy will be extended is not to say that the battle against Isis must be a multi-year engagement. Indeed, in Syria it must not be, as this deadly combination of al-Qaida and Saddam Hussein loyalists seeks to establish itself in a country where it has no natural constituency.In Iraq Isis has the advantage of local allies: Sunni Arabs disenfranchised by Maliki and his

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Iranian backers. In Syria Isis lacks a popular base, and its principal enabler has been the Assad regime. Unless Isis sees something it wants that Assad has – an oil field, a weapons-rich military base, or a town filled with priceless antiquities – it and the regime pursue a live-and-let-live arrangement. Each tries instead to eliminate alternatives to itself and the other. Each, for its own reasons, wishes to be one of the two last political entities standing in Syria. For Assad, facing Isis alone could be his ticket back to polite society: an enemy so loathsome as to be able to appear worse than him. For “caliph” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, facing Assad alone – especially if the regime and the west make common cause – would be a recruiting bonanza. Assad is the cause of Syria’s legitimacy crisis. Isis, aside from the humanitarian catastrophe spawned by Assad, is the principal effect. Assad’s barrel bombs and starvation sieges are gifts of incalculable value to Isis. And Isis’s subjugation of eastern Syria is essential to sustain the group’s military operations in Iraq.As the anti-Isis coalition struggles to strangle the organisation in Syria, the Assad regime pumps oxygen into its lungsWashington, London and Paris have found sorting this out to be difficult. They know that it is the Assad regime’s malfeasance that has made eastern Syria safe for Isis. And yet the regime has been given a bye. It was Iran’s dual role as the Isis-abetting facilitator of Assad-regime atrocities and as an interlocutor in nuclear talks – a role Tehran handled with ease – that caused the west to freeze. Should it demand that Iran gets its Syrian client out of the business of mass homicide? Throw sand in the gears of the Assad regime’s barrel-bombing campaign? What? Risk tempting Iran’s supreme leader to walk away from the nuclear talks (and hundreds of billions of dollars in sanctions relief and investment)? The Assad regime was left free to do its worst. The result has been a recruiting lifeline to Isis, one offset only in part by an anti-Isis air campaign and a Kurdish militia ground-combat component. As the anti-Isis coalition struggles to strangle the organisation in Syria, the Assad regime pumps oxygen into the caliph’s lungs.An agreed strategy for Syria in which western and regional oarsmen all pull in the same direction is long overdue. Key near-term aims could be to introduce regional ground forces into eastern Syria to rout Isis and stand up a new Syrian government, while stopping Assad regime barrel bombs and strikes on residential areas in western Syria. If the desired end in Syria is a negotiated political solution, Isis must be beaten militarily and the regime atrocities stopped. Otherwise there is no basis for talks.Legitimate governance for all of Syria – and for that matter all of Iraq – is a long way off. Defeating Isis in Syria – where its lack of a popular base makes it most vulnerable – is the essential first step. Time is of the essence. The Assad-abetted Isis malignancy makes time the enemy.

US-trained Syrian fighters refusing to fightDivision 30 is accusing Pentagon of misrepresenting its mission, saying they signed up to fight ISIL not al-Nusra Front.07 Aug 2015 Syrian fighters trained by the United States are now refusing to fight. In the past few days, five of the US backed recruits have been detained by the al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Nusra Front. A sixth recruit has reportedly been killed.The US-backed group, Division 30, is accusing the Pentagon of misrepresenting its mission. The fighters say they signed up to battle the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), not the al-Nusra Front. The group is also opposed to US air strikes carried out on al-Nusra Front fighters in recent days. In a statement, the Pentagon denied it distorted its battle plan. The 54-strong rebel unit, trained and equipped by the Pentagon, was inserted into Aleppo province in mid-July as part of US plans to forge a moderate force for the campaign

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against the ISIL. But despite al-Nusra's fierce hostility of ISIL, fighters from the Division 30 soon came under attack by the al-Qaeda loyalists, who believe that the US-backed battalion would end up battling them. Al-Nusra is considered a terrorist organisation by the US and other Western countries. Despite the apparent failure of the plan, the Pentagon has defended its decision to recruit fighters in Syria, saying that the challenges "have not significantly encumbered" their strategy in the country.The US last month admitted it trained no more than 60 Syrian opposition fighters to battle ISIL, far below expectations, Defence Secretary Ash Carter told Congress. The programme, which launched in May in Jordan and Turkey, was designed to train as many as 5,400 fighters a year. Washington admitted it could not train more than 60 fighters, citing rigorous vetting of recruits.

ISIL 'kidnaps scores of Christians' in Syria's HomsActivist group says fighters have kidnapped 230 people, including 60 Christians, after seizing strategic town in Homs.07 Aug 2015 Fighters from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) have abducted scores of people, including several Christian families, after seizing a strategically located town in the central Syrian province of Homs, an activist group has said.The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said on Friday that at least 230 people had been kidnapped, including 60 Christians, some of whom were taken from a church in Qaryatain, which was captured overnight after heavy fighting with the Syrian army.Qaryatain is near a road linking the ancient city of Palmyra to the Qalamoun mountains, along the border with Lebanon. ISIL started the attack on Wednesday morning when three suicide bombers targeted pro-regime checkpoints at entrances to the city, the observatory said."IS[IL] seized Al-Qaryatain town in the southeastern countryside of Homs after violent clashes with pro-regime forces and loyalist fighters," SOHR head Rami Abdel Rahman said.A total of 37 regime soldiers and loyalist fighters were killed, while 23 ISIL fighters also died, Abdel Rahman said. Conflict death toll ISIL has destroyed many churches and Christian shrines in Syria, and demanded that Christians living under its rule pay a tax known as jizya. The ongoing clashes between government troops and ISIL are one of many fronts in Syria's war, which has left more than 240,000 people dead since it began in March 2011, according to the SOHR

Aug 6, Hezbollah killed a senior Nusra Front commander in Zabadani, a security source said, as Ahrar al-Sham halted its negotiations with the party and the Syrian regime and 14 Syrian rebels surrendered to the Lebanese group. -- Seven members of Syria's Al-Qaeda-affiliated Al-Nusra Front, including commanders, were killed in American-led air strikes Wednesday in the northwest of the conflict-riven country, a Britain-based monitoring group said, according to AFP. The raids in Syria, which began last September, have mainly focused on the Islamic State group (ISIS) but its rival Al-Nusra has also been the target of some strikes. "Seven Al-Nusra members, including commanders, were killed in at least five coalition air strikes against the group's bases and a vehicle in Idlib province," the director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Rami Abdel Rahman, told AFP.

Aleppo, Syria Aug 6– "We have indications members of the New Syrian Forces have been detained by al-Nusra Front in Syria," U.S. Defense Department Spokeswoman Elissa Smith told Anadolu Agency.  "We are monitoring the situation but have no further details to provide," Smith added. Local sources said that the Turkmen-dominated group of ‘train-and-equip’ fighters were held by al-Nusra on Wednesday night.A group of Islamist fighters infiltrated into the Kurdish city of Afrin in Aleppo province,

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north Syria. Subsequently, clashes broke out between Kurdish security forces and the militants in the vicinity of Ashrafiyah district in Afrin, security sources reported on Wednesday.   “At least ten militants of the al-Nusra Front (Syria’s branch of al-Qaeda) were able to infiltrate into Ashrafiyah district in Afrin in preparation to carry out suicide attacks against Kurdish security centers in the city,” a member of the Asayish security forces told ARA News.   Abdul Rahman Ibrahim, an eyewitness from Ashrafiyah, said that a group of militants entered the district on Wednesday morning, “and when members of the Asayish security forces started patrolling the district, the militants opened fire, which led to fierce clashes.”“The militants came to Afrin from Azaz city,” Ibrahim said. “A number of Nusra leaders disclosed they prepare to storm Afrin through Azaz frontline, vowing to use car bomb attacks at any time,” a source close to the Nusra Front in Azaz told ARA News.

Islamic State (IS) militants have captured al-Qaryatain town, in the province of Homs, from pro-government forces, reports say.6 Aug, The militants launched the attack with suicide bombings at the town's checkpoints, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a UK-based monitoring group. It said the capture of the town links IS-held Palmyra with the Qalamun area. Al-Qaryatain was captured in the militants' first major offensive since May, when they seized the historic town of Palmyra, famed for its Roman-style ruins. The town is thought to have a mixed population of around 40,000 people, including Sunni Muslims and Christians, as well as thousands of people who have fled fighting elsewhere in the country.According to the SOHR, the capture of the town could help IS move fighters and material between Palmyra and territory that it controls in Qalamun, to the west.

Jul 28, Abu Hamza al-Zoubi, the leader of Shura Council in al-Nusra Front terrorist group – Al-Qaeda branch in Syria, was killed in a suicide attack he carried out in Sahl al-Ghab (valley of the forest) region in Syria, sources in the Lebanese Northern region in Tripoli city announced Tuesday. “Now, I will take a rest from the group’s problems and internal splits, and will determine my destiny myself,” Zoubi said in his latest post on online social accounts.

Jul 31, Afrin, Syria – Clashes broke out on Thursday between militants of al-Nusra Front and Kurdish forces of the People’s Protection Units (YPG) in the countryside of Afrin in Aleppo province, northern Syria, local activists reported. The clashes erupted as the Nusra Front’s fighters assaulted some Kurdish villagers in the vicinity of Atama village and the town of Jenderis in the countryside of Afrin, media activist Sardar Khalil told ARA News in Afrin. “When YPG fighters intervened to protect the villagers, who were assaulted by Nusra militants while working in their farms, the jihadist group opened fire and targeted YPG security checkpoints,” the source said. A YPG fighter told ARA News that their forces had reached a truce with Nusra militants in the northwestern countryside of Aleppo. “However, some of Nusra’s militants are apparently trying to resume the fighting with our forces.” “We (YPG) won’t stay still towards any such violations against civilians in Afrin,” he said. adding that Thursday’s clashes didn’t result in any casualties and that Nusra militants retreated to their bases in Aleppo countryside.  Nusra Front is Syria’s branch of al-Qaeda.

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Jul 26, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has vowed to win his country's long-running civil war while acknowledging his troops are struggling to maintain control over territory amid lack of manpower. In a televised speech on Sunday before local dignitaries in Damascus, the embattled president tried to justify why the Syrian army has given up some areas of Syria, including the northwestern city of Idlib. He said it was due to military priorities. "It was necessary to specify critical areas for our armed forces to hang on to. Concern for our soldiers forces us to let go of some areas," he said. "Every inch of Syria is precious," he added. Syria's army once had around 300,000 members, but it has been significantly reduced in size by deaths, defections, and a rise in draft dodging."There is a lack of human resources" in the army, Assad said. "But that doesn't mean we can talk about collapse," he added. "We will resist... The armed forces are capable of defending the motherland."Army setbacks The Syrian army has faced a series of battlefield setbacks since March: It lost most of the northwestern province of Idlib to a rebel alliance including the Syrian al-Qaeda branch, the Nusra Front, and important areas of the southern border region to mainstream groups of the "Southern Front". The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant group also seized the central city of Palmyra from the Syrian military in May. In the speech, Assad also said he supported any political dialogue to end his country's conflict, even if its effects are limited. But he added that any initiative that is not based on fighting "terrorism" will be "hollow" and "meaningless". He said groups fighting to topple him had received increased backing from their state sponsors, in a reference to countries including Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

Jul 12, 2015 Syrian Army Changes Strategy on Palmyra, Gets Closer to City

TEHRAN (FNA)- The Syrian army adopted new tactics for seizing back Palmyra (Tadmor) in Homs province, and took control of new areas in the city. The army units backed by popular defense forces regained control of Hayal mountain and Abu al-Favares mines inching closer to Palmyra. On Saturday, the ISIL started massive troops pullout from Palmyra following a series of gains by the Syrian army in the region. Hundreds of ISIL terrorists have started retreating from Palmyra towards the Reqqa province as the army regained control of the surrounding areas of the city and Syrian forces are now only one kilometer away from the city, informed sources said. Early Saturday morning sources informed that the Syrian army was about a mile away from the city. "The Syrian troops are only 1,500 meters away from Palmyra and the city is within the reach of the army," a Syrian military source told FNA early Saturday morning. The source noted that the Syrian forces have taken control of al-Siyaqeh school in the suburbs of Palmyra after killing tens of ISIL terrorists and destroying a many of their military equipment. The ISIL captured the historic Syrian town of Palmyra in May from government forces. Many fear that the group damage the town's archaeological sites as they did in neighboring Iraq earlier this year. Palmyra's UNESCO world heritage site is famous for its 2,000-year-old Roman colonnades, other ruins and priceless artifacts. Before Syria's conflict began in 2011, tens of thousands of tourists visited the remote desert outpost, a cherished landmark referred to by Syrians as the "Bride of the Desert." In March, the ISIL fighters in

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Iraq razed 3,000-year old Nimrod and bulldozed 2,000-year old Hatra — both UNESCO world heritage sites. The ISIL militants also recently destroyed a lion statue dating back to the 2nd century in Palmyra, said Maamoun Abdulkarim, the head of the Syrian government's Antiquities and Museums Department. He said the statue, discovered in 1977, had stood at the gate of the town's museum, and had been placed inside a metal box to protect it from damage.

Turkey says parts of Syria to become 'safe zones'Foreign minister says areas cleared of fighters belonging to ISIL can become haven for Syrians displaced by war. 25 Jul 2015 Turkey has said areas in north Syria cleared of fighters belonging to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) group will become safe zones.Saturday’s announcement made by Mevlut Cavusoglu, the Turkish foreign minister, came after Ankara announced it had begun bombing ISIL positions in Syria and and Kurdish fighters' camps in northern Iraq."When areas in northern Syria are cleared of the (ISIL) threat, the safe zones will be formed naturally," Cavusoglu told a news conference. "We have always defended safe zones and no-fly zones in Syria. People who have been displaced can be placed in those safe zones." The conflict in Syria has displaced more than 10 million people, with many residing in makeshift camps near the Turkish border.These areas have been targeted a number of times by Syrian military bombardment. The Turkish government has repeatedly called for the setting-up of safe zones to protect these people. Several Turkish media outlets had earlier reported the government was considering setting up a 33km-wide safe zone inside Syria, stretching from the outskirts of Kurdish-held Kobane to areas controlled by pro-Western rebel groups. Turkish forces on Saturday unleashed a third wave of air strikes and ground attacks against ISIL and Kurdish Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) locations in northern Iraq and Syria. The attacks on the outlawed PKK, which has waged a three-decade fight against Turkey, could kill off stumbling peace talks between the group and Ankara, which were started in 2012 but have been stalled lately."The truce has no meaning anymore after these intense air strikes by the occupant Turkish army," the PKK said in a statement on its website.

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How the Dominoes Will Fall After ISIS Takes DamascusBy Riyadh MohammedJuly 13, 2015 For more than four years, the Assad regime in Syria has resisted its people's cry to be freed from dictatorship.  During the last several weeks, the Assad regime has shown signs of vulnerability punctuated by a weakened relationship with Iran. Iranian advisers who had supported Assad for years are now consumed with supporting the Iraqi government in its war against ISIS and the Houthis in Yemen in their war against a Saudi-led coalition of Arab nations. Iran's economy has been damaged severely after a decade of international sanctions and Iran cannot support the Syrian regime financially forever.  Hezbollah, the best trained force fighting for the regime, has lost about a thousand of its best fighters in Syria, the very fighters desperately needed to fight ISIS and al-Qaeda in Lebanon. For these reasons, Syrian government forces have suffered a series of defeats over the last weeks. The Assad regime now controls no more than 35 percent of the country, leaving the rest to ISIS, the Kurds and the other rebel groups like al-Nusra front. Allepo, Syria's largest city is almost surrounded completely by the rebels. The Syrian Kurds have increased the

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territories they control in the north to include most of the border areas with Turkey. Assad is also the de facto mayor of Damascus and the coastal areas. If this trend continues, which is likely to happen, the Syrian regime will probably fall by the end of this year. The two competing forces to occupy Damascus are ISIS and al-Nusra front. If either of these two terrorist organizations capture Damascus, the world will witness an unprecedented chain reaction. It would be the first time that al-Qaeda or ISIS controlled a national capital. “ISIS's strategic target is to control one of the historical capitals of the Islamic caliphates: Damascus, Baghdad or Samarra. These cities are very symbolic for its followers,” says Hisham al-Hashimi, an expert on ISIS and the author of the book, The World of ISIS. A possible scenario for the aftermath of the fall of Damascus is the infighting between these two terror groups. If that happens or a new civil war breaks out, the region and the world would be spared an imminent and great danger. But if that infighting doesn’t take place, the world needs to prepare for continued genocides and years of terrorist acts across the continents. The Assads, who have ruled Syria since 1970, are Alawaites — a version of Shiite Islam and a faith that serves 12 percent of the Syrian people. With Russia's diplomatic aid and arms, Iran's economic and military advice, Lebanese Hezbollah and other Shiite Iraqi and Afghan fighters and the use of chemical weapons against its own people, the Assad regime has prevailed. Until now. After the fall of the Assad regime, the Syrian people's different ethnic and sectarian components would cause the society to fray further. “Imagine that you wake up one day to find out that the ruling party in Damascus is no longer the Arab Baath Socialist Party; it is al-Nusra front.... Imagine you wake up to hear that another caliph has appeared somewhere else.... I say to those who complain about what is going on in our region: you haven't seen anything yet. Civil wars don't end suddenly, unless there is a victory that left many massacred,” says Harith Hasan, a fellow at the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Studies at Harvard University who is researching ethnic violence and identity in the Middle East. 

While Syria's Sunnis were the driving force of the Syrian rebels, the other 40 percent of the

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Syrian people supported the regime. They include Alawite, Christians, Druze, Kurds and others. There is no doubt that the Alawites will suffer the revenge of those whom they suppressed for a half century. “There is a very large revenge between the Sunnis and the Alawite after what the Alawite have done to the Sunnis, which includes killing, torture, displacement and raping of women....We think that Alawite is a sect that has left the religion of Allah and Islam,” said Abu Mohammed al-Julani, the leader of al-Nusra front in a rare TV interview. He added that Christians are supporting the regime. Julani's remarks were supported by the massacre of at least 30 Druze by his fighters in Idlib last month. In Qalb Lawza, one of the Druze villages in Idlib, the al-Nusra Front earlier this year forced inhabitants to renounce their faith and accept Sunni Islam. Al-Nusra destroyed Druze shrines and made residents abide by their regulations, such as gender segregation. “These impositions have not been cancelled and remain in force to this day,” says Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, a Shillman-Ginsburg Fellow at the Middle East Forum. The very likely persecution of Syria's minorities under an extreme Sunni Islamic rule enforced by ISIS or al-Nusra front will result in millions of refugees and thousands of people killed, tortured and enslaved. With more than 60 million refugees already displaced by wars, millions more could cause the world relief system to collapse. 

How the Dominoes May FallIsrael: The fate of the Druze has been a main source of debate in Israel. Should Israel depart from its neutral stand regarding the Syrian civil war? Many Druze serving in the Israeli army are pushing for Israeli intervention in Syria to protect the Druze there. But Israel would have to deal for the first time in its history with a neighboring country in an official state of war to confront either al-Qaeda or ISIS or both. If those two groups do not fight each other, it is likely they would fight Israel to take back the Golan Heights that Israel occupied in the 1967 war with the Arabs. Lebanon: The country most affected by the fall of the Assad regime would be Lebanon. Hezbollah, the militant Shiite group supported by Iran, has controlled the country since the

withdrawal of the Syrian army in 2005. Lebanon's Sunnis, Christians and Druze have resisted Hezbollah domination ever since. But none of these groups was ever a serious challenger to the well-trained and armed Shiite group. Should the regime in Syria be toppled by ISIS and al-Nusra, Lebanon may face civil war similar to the conflicts in1975 and 1989. “The removal of the Assad regime 

means the automatic removal of Hezbollah.... Hezbollah realizes that its battle with us [the Syrian rebels] is lost. But it is obligated to fight in this battle to the end to extend the reign of the regime that is supporting it,” added al-Julani. Iraq: The other country that will suffer the consequences of the fall of the Assad regime is Iraq. With a Sunni-ruled Syria, ISIS and the other Sunni militant groups in Iraq will be encouraged and supported by Syria, which would prolong the civil war in Iraq. Turkey and Jordan: Turkey will be tempted to interfere in Syria as well. The fall of the Assad regime would make the partial autonomy that the Syrian Kurds now enjoy more feasible. The Turkish leadership has never been happy with the gains of the Iraqi and the Syrian Kurds because it feared that these gains would make its own Kurds bolder in their demands for self-rule. Because of this, Turkey has viewed ISIS as the lesser of two evils. It has considered establishing a security zone on the border with Syria to support the Syrian rebels and to curb Kurdish ambitions of independence. Until now, Turkey's blind eye toward al-Qaeda and ISIS has kept the terror groups from

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mobilizing the grassroots in Turkey. Yet, a change in official policy would likely mean that the groups would target Turkey as a new recruiting field. The same would likely apply in Jordan.  Global Terrorism: The most alarming reaction to the fall of Damascus to ISIS would be a shockwave of multiple terrorist plots all over the world. Last month, we passed the one-year anniversary of the capture of Mosul, Iraq's second largest city. In that time, ISIS has dominated its mother organization, al-Qaeda, and secured the allegiance of more than 60 worldwide terror organizations. This organizational change has transformed the local Syrian militia into a terrorist network with a record of attacks in Texas, Paris, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameron, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Kuwait and Afghanistan. ISIS is engaged in ground wars with the governments of Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Libya, Nigeria, Cameron, Niger and Chad and is subjected to air raids by a U.S.-led coalition that includes 60 nations. Despite this, ISIS achieved another strategic victory when it captured the city of Ramadi, the capital of Iraq's largest province last May.  This record of attacks and plots will become a minor issue if and when ISIS captures Damascus. ISIS operatives and plots will multiply. If ISIS counts tens of thousands of members now, it soon would reach hundreds of thousands. Instead of uploading one propaganda video daily and tweets that reach tens of thousands of Twitter followers, it could increase its reach tenfold.  The Myth That’s Compelling ISISLike several other religions, many Muslims believe in an end of time scenario that involves the emergence of a redeemer called al-Mahdi who will rule the world for seven to 19 years and fill it with justice after it was filled with injustice. Al-Mahdi — Arabic for “the guided one” — was never mentioned in the Quran, but some claim that the prophet Mohammed prophesied about him. While many Sunnis — who make up to 85 percent of Muslims — believe that al-Mahdi hasn't been born yet, most Shiites believe that al-Mahdi is the 12th Imam and the descendent of the prophet Mohammed who disappeared in Iraq in 874 A.D. It is believed that his emergence, or re-emergence, will be the final chapter before the end of time and judgment day. With some oversimplification, the story suggests that al-Mahdi will lead the camp of the righteous against the camp of evil. Jesus — whose soul Muslims believe was saved by God before the crucifixion — will descend from the sky to Damascus and

declare his allegiance to al-Mahdi. 

Against the army led by al-Mahdi and Jesus, the camp of evil will have two leaders. A tyrant appears in Damascus called al-Sufyani and an equivalent of the Christian Antichrist called “the one-eyed deceiver” appears in the border area between Afghanistan, Iran and Turkmenistan. Al-Mahdi will appear in Mecca, Saudi Arabia. A war will start that involves the capture of Istanbul and a final battle in a place called Dabiq in northern Syria. ISIS and al-Qaeda believe fully in this final

battle. ISIS has chosen the name Dabiq for its online magazine. Al-Mahdi soldiers will be tall, with long black hair and beards, dressed in black and carry the prophet’s black banner, the rationale for ISIS's and al-Qaeda’s choice of these figures in their propaganda videos. “After the battle of Damascus, I expect that the rhetoric of the caliphate state addressed to the Sunnis of the world will shift from the sectarian provocation to the al-Mahdism narrative...this shift will capture a large part of the attention and the imagination of a Middle East that is so

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By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

easy to persuade with conspiracy theories and fantasies.... Both the Sunni and Shiite common audiences are prepared to receive these Mahdisim calls...accordingly, we will witness a surge of madness that may last for a period of time and may inflame a great war. These are desperate nations awaiting the magical salvation. They sit on excessive arms and munition and they stand on important international power and transportation lines. Someone will come and tell them -- hurry up and make a stand. The end of time has approached,” says Nibras al-Kadhimi, the fellow at Hudson Institute who is researching the Mahdi phenomenon.  A friend of al-Kadhimi’s on Facebook asked him, “anywhere to escape this madness?” Al-Kadhimi replied, “The south pole. It doesn’t show on the ISIS's world map of its five Dinar currency. See you there!” 

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