Airthread Connections Nida

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AIRTHREAD ACQUISITION Operat Revenue Projections: 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Service Revenue 4,194.3 4,781.5 5,379.2 5,917.2 6,331.4 Service Revenue Growth 14.0% 14.0% 12.5% 10.0% 7.0% Equipment Revenue 314.8 358.8 403.7 444.1 475.2 Equipment Revenue/Service Revenue (1) 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% Operating Expenses: System Operating Expenses 838.9 956.3 1,075.8 1,183.4 1,266.3 System Operating Exp./Service Revenue 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% Cost of Equipment Sold 755.5 861.2 968.9 1,065.8 1,140.4 Equipment COGS 240.0% 240.0% 240.0% 240.0% 240.0% Selling, General & Administrative 1,803.6 2,056.2 2,313.2 2,544.5 2,722.6 SG&A/Total Revenue 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% Depreciation & Amortization 705.2 804.0 867.4 922.4 952.9 Tax Rate 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% Working Capital Assumptions (1): Accounts Receivable 41.67x 41.67x 41.67x 41.67x 41.67x Days Sales Equip. Rev. 154.36x 154.36x 154.36x 154.36x 154.36x Prepaid Expenses 1.38% 1.38% 1.38% 1.38% 1.38% Accounts Payable 35.54x 35.54x 35.54x 35.54x 35.54x Deferred Serv. Revenue 14.01x 14.01x 14.01x 14.01x 14.01x Accrued Liabilities 6.85x 6.85x 6.85x 6.85x 6.85x Capital Expenditures (2): Capital Expenditures 631.3 719.7 867.4 970.1 1,055.0 Cap-x/Total Revenue 14.0% 14.0% 15.0% 15.3% 15.5% (1) Based on a 360-day year. Days Payable, Deferred Service Revenue, and Days Accrued Liabilities are based on total cash operating expenses. (2) Includes investments in property, plant & equipment, as well as licenses and customer lists. Har

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Transcript of Airthread Connections Nida

Exhibit 1AIRTHREAD ACQUISITION0Operating AssumptionsProject:AIRTHREAD ACQUISITIONAnalysis:Operating AssumptionsDraft:nFooter:Harvard Business PublishingSize Factor100.0%Harvard Business PublishingAIRTHREAD ACQUISITION0Operating AssumptionsRevenue Projections:20082009201020112012Service Revenue4,194.34,781.55,379.25,917.26,331.4Service Revenue Growth14.0%14.0%12.5%10.0%7.0%Equipment Revenue314.8358.8403.7444.1475.2Equipment Revenue/Service Revenue (1)7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%Operating Expenses:System Operating Expenses838.9956.31,075.81,183.41,266.3System Operating Exp./Service Revenue20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%Cost of Equipment Sold755.5861.2968.91,065.81,140.4Equipment COGS240.0%240.0%240.0%240.0%240.0%Selling, General & Administrative1,803.62,056.22,313.22,544.52,722.6SG&A/Total Revenue40.0%40.0%40.0%40.0%40.0%Depreciation & Amortization705.2804.0867.4922.4952.9Tax Rate40.0%40.0%40.0%40.0%40.0%Working Capital Assumptions (1):Accounts Receivable41.67x41.67x41.67x41.67x41.67xDays Sales Equip. Rev.154.36x154.36x154.36x154.36x154.36xPrepaid Expenses1.38%1.38%1.38%1.38%1.38%Accounts Payable35.54x35.54x35.54x35.54x35.54xDeferred Serv. Revenue14.01x14.01x14.01x14.01x14.01xAccrued Liabilities6.85x6.85x6.85x6.85x6.85xCapital Expenditures (2):Capital Expenditures631.3719.7867.4970.11,055.0Cap-x/Total Revenue14.0%14.0%15.0%15.3%15.5%(1) Based on a 360-day year. Days Payable, Deferred Service Revenue, and Days Accrued Liabilities arebased on total cash operating expenses.(2) Includes investments in property, plant & equipment, as well as licenses and customer lists.Harvard Business Publishing

Exhibit 2AIRTHREAD ACQUISITION0Licensing AgreemtsProject:AIRTHREAD ACQUISITIONAnalysis:Licensing AgreemtsDraft:nFooter:Harvard Business PublishingSize Factor100.0%Harvard Business PublishingAIRTHREAD ACQUISITION0Licensing AgreemtsTotal Consolidated Markets:RegionPopulationCustomersPenetrationCentral US65,0963,8465.9%Mid-Atlantic11,6771,18010.1%New England2,83051818.3%Northwest2,28743118.8%New York48114730.6%Total82,3716,1227.4%Total Operating Markets:RegionPopulationCustomersPenetrationCentral US32,4973,84611.8%Mid-Atlantic7,3461,18016.1%New England2,34451822.1%Northwest2,28743118.8%New York48114730.6%Total44,9556,12213.6%Harvard Business Publishing

Exhibit 3AIRTHREAD ACQUISITION0Customer Operating DataProject:AIRTHREAD ACQUISITIONAnalysis:Customer Operating DataDraft:nFooter:Harvard Business PublishingSize Factor100.0%Harvard Business PublishingAIRTHREAD ACQUISITION0Customer Operating DataCustomer Data:200520062007Net Customer Additions301310477Cost Per Customer Addition372385487Cost of New Customer Additions111,972119,350232,299Cost of Equipment Sold/Equipment Revenue251.3%219.9%239.8%Monthly Churn Rate2.1%2.1%1.7%Revenue Per Minute200520062007Monthly ARPU45.2447.2351.13Customer Minutes Per Month625704859Revenue Per Minute0.07240.06710.0595Harvard Business Publishing

Exhibit 4AIRTHREAD ACQUISITION0Income StatementProject:AIRTHREAD ACQUISITIONAnalysis:Income StatementDraft:nFooter:Harvard Business PublishingSize Factor100.0%Harvard Business PublishingAIRTHREAD ACQUISITION0Income StatementHistorical Operating ResultsOperating Results:200520062007Service Revenue2,827.03,214.43,679.2Plus: Equipment Sales203.7258.7267.0Total Revenue3,030.83,473.23,946.3Less: System Operating Expenses604.1639.7717.1Less: Cost of Equipment Sold511.9568.9640.2Less: Selling, General & Administrative1,217.71,399.61,555.6EBITDA697.0865.01,033.3Less: Depreciation & Amortization490.1555.5582.3EBIT206.9309.5451.1Less: Interest Expense84.993.784.7Plus: Equity in Earnings of Affiliates66.793.190.0Plus: Gains (Losses) on Investments18.150.883.1Plus: Other Income54.5(46.6)7.0EBT261.3313.1546.5Less: Taxes95.9120.6216.7Income Before Minority Interest165.5192.5329.8Less: Minority Interest10.513.015.1Net Income155.0179.5314.7Harvard Business Publishing

Exhibit 5AIRTHREAD ACQUISITION0Balance SheetProject:AIRTHREAD ACQUISITIONAnalysis:Balance SheetDraft:nFooter:Harvard Business PublishingSize Factor100.0%Harvard Business PublishingAIRTHREAD ACQUISITION0Balance SheetAssets:200520062007Cash & Cash Equivalents29.032.9204.5Marketable Securities0.0249.016.4Accounts Receivable362.4407.4435.5Inventory92.7117.2101.0Prepaid Expenses32.135.041.6Deferred Taxes8.20.018.6Other Current Assets15.513.416.2Total Current Assets539.9854.9833.8Property, Plan & Equipment2,553.02,628.82,595.1Licenses1,362.31,494.31,482.4Customer Lists47.626.215.4Marketable Equity Securities225.44.90.0Investments in Affiliated Entities172.1150.3157.7Long Term Note Receivable4.74.54.4Goodwill481.2485.5491.3Other Long Term Assets30.031.131.8Total Assets5,416.25,680.65,611.9Liabilities & Owners' Equity:Accounts Payable254.1254.9260.8Deferred Revenue & Deposits111.4123.3143.4Accrued Liabilities42.947.859.2Taxes Payable36.726.943.1Deferred Taxes0.026.30.0Note Payable135.035.00.0Forward Contract0.0159.90.0Derivative Liability0.088.80.0Other Current Liabilities82.693.797.7Total Current Liabilities662.7856.7604.2Long Term Debt1,001.41,001.81,002.3Forward Contracts159.90.00.0Derivative Liability25.80.00.0Deferred Tax Liability647.1601.5554.4Asset Retirement Obligation90.2127.6126.8Other Deferred Liabilities46.262.984.5Minority Interest41.936.743.4Common Stock & Paid-In Capital1,375.01,378.91,404.1Retained Earnings1,366.01,614.41,792.1Total Liabilities & Owners' Equity5,416.25,680.65,611.9Harvard Business Publishing

Exhibit 6AIRTHREAD ACQUISITION0Amortization ScheduleProject:AIRTHREAD ACQUISITIONAnalysis:Amortization ScheduleDraft:nFooter:Harvard Business PublishingSize Factor100.0%Harvard Business PublishingAIRTHREAD ACQUISITION0Amortization ScheduleTerm Loan AmortizationAnnualAmortizationAnnualAmortizationPaymentInterestPrincipalBalancePeriodPaymentInterestPrincipalBalancePeriodDate:415.50%3,758120Date:415.50%2,698841/31/084117243,73416/30/114112282,669422/28/084117243,71027/31/114112292,641433/31/084117243,68738/31/114112292,612444/30/084117243,66349/30/114112292,583455/31/084117243,639510/31/114112292,554466/30/084117243,615611/30/114112292,525477/31/084117243,590712/31/114112292,496488/31/084116243,56681/31/124111292,467499/30/084116243,54292/28/124111292,4375010/31/084116253,517103/31/124111302,4085111/30/084116253,492114/30/124111302,3785212/31/084116253,468125/31/124111302,348531/31/094116253,443136/30/124111302,318542/28/094116253,418147/31/124111302,288553/31/094116253,393158/31/124110302,257564/30/094116253,367169/30/124110302,227575/31/094115253,3421710/31/124110312,196586/30/094115253,3171811/30/124110312,166597/31/094115263,2911912/31/122,176102,1660608/31/094115263,265209/30/094115263,2392110/31/094115263,2142211/30/094115263,1882312/31/094115263,161241/31/104114263,135252/28/104114263,109263/31/104114273,082274/30/104114273,055285/31/104114273,029296/30/104114273,002307/31/104114272,975318/31/104114272,948329/30/104114272,9203310/31/104113272,8933411/30/104113282,8653512/31/104113282,838361/31/114113282,810372/28/114113282,782383/31/114113282,754394/30/114113282,726405/31/114112282,69841Harvard Business PublishingHarvard Business Publishing

Exhibit 7AIRTHREAD ACQUISITION0Wireless ComparablesProject:AIRTHREAD ACQUISITIONAnalysis:Wireless ComparablesDraft:nFooter:Harvard Business PublishingSize Factor100.0%Harvard Business PublishingAIRTHREAD ACQUISITION0Wireless ComparablesTax rate40%EquityNetDebt/Debt/EquityNetComparable Companies:Market ValueDebtValueEquityBeta1RevenueEBITEBITDAIncomeUnlevered betaUniversal Mobile118,49769,13036.8%58.3%0.8643,88211,79516,9493,7940.64Neuberger Wireless189,47079,35129.5%41.9%0.8942,6847,02014,0994,1030.71Agile Connections21,0795,08019.4%24.1%1.1734,6981,6319,914(30)1.02Big Country Communications26,2858,33524.1%31.7%0.9738,8966,70212,6143,3840.81Rocky Mountain Wireless7,3603,26830.7%44.4%1.134,0645101,0282400.89Average28.1%40.1%1.000.811) Equity betas were estimated on a weekly based on weekly stock returns over a three year period.Note: The current industry and competitor leverage ratios reflect the historical averages that existed over the past three years.Harvard Business Publishing

Cash Flows2008200920102011201212345Service Revenue4194.330184781.53640525379.228455855917.1513014356331.3518925354Equipment Revenue314.7731502387358.8413912722403.6965651812444.0662216993475.1508572182Tax Rate40.0%Total Revenue4509.10333023875140.37779647225782.92502103126361.21752313436806.5027497537200720082009201020112012Operating Expenses:Working Capital Assumptions (1):System Operating Expenses838.866036956.307281041075.845691171183.4302602871266.2703785071Accounts Receivable436521.90x594.96x669.33x736.26x787.80xCost of Equipment Sold755.455560573861.2193390532968.87175643481065.75893207831140.3620573238Days Sales Equip. Rev.101134.97x153.86x173.10x190.41x203.73xSelling, General & Administrative1,803.62,056.22,313.22,544.52,722.6Prepaid Expenses42.0046.9153.4860.1766.1970.82Total cash expenses3,398.03,873.74,357.94,793.75,129.2Accounts Payable261335.42382.38430.18473.20506.32Depreciation & Amortization705.2804.0867.4922.4952.9Deferred Serv. Revenue143163.2542473617186.1098419924209.3735722414230.3109294655246.4326945281Accrued Liabilities5964.61x73.65x82.86x91.15x97.53xEBIT405.9462.7557.6645.2724.4NWC115.10140.49160.16180.18198.20212.07Tax162.3644327286185.0954533106223.0395247437258.0659122643289.7435316223PAT243.5466490929277.6431799658334.5592871155387.0988683965434.6152974335Capital Expenditures631.2744662334719.6528915061867.4387531547970.0856722781055.0079262118Change in NWC25.3919.6720.0218.0213.87FCFF292.11342.28314.54321.37318.64

Balance sheetBalance Sheet20052006200720082009201020112012Tax rate40%FCFF292.11342.28314.54321.37318.64ob cash204.53387.0613.22(95.27)(204.23)Principal2903063243422,496Interest199183166148128Interest tax shield79.77158334673.230032626866.31948702859.019132337951.3069802596Net cash balance87.0613.22(95.27)(204.23)(2,458.54)Assets:Cash & Cash Equivalents29.00332.912204.53387.0613.220.00.00.0Marketable Securities0249.03916.35216.3516.3516.3516.3516.35Accounts Receivable362.359407.438435.497521.90594.96669.33736.26787.80Inventory92.748117.189100.99134.97153.86173.10190.41203.73Prepaid Expenses32.06834.95541.58846.9153.4860.1766.1970.82Deferred Taxes8.218018.56618.5718.5718.5718.5718.57Other Current Assets15.48913.38516.22716.2316.2316.2316.2316.23Total Current Assets539.885854.918833.753841.98866.68953.741,044.001,113.50Property, Plan & Equipment2553.0292628.8482595.0962521.142436.832436.832484.542586.64Licenses1362.2631494.3271482.4461482.4461482.4461482.4461482.4461482.446Customer Lists47.64926.19615.37515.37515.37515.37515.37515.375Marketable Equity Securities225.3874.873000000Investments in Affiliated Entities172.093150.325157.693157.693157.693157.693157.693157.693Long Term Note Receivable4.7074.5414.4224.4224.4224.4224.4224.422Goodwill481.235485.452491.316491.316491.316491.316491.316491.316Other Long Term Assets29.98531.13631.77331.77331.77331.77331.77331.773Total Assets5416.2335680.6165611.8745546.155486.535573.605711.575883.16Liabilities & Owners' Equity:Accounts Payable254.116254.871260.791335.42382.38430.18473.20506.32Deferred Revenue & Deposits111.407123.344143.445163.25186.11209.37230.31246.43Accrued Liabilities42.86547.84259.22464.6173.6582.8691.1597.53Taxes Payable36.74826.91343.10543.1050000Deferred Taxes026.326000000Note Payable13535000000Forward Contract0159.856000000Derivative Liability088.84000000Other Current Liabilities82.58593.71897.67897.6780000Total Current Liabilities662.721856.71604.243704.07642.14722.41794.65850.28Long Term Debt1001.3851001.8391002.2933,4683,1612,9332,7002,458.54Forward Contracts159.8560000000Derivative Liability25.8180000000Deferred Tax Liability647.086601.535554.412554.412554.412554.412554.412554.412Asset Retirement Obligation90.224127.639126.844126.844126.844126.844126.844126.844Other Deferred Liabilities46.23462.91484.5384.5384.5384.5384.5384.53Minority Interest41.87136.743.39643.4043.4043.4043.4043.40Total Liabilities2675.1952687.3372415.7184980.87311243214612.67413196474464.6587267784304.05720035484117.99973883Common Stock & Paid-In Capital1375.0161378.8811404.094565.28873.861108.941407.511765.16Retained Earnings1366.0221614.3981792.062Total Liabilities & Owners' Equity5416.2335680.6165611.8745546.155486.535573.605711.575883.16Debt+Equity4,032.904,035.214,042.004,107.734,223.70Growth Rate2.75%

ValuationTax rate40%P/E ratio19.1Growth rate2.75%Using average values of 201220082009201020112012Equity market risk premium5%12345Risk free rate4.25%FCFF292.1082373897342.2826558429314.5389968219321.3714757087318.6436950137Unlevered beta0.81PV(FCFF)269.729572776291.8464492352247.644552069233.6395539421213.9090363701Cost of equity(unlevered)8.30%TV6756.7322815413PV(TV)4535.8691038691D/E ratio40.09%Base Case value of the firm5792.6382682616Cost of debt5.50%Levered beta1.004Interest tax shield79.77158334673.230032626866.31948702859.019132337951.3069802596Cost of equiy (levered)9.27%PV (tax shield)75.612875209565.793699716456.478581354747.641231798339.2567331885WACC7.59%PV (tax shield)284.7831212673PV(Firm)6077.4213895289Value of Inoperative assets1940.5153TOTAL VALUE8017.9366895289In Case of Synergies20082009201020112012Using values of Rocky Mountain Wireless 201212345Equity market risk premium5%FCFF292.1082373897342.2826558429314.5389968219321.3714757087318.6436950137Risk free rate4.25%PV(FCFF)268.7004869758289.6237629572244.8208747946230.0943340245209.8594722433Unlevered beta0.89TV6388.2722295819Cost of equity(unlevered)8.71%PV(TV)4207.3308200517Base Case value of the firm5450.4297510472D/E ratio44.40%Cost of debt5.50%Interest tax shield79.77158334673.230032626866.31948702859.019132337951.3069802596Levered beta1.130PV (tax shield)75.612875209565.793699716456.478581354747.641231798339.2567331885Cost of equiy (levered)9.90%PV (tax shield)284.7831212673WACC7.87%PV(Firm)5735.2128723145Value of Inoperative assets1940.5153TOTAL VALUE7675.7281723145Q1In the initial years, neither the debt to equity ratio nor the debt is constant and WACC cannot be used. Hence it is advisable to use the APV method upto 2012.However, after 2012 the D/E ratio becomes constant and hence WACC method can be used to calculate the termainal value of the firm in 2012.The free cash flows and terminal value can then be discounted at the unlevered cost of equity 8.30% to obtain the base case value of the firm.Present values of interest tax shields which are discounted at cost of debt are then added to the base value along with the value of Inoperative assets to obtain the total value.Q2The unlevered cost of equity of 8.30% should be used to discount the unlevered FCF as neither the nor the D/E ratio are constant in the initial years .However in the long run, the D/E ratio will become constant and hence WACC method taking into account the growth rate is used to calculate the terminal value.Q3The long term growth rate comes out to be 2.75%. Using this rate, the terminal value of the firm is $6756.73 million and the present value of the going concern is $4535.87 millionQ4The Total value of AirThread before considering any synergies is $8017.94 million.The synergies can be achieved due to:a) Increase in revenue due to increased service offeringsb) Reduced operating expensesAssuming Zhang's estimates of synergies are accurate, the total value of AirThread is $7675.73 million