AIM Model Presentation
description
Transcript of AIM Model Presentation
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002
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AIM Model Presentation
1. Brief introduction of the AIM
2. Projection of Global Warming
3. Mitigation of Global Warming
Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi
Yuzuru MatsuokaKyoto University, Japan
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002
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PolicymakingProcess
AIM (Asian team)
IMAGE(Netherlands )GCAM
( USA )
Integrated Assessment Model
ecology
policy sciences
hydraulics
meteorology
geochemistrypaleo-
climatology
geophysicsAtmosphericChemistry economics
pedology
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002
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The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model
• AIM is an abbreviation of Asia-Pacific Integrated Model.
• It is one of Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), and a large-scale computer simulation model developed to promote the integrated assessment process in the Asia-Pacific region
• Collaborated study by Japan, China, India , Korea, Thailand and Malaysia members.
• The AIM project is started in July 1990, and began an international collaboration system from 1994.
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002
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The AIM Approach
Japan team
India team
China team
Korea team
Thailand team
Malaysia team
Ecosystem
Water resourceSea levelrise
Agriculture
Humanhealth
GHG emissions
Climate change
APEIS
IPCC
UNEP/GEO3
Eco-Asia
EMF19
National
government
privatecompanies
applymodel
develop-ment
Populationmodel
Lifestyle
Land use modelEnergymodel
Technology
Economic model
Atmosphericchemistry
Climatic change
Oceanuptake
Carbon cycle
Mitigationof
Climate Change
Adaptationof
Climate Change
AIM/Emission, AIM/Material
AIM/Climate
AIM/EcosystemA
IM/T
ren
d
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002
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AIM/Emission
CCSR/NIESCGCM
AIM(Asian-PacificIntegratedModel)
AIM/EmissionAIM/Climate
AIM/Ecosystem
Atmos-phere
Land Surface
Ocean
Adaptation
WaterResourceLand-use
CropProductivity
Food DemandAnd Supply
Socio-Econ.Factors
Socio-Econ. &Emission Scenario
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002
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AIM/Emission Coupling of Top-down model and Bottom-up model
Regional Air Pollution
Model
Population Resource Base Lifestyle
Socio-Economic Scenarios
Goods and Service Price
Goods &
Service Demand
Energy Price
Industrial Process Change
Regional / National Bottom-up Model
Technology Change
End Use Energy
Efficiency
Social Energy
Efficiency
Food Consumption
PatternIndustrial
Production
Final Energy
Demand
Final Energy Supply
Energy Conversion Technology Efficiency
Primary Energy Supply
Energy Conversion Technology
Biomass Energy
Demand
Global Energy-Economic Model
Goods & Service Supply
Biomass Farm
Global Land Equilibrium Model
AIM/emission
GHGs Emissions
AIM/climate Model
GDP
GDP
Population
Resource Base GDP
Population
Energy Service Deman
d
Social Energy
Efficiency Change
End Use Technology
Change
End Use Technology
Energy Resource
Exploitation Technology Other
Inputs
Land Input
Cropland
Pasture
Forest
Other Land
SO2, NOx, SPM
Emission
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002
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A1FI (A1C)
A2A1FI (A1G)
A1BB2
A1TB1
CO2 Emission Scenarios
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002
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AIM/Climate
CCSR/NIESCGCM
AIM(Asian-PacificIntegratedModel)
AIM/EmissionAIM/Climate
AIM/Ecosystem
Atmos-phere
Land Surface
Ocean
Adaptation
WaterResourceLand-use
CropProductivity
Food DemandAnd Supply
Socio-Econ.Factors
Socio-Econ. &Emission Scenario
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002
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AIM/Climate
convection and transport of
aerosol, SO2 and NOx
Climate modelRadiative forcing, Energy balance
Upwelling-Diffusion ocean model
AIM/emission
Global temperature changeGlaciersGreenlandAntarctica
Carbon cycle model CH4 model
N2O model CFCs model
Sea level rise
Ice meltThermal
expansion
Balance and Chemical model of GHGs
Natural change
Sea level rise model
Spatial interpolation with GCMGCM,RegCMexperiments
Regional temperature change
Ocean model
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002
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Temperature change between 1990 and 21001~
1.5
1.5
~2
2~
2.5
2.5
~3
3~
3.5
3.5
~4
4~
4.5
4.5
~5
5~
5.5
5.5
~6
B1 2.0±0.5
A1T 2.5±0.6
B2 2.7±0.6
A1B 2.9±0.6
A2 3.8±0.8
A1FI 4.5±0.9
All 3.1±1.1
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0
0.5
1
Fit
ted
pro
ba
bil
ity
an
d f
req
ue
nc
y o
f o
cc
ure
nc
e
1 2 3 4 5 6 Temperature change (C)
Geometric mean= 2.88 CS.D. of logarithm= 0.346
←5%
1.6
3 C
←50
% 2
.88 C
←95
% 5
.1C
Temperature change (C)
Fre
qu
ency
of
occ
urr
ence
s
Simulated 7 GCMs are GFDL R15a, CSIRO Mk2, HadCM3, HadCM2, ECHAM4/OPYC, CSM 1.0 and DOE PCM
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002
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Climate change in Asian-Pacific countries from 1990 to 2100, increase in DJF
< -3
0
-20~
-15-5
~0
10~
1525~
30
Japan 4.6±9.9%
China 7.2±9.4%
India 3.7±19.5%0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
<
1.0
1.0-
1.5
1.5-
2.0
2.0-
2.5
2.5-
3.0
3.0-
3.5
3.5-
4.0
4.0-
4.5
4.5-
5.0
5.0-
5.5
5.5-
6.0
6.0-
6.5
6.5-
7.0
> 7
.0
Global 3.1±1.1℃
Japan 3.7±1.3℃
China 3.9±1.4℃
India 3.1±1.1℃0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
Fre
qu
ency
of
occ
urr
ence
Fre
qu
ency
of
occ
urr
ence
Precipitation change (%)
Temperature change ()
℃
Precipitation change Temperature change
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002
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AIM/Ecosystem
CCSR/NIESCGCM
AIM(Asian-PacificIntegratedModel)
AIM/EmissionAIM/Climate
AIM/Ecosystem
Atmos-phere
Land Surface
Ocean
Adaptation
WaterResourceLand-use
CropProductivity
Food DemandAnd Supply
Socio-Econ.Factors
Socio-Econ. &Emission Scenario
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002
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Wheat productivity change in some countries from 1990 to 2100
-100~
-70
-70~
-60
-60~
-50
-50~
-40
-40~
-30
-30~
-20
-20~
-10
-10~
00~
1010
~20
20~
3030
~40
40~
5050~
Japan 24.3±4.4%
China 33.2±12.5%
India -34.3±16.1%
Canada 90.6±19.8%
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Productivity change (%)
Productivity change (%)
Fre
qu
ency
of
occ
urr
ence
Fre
qu
enc
y o
f
occ
urr
ence
Without CO2 fertilizationWith CO2 fertilization
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002
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Costs and Benefits Atmospheric Stabilization
-70~
-65
-65~
-60
-60~
-55
-55~
-50
-50~
-45
-45~
-40
-40~
-35
-35~
-30
-30~
-25
-25~
-20
-20~
-15
-15~
-10
-10~
-5-5~
00~
55~
10
SRES -34±16%
450ppm -14±5.8%
550ppm -20±6.8%
650ppm -26±7.0%
750ppm -29±7.8%
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
Productivity change (%)
Fre
qu
ency
of
occ
urr
ence
A1F
IA
2A
1B
B2
A1T
750ppm
650ppm
550ppm
450ppm
4.13.6
1.9
0.90.3
2.9 3.3
0.90.6
0.0
2.32.3
0.40.3
0.0
1.21.2
0.00.0
0.0
0.01.02.03.04.0
5.0
Wheat productivity change in India from 1990 to 2100, with CO2 fertilization
GD
P lo
ss (
%)
GDP reduction relative to SRES scenarios
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002
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Some Representative results of AIM calculation
• Global temperature increases in 2100 are 3.1±1.1 , lower ℃and upper 5 percentile temperatures are 1.6 and 5.1 .℃
• Climate change impacts are serious in some sectors and countries.
India, wheat productivity, 34±16% and 53±20% decrease w/wo CO2 fertilization.
• Some impacts are recovered by these mitigations. In the
Indian case, the percentages of recovered are;
• The costs of atmospheric
stabilization are
in GDP% loss
Targetconcentration
450ppm 550ppm 650ppm 750ppm
% recovered 20% 14% 8% 5%
ReferenceScenario
B2 A2
450ppm target 0.9 3.6550ppm target 0.6 3.3650ppm target 0.3 2.3750ppm target 0.0 1.2