Ahmad Ijaz Center for Business and Economic Research Serving Alabama Since 1930 Alabama State Black...

2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

State of the Economy and 2015 Economic Outlook

Ahmad Ijaz

Center for Business and Economic ResearchServing Alabama Since 1930

Alabama State Black Chamber of Commerce

Entrepreneurs and Innovators ConferenceJune 25, 2015

2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2

Overview: U.S. Economic Conditions • U.S. economic growth declined by 0.2 percent in the first quarter,

following a 2.2 percent growth in the fourth quarter, GDP in the second quarter is expected increase by 2.1 percent and around 3.0 percent in the second half.

• Stronger consumer spending, improving housing market and an end to the sharp drop in energy sector capital spending will be major drivers.

• Slowest economic recovery since WWII. Economic growth in the next few quarters will depend on pace of improvement in labor markets and a relatively smooth transfer to a tighter monetary policy. The Fed is expected to start raising interest rate by fourth quarter 2015.

• Median family income has been flat for two years, in 2013 it was 8% below 2007. Weakness in wage gains and falling labor force participation rate will continue to keep consumers cautious about their spending (lowest participation rate since 1978).


Overview: U.S. Economic Conditions (Cont’d) • Despite improving payrolls, there is still considerable slack in the labor

market, a factor hindering wage growth. Much of the job growth in recent years (30-40 percent) has been in low wage sectors of the economy or in part-time/temporary employment.

• Major drag on economic growth will be from net exports because of a strong dollar and weak growth in much of the rest of the world and lack of federal government spending.

• Facing a lack of wage and income growth, consumers are taking on more debt; household nonmortgage debt increased from $3.1 trillion in 2013 to $3.4 trillion in 2014.

• Sluggish job growth and high level of college related student debt is also resulting in low household formation (only about 0.5 million in late 2013 and early 2014).


U.S. Gross Domestic ProductInflation Adjusted Chained 2009 Dollars

(Quarter to Quarter Percent Change)

4

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and IHS Global Insight.


U.S. Nonfarm EmploymentManufacturing, Construction,

Leisure and Hospitality, and Financial Activity

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

ManufacturingConstruction Leisure & HospitalityFinancial Activity

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and IHS Global Insight.


Consumer Sentiment Index

6

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20132014

20152016

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Source: University of Michigan and IHS Global Insight.


Government SpendingInflation Adjusted Chained 2009 Dollars

(Annual Percent Change)

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20132014

20152016

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and IHS Global Insight.

State and Local

Federal


U.S. Economic Outlook(Percent change unless otherwise noted) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Real GDP 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.1 3.1

Consumption 1.8 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.9

Residential Investment 13.5 11.9 1.6 8.3 12.9

Commercial, Healthcare Structures 8.5 3.4 7.7 9.9 13.8

Nonresidential Fixed Investment 7.2 3.0 6.3 3.4 6.6

Federal Government -1.8 -5.7 -1.9 0.5 0.2

State & Local Government -1.2 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.1

Exports 3.3 3.0 3.2 1.6 4.9

Imports 2.3 1.1 4.0 5.5 6.4

Payroll Employment 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.5

Unemployment Rate 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.4 5.1

CPI Inflation 2.1 1.5 1.6 0.0 1.8

Light Vehicle Sales (Millions) 14.43 15.52 16.40 16.99 17.31

4


Shares of nonfarm employment (2013) andAlabama Gross Domestic Product (2013) by industry

1 20%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

17.7713.09

6.9111.81

9.18 11.49

7.4011.652.86

9.4316.80

19.85

39.08

22.69

All Other

Government

Leisure and Hospital-ity

Education and Healthcare Service

Professional and Business Services

Retail Trade

Manufacturing

Share of Alabama GDP Share of Alabama Non-farm Employment

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Monthly Employment Indicators (May 2015)

Not Seasonally Adjusted

Seasonally Adjusted

Civilian Labor Force 2,176,934 2,170,900 Percent Change from Year Ago Level 1.1% 1.5% Absolute Change from Year Ago Level 24,702 31,152

Employed 2,042,837 2,038,731 Percent Change from Year Ago Level 1.6% 2.4% Absolute Change from Year Ago Level 33,022 47,488

Unemployed 134,097 132,169 Percent Change from Year Ago Level -5.8% -11.0% Absolute Change from Year Ago Level -8,320 -16,336

Alabama Unemployment Rate 6.2% 6.1%Alabama Unemployment Rate (May 2014) 6.6% 6.9%U.S. Unemployment Rate 5.3% 5.5%U.S. Unemployment Rate (May 2014) 6.1% 6.3%

Source: Alabama Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Division.


Alabama Jobs Scorecard


January 2011

May 2015 Change

Total Nonagricultural 1,839,400 1,958,100 118,700 Natural Resources and Mining 12,100 10,900 -1,200 Construction 77,200 81,600 4,400 Manufacturing 233,200 252,700 19,500 Durable Goods Manufacturing 143,500 166,700 23,200 Nondurable Goods Manufacturing 89,700 86,000 -3,700 Trade, Transportation and Utilities 358,800 375,800 17,000 Wholesale Trade 70,900 70,800 -100 Retail Trade 221,500 230,400 8,900 Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities 66,400 74,600 8,200 Information 23,500 22,900 -600 Financial Activities 91,100 96,300 5,200 Professional and Business Services 208,200 229,700 21,500 Educational and Health Services 213,200 229,600 16,400 Leisure and Hospitality 159,500 194,200 34,700 Other Services 78,400 81,100 2,700 Government 384,200 383,300 -900 Federal Government 57,200 53,400 -3,800 State Government 110,400 110,900 500 Local Government 216,600 219,000 2,400


Alabama Nonagricultural EmploymentChange in Number of Jobs


May 2013 to May 2014

May 2014 to May 2015

Total Nonagricultural 15,100 30,500 Natural Resources and Mining -500 -800 Construction 0 1,700 Manufacturing 3,600 300 Durable Goods Manufacturing 5,000 2,300 Nondurable Goods Manufacturing -1,400 -2,000 Trade, Transportation and Utilities 4,000 4,600 Wholesale Trade 0 -2,300 Retail Trade 2,800 4,300 Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities 1,200 2,600 Information -700 800 Financial Activities 1,200 1,100 Professional and Business Services 3,100 7,000 Educational and Health Services 500 6,200 Leisure and Hospitality 4,500 6,300 Other Services 600 500 Government -1,200 2,800 Federal Government -1,100 0 State Government -300 2,300 Local Government 200 500


• 4th in U.S. in vehicle exports

• 4 OEMs in the state (Original Equipment Manufacturers)

• 5th in U.S. in vehicles manufactured

• Alabama’s three assembly plants produced 997,270 vehicles in 2014 and the number is expected to climb in the coming years

• $6.5 billion in vehicles shipped to 99 countries in 2013

• Since 2011, Alabama has attracted more than 200 auto-related projects involving $4 billion in investment and 17,000 new jobs

Source: Economic Development Partnership of Alabama (EDPA) and Alabama Department of Commerce.

Manufacturing – Automotive Industry


U.S. Alabama$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000 $4,997

$3,991

$817

$1,731

$631 $517$236 $301

$121 $286

All Merchandise

Transportation Equipment

Chemicals

Primary Metal Manufacturing

Minerals and Ores

Source: International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. Census Bureau.

2013 Exports Per Capita


Bioscience Industry Employment in Alabama, 2012

15

Drugs & pharmaceu-ticals, 10% (1,284)

Ag. feedstock & chemicals, 13%

(1,651)

Med. devices & equip., 13%

(1,662)

Research, testing & med. labs, 30% (3,844)

Bioscience-re-lated distribu-

tion, 34% (4,353)

Note: Number of employees in parenthesis.Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data from Batelle/BIO report.


Alabama Average Annual Wage, 2012

16

All private sector industries

Bioscience industries average

Research, test. & med. labs

Medical devices & equip.

Bioscience-related distr.

Ag. feedstock & chemicals

Drugs & pharmaceuticals

$0 $40,000 $80,000

$41,074

$65,727

$46,939

$55,958

$66,255

$72,338

$73,583

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data from Batelle/BIO report.


Total Annual Nonfarm Employmentand Unemployment Rate

Employment (Thousands), Unemployment Rate (Percent), 1990-2015

Source: Alabama Department of Labor.

Non

farm

Em

ploy

men

t

Une

mpl

oym

ent

Rat

e

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

EmploymentUnemployment Rate


Change in Alabama Employment From the Beginning of the Recession

Number of months

90

92

94

96

98

100

10219801981199020012007

Source: Estimates based on Alabama Department of Labor data.


Labor Force Participation Rate (Annual)

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

55

57

59

61

63

65

67

69

United States

Alabama

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Labor Force Participation Rate(Monthly)

Jan-

76Ja

n-78

Jan-

80Ja

n-82

Jan-

84Ja

n-86

Jan-

88Ja

n-90

Jan-

92Ja

n-94

Jan-

96Ja

n-98

Jan-

00Ja

n-02

Jan-

04Ja

n-06

Jan-

08Ja

n-10

Jan-

12Ja

n-14

55

57

59

61

63

65

67

69United States

Alabama

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Tax Revenues (FY2015, Year-to-Date May 2015)

Percent Change

From Year Ago

Change in Revenue

from Year Ago LevelTax Total Collection

Total $6,706,712,911 4.5% $290,441,062

Income (Individual) $2,729,780,193 5.4% $139,529,597

Sales $1,414,411,305 3.7% $51,048,960

Source: Alabama Department of Revenue.


This Alabama GDP and employment forecast summary is the CBER June 2015 forecast

Preliminary 2016 forecast also included below

Alabama Forecast Summary

Probability: Forecast (60 Percent) and Range (90 percent)

(Percent change) 2013 2014 2015 2016

Real GDP 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.5

range 1.5 to 3.0 2.0 to 3.0

Employment 1.0 0.7 1.4 1.5

range 0.5 to 2.0 0.8 to 1.5

Total Tax Receipts, FY 4.0 1.3 4.0 3.5

range 2.5 to 4.8 1.5 to 4.0


20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

2016-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6Annual Percent Change

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Alabama Department of Labor, and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.

AlabamaGDP

NonfarmEmployment

Alabama GDP and Nonfarm Employment


ABCITM

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q20

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

47.752.9 51.9 51.2

55.6 55.5 54.257.4 57.6

2013 2014 2015

Inde

x


U.S. and Alabama EconomiesExpectations versus Prior Quarter

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q235

40

45

50

55

60

Alabama

UnitedStates

58.4

56.5

2012 2013 2014 2015


Sales and ProfitsExpectations versus Prior Quarter

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q240

45

50

55

60

65

Sales

Profits

61.5

56.8

2012 2013 2014 2015


Hiring and Capital ExpendituresExpectations versus Prior Quarter

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q242

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

2012 2013 2014 2015

Hiring

Capital Expenditures

57.1

55.4


Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

ABCITM History68.7

31.5

57.6


Alabama GDP and employment by metro areas, 2013

Source: Alabama Department of Labor and U.S. Bureau for Economic Analysis.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1.99 2.432.20 3.03

31.12 26.65

2.662.85

2.452.98

2.262.91

1.411.92

11.45 11.22

8.85 9.09

8.14 8.84

5.16 5.07

22.31 23.02Non-Metro Areas

Tuscaloosa

Montgomery

Mobile

Huntsville

Gadsden

Florence-Muscle Shoals

Dothan

Decatur

Birmingham-Hoover

Auburn-Opelika

Anniston-Oxford-Jacksonville

GDP Employment


Unemployment Rate

Source: Alabama Department of Labor.

United States

Alabama

Anniston-Oxford

Auburn-Opelika

Birmingham-Hoover

Daphne-Fairhope-Foley

Decatur

Dothan

Florence-Muscle Shoals

Gadsden

Huntsville

Mobile

Montgomery

Tuscaloosa

6.1

6.6

7.9

5.3

5.8

5.6

6.8

6.6

7.1

7

6

7.5

6.4

6.3

5.3

6.2

7.1

5.1

5.5

5.3

6.2

6.3

7.6

6.1

5.5

7

6

5.9

May-15 May-14


Median Family Income FY2014United States

AlabamaAnniston-OxfordAuburn-Opelika

Birmingham-HooverDaphne-Fairhope-Foley

DecaturDothan

Florence-Muscle ShoalsGadsden

HuntsvilleMobile

MontgomeryTuscaloosa

$63,900$54,100

$51,600$59,700$61,000

$68,800$53,500

$51,700$52,100

$46,900$69,700

$53,900$59,600

$54,400

Note: Chilton and Walker counties are not included in the estimate for the Birmingham- Hoover metro, Henry County is not included in the Dothan, and Pickens County in the Tuscaloosa metro estimate. Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Economic Affairs, Economic and Market Analysis Division.


Educational Attainment 2013United States

AlabamaAnniston-OxfordAuburn-Opelika

Birmingham-HooverDaphne-Fairhope-Foley

DecaturDothan

Florence-Muscle ShoalsGadsden

HuntsvilleMobile

MontgomeryTuscaloosa

86.684.5

80.389.5

87.090.6

80.884.183.4

81.988.8

85.885.786.7

29.6 23.5

15.0 37.9

28.6 29.0

18.9 18.3

17.0 16.2

36.5 22.3

25.9 24.7

Bachelor's degree or higher, Percent High school or higher, Percent

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey 1-year estimates.


Metropolitan Areas, Exports in 2013Total Merchandise

Metro Area ExportsAlabama $19.3 billionAnniston-Oxford $192.7 millionAuburn-Opelika $395.4 millionBirmingham-Hoover $1.9 billionDaphne-Fairhope-Foley $515.3 millionDecatur $673.1 millionDothan $374.7 millionFlorence-Muscle Shoals $229.7 millionGadsden $54.6 millionHuntsville $1.5 billionMobile $1.5 billionMontgomery $1.7 billionTuscaloosa NA

Source: International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce.


Metro Percent of State Exports2013 2012

Alabama 100.0 100.0Anniston-Oxford 1.1 1.2Auburn-Opelika 2.4 2.6Birmingham-Hoover 11.1 11.4Daphne-Fairhope-Foley 3.1 NADecatur 4.0 3.8Dothan 2.2 1.6Florence-Muscle Shoals 1.4 0.8Gadsden 0.3 0.2Huntsville 9.0 8.8Mobile 9.2 11.2Montgomery 9.9 10.4Tuscaloosa NA NA

Source: International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce.


Population gains varied widely since 20107/1/2010 to 7/1/2013

Number Percent7/1/2013 Change Change

Alabama 4,833,722 48,152 1.0Anniston-Oxford 116,736 -1,712 -1.4Auburn-Opelika 150,933 10,083 7.2Birmingham-Hoover 1,140,300 11,204 1.0Daphne-Fairhope-Foley 195,540 12,317 6.7Decatur 153,374 -488 -0.3Dothan 147,691 1,815 1.2Florence-Muscle Shoals 147,317 88 0.1Gadsden 103,931 -567 -0.5Huntsville 435,737 16,306 3.9Mobile 414,079 789 0.2Montgomery 373,510 -1,698 -0.5Tuscaloosa 235,628 5,154 2.2

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.


Three metros past 2007/2008 annual peak in May 2015

* Gadsden, Huntsville and Mobile employment peaked in 2008; all others saw peaks in 2007.Note: Nonfarm employment (jobs) is by place of work.Source: Alabama Department of Labor and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

2007 or 2008 Job Loss (Gain)Nonfarm Employment Peak Year Number PercentAlabama 2,005,700 47,600 2.4%Anniston-Oxford 53,400 7,000 13.1%Auburn-Opelika 54,800 -5,900 -10.8%Birmingham-Hoover 533,400 11,400 2.1%Decatur 58,600 4,600 7.9%Dothan 63,100 6,100 9.7%Florence-Muscle Shoals 57,300 1,700 3.0%Gadsden* 38,000 300 0.8%Huntsville* 214,300 -6,000 -2.8%Mobile* 184,600 5,900 3.2%Montgomery 178,000 6,900 3.9%Tuscaloosa 98,500 -5,600 -5.7%Net Jobs in Metropolitan Areas 26,400Net Jobs in Nonmetro Counties 21,200


ABCI by Metro AreaQ2 2015 compared to Q1 2015

49

Montgomery

Mobile

Huntsville

Birmingham-Hoover

Alabama

52.0 53.0 54.0 55.0 56.0 57.0 58.0 59.0 60.0

59.4

58.2

54.9

58.1

57.4


GDP and Nonfarm Employment Forecasts, 2015Nonfarm Employment Real GDPForecast, Percent Forecast, Percent

Anniston-Oxford 0.3 1.3Auburn-Opelika 2.5 3.7Birmingham-Hoover 1.0 1.5Daphne-Fairhope-Foley 1.2 3.0Decatur 0.4 1.0Dothan 1.4 1.8Florence-Muscle Shoals 1.0 3.5Gadsden 1.1 1.4Huntsville 2.0 3.8Mobile 1.2 3.2Montgomery 0.9 1.4Tuscaloosa 2.2 3.8

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Alabama Department of Labor, and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama, December 2014.


Labor force participation (2012): Alabama 57.3% United States 63.7%

Educational Attainment (Age 25 and over population)

2008-2012 (2012) Alabama United States

High school graduates 82.6% (84.0%) 85.7% (86.4%)

Bachelor’s or higher degree 22.3% (23.3%) 28.5% (29.1%)

Population Growth Alabama United States

1990-2000 10.1% 13.2%

2000-2010 7.5% 9.7%

2010-2013 1.1% 2.4%

Alabama has lower labor force participation, population growth, and

educational attainment than the nation

48


Top issues that Alabama is facing:

1 Education/Training (Quality of education; workforce development)

2 Government (Federal, state & local government; tax reform; prison reform; state constitution)

3/4 Economy/Businesses (Economic & business growth; small businesses)

3/4 Jobs (Job growth; better paying jobs)

5 Healthcare (Healthcare cost; Affordable Healthcare Act; Medicaid, Medicare)

6 Infrastructure (Infrastructure; roads and bridges)

Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, ABCI Panelists’ Poll, Nov. 2014.


Top issues that companies in Alabama are facing:

1 Company Finances & Development

(Profitability; business costs; availability of credit; business growth; competition; concern about customers)

2 Government (Federal, state & local government; taxation; regulations; uncertainty)

3 Workforce (Lack of skilled workers; retaining qualified employees)

4 Economy (Economic recovery & growth; consumer spending)

5 Healthcare (Healthcare cost; Affordable Healthcare Act)

Note: No issues companies are facing was currently mentioned by 1.0% of respondents.Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, ABCI Panelists’ Poll, Nov. 2014.


State Rank of Alabama Per Capita Income1930 441940 45

1950 47

1960 46

1970 47

1980 46

1990 40

2000 43

2009 412010 412011 412012 412013 42

Source: Estimates based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data.

44


Alabama Per Capita Income Share of U.S. Per Capita Income

1929

1930

1931

1932

1933

1934

1935

1936

1937

1938

1939

1940

1941

1942

1943

1944

1945

1946

1947

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

30

40

50

60

70

80

90(Percent)

1929: U.S. $697 Alabama $318

2013: U.S. $44,543Alabama $36,501


Alabama Per Capita Income Share of U.S. Per Capita Income

1929

1930

1931

1932

1933

1934

1935

1936

1937

1938

1939

1940

1941

1942

1943

1944

1945

1946

1947

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

(Percent)

1929: U.S. $697 Alabama $318

2013: U.S. $44,543Alabama $36,501


Understanding the economy and economic development

Economy = People + Institutions + Property = Private & Public Sectors

Economic Development = Higher or better quality of life

Human Capital Development = Improved education and healthcare

Institutional Development = Better government, companies, culture

Physical Capital Development = Better infrastructure and environment

There is no economic development without education (a public good)

*** Informal education is also important

Pre-Kindergarten to High School (Pure Public Good)

Universities (Largely Public Good)

Vocational and Community Colleges (Mostly Public Good)

Development Policies must be Optimal = Efficient, Fair, Flexible, Sustainable

47


Thank you

Center for Business and Economic ResearchCulverhouse College of Commerce

The University of AlabamaBox 870221

Tuscaloosa, Alabama 35487-0221205.348.6191

http://cber.cba.ua.edu

Serving Alabama Since 1930


ABCITM

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q20

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

47.752.9 51.9 51.2

55.6 55.5 54.257.4 57.6

2013 2014 2015

Inde

x


Business Environment ExpectationsQ2 2015 compared to Q1 2015

Much Worse

Somewhat Worse

Remain the Same

Somewhat Better

Much Better

1.3

17.0

39.7

38.4

3.6

0.4

11.2

45.1

41.1

2.2 Alabama National

National and Alabama Economic Outlook



Sales

Strong DecreaseModerate Decrease

No ChangeModerate Increase

Strong Increase

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

0.912.9

30.450.9

4.9

Strong Decrease

Moderate Decrease

No Change

Moderate Increase

Strong Increase

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

1.3

19.6

34.4

39.7

4.9

Profits



Hiring Plans


Strong Decrease

Moderate Decrease

No Change

Moderate Increase

Strong Increase

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

0.011.2

52.233.5

3.1

Strong DecreaseModerate Decrease

No ChangeModerate Increase

Strong Increase

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

1.311.2

55.429.0

3.1


ABCITM History

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

68.7

31.5

57.6


U.S. and Alabama EconomiesExpectations versus Prior Quarter

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q235

40

45

50

55

60

Alabama

UnitedStates

58.4

56.5

2012 2013 2014 2015


Sales and ProfitsExpectations versus Prior Quarter

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q240

45

50

55

60

65

Sales

Profits

61.5

56.8

2012 2013 2014 2015


Hiring and Capital ExpendituresExpectations versus Prior Quarter

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q242

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

Hiring


57.155.4

2012 2013 2014 2015

Ahmad Ijaz Center for Business and Economic Research Serving Alabama Since 1930 Alabama State Black...

Documents

Transcript of Ahmad Ijaz Center for Business and Economic Research Serving Alabama Since 1930 Alabama State Black...