Aggregate db Week 6 Hacking for Diplomacy
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Transcript of Aggregate db Week 6 Hacking for Diplomacy
AggregateDBNathan | Shutong | Kaya | Chris
12 Interviews
Sponsor: Conflict and Stabilization OperationsPOC: Santiago StockerMentor: Dan SpokojnyPolitics in volatile countries is influenced by ethnic and religious leaders. Determining their location and relative power is a labor intensive and inconsistent process. However, embassy staff - economic, political and public diplomacy regularly meet with leaders to gather this information.
CASE STUDY #1: Revolts Against Oil Companies SITUATIONPolitical unrest in the Delta Region occurred in 2009/2010. Because Nigeria has so many oil wells, there were many controversies over how oil revenues were being distributed nationally.
ACTION Many communities in the Delta did not feel like they were being given their fair share, which led to outbreaks of violence on oil companies (Shell, Chevron). Over 2000 people died.
RESULTSCSO was brought in for 2 years to gather information about how to prevent a similar crisis from happening again. The crisis is still ongoing, but efforts to resolve it include an amnesty and payoff program, where there are still ethnic groups in the Delta receiving stipends to maintain the peace.
How was the information obtained?
Organized / catalogued?
Official or informal
information?
How was it used?
What kind of information was
it?
How were informal leaders
defined?
What more information
could’ve been useful?
CSO “on the ground” went out and interviewed
business leaders.
CSO modelled stakeholder
analysis of all different ethnic
groups and their connection to the oil controversy.
Both. Cables, briefed directly to
embassy. Then, integrated to
amnesty work conducted by
embassy.
Statistical reports on different groups and their stake in the oil revenue
situation.
Public figures who publicly agreed / disagreed with oil
company situation.
US stakeholders are proposing
crushing revolts with military force; not enough info on
which groups to target / not target.
CASE STUDY #2: Gathering Intel on HamasSITUATIONHamas, a terrorist organization, is expanding. But, Hamas is a highly decentralized organization. The leadership structed is based on consensus decision making, so it is extremely difficult to identify who the “leaders” are. In a decentralized organization like Hamas, everyone is a “spokesperson.”
ACTION Peter Lohman, the Desk Officer for Algeria, was responsible for gathering intel on Hamas. Challenge: Officers cannot access the group (too dangerous) so create relationships with indirect contacts and read media reporting of Hamas (not always accurate).
RESULTS2014 Israel-Gaza conflict: Congress passed legislation proving Israel with an additional $225 million in military aid for missile defense. According to Israel: Hamas was weakened. According to Hamas: Israel was repelled from Gaza.
How was the information obtained?
Organized / catalogued?
Official or
informal informati
on?
How was it used? What kind of information
was it?
How were informal leaders
defined?
What more information could’ve been useful?
Interviews with indirect, personally
cultivated contacts. (Friends-
of-friends-of-friends)
Contacts semi-catalogued.
Compiled in a cable and sent
back to Washington.
Both. Washington decides whether or not to
intervene in whatever Hamas
was planning.
Reports on meetings,
future plans, potential terrorist
attacks.
Difficult to define - “everyone is a spokesperson.” Word-of-mouth. Person who has
spoken to the media.
Sometimes finding that one last contact is the
exponential jump you need. Would “kill” for a program
mapping relationships. Even if contacts were helpful, it ⅕
would be a great program.
CASE STUDY #3: SITUATION: Franklin Square Group an influential lobbying firm stated that they would be interested in using such a product to discover the stakeholders in large companies and how decisions are made. It is fairly difficult to determine the decision chain in a company when a sensitive decision or contract is at stake.
ACTION : Follow up in person meeting with Partners December 2nd.
RESULTS
How was the information obtained?
Organized / catalogued?
Official or
informal informati
on?
How was it used? What kind of information
was it?
How were informal leaders
defined?
What more information could’ve been useful?
Phone interview with Franklin
Square group.
Information needs to be organized
with some surefire root information
but approximation or even lists of
educated gueses are interesting
Both When lobbying in washington on
behalf of facebook or google lobby
firms need to get the buyin of many
stakeholders with similar interests
regulation information internet law, data flow policy making.
product team leads, VP level leads, engineer leads.
org tree structure from a decision standbpoint. very difficult to gauge and determine.
Customer Discovery Hypothesis Experiments Results
What actionable missions can embassies and / or bureaus carry out using this information about informal leaders?
Interviewed Peter Lohman, Desk Officer for Algeria. Interviewed Santiago, CSO and asked about 2 years CSO spent in Nigeria.
1. Achieve political amnesty by contacting “moderate” informal leaders. (Oil Companies)
2. Map out “friends-of-friends” between terrorist groups (Hamas)
3. Company leaders contacts to informal leaders
Can we trace at what level decisions are made, regarding embassies, desks and DC, when political crisis occur?
Interviewed Marlin Hardinger, political and economic officer in State since 2002. Served in Turkmen, Moldova, South Sudan, Abuja, and Buhari.
We found that information flows pretty freely between embassies, desks, and bureaus. (See chart on prior slide)
How do FSO’s currently trace networks of informal leaders? How do FSO’s rank the importance of a particular leader / contact?
Steve McDonald. Works at the Wilson Center, doing work on Burundian leadership.
Peter Lohman, Desk Officer for Algeria.
No formal ranking system - contacts are kept in FSO’s personal “rolodex.” Personal relationships are everything in “ranking” a leader.
At FSO’s own discretion.
Foreign National Employe
e(OMS)+
Section Chief
Relies on3-5 yr
FSO3 p.
To manage relationships
Union leaders
Official leaders in gov.
NGO’s
Ethnic leade
r
Daily contact/meetings
7+ yr FSO
5+ p.
Delegates tasks portfolios(p)
New FSO1 p.
Friend
FSO
S/ES request
Un-helpFunc.
Bureau
HelpfulFunc.
Bureau
Inundates w/daily request for more info
Official meetings with highest ranking
Deputy Chief Mission aka
COOusually
(Ambassador)
GATEKEEPERSDOS TIME=$$
SC alerts DCM ofmission critical requests/ changes
No- “Tell your boss to tell my boss”
Country X Desk in
Washington
Boeing political lobbyist
Raw material supplier not cooperating
Charge d'Affaires
CEO of Embassy
DCM communicates main issues charge-D to get regional bureau help
Charge-D passes DCM down regional priorities
7th floor
officialsWhite House
RegionalBureau Officials
USAID in
country
Boeing in
County X
Support
Employs, supportspunishes, joins,exploits?
Edges: Red - Family Black - Negative Blue - NeutralNodes: Yellow - President Red - APC Blue - Lagos State Govern Green - OthersRotimi Akeredolu
On Saturday September 3rd, 2016, Represent the All Progressive Congress (APC) at their primary conducted in Ondo State to represent the party at the forth-coming 2016 elections.
Twitter: @RotimiAkeredoluFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/rotimiaketi/
Rotimi Akeredolu&Simon Lalong
Mr. Lalong formally presented Rotimi Akeredolu, the All Progressives Congress gubernatorial candidate in Ondo, to President Buhari.
CLICK NODES
CLICK EDGES
Beneficiaries
Mission AchievementMission Budget/Costs
Buy-In/Support
Deployment
Value PropositionKey Activities
Key Resources
Key Partners
CSO: Santiago - Writing report about Boko HaramTyler - Analyzing relationship between known members of BH and unclassified actors
Will Meeker - Travels to Nigeria for 2 years to generate contacts for CSO, get Santiago data
Embassy Staff:Caroline: Economic/ Political Officer at small Embassy in stable countryJames/Steve: Economic/ Political Officer at large Embassy in an unstable country Nick: Public Diplomacy Officer at busy Embassy
Executive Secretariat(S/ES)Nick from Secretariat Staff: The Secretary want’s to speak with Monica Geingos in Namibia
1 of 2 Operations Staff on Call: Spends all day summarizing , combining incoming cables
CSO Sponsor: Santiago Stocker
Foreign Nationals(OMS): Office Management Specialists to implement and upkeep central list for long term deployment
Elian Carsenat founder of NamSor- onomastics(surname) analysis software
Mentor: Daniel Spokojny, insights into CSO dynamics
ParseHub
TensorFlow
Database companies(ACLED,GDELT)
lobby companies and evengalist that make introductions
SV companies who are working in a similar space / contract (partnerships)
Beta starts in Nigeria, with Vanguard newspaper(English)
Focus on formal leaders through public sources
Need CSO to continue connecting us upstream w/ former clients and downstream with data sources in field
Continued support from AF staff to differentiate known unknowns from unknown unknowns
Source Aggregation: Gives organizations the ability to identify most important actors in rapidly evolving situations using data mined from a breadth of sources.
Relatable data visualization: ensure people from all backgrounds can analyze and filter relevant data depending on their needs
Information Extraction: perform natural language processing on news articles, twitter and etc to extract categories and information for informal leaders.
Improve CSO’s ability to write relevant reports by giving them tools for passive “granular” data collection w/o Embassy involvementProvide long-term contact management, automation of embassy “check-in”Ability to rapidly provide “S” contact information of any person FSO/Embassies have had official contact with
Information AnalysisKey entities identification
Software EngineeringData collection and storage
Data mining
Network visualization
CSO pre-formatted and edited JSON databases
Previously published unclassified reports commissioned by DOS
Web Crawler API’s
TensorFlow Machine learning API
Nigerian news papersgurdian, sahara Times, Punch, Business day, Vanguard
FIXED:Frontend / backend deployment of app
VARIABLE: Parsehub API Google Compute Engine
Analyze foreign conflicts & Advise relevant parties upstream(7th floor) and downstream to embassy
100% accurate information, but realistically happy with 50%, b/c have time to corroborate with classified sources
Data on ethnic/religious leaders
Data that is current & structured
Current sources too shallow
Best data unstructured, in cables, year old
Santiago Stocker CSO Advanced Analytics Unit(8)
Output data formatted, downloadable and available for further analysis and combination with classified intel
Data-mining provides daily updates, validity based on page ranking
Targeted source scraping means information gets more accurate as # of users and providers increases
Mining searches for personal names
Program can be run continuously, updates daily based on input from internal embassy and external news
Passive connection btwn. CSO in D.C. and FSO Nigeria to share information and contacts gathered from data mining
Embassies too busy to help w/ CSO side-projects
Program can run with passive interaction w/ Embassy
- BS/BA + MA in International Policy
- Thesis work used LOTS of data
- Wants to make CSO relevant- Believes in power of data to
solve international problems
- Needs worldwide knowledge base b/c impossible to know next
r equest - Skeptical of data provided by
embassies’ political offices
Connection that doesn’t require constant requests/ coordination with DCM
Understand & analyze domestic, labor market in Nigeria, meet with cooperative leaders and report progress, strikes developments in weekly cables/ SPOT reports
100% accurate information, but realistically would be happy with 20% lead success, works @ 10% right now
Phone number of reliable informant in distant villageLong term tracking of contacts, especially as known leads progress upwards hierarchy
Predecessor left nice handover, but too old after move, industry changes quick
Town with protest three days drive away, through desert
Marlin- 8 year FSO, currently Economic Officer in Lagos- Labor Portfolio(5)
Hierarchy based on # mentions, info reliable contacts inside companies
Visualization of relationships btwn. companies, individuals, unions
Targeted source scraping means knowing which Labor Unions marched together, signals coop., bring together @Embassy soon?
Nodes can be sorted by region, help FSO get closer to right contact
Program runs beyond rotations, eliminates need for 40 page paper handover reports, 4 months old
Provide economic FSO new contact, % “helpful” ranking, based on input of known contacts, better diplomacy
Protocol Foreign National has excel spreadsheet w/ 4000+ unorganized names
Nodes bigger or smaller depending on cross-reference embassy visits, mentions in cables/newspapers
- MA+, intense study foreign policy
- Rigorous entrance testing, but now jobs based on past-work
- Speaks 4+ languages- Believes in prioritizing
interactionw/ “traditional” contacts
- Asked by DCM to join Nigeria team based on post-election work in Afghanistan
- Receives many “urgent” requests for data/info daily, knows which ones to answer/ignore/forward to DCM
Actionable suggestions of contacts means Marlin missing link
Learn actualities of diplomacy @ first embassy by working election portfolio
100% accurate information, but would accept 10%,
Understanding of hierarchy @ Embassy, who Section Chief thinks is most important/why
Ability to see most recent interaction w/ certain contact
FSO tests did not mention 3AM DCM phone calls
Doesn’t know which requests can be ignored, has CSO asking questions about knowledge after 3 months
Bryce K..- 1 Year Political FSO reflecting on first year @ Embassy w/ Election Portfolio
Better able to tell if contact is BS’ing about connections, mining shows if there documented ways X knows Y
Huge gain: Able to look at information in organized fashion w/o feeling embarrassed to ask for help
Hierarchy based on # mentions means initial category beyond word of mouth about priority of contact
Before each meeting new FSO can look at map, mined data to make conversation/trip relevant, productive
Network mapping to help new FSO understand who embassy knows and how they fit into greater framework in country
Weekly excursions helpful, but only if k value=5
Access to last FSOs network greatly helps because starting k higher
- BS in International Policy, 27 y.o. generation of FSO uses iPhone
- Thesis work used LOTS of data- Speaks 2 languages, but feels
at home @ combinator in country
- Section chief gives lots travel $$, but learning statecraft like hose
- Solves a problem only to show SC and have them say “I already knew this, and here’s 40 more pages @”
- Interested in proving himself, finding niche in a massive/ competitive organization that now will only look @ previous work, not test scores
Embassy work done @ school-yard, doesn’t have kid
Reduced requests from “J” bureaus means less time spent on busy work “delegated” by SC and DCM
Awareness Interest consideration Purchase Keep unbundling up-sell cross-sell referral
Activity & people
-Franklin Square-Facebook
-Matt T.-Kara (FB)-Tom (google)
-CSO-embassy FSO-DoD
? -evangelists-promoters
Metrics follow up calls or pinging us without us pinging them
-willing to give time
-asks for pricing/quote-requests deployment meeting
-payment in account
-are they actively involved weekly basis?
?? -hardware bundle -API bundle -multilocation
?? -makes a direct intro
GET KEEP GROW