After the Cold War
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After the Cold War
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The Post-Cold War World:3 periods
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First Period,1991-2000: Triumph of the West Triumph of global capitalism Russia’s transition crisis The Unipolar Moment: US hegemony at its peak The Western expansion to the post-communist East Formation of the global neoliberal regime
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Second Period, 2001-2008: US Hegemony Tested The Islamist challenge and the Bush response Development of a multipolar system Russia’s resurgence Relative decline of US hegemony
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Third Period, 2008- The global economic crisis Creeping bankruptcy and political stalemate in the US The crisis of European integration The rise of China as a global power Reset in Russia’s relations with the West
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Comparing 1917 and 1991: The Romanov Empire collapsed as a result of a revolution,
the elites were overthrown and replaced by new elites as a result of the civil war
The Communist elites moved to divide the empire to recast themselves as leaders of independent nation-states – or of units of the Russian Federation
A key reason why the Soviet empire made a relatively quiet exit was because key Soviet elites saw a future for themselves after communism
Transition to capitalism would enable most of them to maintain and even enhance their power and privilege
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Having dissolved the empire, the new elites have been engaged in competition and cooperation between themselves to: secure their control, reform their political-economic systems, find new places in the regional and global orders
THIS STRUGGLE OVER THE IMPERIAL SPOILS IS THE ESSENCE OF THE NEW INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS IN EURASIA
Some of them stick together (RF, CIS, GUUAM) Others go their own separate ways, look for new
partnerships Meanwhile, many other states are exploring opportunities to
expand their influence in Eurasia
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Contraction of Russian power
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NATO enlargement, 1949-2004
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Main changes in Russia’s international role following the end of the Cold War:
1. Reduction of the main parametres of Russia’s power Territorial losses Economic depression The military crisis Ideological neutralization
after being a key part of the Global Left for most of the 20th century, Russia joined the Global (neoliberal) Right
2. Russian society was opened to the impact of global forces with minimal regulation by the state
3. Political affiliation with the West
4. Reluctant acceptance of US hegemony
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Post-Soviet Russia was no longer a problem for the West in the Cold War sense: Russia’s abandonment of its Soviet mode became a key
enabling factor for the formation of the global neoliberal regime
RUSSIA AS A “NORMAL COUNTRY”: capitalist, cautious, status quo, pragmatic, with limited ambitions, seeking friends everywhere, wary of making enemies
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RUSSIA AS A PROBLEM AFTER THE COLD WAR The transition crisis: dangerous side-effects of reforms:
The nuclear risks Possibility of a totalitarian backlash Potential for civil war Tensions with new neighbours, attempts to maintain a
sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space Russia as a US client: no longer counterbalancing the US
(not a problem for the US, but a problem for many other states) – or:
Russia as a member of coalitions to counterbalance US hegemony (a problem for the US)
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US objectives vis-à-vis Russia Encourage Russia’s transition to capitalism Prevent Russia from acting as a counterbalance to US Control Russia’ behaviour to keep it congruent with US
interests Expand US influence into the post-Soviet spacePerspectives outside the US: Many countries would like Russia to play the role of a non-
hostile, but relatively independent, actor in international politics
Most Russians have the same perspective
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The economy GDP, PPP - $2.2 trln. (No.8 in the world)
Canada – $1.33 trln. GDP per capita - $16,000
Canada - $39,400 Real growth rate – 5.6% in 2008, -7.9% in 2009, 4% in 2010
Canada – 0.5% in 2008, -2.5% in 2009, 3.1% in 2010
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US National Intelligence Council forecast for the year 2025, unveiled in October 2008, described Russia as
one of four rising centers of international power: “In terms of size, speed, and directional flow, the transfer of global wealth and economic power now under way — roughly from West to East — is without precedent in modern history . . . . No other countries are projected to rise to the level of China, India, or Russia, and none is likely to match their individual global clout. . . . Growth projections for Brazil, Russia, India, and China (the BRICs) indicate they will collectively match the original G-7’s share of global GDP by 2040-2050.”
“Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World”. Washington: National Intelligence Council, November 2008 - http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html , pp. vi, vii
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In the 2000s, Russian state capacity was partially restored Putinism has consolidated Russian capitalism, protected it
from internal challenges, and returned Russia to the rank of major international actors
But huge problems remain unsolved, while new problems have been created
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The Russian economy needs major modernization to be competitive
The new Russian state is in many ways dysfunctional and needs major reforms to meet Russia’s challenges
The Russian society is deeply split by social inequality Continued resurgence requires new policies and reforms
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The structure of Russia’s exports: 93% raw materials
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Russian elite interests
The oligarchy – the upper crust of the new capitalist class, product of the post-communist transformation Most important sources of wealth: oil, gas and arms Dependent on the West, primarily the US Dependent on the Russian state, wants to rationalize it Needs traditional foreign policy assets of the USSR Assertive in the political sphere Seeks economic opportunities worldwide Intertwined with state bureaucracy
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The bureaucrats The “enforcers” (siloviki) – military and security elites
Determined to get upper hand over the oligarchs, get their property
Institutionally and traditionally suspicious of the West Interested in a restoration of a stronger and more
authoritarian Russian state, but on a capitalist basis Federal civilian bureaucracy
Interested in whatever protects and increases their power
Regional bureaucracies, regional foreign policy interests
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The national bourgeoisie Well below the ranks of the oligarchy Gets little from the West Feels dominated by the oligarchs Is nationalist and protectionist
The politicians 1990s: liberals, communists, nationalists, “United
Russia” – becoming the ruling party under Putin The Westernizer-Eurasianist divide – and synthesis
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Russian threat perceptions Security – internal and external Control of resources Russia’s defence capability Technological lag behind the West Negative demography
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The dominant trends in Russian foreign policy thinking Relations with the West are top priority No desire to confront the West Recognition of Western concerns
But also: Primacy of national interests, emphasis on independence Claim for “special interests” in the post-Soviet space Multivector foreign policy – active engagement with other
international actors Pragmatism Primacy of trade and investment issues Readiness for dialog, for development of joint solutions to
problems
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Globescan polls, BBC, the 2000s: Steady improvements in Russia’s image in global public
opinion – until 2009. The 2008 poll: Russia’s influence in world affairs?
37% - “mainly positive” 34% - “mainly negative.”
US influence in world affairs? 35% - “mainly positive” 47% - “mainly negative”
Germany: 56% positive, 18% negative China: 47% positive, 32% negative http://www.globescan.com/news_archives/bbccntryview08/
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http://www.globescan.com/news_archives/bbccntryview09/
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Globescan poll of Russians, April 2009: http://surveys.globescan.com/bbc_russia09/
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Russia’s military budget Mid-1980s – defence spending accounted for 15-17% of
Soviet GDP Massive cuts following dissolution of USSR in 1991 Steady rise since 2000 – by 15-25% a year In 2006, a new state armaments program, which will span
2007-2015, was adopted Price tag: 4.9 trillion rubles (US$186 billion). 63% is to be allocated for the procurement of modern
weapons and equipment 27% towards defense research and development. 2010 – defence spending accounted for 2.84% of Russia’s
GDP Plan for 2013 – 3.39% Norm approved in 2000 – 3.5%
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Topol-M, Russia’s new mobile ICBM
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A Tu-95 over the Arctic
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Russian infantry in Georgia, August 2008
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A Russian warship in the Caribbean
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Russia is buying a Mistral amphibious assault ship from France
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NATO Russia
Tanks 12,332 22,950
APCs 31,420 25,080
Submarines 84 66
Principal surface combatants
194 57
Bomber/fighter ground attack
1,905 1,648
Deployable military personnel
3,579 mln. 1,200 mln. (+ active reserve of 0.75 mln.)
Military spending, 2010
$1,085 trln. (3.5% of GDP)
$56 bln.
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Status of World Nuclear Forces 2010*
Country StrategicNon-
StrategicOperationa
lTotal
Inventory
Russia 2,600 2,050a 4,650 12,000b
United States 1,968 500c 2,468d 9,600e
France 300 n.a. ~300 300f
China 180 ? ~180 240g
United Kingdom 160 n.a. <160 225h
Israel 80 n.a. n.a. 80i
Pakistan 70-90 n.a. n.a. 70-90i
India 60-80 n.a. n.a. 60-80i
North Korea <10 n.a. n.a. <10j
Total: ~5,400k ~2,550k ~7,700k ~22,600k
* All numbers are estimates and further described in the Nuclear Notebook in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, and the nuclear appendix in the SIPRI Yearbook. Additional reports are published on the FAS Strategic Security Blog. Unlike those publications, this table is updated continuously as new information becomes available. Current update: May 26, 2010.
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Russia’s foreign policy compass West - US, EU, NATO East – China, India, Japan South - the Muslim world North - the Arctic
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Russia in Europe
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Russia in Asia
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Russia on the Pacific
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Russia in the Arctic