African Development Bank Group. Outline of the presentation 1.The Bank Group 2.Africa’s growth...

African Development Bank Group

Outline of the presentation

1. The Bank Group

2. Africa’s growth prospects

3. Investing in Africa

4. Benchmarking Nigeria


1 The Bank Group



Bank GroupTerm referring collectively to:

African Development Bank

African Development Fund

Nigeria Trust Fund

May also include other funds managed by the Bank

MANDATE – African Development Bank


Established in 1964 by Agreement between member states

Mandate: Contribute to the sustainable

economic development and social progress of its regional (African)

member countries

Fulfills mandate through financing of projects, mobilization of

resources, technical assistance, cooperation

Membership:

Currently 77 countries with 3 finalizing membership

Membership Composition:

53 African Countries and 24 Non- African

Countries

Provides financing through Loans,

Guarantees & Equity Investments for

sovereign and non-sovereign transactions

Bank Group Membership


Asia

4 member countriesShareholding: 7%

Africa


Europe


Middle East


North & South America

4 member countries Shareholding: 11%

Bank Group loan and grant approvals and disbursements, 2001-2010 (UA millions)


2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Loan and Grant Approvals

Disbursements

2 Africa’s growth prospects


Annual average real GDP growth rates by regions (in %) 2000-2010

Advanced economies

Latin America and the Caribbean

World

Central and Eastern Europe

Middle East

Africa

Developing Asia

0 2 4 6 8 10

1.6

3.4

3.7

4.0

4.8

5.3

8.3


Evolution of annual average real GDP growth rates by regions


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16(%)

Africa

World

China

India

Nigeria

Projected real GDP per Capita growth rates in 2011


Africa’s GDP per Capita growth prospects

2000 2010 2020 2030-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

Africa Central Africa East Africa North Africa Southern Africa West Africa


Sector contributions to growth in Africa, 2000-2009

Agriculture9.8%

Industry37.4%

Services52.8%

Services: 1. Trade, Hotels & Restaurants, 2. Transport & Communications, 3. Banking & Insurance, 4. Real Estate & Dwellings, 5. Public Administration & Defense 6. Education , Health, Domestic & Other Services

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing

Industry: 1. Mining & Quarrying, 2. Manufacturing, 3. Small Scale Industry & Handicrafts, 4. Electricity & Water, Construction


Share of Traditional Partners (TPs) and Emerging Partners (EPs) in Africa’s total trade

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

TPs EPs


Investment, aid and remittances inflows to Africa (1990-2010)


1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80US $ Billions

FDI

ODARecorded remit-tances

Portfolio debt & private debt

FDI inflows to Africa (US $ mn)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Chin

a

World

China

World to Nigeria


Africa’s governance progress


Demographic growth evolution

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

West Africa*

Nigeria

Southern Africa

North Africa

East Africa

Central Africa


A growing economically active population


Continued rapid growth in the size of the economically active population (men and women 15-64 years of age), at an average of around 3.5% per annum, will lead to an absolute increase in Africa’s working age population of around 1.87 billion.

Around 74% of Africans will be of working age in 2060.

Human resources strongly impact on overall factor productivity.

Africa’s age distribution


0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

150 100 50 0 50 100 150

Africa - Age Pyramid in 2010

Male Female

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

150 100 50 0 50 100 150

Africa - Age Pyramid in 2040

Male Female

Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population), most recent year


Under five mortality rates total per 1000, 2010


Growing middle class & urban sectors


Distribution of African population by selected classes


2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 20600

10

20

30

40

50

60 1st poverty line (<$1.25) 2nd poverty line ($1.25-$2)Middle class

Real estate


20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Egypt annual current GDP real estate Index

01/03/2

009

01/06/2

009

01/09/2

009

01/12/2

009

01/03/2

010

01/06/2

010

01/09/2

010

01/12/2

010

01/03/2

0110

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Nigeria quarterly real GDP industry real estate

Great potential in natural and biological resources


9.5% of the world oil reserves and close to 8% of gas reserves.

Highest reserve of agricultural land: 807 million ha.

Well positioned to embark on a low carbon growth and development path.

Unique fauna and flora.

Investments in ICT


The 2010 ICT broadband penetration estimated at 7 per cent of the population is projected to rise to 99 per cent of the population in 2060.

Win-win area of collaboration between Africa and foreign investors.

Catalytic role for market integration and competitiveness.

The Need for substantial investments


Massive injections of capital will be needed to bridge the huge infrastructure gap.

Africa’s Infrastructure Stock


Electricity generation

(x10)

Electricity access

Road density (x10)

Paved roads

Fixed telephone

access

Mobile telephone

access (x10)

Improved water access

Improved sanitation

access

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

5638

2

2840 45

69

40

122

70

36 38

147

59

88

59

Africa

Electricity generation is measured in kilo watt hours per capita; road density in kilometers per 100 square kilometers of land; paved roads in percentage of to-tal roads; electricity, improved water and improved sanitation access in popu-lation percentage; fixed telephone, mobile telephone and internet access in users per 1000 people.

3 Investing in Africa


Investing in Africa


Access to finance needs to be addressed in order to unlock Africa’s potential for a sustained and inclusive growth.

Africa’s Billionaires


Africa’s total billionaires numbered 7 in 2006 and 11 in 2010.

This year there are 14 on the 2011 Forbes Rich list made up of two Nigerians, 4 South Africans and 8 Egyptians.

Their main sectors of activity are: sugar, flour and cement, precious stones, construction, luxury goods, telecommunications, mining, cotton trading and banking.

Credit to the private sector in selected regions (% of GDP)


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

10

20

30

40

50

60

70A

s pe

rcen

tage

of G

DP

Africa

Developing Asia

Developing America

Developing Europe

Deposit accounts per 1,000 adults in selected African countries, 2009


Madagasca

rNiger

Liberia

Burundi

Ethiopia

Côte d'Ivoire

Zimbabwe

Mali

Togo

RwandaKenya

Gambia,The

Algeria

South Afri

ca

Cape Verde

Mauriti

us0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Private equity funds raised in Africa by region, 2006-2010


2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

200

400

600

800

1,000

North Africa Central Africa East Africa West AfricaSouthern Africa

Sampling of Africa private equity investments 2008-2010


Market capitalization in major African stock exchanges (2003-2011)


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000Egypt Mauritius Morocco Nigeria Tunisia

Market capitalization in major African stock exchanges (2003-2011)


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

50000100000150000200000250000300000350000400000450000500000550000600000650000700000750000800000

Egypt Mauritius MoroccoNigeria Tunisia South Africa

Prices of African indexes (in USD)


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Mauritius Semdex Index South Africa All Share IndexEgypt EGX30 Morocco MASI IndexTunisia Tunindex Nigeria All Share IndexKenya NSE20

Prices for selected African indexes (in USD)


11/04/2

006

27/06/2

006

12/09/2

006

28/11/2

006

13/02/2

007

01/05/2

007

17/07/2

007

02/10/2

007

18/12/2

007

04/03/2

008

20/05/2

008

05/08/2

008

21/10/2

008

06/01/2

009

24/03/2

009

09/06/2

009

25/08/2

009

10/11/2

009

26/01/2

010

13/04/2

010

29/06/2

010

14/09/2

010

30/11/2

010

15/02/2

011

03/05/2

011

19/07/2

0110

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

South Africa All Share Index Egypt EGX30 Nigeria All Share IndexKenya NSE20

Improving SMEs access to finance through stock markets


Egypt’s Nile Stock Exchange (Nilex) Lower requirements in terms of minimum capital

and number of shares to be offered to the public.

An advisor is nominated to help eligible SMEs prepare their financial statement, comply with the listing rules and complete the initial public offering of their shares.

Improving SMEs access to finance through stock markets (contd.)


South Africa’s AltX A registered advisor is designated to assist SMEs

through the listing process, the initial public offering and to help them maintain their status once listed.

The Directors Induction Programme is a compulsory education program offered to managers on corporate finance, management and governance.

Private credit bureaus in selected African countries


South Africa -Transunion -Experian -Compuscan -XDS

Botswana -TransUnion ITC -CRB Africa -Compuscan Botswana

Namibia -Transunion ITC Namibia -Credit Information Bureau Namibia -Compuscan

Swaziland -ITC Swaziland -Transunion

Mozambique -CRB Africa

Zambia -CRB Africa

Tanzania -CRB Africa

Uganda -CRB Africa -Compuscan Uganda

Rwanda -CRB Africa

Kenya-Credit reference bureau africa limited -Metropol East Africa Ltd -Transunion Kenya

Egypt -I-score

Morocco -Experian

Nigeria -Credit registry corporation CR services LTD nigeria -XDS -Credit reference company

Ghana -XDS Ghana

Malawi -CRB Africa

4 Benchmarking Nigeria


Ease of doing business


South Africa

Tunisia Ghana Egypt Kenya Nigeria Senegal

34

5567

94 98

137

152

Corruption


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Egypt

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

Senegal

South Africa

Tunisia

Human development index in Nigeria vs selected comparators


Senegal Nigeria Ghana Kenya South Africa

Egypt Tunisia

0.41 0.420.47 0.47

0.60 0.62

0.68

School enrolment (Secondary and Tertiary, % Gross) and adult literacy, 2001-2009


34.430.5

62.460.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Nigeria Angola Congo South Africa Togo SSA

%

Secondary enrolment ratio

Tertiary enrolment ratio

Adult literacy

Potential for Diaspora Bonds, 2007


Sout

h A

fric

a

Nig

eria

Gha

na

keny

a

Ethi

opia

Som

alia

Sene

gal

Zim

babw

e

Suda

n

Ang

ola

0

1

2

3

4

US

$ bi

llion

s

Prospects…


THE FUTURE IS PROMISING…

But there is much to be done!

Eye on the future


Access to credit

Job creation

Technical skills building

Infrastructure, infrastructure, infrastructure

(Energy, transportation-air, rail, land, waterways)

Regional integration

Gender

Governance

Acknowledgments


Laureline Pla

Nadim Guelbi

Athanasius Coker

Simon Mizrahi

Desire Vencatachellum

Thank you


African Development Bank Group. Outline of the presentation 1.The Bank Group 2.Africa’s growth...

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